"It is said that Mega Sableye uses the jewel as a powerful defensive tool in battle. From behind the shelter of the jewel, it can readily exploit the opponent’s weaknesses and take advantage of any openings. It is said that the jewel hardens into such strength that no attack can even make a scratch!"
I am assuming that what I underlined in bold is not just dumb pokedex-description hyperbole, but actually is what will happen in battle. I really don't understand how people are extrapolating Analytic or Magic Guard out of this. The statement literally says that Sableye can not be damaged by attacks. This is a very similar mechanic to Wonder Guard. For these reasons I think Sableye will get Wonder Guard:
I
really hate to be that guy, but I don't believe that Wonder Guard as an ability can be derived from that description. The Dex, and descriptions of powers and abilities in general for this game are nearly all cases of extreme hyperbole. On the topic of things that "cannot be scratched:
- Tyranitar: "Its body can't be harmed by any sort of attack, so it is very eager to make challenges against enemies."
- Golem: "Even dynamite can't harm its hard, boulderlike body. It sheds its hide just once a year."
- Bastiodon: "Any frontal attack is repulsed. It is a docile Pokémon that feeds on grass and berries."
- Registeel: "Tempered by pressure underground over tens of thousands of years, its body cannot be scratched."
- Chesnaught: "When it takes a defensive posture with its fists guarding its face, it could withstand a bomb blast."
- Cloyster: "Its shell is extremely hard. It cannot be shattered, even with a bomb. The shell opens only when it is attacking."
- GOOMY: "It's covered in a slimy membrane that makes any punches or kicks slide off it harmlessly."
- Shelgon: "Its armored body makes all attacks bounce off. The armor is too tough, however, making it heavy and somewhat sluggish."
Of those, only one has an Ability that goes with its Dex: Chesnaught with Bulletproof. Personally, I don't believe that Mega Sableye is going to be blessed with something as awesome as Wonder Guard. In searching, the "not harmed by attacks" usually applied to things with a higher-than-average Defense stat, so I think it's clear that it will get a good portion of its +100 stat points put there to more validate the Dex claim. It also pertains to the Defense stat mainly, since if you think about it, Special Attacks don't really leave "scratches"; they leave different things. There may be several burns on the crystal or something, but no scratches.
My hopeful theory is that it will keep Prankster. Sableye was almost unusable without that ability because its stats were so low. Priority burns and Recover, for all intents and purposes, "buffed its stats" in a way because it made it able to survive things it otherwise would not have, like Draco Meteors and all manner of physical attacks from non-Fire-types. If not Prankster, I think that the next possible ones are Stance Change (if some extreme coding changes go on for it), Bulletproof, Magic Bounce (unlikely, but possible), or some jank new ability that may block/weaken all frontal physical moves (exceptions being things like Phantom Force, Hyperspace Hole, and Shadow Sneak that all come from behind). Whatever it is, Mawile I feel will still get the best benefit of the pair because of available abilities; in addition to the +100 to its defenses, it got essentially a +154 to it's Attack stat alone (maxed out), making its functional base stat total a whopping 634. Looking through, I don't see an ability that would do that for the more defensive Sableye, unless you count that pseudo stat-buff with Prankster recovery and burns I mentioned earlier.
For the argument that it won't get Prankster because Banette is already "the role" of Prankster Ghost, I disagree. If you think about it, it's Banette that's in the wrong here; Sableye already had the niche of Prankster Ghost covered, and then Banette was added. Just because it got its Mega first doesn't change that a whole lot in my view. Think of the roles that overlap right now: Mega Garchomp < Garchomp in most cases, Mega Charizard X and Mega Aerodactyl both share the role of Tough Claws attackers, Mega Absol and Espeon are similar as fragile Magic Bouncers, Gyarados and Mega Gyarados face competition from each other in use
based on recent RMTs and laddering. Having one more co-niche of Prankster Ghost isn't a problem; besides, Banette is more around "Prankster suicide with Destiny Bond" than "Prankster annoy you to death with defenses and recovery". Their roles are still very different.
tl;dr: Arceus please let Mega Sableye keep Prankster or something as awesome we don't see yet......
Its boulder-like body is extremely hard. It can easily withstand dynamite blasts without taking damage.
Its boulder-like body is extremely hard. It can easily withstand dynamite blasts without taking damage.