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Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — November 2013
- Thread starter Antar
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This will (probably) never happen. 3.41% comes from the likelihood that you will have a 50% chance of seeing a Pokemon in every 20 battles. UU gets more powerful each generation, often being more comparable to the previous generation's OU than its UU. This may become even more true this generation if Politoed, Ninetales, and Hippowdon all become UU.
Lowering the cutoff would also increase the number of Pokemon in any given tier that are subpar choices in OU, mainly thanks to being outclassed. BW Jolteon is a good example, as there were few reasons to use it over Thundurus-T, so it was generally considered a subpar option. Lowering the cutoff would only make this more common. (Why would I use Noivern, for example, in OU when I could use any of the other 6 dragons in the tier?)
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I do understand where you are coming from. I was here when we were deciding where the cut-off would be. Infact, one of the things that was looked at was the size of the OU tier in previous generations, compared to the overall pool of Pokemon. I can't remember the exact values (and they've adjusted the tiers a bit since, so I can't check) but I think Gen I OU was about 15 (so about 10% of the overall pool), Gen II was about 25 (so about 10% of the overall pool again), Gen III was 30-something at the time iirc (so a bit less than 10% of the overall pool). We had a formula, with variable "n", and we had to decide on what "n" would be to determine where the cut off would be, or how popular a Pokemon should be to be considered "OU". In the end 20 was chosen for "n". Something I agreed with, since at the time it gave us an OU size closest to 50 (19 and under would've been less, 21 and over would've been more), and that was fairly consistent with the trends in previous generations (not to mention 20, 50 and 10 are all "nice" numbers, which isn't important from a statistical point of view, but it's convenient). (NOTE: This was the reasoning of myself and various others, but there were also other reasons why people decided on "20"). Of course, the size of OU did shrink a bit during Gen IV, I think ending up in the low 40's by the end of the generation.
So, my point is, whenever this suggestion is brought up, people usually say the cut-off can't be changed because the formula we used is set in stone, but OU didn't have to be based around 1 in 20 battles. Smogon decided the definition of OU. We could've easily chosen 19 or 23 or something. It was completely up to Smogon at the time, and therefore it's not like it couldn't be changed from generation to generation. It's not a value that's ingrained into nature. It's not like we're trying to change the value of pi.
Another thing brought up was that if each usage tier covers a larger amount of Pokemon, then by the time we get down to NU there'll be a larger number of the overall pool or Pokemon that are "relevent" in one of the metagames. In Gen V there were hundreds of Pokemon that didn't see significant usage in any of the four tiers.
However, although I do understand the reasoning for the OU cut-off to be lowered, I don't think it will be changed, or even needs to be. It was suggested in Gen V and the decision was made not to change it. Also, over the past couple of generations there's already been a lot of complaining about certain less viable Pokemon managing to hang around in the 40's and have OU status, so lowering the cut-off in Gen V (or this gen) wouldn't have helped with that at all. It would just give more less viable OU Pokemon included in the tier for people to whine about.
So, to sum up. I understand what you're saying, but the cut-off will stay the same. It won't be changed (and doesn't need to be).
Under the way we currently calculate tiers, UU does get more powerful each generation. However, they used to actually try and make UU a similar power to the previous generation's UU (that was achieved by having ever-larger BL lists each gen). Something which was changed mid-Gen IV.
Here's a thread discussing all this in Gen V: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/tier-list-underusage-cutoff.85957/
There were numerous discussions from Gen IV on this too (some outside of Policy Review for standard members to discuss too), but I can't find any of them atm.
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Compared to Gen 5, has the usage of Stone Edge increased (due to Talonflame's existence)? It would seem that in Gen 5, one's answer to Volcarona was a Scarfcomp EQ or Stone Edge or a rain-boosted Hydro Pump or Surf from Keldeo. Normally, I would avoid using Stone Edge (I use Scald on my Greninja instead of Hydro Pump) but it seems that an 80% chance for an OHKO is the best proposition if you lost the Battle of the Rocks.
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I would assume since the switch was not successful it would count as a KO for the Pokemon who used Pursuit, don't quote me on that though
So when everyone stops wanting to try out their new toys, things settle down, and Kyogre and some of the others are in the regular meta game again, do you think Xerneas will still be at the top of ubers?
That doesn't any make sense since you can obviously use UU and even NU pokemon in OU if you want. They are just not so good there. Reducing the cut off threshold would not increase variety in OU since people are still going to use the top threats, it would only make UU less varied because more things would be banned from it.
Also, borderline is when a pokemon becomes banned from UU but still doesn't get used a lot in OU, right? Because I always found it interesting that banning something from OU made a pokemon Uber but banning it from UU did not make it OU.
