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NOC Deathnote NOC Mafia - GAME OVER, Postgame in #714
- Thread starter Blazade
- Start date
- Status
I'd take the lack of activity for a sign that scum isn't worried by the lynch but day1 results proved me wrong about this kind of guess so my vote is sitting where it is until someone makes a valid point against it (I get that josh doesn't want to vote hitmonleet and call it a day but nobody is posting atm).
Pancake/asek I am suspicious of, I believe there's 1 scum among hitmonleet/josh and want to see hitmon flipping. What about you?
sorry I was bad and forgot I was in this and I have been busy getting back to school SO... here's an updated list of town > scum.
In Order of Most Likely Town to Most Likely Scum
Josh
Gronkasaurus Rex
Mithril
Haruno
King_
Asek
acidphoenix
MoodyCloud
Hitmonleet
Is that everyone?
not much has happened since the last post so here's a short blurb of why I think each person is what they are.
Josh - no explanation needed
Gronk - I still like his contributions (citation: post 402) and his address of everyone, although he's yet to supply a full list of reads, which would be nice.
Mithril: nothing much has happened since my first read post, you can refer to that. He dropped out of activity for a while but this is no reason to think of him as less townie (citation: MoodyCloud's shitty reads).
Haruno: I like his insight in post 422 and his contributions / questions in general.
King_: For some reason I don't think King_ is scum, his contributions have been fine thus far, but this is mostly a gut read.
Asek: after josh said he thinks he knows Asek's role that made me trust him a little more, but not really enough to remove him to a more extreme town position, even though I trust josh. He has not done anything since yesterday to make me feel more confident about him being town (citation: not posting), and in fact, late yesterday he did more scummy things than townie things imo (citation: too lazy to find one)
acidphoenix - really bad posts so far, little to no contributions at all (post 403: I'm town, yay)
MoodyCloud - he's still here for pretty much the same reasons that he was here last time, and he really hasn't done anything to make me think he is town any more as he has just been sheeping the lynch and not responding to everyone who is scumreading him. Also in his previous post Moody is attempting to prey on the least active players for some reason which is a sure sign of being scum.
Hitmonleet - no explanation needed
Lynch Hitmonleet although I'm on board with a Moody lynch too
In Order of Most Likely Town to Most Likely Scum
Josh
Gronkasaurus Rex
Mithril
Haruno
King_
Asek
acidphoenix
MoodyCloud
Hitmonleet
Is that everyone?
not much has happened since the last post so here's a short blurb of why I think each person is what they are.
Josh - no explanation needed
Gronk - I still like his contributions (citation: post 402) and his address of everyone, although he's yet to supply a full list of reads, which would be nice.
Mithril: nothing much has happened since my first read post, you can refer to that. He dropped out of activity for a while but this is no reason to think of him as less townie (citation: MoodyCloud's shitty reads).
Haruno: I like his insight in post 422 and his contributions / questions in general.
King_: For some reason I don't think King_ is scum, his contributions have been fine thus far, but this is mostly a gut read.
Asek: after josh said he thinks he knows Asek's role that made me trust him a little more, but not really enough to remove him to a more extreme town position, even though I trust josh. He has not done anything since yesterday to make me feel more confident about him being town (citation: not posting), and in fact, late yesterday he did more scummy things than townie things imo (citation: too lazy to find one)
acidphoenix - really bad posts so far, little to no contributions at all (post 403: I'm town, yay)
MoodyCloud - he's still here for pretty much the same reasons that he was here last time, and he really hasn't done anything to make me think he is town any more as he has just been sheeping the lynch and not responding to everyone who is scumreading him. Also in his previous post Moody is attempting to prey on the least active players for some reason which is a sure sign of being scum.
Hitmonleet - no explanation needed
Lynch Hitmonleet although I'm on board with a Moody lynch too
Yo Yo : )
Just thinking about players;
And again, a lot of this assumes hitmonleet scum, which is highly probable (but tiny tiny bit skeptical {but hitmonleet not responding is a good sign?!})
acidphoenix;
Josh; the bad post you linked seems more scum motivated if they know that aura is town because they're adding the caveat of could be dumbness so you're an anchor point where blame can fall if aura flips town. I get that acid could be lazy scum, but I can imagine more conviction in a bus of your scum partner at that point than just "yeah sounds right, but maybe dumb".
MoodyCloud;
As I referenced yesterday, this is such a weird post;
But with Moody I see that the *plan* of watcher / disguise artist target is obviously a very ludicrous suggestion for mafia. I guess the question is did they really believe that both watcher and disguise artist would target them after suggesting it?
His scumreads on Knights and Asek for not posting as much were bad, but I think I can see them as misapplications of meta?
