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NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.
- Thread starter The Diabolic Gift
- Start date
- Status
idk why you're being so stubborn right now.
the problem was that acidphoenix was your only scumread, at a time where me and DLE were the lynch options. You weren't really trying to find out who was mafia between us two, but I guess your acidphoenix scumread was still fair; it's just that one scumread is very little at that stage, and you scumread someone who made no effort to defend himself. I also couldn't see any mention of DLE and I being scumread by you, please tell me where you said that. And again, you and Celever both changed opinions of each other very suddenly, so the scumread can easily be a quick bus as well (I'll wait to see how Celever responds before making this conclusion, it could still be legit). You also don't mention much about me being Celever's scumpartner. It seems obvious to me that you can't actually think of anyone being my scumpartner, and are forced to put someone, which is Celever your next highest scumread.
While I have don't have many problems with the actual playstyle, the fact that you played like that at a point where there were 4 scum remaining meant that there was a 1/2 chance of you being scum. You knew this, so I felt like you had to play cautiously because if you slipped, you would have shot right up there as a scumread by people due to there being 4 scum. Also, TIK and Ultrasplot didn't play cautious. They played EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE, so the point doesn't make much sense. Explain?
Feel free to go and search jumpluff's posts then, I know that you aren't going to be willing to change your opinion anytime soon
Well, yeah, I guess you can't take my role for granted like I can take your role for granted. I was more thinking about kills, but I already outlined why you had nothing to worry about that and you confirmed you told the truth, so.
Also, that is precisely why I prefer the doctor lynch. The doctor claimants have one confirmed scum from their PoVs (ftpov henceforth, I guess): each other. The village claimants Not Named Jumpluff have one confirmed scum ftpov (each other) and two people who have mutually exclusive alliances. You and I have the two people who have mutually exclusive alliances and then a townie quandary, and I have you as the undisputed Ice Mafia. It's not info loss I'm worried about at this stage, although that suggests to me you're aiming for kingmaker, in which case you have every reason to fear me and my dying wishes, scum or not :p It's making it through the day that's my priority, followed by identifying the second Fire Mafia, which I believe is inferable from partnertells (rssp1 + PGNXB is looking to be a very unrealistic scenario while rssp1 + Celever would be a near-certainty if UTO is the doctor, UTO + Celever and UTO + PGNXB are both possibilities if rssp1 is the doctor, so there's no safe lynch on non-doc claimants for me, whereas identifying the doctor both narrows down the partner for me and adds to the list of 'confirmed' town in case of kingmaker: in fact, there would be a town member with more solid credentials than even me). And I trust myself the most here, of course (so then I need to go with a lynch that is also based on a reasonable scenario and my reads, and I'm steadily building up the case here, but mostly I just want to keep observing discussion along useful lines because Day 3 evidence is quite significant, especially with context).
By the way, to the rest of the townies: don't dismiss the scumpluff fear, not because it's sensible (although the only person who can really justify fearing it ftpov is acidphoenix) but because acid has it at all. Just saying you should keep it in mind when thinking about acid~
I mostly would just want to see you both to directly interact with people who aren't each other or me/acid (but especially UTO because UTO is primarily directing things about and to me), not just to test you but to test them, which would be useful IMO. I agree you don't need to rephrase your specific arguments, the same could be said to Celever (to interact with UTO allowing for the scenario UTO is doctor) for example.
'Cause I mean correct me if I missed it (sorry, life) but has Celever actually seriously considered that at any point? That's a sticking point for me. I don't think I've ever had a strong read in this game where I didn't allow for the chance I could be wrong and think about the implications of that. The reads I pursued with most certainty this game were DLE and acid and I went through with the lynch on DLE because Yeti came back and said she didn't want to lynch UTO while also making a DLE lynch way more viable (I also devoted meaningful portions of my post to 'what if DLE is not scum?' which was usually a 'what if UncleSam is scum?' double feature, but yeah), I was second guessing myself and terrified I was lynching the doctor until he didn't even falseclaim it, and with acid I was scared I was going to hit upon someone genuinely really inactive and my meta read was baseless.
Alright, I'll Unvote. Like I said, I think that lynching between docs is optimal leading into tomorrow... if we get the right one.
jumpluff I've considered UTO as doc, but I just don't think it's likely. He definitely needs to work to convince me otherwise because I'm pretty confident in my read TBH.
jumpluff I've considered UTO as doc, but I just don't think it's likely. He definitely needs to work to convince me otherwise because I'm pretty confident in my read TBH.