Just did a calculations to determine which are the biggest revenge killers/defensive threats on current metagame by using check/counter statistics from moveset statistics. If I have understood correctly only Pokemons that are switched on these Pokemons directly / after something has been killed is counted in these statistics so for example Chatot beating Blissey that switches in does not get counted in these statistics. So basically I just made a weighted sum and counted for every Pokemon counter values for every Pokemon when it appears in Checks/Counter section. The weight is the check% * usage of the countered Pokemon. So this should give information for what is the biggest combined defensive/revenge killing threat. Here are the values normalized so that the highest value is 100:
Looking the results, it was not very surprising to find Kangaskhan at the top place, but how far behind it leaves other Pokemons is rather impressive, especially since Kangaskhan is mainly a sweeper and it still outshinies everything in its "sidejob". Also I was quite surprised about the volcarona at 2nd place but after that there I don't think there are very surprising Pokemon at the top except maybe Conkeldurr (4th) and Breloom(5th). Both have strong priorities though and Breloom probably causes a lot of switches due to Spore so not that surprising but a little unexpected that they are above Talonflame imo. Here is also a little comparison to 5th gen statistics where the same calculations produce following top20:
When comparing to 6th gen statistic nothing seems very surprising. Here also the difference between the top threats are not so big which is again probably not so surprising considering the sheer power of Kangaskhan in current metagame.
Code:
0)Kangaskhan 100
1)Volcarona 54.439578771428955
2)Aegislash 46.382468033828026
3)Azumarill 46.23143906695184
4)Conkeldurr 40.65012975284508
5)Breloom 40.216080787591665
6)Gliscor 40.073528835607114
7)Mawile 37.713311770531206
8)Pinsir 37.34692159980917
9)Talonflame 36.75035476916709
10)Mamoswine 35.765583750136564
11)Blissey 35.666816181278186
12)Gyarados 34.81503482171289
13)Heracross 32.891766645450566
14)Chansey 32.34797273890988
15)Quagsire 31.71271680462642
16)Cloyster 30.850988944232803
17)Weavile 30.524887076469263
18)Venusaur 29.81659781450974
19)Florges 29.597738493180632
20)Scizor 28.898466255248472
21)Lucario 28.27001233914167
22)Clefable 27.922821956809106
23)Sylveon 27.813519741639297
24)Pyroar 27.677155646985675
25)Bisharp 27.291676438383988
26)Aerodactyl 27.156098428994284
27)Charizard 26.833716418948367
28)Medicham 26.087781893351334
29)Togekiss 25.4970865020832
30)Slowbro 24.70174428666991
31)Donphan 24.616498737980255
32)Chesnaught 24.443818062538227
33)Chandelure 24.164848766668896
34)Garchomp 23.966494229082418
35)Snorlax 23.55903054604722
36)Sigilyph 23.440663732896795
37)Dragonite 22.400540477779657
38)Tyranitar 22.1978859724107
39)Houndoom 22.13731982474283
40)Trevenant 21.5371577725226
41)Metagross 21.22870483357345
42)Malamar 19.99336681955494
43)Excadrill 19.800074247911454
44)Avalugg 18.611977527493
45)Zygarde 18.502655766399673
46)Delphox 18.111138329321534
47)Gardevoir 17.689259667255012
48)Goodra 17.1251482266529
49)Alakazam 16.88176436768689
50)Greninja 16.500207441018752
51)Starmie 15.652302581416794
52)Roserade 15.43512441059885
53)Absol 15.41075825408111
54)Ferrothorn 15.381362704199251
55)Skarmory 15.109326190641129
56)Scrafty 14.902798455050592
57)Diggersby 14.38648081238908
58)Ninetales 14.222992809624705
59)Tangrowth 13.278135400105267
60)Hawlucha 13.083833388928666
61)Blastoise 12.959061310589771
62)Magnezone 12.89147638936423
63)Gogoat 12.887841357940056
64)Gengar 12.49432553615531
65)Barbaracle 12.312310476853954
66)Hippowdon 12.219854346367399
67)Blaziken 11.182787395852724
68)Ditto 10.949183709752717
69)Machamp 10.50187371937587
70)Rhyperior 10.311302635674652
71)Nidoking 10.133883031882107
72)Zapdos 9.720236954532885
73)Moltres 9.332578276333841
74)Aggron 8.941627482006352
75)Reuniclus 8.758117494262192
76)Espeon 8.725788256334504
77)Abomasnow 8.69279742218926