Pancake;
This is the other post I mentioned yesterday and it's pretty potent. "I want this flip" - which indicates that they still want to lynch aura, allegedly. Wanting that flip but "highly suggest[-ing] we get on him [MoodyCloud] instead" seems a bit bollocks. It seems like trying to eke some towncred and stay cool if aura flips scum, whilst presenting a laid back suggestion to go for some one who isn't aura.
The Moody read seems to develop and yes there's the idea of too scummy to be scum but regardless it's a really bad request to move the lynch but affirm the lynch you're advocating to move on from.
Mithril;
Didn't commenting on the aura guardian wagon or aura guardian, except for their RVS post (which I thought was unnecessary, but I can see town also wanting to just post 'something' there).
King_;
I thought Knights aggression was a bit out of place, but not much. Ah, gotta go soon, so I will do more later with King_, but first comment is that they don't seem to be digging that deep.
Concise conclusions
Basically don't really think it's acid.
Want to read King_ and re-read Moody (and also asek, Josh, Haruno, but I'm not particularly keen on voting them at all).
I want to believe that mafia wouldn't play Moody's game and that Moody has made mistakes as town rather than intentional scum.
So I think it's most likely Pancake, or then Mithril (and have to re-read King_).
Questions;
acidphoenix; read on asek and King_, and I want to see your Moody look-in?
pancake; why do you like Haruno's contribution?
King_; how have acid and Moody been off?
Haruno; thoughts on pancake & mithril 'cases'?
Bye for now : )
Just thinking about players;
And again, a lot of this assumes hitmonleet scum, which is highly probable (but tiny tiny bit skeptical {but hitmonleet not responding is a good sign?!})
acidphoenix;
I really liked this post, and if not for aura I would have voted pancake for similar reasons. So that gave me some town vibes.
Still thinking about this one
Josh; the bad post you linked seems more scum motivated if they know that aura is town because they're adding the caveat of could be dumbness so you're an anchor point where blame can fall if aura flips town. I get that acid could be lazy scum, but I can imagine more conviction in a bus of your scum partner at that point than just "yeah sounds right, but maybe dumb".
MoodyCloud;
As I referenced yesterday, this is such a weird post;
I don't think there's a precedent for him to ask about a vote like that.
But with Moody I see that the *plan* of watcher / disguise artist target is obviously a very ludicrous suggestion for mafia. I guess the question is did they really believe that both watcher and disguise artist would target them after suggesting it?
His scumreads on Knights and Asek for not posting as much were bad, but I think I can see them as misapplications of meta?
Pancake;
This is the other post I mentioned yesterday and it's pretty potent. "I want this flip" - which indicates that they still want to lynch aura, allegedly. Wanting that flip but "highly suggest[-ing] we get on him [MoodyCloud] instead" seems a bit bollocks. It seems like trying to eke some towncred and stay cool if aura flips scum, whilst presenting a laid back suggestion to go for some one who isn't aura.
The Moody read seems to develop and yes there's the idea of too scummy to be scum but regardless it's a really bad request to move the lynch but affirm the lynch you're advocating to move on from.
Mithril;
Didn't commenting on the aura guardian wagon or aura guardian, except for their RVS post (which I thought was unnecessary, but I can see town also wanting to just post 'something' there).
Again, didn't like that they didn't vote Josh, and then voted Asek for set-up speculation and lack of evaluative stances "actual thoughts on players". Particularly because a) they found Josh suspicious and talked about that in the post and b) Mithril themselves didn't really have much non claiming discussion outside of the Josh and hitmonleet link.
King_;
I thought Knights aggression was a bit out of place, but not much. Ah, gotta go soon, so I will do more later with King_, but first comment is that they don't seem to be digging that deep.
Concise conclusions
Basically don't really think it's acid.
Want to read King_ and re-read Moody (and also asek, Josh, Haruno, but I'm not particularly keen on voting them at all).
I want to believe that mafia wouldn't play Moody's game and that Moody has made mistakes as town rather than intentional scum.
So I think it's most likely Pancake, or then Mithril (and have to re-read King_).
Questions;
acidphoenix; read on asek and King_, and I want to see your Moody look-in?
pancake; why do you like Haruno's contribution?
King_; how have acid and Moody been off?
Haruno; thoughts on pancake & mithril 'cases'?
Bye for now : )
here, I'll analyze it for you, Gronk.
even though it's kind of obvious at the beginning, it's good that he clarifies why Hitmonleet is 100% scum, which was honestly kind of confusing at first and I'm happy he did this.
I don't like this actually because it implies that he knows that hitmonleet isn't light, so... this part of the post isn't great, but the rest of it is. I missed this in my first time through, but I still don't think it puts him under Asek or King_ on my scum list.
I like how he is questioning a person who many think is town, deviating from the norm. For me, this is a fairly town sentence.