I explicitly stated that I didn't find anything scummy for either you or DLE when I read back, and even after I read back twice I could still only find 1 incriminating thing for both of you. I'll go find the post.
It's right at the start.
For the second part of that, I've explained why my opinion changed of him (mostly his rapid change of opinion for me, along with a couple other things)
"So basically, Walrein had gone after Pokeguy and kept Celever as a "slight scum" but Walrein didn't have Celever as someone he went after, so i'm thinking Celever's a more likely scumpartner for UTO (looks like I made a 180 in my views.... could you say it was.... a u-turn!??)
But yeah, just the way Celever immediately reacted with disbelief to UTO's doc claim and then how he was immediately willing to accept my claim even after he's been pushing to get my lynched almost constantly seemed incredibly weird. It seemed even more weird when he was thinking that I was almost certainly scum, and yet at the same time possibly the doctor; i'm not sure why any townie would pursue a lynch on someone they thought had a good chance to be doc."
I state here that Pokeguy is less likely to be scum and I imply (but don't directly state) that you/Celever may be bussing each other or distancing each other in case one of you gets lynched.
What I said regarding TIK and Ultras is that they both played aggressive but were regarded as townie by almost everyone. You said I changed my playstyle because the people I subbed for were annoying a lot of people, but if I was intentionally choosing a playstyle, why would I not do the same thing if that's what got them townread by almost everyone?
Looks like you didn't fully read my point about jumpluff. Oh well, there's no point in saying it multiple times.
Also just because i'm curious, jumpluff at this moment who do you think is likely the fire mafia villager claim, Pokeguy or Celever? Why?
acidphoenix at this moment which do you think is the fire mafia doctor claim, UTO or me? why?
Celever and PokeguyNXB , explain why the other is scumteamed with the person you believe is the fire mafia doc claim.
There are no possible kingmakers as far as I see, so of course I'm not playing for one.
Oh wait 1v1v1 and 1v1v2
Although the former is "town, unless Fire and Ice both prefer nobody, or if one or the other prefers the other Mafia but not both", and the latter is the same thing but if both hand the game over nobody wins. So tl;dr town probably wins all kingmaker; making town not win is gamethrowing
Although the former is "town, unless Fire and Ice both prefer nobody, or if one or the other prefers the other Mafia but not both", and the latter is the same thing but if both hand the game over nobody wins. So tl;dr town probably wins all kingmaker; making town not win is gamethrowing
Also, since I missed it: By scumpluff fear I mean that if it's true, I lose any possibility of winning in most cases.
Besides why do you care about that; you know full well that I am scum, and the only reason to care is for figuring out the best lynch, also as I already mentioned town decides no kingmakers.
Besides why do you care about that; you know full well that I am scum, and the only reason to care is for figuring out the best lynch, also as I already mentioned town decides no kingmakers.
acidphoenix who do you think is the fire mafia between me and UTO, and why?
Thanks for digging up the post
I can't really call those scumreads. If you were actually concerned about DLE's activity, you would have probably mentioned something about sunny or Pokeguy as well, you just chose the person who had the most votes behind him first. And you can't really say the vote was bandwagony, there was one and a half pages seperating our votes, and I could have just as easily voted acidphoenix. I went with the person who was the best lynch target, and that's all there is to it. So even if you think those are scumreads, they have false information backing them up. And it gets worse when you're null reading unclesam and yeti at that point because they are pro-town (maybe there's a reason for that?). The fact that you mentioned me attacking Celever in your previous post is also you protecting him tbh.
Yes I did, but you're forgetting that when you subbed in Ultras was getting more and more scumreads, which is why I think it caused you to play more cautiously, unfortunately for you it didn't work. You wouldn't do the same because like Ultras, gradually you would be getting more and more scumreads, especially after the DLE flip. Playing cautiously would be the safest move
I have read your point about jumpluff, if you're suggesting we go back and try to find information, by all means go do it.
Celever, if you say that you were scumreading rssp1 and he would only be doc if he was village, how about me? That can't mean that if I were village, then I would be a villager, because we already have jumpluff and you, so I have to be the doctor if I'm village. However, you claim that you were scumreading me less than rssp1, which is confusing, because then you would be more open to my doctor claim. Please explain. You never said anything against my doctor claim other than "rssp1 is more likely" and "I claimed more scummily" when neither are true.