78)Clawitzer 8.560756975100277
79)Umbreon 8.285423708033631
80)Tyrantrum 8.183185135864406
81)Sableye 8.078337168720491
82)Spiritomb 7.952757098876517
83)Magmortar 7.688816872662543
84)Arcanine 7.629653988509044
85)Rhydon 7.0300123475440515
86)Slurpuff 7.003436498084787
87)Kabutops 6.94877231335052
88)Mandibuzz 6.775671109824604
89)Relicanth 6.7649179564911375
90)Honchkrow 6.643218663661091
91)Carracosta 6.616628287089843
92)Vaporeon 6.44841971087832
93)Gigalith 6.429581090458664
94)Amoonguss 6.175943823756426
95)Salamence 6.142018764334477
96)Kecleon 6.0526704947359455
97)Drapion 5.774893373145522
98)Electivire 5.751723040749925
99)Toxicroak 5.524516350170493
100)Ludicolo 5.238276284980056
101)Manectric 5.154749555684089
102)Hydreigon 5.10685370630015
103)Cinccino 4.731368838205283
104)Leafeon 4.6573861932637906
105)Lilligant 4.643202379600665
106)Froslass 4.277758500139
107)Shedinja 4.184335419029232
108)Noivern 4.183732460670873
109)Torkoal 4.044308561856594
110)Gastrodon 4.00913089618558
111)Crobat 3.951517931594069
112)Doublade 3.903235311075477
113)Chatot 3.8436046909774646
114)Steelix 3.640896886282325
115)Krookodile 2.95856616750116
116)Haxorus 2.848485679053051
117)Aromatisse 2.626373254797757
118)Carbink 2.5551425014847684
119)Alomomola 2.505037220540042
120)Klefki 2.4518396946101197
121)Vivillon 2.4196311832825916
122)Exploud 2.2743629016353797
123)Tentacruel 2.238465977454857
124)Gallade 2.2224502206257113
125)Jolteon 1.8660981302772701
126)Muk 1.7560630320829298
127)Galvantula 1.610037583296924
128)Yanmega 1.526235038100663
129)Dragalge 1.4056711499241947
130)Crawdaunt 0.6046983785840095
131)Ampharos 0.556473396152173
132)Smeargle 0.24059839099633043
133)Politoed 0.049739356785439046Looking the results, it was not very surprising to find Kangaskhan at the top place, but how far behind it leaves other Pokemons is rather impressive, especially since Kangaskhan is mainly a sweeper and it still outshinies everything in its "sidejob". Also I was quite surprised about the volcarona at 2nd place but after that there I don't think there are very surprising Pokemon at the top except maybe Conkeldurr (4th) and Breloom(5th). Both have strong priorities though and Breloom probably causes a lot of switches due to Spore so not that surprising but a little unexpected that they are above Talonflame imo. Here is also a little comparison to 5th gen statistics where the same calculations produce following top20:
Code:
0)Volcarona 100.0
1)Heatran 79.67063500833208
2)Conkeldurr 68.79282281815158
3)Garchomp 63.83712216213566
4)Dragonite 63.61589212217449
5)Weavile 61.88158338132663
6)Toxicroak 58.470272114646185
7)Breloom 57.89255294057381
8)Starmie 54.95470477969308
9)Gyarados 52.410641987677735
10)Terrakion 50.57170423856838
11)Salamence 48.89181918340736
12)Ferrothorn 46.13466995087659
13)Chandelure 45.812858670676995
14)Ninetales 45.07177139449622
15)Cloyster 44.5386236083649
16)Mamoswine 44.51391889099865
17)Alakazam 43.924667328100085
18)Venusaur 40.31112717452659
19)Porygon2 39.37131509764575
20)Lucario 38.85787586407076When comparing to 6th gen statistic nothing seems very surprising. Here also the difference between the top threats are not so big which is again probably not so surprising considering the sheer power of Kangaskhan in current metagame.
How is Custap Berry being used on Skarmory when it isn't available yet?
RU and NU are not determined by OU stats. A Pokemon falls to RU if it doesn't get enough usage in UU, and it falls to NU if doesn't get enough usage in RU.
If I'm following what you wrote, then yes, that's correct. If X dies while opponent's Y is on the field, Y gets a point in favor of being a counter for X. However, if X died from a U-Turn or (I believe) residual damage after a switch, then Y does not get the kill (if I coded it correctly, then the Pokemon that switched out gets a "U-Turn KO," which isn't counted towards check/counter stats at all).
You're either looking at the Pokebank stats--where all items were considered released--there was a mistake in PS, or Custap is indeed obtainable in X&Y (possibly through berry breeding).