I also enjoy how he is asking people to say their thoughts on the third scum because it is important that we start thinking about this now for our actions tonight.
even though it's kind of obvious at the beginning, it's good that he clarifies why Hitmonleet is 100% scum, which was honestly kind of confusing at first and I'm happy he did this.
I don't like this actually because it implies that he knows that hitmonleet isn't light, so... this part of the post isn't great, but the rest of it is. I missed this in my first time through, but I still don't think it puts him under Asek or King_ on my scum list.
I like how he is questioning a person who many think is town, deviating from the norm. For me, this is a fairly town sentence.
I also enjoy how he is asking people to say their thoughts on the third scum because it is important that we start thinking about this now for our actions tonight.
OK I was in panic mode yesterday I've thought about this game
To preface: You guys are making a grave mistake in your approach to this game as far as im concerned. Theres next to no downside to mafia bussing each other, considering that as a team they only lose the lynch vote (inconsequential if they arent under suspicion). Think about it. Don't let josh pushing so hard on aura for 'scum slip' in first post fool you. That wasn't godlike scum reading signs to my eyes. That was in hindsight bussing, and now mafia has caught multiple roles with the supposed merlin fake claim. Please stop sheeping josh on literally everything and think for yourselves this game. You are being lead astray mine people.
Basically we know one of josh / hitmonleet is scum as far as im concerned from texas' play late yesterday. The other is obviously merlin. Why else would texas sheep the hitmonleet so far after the josh merlin claim? The only logical explanation is that both of these players were in texas pm, and the scum have effectively flushed him out now and lynched him. From yesterday I was blind to this by the josh play and im 90% sure scum now know my role (unfortunately), BUT i was sitting on this theory before the merlin 'claim'. Lets examine that merlin claim shall we? The mafia hooker can basically pub claim merlin and have it be reasonably believable due to percivals appearance in the game, and at worst they likely draw percival out very effectively if theres an inconsistency with what 'merlin' lists and what percival has. I think josh took this gambit in all honesty and got lucky with hitmonleet also being in texas role pm. Think about a fake merlin claim from mafia perspective for moment: you pretty much at worse pick up percival signs, and either guarentee someone is in that pool or someone is outside of that pool. Its a very good trade for mafia in that sense, considering what I outlined above. Village flips are a lot more impactful in this game until the point where all mafia are dead. An even trade of 1:1 village to mafia works incredibly well for a merlin fake claim as a potential worse, and the percival out has basically given maifa merlin on a silver platter to make things even better for them.
SO where am I going with all of this? I think scum nearly has the game in the bag at this point. But look at how the 2 (josh + hitmonleet) are playing for a second. Hitmonleet seems like a far bigger case of noob town for me at the time being. Hes reading the mafiascum wiki for crying out loud. Would a nooby scum in the same situation be reading the mafiascum wiki and posting about it in the thread, or asking for clarification in his scumchat as to what the terminology being used was? Also I know exactly where the hitmonleet vote on me would be coming from. Its not scum indicitive. People who are voting him for voting me stop, he definitely has the reason. Josh on the other hand? I definitely think that he was bussing A_G all throughout day 1. Would any of you go back to the first A_G post and say that post in of itself was reason enough to push someone so clearly through day 1? The reasons josh gave was 'please trust me' and 'this is a surefire scum tell' etc etc. but really i implore you to go back through those interactions. It is in hindsight bussing and baiting all throughout the day as far as I'm concerned. Claiming merlin at that point is something josh!merlin should never of done, i was angry about it yesterday but now thinking about it im fairly certain it was a scum play. Think about how much that merlin claim has fucked town over. Do you think town!josh would ever really do that? The hole in my theory admittably comes to the point where josh was able to pinpoint who was merlins targets. But if you read above, you should be able to understand that for this plan to work for scum, they only had to figure out who merlin was to lure percival, and anything after that was likely a bonus for them. I'm guessing josh just listed his top 3 merlin reads + ag as a scum in order to lure out texas well enough and by god did it work.
For the reason above, I am placing my vote comftably on josh today. I believe the final scum should be caught through trying to figure out exactly who twin would of targetted last night. My guess is on gronkasaurus, mithril or josh (last name obviously would lead to this being useles....)
vote josh
To preface: You guys are making a grave mistake in your approach to this game as far as im concerned. Theres next to no downside to mafia bussing each other, considering that as a team they only lose the lynch vote (inconsequential if they arent under suspicion). Think about it. Don't let josh pushing so hard on aura for 'scum slip' in first post fool you. That wasn't godlike scum reading signs to my eyes. That was in hindsight bussing, and now mafia has caught multiple roles with the supposed merlin fake claim. Please stop sheeping josh on literally everything and think for yourselves this game. You are being lead astray mine people.