You're missing the point of my post. I stated that DLE said he would be active on Sunday yet was obviously reading the post and lurking, as shown by the gif he added to the thread.
"alright, DLE posted saying that he would be busy until Sunday and he still hasn't shown up (given its still early in the day on Monday, but I thought its worth pointing out) and he was apparently paying attention to the thread since he posted that one funny gif when this game was getting hijacked"
If you could have just as easily voted acidphoenix, why didn't you? AFAIK you stated reasoning to vote acid and Celever, then were like "and DLE is scummy too" and voted him. That's what I was pointing out.
Ultras was still townread by more, if anything the only person who changed to a scumread on him was jumpluff. I don't remember seeing any other flips over time.
I already explained my nullread on US and Yeti, since the playstyles they had were ones that can be copied by a skilled mafia (and they were obviously skilled players).
How is me mentioning you attacking Celever in your previous post protecting him? I get that if i attacked you for attacking him it would be protecting, but simply mentioning it doesn't really strike me as connecting us.
I'd also like to hear Celever's response to UTO's latest question.
"alright, DLE posted saying that he would be busy until Sunday and he still hasn't shown up (given its still early in the day on Monday, but I thought its worth pointing out) and he was apparently paying attention to the thread since he posted that one funny gif when this game was getting hijacked"
If you could have just as easily voted acidphoenix, why didn't you? AFAIK you stated reasoning to vote acid and Celever, then were like "and DLE is scummy too" and voted him. That's what I was pointing out.
Ultras was still townread by more, if anything the only person who changed to a scumread on him was jumpluff. I don't remember seeing any other flips over time.
I already explained my nullread on US and Yeti, since the playstyles they had were ones that can be copied by a skilled mafia (and they were obviously skilled players).
How is me mentioning you attacking Celever in your previous post protecting him? I get that if i attacked you for attacking him it would be protecting, but simply mentioning it doesn't really strike me as connecting us.
I'd also like to hear Celever's response to UTO's latest question.
I honestly have no clue whatsoever who in the doc claims is Celever's partner, neither of you two really jump out as especially scummy to me, and both of you have some sort of connection to him, so i have no real idea (also i'm paranoid about getting the wrong one)
And if we're lynching in the docs, Unvote
And if we're lynching in the docs, Unvote
acid posted about the nightkills during the middle of the day that and proven to be lurking . sunny had been talking but hasn't put anything useful. DLE was in the same situation but was an easier target, which is why you went for him. If anything, you're misunderstanding what I'm trying to say.
The reason I voted DLE was because at that time acid was not going to get lynched; me and DLE were the only targets. I was scumreading him, so I voted him. Do you understand how important it was to reach majority that day? If we didn't lynch someone we lost, and DLE was the only person that was going to be lynched, so I had to vote him.
Yeti made two posts about Ultras and DLE that worsened your case. jumpluff was also sorta scumreading you too. At that point where half of the players were mafia, you would still be a target.
Do you even understand why they were townread? It's because they made good useful posts. The fact that you townread Celever over them is insane. And why would you do it to them, but not jumpluff?
Because the Celever point was irrelevant seeing as he was the one who started the argument, the argument didn't change anything, and you felt the need to help your partner?
"alright, DLE posted saying that he would be busy until Sunday and he still hasn't shown up (given its still early in the day on Monday, but I thought its worth pointing out) and he was apparently paying attention to the thread since he posted that one funny gif when this game was getting hijacked"
Read what i'm saying. The reason i scumread DLE is that he said he was going to be gone, yet he proved he was here and watching by posting the gif, yet HE DID NOT POST ANYTHING ELSE in that time period.
I was scumreading acid, and I went for him. You were the one who went for DLE. Explaining the thought process behind your lynch, perhaps?
Most of the same people who were scumreading DLE were also scumreading acid, but they wanted DLE out first since the flip provided more information.
Why didn't you try at all to push a lynch on acid and instead just go after DLE?
So you're saying two players were scumreading me. I said most were townreading me, and two out of 9 (i believe that's how many were alive) is not a lot; I didn't say everyone townread the two, I said most did. You're also dismissing that I said anything useful, but I didn't actually see much brought up from your posts, other than a bunch of people scumreading you (although to be fair some of that was Walrein's fault).
I'm now completely and utterly confused about your point regarding Celever, and i'm not sure if i'm reading the same post that you're referring to. Do me a favor and quote the post you're talking about?