Anyway, I finally got around to writing that Mega stats script. Below are the weighted usage stats for on how many teams Pokemon X appears with an X-ite as its item:
Pokebank OU:
Code:
Kangaskhan 13.66529%
Gengar 9.21951%
Lucario 7.70874%
Scizor 4.85764%
Pinsir 4.63256%
Mawile 4.27968%
Charizard 3.94471%
Tyranitar 3.28990%
Venusaur 3.16426%
Gyarados 2.91416%
Garchomp 2.22640%
Absol 2.12086%
Alakazam 2.09645%
Blastoise 1.92044%
Aggron 1.41830%
Blaziken 1.41616%
Ampharos 1.08904%
Banette 0.96058%
Aerodactyl 0.70961%
Abomasnow 0.56520%Pre-bank OU:
Code:
Kangaskhan 14.54347%
Gengar 10.52414%
Lucario 6.59338%
Scizor 5.09170%
Mawile 4.96607%
Charizard 4.31939%
Tyranitar 3.73794%
Pinsir 3.69467%
Garchomp 3.69296%
Venusaur 3.49329%
Alakazam 3.29020%
Gyarados 3.09914%
Blastoise 2.64608%
Absol 2.04608%
Blaziken 1.76709%
Aggron 1.71213%
Ampharos 1.04145%
Banette 0.94939%
Aerodactyl 0.89976%
Abomasnow 0.61477%Pokebank Ubers:
Code:
Mewtwo 14.38022%
Blaziken 12.02317%
Scizor 4.70871%
Gengar 4.47150%
Kangaskhan 3.87404%
Lucario 2.98102%
Charizard 1.34180%
Garchomp 1.16243%
Tyranitar 1.10849%
Mawile 0.98216%
Alakazam 0.84736%
Absol 0.82924%
Venusaur 0.80220%
Aggron 0.74847%
Blastoise 0.70818%
Gyarados 0.70312%
Banette 0.67282%
Pinsir 0.63264%
Aerodactyl 0.30709%
Abomasnow 0.26468%
Ampharos 0.22871%Pre-bank Ubers:
Code:
Blaziken 23.98555%
Kangaskhan 9.80673%
Mewtwo 9.11517%
Gengar 8.41085%
Scizor 6.09553%
Garchomp 5.34032%
Lucario 5.21209%
Charizard 5.17936%
Tyranitar 3.37227%
Venusaur 3.21900%
Alakazam 2.83488%
Mawile 2.41049%
Blastoise 2.35640%
Gyarados 1.79663%
Aggron 1.79516%
Absol 1.29672%
Pinsir 1.11067%
Aerodactyl 0.83121%
Ampharos 0.82381%
Abomasnow 0.75988%
Banette 0.51721%Pokebank Doubles:
Code:
Kangaskhan 10.48143%
Mawile 6.07691%
Gengar 5.33285%
Tyranitar 4.21858%
Garchomp 3.99755%
Scizor 3.87853%
Lucario 3.64348%
Abomasnow 2.44428%
Blaziken 2.40476%
Ampharos 2.36753%
Venusaur 2.31849%
Gyarados 2.26187%
Alakazam 2.17223%
Charizard 1.78345%
Aggron 1.71527%
Aerodactyl 1.69488%
Blastoise 1.52798%
Banette 1.41300%
Absol 0.85674%
Pinsir 0.84408%
Mewtwo 0.04576%(I assume Mewtwo was temporarily unreleased..?)
Pre-bank Doubles:
Code:
Kangaskhan 10.53092%
Mawile 8.84385%
Gengar 6.95682%
Garchomp 4.63548%
Scizor 4.42127%
Lucario 3.78552%
Tyranitar 3.66604%
Gyarados 3.55743%
Venusaur 3.49153%
Blaziken 3.17773%
Alakazam 2.74562%
Abomasnow 2.70377%
Charizard 2.69587%
Aggron 2.33820%
Blastoise 2.33568%
Ampharos 2.26857%
Aerodactyl 1.49285%
Banette 1.14927%
Pinsir 1.06594%
Absol 0.85803%
Mewtwo 0.02813%VGC 2014:
Code:
Kangaskhan 20.61688%
Mawile 16.67104%
Scizor 6.61170%
Gengar 6.05223%
Tyranitar 5.96901%
Venusaur 5.02209%
Abomasnow 4.89326%
Gyarados 4.74741%
Garchomp 3.66578%
Blastoise 3.35088%
Lucario 2.83228%
Aerodactyl 2.55001%
Ampharos 1.97039%
Charizard 1.67272%
Banette 1.63478%
Aggron 1.43072%
Pinsir 1.02100%
Alakazam 0.84716%
Absol 0.38144%
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There must have been some mistake. I was looking at pre-Bank. If Serebii is to be believed, its not available yet.
TikiShades, If you find that Custap is still legal in the current metagames, report it as a Showdown bug.
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