Read what i'm saying. The reason i scumread DLE is that he said he was going to be gone, yet he proved he was here and watching by posting the gif, yet HE DID NOT POST ANYTHING ELSE in that time period.
I was scumreading acid, and I went for him. You were the one who went for DLE. Explaining the thought process behind your lynch, perhaps?
Most of the same people who were scumreading DLE were also scumreading acid, but they wanted DLE out first since the flip provided more information.
Why didn't you try at all to push a lynch on acid and instead just go after DLE?
So you're saying two players were scumreading me. I said most were townreading me, and two out of 9 (i believe that's how many were alive) is not a lot; I didn't say everyone townread the two, I said most did. You're also dismissing that I said anything useful, but I didn't actually see much brought up from your posts, other than a bunch of people scumreading you (although to be fair some of that was Walrein's fault).
I'm now completely and utterly confused about your point regarding Celever, and i'm not sure if i'm reading the same post that you're referring to. Do me a favor and quote the post you're talking about?
I already explained my thought process with DLE the post above. Plus, the post where I voted him has explanations I think.
I agree, DLE was too lazy to post. However, acid and sunny were too. Him saying he will post is kind of troubling, but that equals out when he actually posts something that kinda starts discussion instead of sunny(now pokeguy). So how did you feel about sunny at the time? What I'm trying to say is that DLE was one of the easeiest lynch targets so it's easy to put him up there when other players are doing the exact same thing. But I guess I kind of get what youre saying now, so I'm not going to push it. I still think 2 scumreads are really terrible at that point, but whatever.
Yes, and DLE was the better lynch, so I lynched him?
Two out of nine is still a lot considering half of the players are mafia, considering those players were town. And you did have some useful information, but you didn't post very much tbh, the reason that I didn't bring up too much was that I was busy defending myself (I was put on the defense immediately when I subbed in).
This is the point about you protecting Celever, there are many more connections between you and Celever, it's not just that
You're still misunderstanding, DLE didn't post anything except for that gif. what i'm saying is that he said he would be gone yet he was obviously watching the thread because he posted that gif. That was why i found him scummy.
Not that he was fillering or lurking, but the fact he said he was gone while in fact he was actually lurking.
It was 3 scumreads, considering you were one of them. If i'm remembering correctly, you also had 3: acid, DLE, and Celever.
The reason i highlighted you lynching DLE over that is that you were trying to push that onto me, saying it's scummy, while you did what you're trying to say I did.... meaning you called your own vote scummy.
Two out of 9 isn't a lot, given that that's not even half of what's needed for a majority. Jumpluff wasn't even scumreading me, s/he was nullreading me - and that's something different. Also, you aren't forced to only defend yourself when you're being attacked - you CAN bring in other things, as both you and I have done today. IMO while being attacked does definitely make it HARDER to contribute, it's not an excuse for not having too much contribution and then calling someone else out and saying they don't have very much either.
I mean I don't see how that connects us at all because i'm literally summarizing your post - if anything, i'm defending acid or DLE. Me simply mentioning that you attacked Celever in that post doesn't connect us at all.
Not that he was fillering or lurking, but the fact he said he was gone while in fact he was actually lurking.
It was 3 scumreads, considering you were one of them. If i'm remembering correctly, you also had 3: acid, DLE, and Celever.
The reason i highlighted you lynching DLE over that is that you were trying to push that onto me, saying it's scummy, while you did what you're trying to say I did.... meaning you called your own vote scummy.
Two out of 9 isn't a lot, given that that's not even half of what's needed for a majority. Jumpluff wasn't even scumreading me, s/he was nullreading me - and that's something different. Also, you aren't forced to only defend yourself when you're being attacked - you CAN bring in other things, as both you and I have done today. IMO while being attacked does definitely make it HARDER to contribute, it's not an excuse for not having too much contribution and then calling someone else out and saying they don't have very much either.
I mean I don't see how that connects us at all because i'm literally summarizing your post - if anything, i'm defending acid or DLE. Me simply mentioning that you attacked Celever in that post doesn't connect us at all.
this is absurd for a lylo situation
sorry I haven't been around, rather predictably after my meds got doubled I became ill and nearly needed to go to hospital, which still isn't out of the question, but if I do someone will know.
i cannot justify anything celever is doing as pro-town. at this point if they weren't ccing each other for doctor i'd be more inclined to say rssp1 and uto are BOTH town rather than celever, thats literally how bad celever looks right now.
pokeguynxb it would be helpful if you talked about the connections celever has to uto and rssp1. i agree celever is connected to them both rather substantially which muddies the water quite a bit. i know celever is scum from your point of view but you can use that to inform your thoughts on how celever is interacting very differently with the two doctor claimants. what do you think celever gains out of the lynch on rssp1 at the start of the day? what about celever's refusal to consider uto as doctor? what about the fact celever was reading you as town (iirc) until rssp1 and uto claimed doctor, in which case celever was numerically forced to read you as scum? what about rssp1's insistent reads on celever? do you think it matters that uto claimed doctor first and what do you think of celever's response to that claim? etc. you don't have to answer all these questions they're just writing prompts lol
celever who did you think was doctor out of me and pgnxb?
Why? o_O I said that if we hit the right doc it's optimal leading into tomorrow. This is a huge if, and I just came off a wagon voting for Pokeguy. Clearly I'm no opposed to either option Dx. Do you think it's not optimal to lynch the fake doc if we basically 90% knew which one was scum?
Why? D:
I didn't have a big docread on either of you TBH. I thought that it was feasible that both of you were dirtying the waters and making yourselves look less doccy (you being extremely vocal and putting your neck out and Pokeguy straight up claiming to be vanilla) but I didn't think that either of you were particularly doccy or not-doccy. If you and Pokeguy had both claimed doc this would be a lot harder, and if rssp1 and Pokeguy or rssp1 and jumpluff had claimed doc I probably would have townread Pokeguy/jumpluff and scumread rssp1. The only reason why I'm townreading rssp1 rn is because his cc is UTO and he was scummy anyway, combined with how he claimed makes him a solid scum IMO. I did say before that I was thinking if rssp1 is town then he is also probably doc, and it looks like I was right. I just went for him because Ultras was such a huge scum.
Y'see I'm really bad at this Dx. I was hoping proving Pokeguy is mafia by finding a case on him would work better but honestly I only scumread him because of numbers. My reads might be off this game, or maybe Pokeguy just played really well.
Yeah it's possible. Obviously we're half way there with Pokeguy anyway, so that's basically just asking me if I think it's plausible rssp1 is mafia. It definitely is, but I think it's pretty unlikely at this stage.
Also I know that other people have shot a few questions at me earlier but if I didn't reply to them I either A) didn't have time and forgot about where the question is (and don't really have the time to read back through everything) or B) didn't think I could give a good answer.
I've found our optimal strategy, as long as we can successfully lynch the false doctor claimant today. I don't see this a reason to foreshorten discussion of Celever and PokeguyNXB. Nevertheless, we must lynch the false doctor today to win, so I'd like the town to be concentrating their efforts in the direction of uncovering and arguing against the false doctor.
Oh sorry this loaded when I went to post. I can't type in my browser.
Yes, I agree lynching the false doctor is optimal. And if we lynch the real doctor we lose automatically, so it isn't just a matter of optimal play but straight up surviving. Even a 10% chance of that warrants analysis. That's why it's absurd for you to not act towards the interests of that. By making yourself look scummy, by refusing to articulate a coherent scenario around rssp1 and UTO, and by refusing to consider and articulate the possibility rssp1 is the false doctor, you are playing suboptimally. It doesn't matter whether you have a strong read on one, I want you to argue it, and I want to know that you've thought all the realistic scenarios through and eliminated them. In your words from Day 2: 'prove to me that this is more than just gut'. I want the same from PokeguyNXB, but it's easier to get you to make posts, so using my energy on repeatedly interrogating you is more efficient.
I agree with nearly all you've said about UltrasPlot. But it also creates a situation in which rssp1 looks scummier, ironically, because of the oscillating connection between you that has become ironclad on today, the day where the Fire Mafia absolutely cannot afford to lose their partner. And of course U-Turn Out is in a situation where their partner is very likely not being threatened with a lynch, or if they are (read: it's you), then they have literally no way of arguing against it without outing you both, and UTO also has more pressure on them, so it's inevitable that they would be trying to avoid partnertells. Nonetheless, it remains that the only people UTO has a positive relationship with today are me and PokeguyNXB. I cannot justify you bussing UTO today as a distancing tactic because it turns what could be a surefire win into a very likely loss, so as much as I think there is a lot of suspicious shit going on with you and UTO I think it is mostly residue from rssp1/UltrasPlot and you.
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