Basically we know one of josh / hitmonleet is scum as far as im concerned from texas' play late yesterday. The other is obviously merlin. Why else would texas sheep the hitmonleet so far after the josh merlin claim? The only logical explanation is that both of these players were in texas pm, and the scum have effectively flushed him out now and lynched him. From yesterday I was blind to this by the josh play and im 90% sure scum now know my role (unfortunately), BUT i was sitting on this theory before the merlin 'claim'. Lets examine that merlin claim shall we? The mafia hooker can basically pub claim merlin and have it be reasonably believable due to percivals appearance in the game, and at worst they likely draw percival out very effectively if theres an inconsistency with what 'merlin' lists and what percival has. I think josh took this gambit in all honesty and got lucky with hitmonleet also being in texas role pm. Think about a fake merlin claim from mafia perspective for moment: you pretty much at worse pick up percival signs, and either guarentee someone is in that pool or someone is outside of that pool. Its a very good trade for mafia in that sense, considering what I outlined above. Village flips are a lot more impactful in this game until the point where all mafia are dead. An even trade of 1:1 village to mafia works incredibly well for a merlin fake claim as a potential worse, and the percival out has basically given maifa merlin on a silver platter to make things even better for them.
SO where am I going with all of this? I think scum nearly has the game in the bag at this point. But look at how the 2 (josh + hitmonleet) are playing for a second. Hitmonleet seems like a far bigger case of noob town for me at the time being. Hes reading the mafiascum wiki for crying out loud. Would a nooby scum in the same situation be reading the mafiascum wiki and posting about it in the thread, or asking for clarification in his scumchat as to what the terminology being used was? Also I know exactly where the hitmonleet vote on me would be coming from. Its not scum indicitive. People who are voting him for voting me stop, he definitely has the reason. Josh on the other hand? I definitely think that he was bussing A_G all throughout day 1. Would any of you go back to the first A_G post and say that post in of itself was reason enough to push someone so clearly through day 1? The reasons josh gave was 'please trust me' and 'this is a surefire scum tell' etc etc. but really i implore you to go back through those interactions. It is in hindsight bussing and baiting all throughout the day as far as I'm concerned. Claiming merlin at that point is something josh!merlin should never of done, i was angry about it yesterday but now thinking about it im fairly certain it was a scum play. Think about how much that merlin claim has fucked town over. Do you think town!josh would ever really do that? The hole in my theory admittably comes to the point where josh was able to pinpoint who was merlins targets. But if you read above, you should be able to understand that for this plan to work for scum, they only had to figure out who merlin was to lure percival, and anything after that was likely a bonus for them. I'm guessing josh just listed his top 3 merlin reads + ag as a scum in order to lure out texas well enough and by god did it work.
For the reason above, I am placing my vote comftably on josh today. I believe the final scum should be caught through trying to figure out exactly who twin would of targetted last night. My guess is on gronkasaurus, mithril or josh (last name obviously would lead to this being useles....)
vote josh
While I agree that scum can easily ditch their own in this setup and that if hitmonleet flips town I'll be voting josh, hitmonleet not even trying to put up a proper defense makes me think they are far more likely to be scum than josh. I wouldn't put it past josh to be pulling a light yagami earning town's trust however.
if we mislynch today there wont be another chance to lynch, id say its game over at that point.
May I ask what happened to your posts 362 and 366 where you don't want auraguardian lynched and would rather lynch hitmonleet or me
I was sure josh was merlin for a reason that should be blatant obvious by now and had little chance to think about the game other than that
i still scum read you
hitmonleet is town
You have a point but you're still looking like scum trying to last resort save their idle teammate. Now I don't believe scum would actually go all in to save another when they're much better off laying low which is why you get a pass. Confirming that you fell for the fake merlin claim and gave obvious hints of your role doesn't seem like a safe play for town at all however. I believe twin died visiting one of josh/hitmonleet and josh was pretty much the towniest-looking around so I'm willing to listen to why you'd basically claim role now. Merlin knows the truth of the hitmonleet lynch matter anyway.
Can we please stop the smogon concept of idling = scum? Scum almost always push their teammates for activity no matter what it is, so that they can pin scum tell of 'idling' on to people who are busy elsewhere or just cant be bothered with the game. Lynching idles is a scum play nearly every time it happens. If idling makes you scum hang me for yesterday when I was busy.
Hitmonleet you will get in this thread immediatly and confirm what I am about to post
Since scum know this anyway....
You are merlin
Your names were aura guardian, josh, twin and myself
I am pub claiming the bodyguard
I'm not saying hitmonleet is scum because he's been idle, I say he's in a really bad spot and has done nothing to change it. I doubt you're scum together with hitmonleet because that'd be a really desperate move on your part which the mafia doesn't have to commit to in this setup, so while I doubt hitmonleet you look town to me.
HOWEVER.
Only a merlin counterclaim aka really bad news for village would confirm that hitmonleet isn't lying so it's a 50/50 nonetheless. I assume you'd have told him in daychat if that was a scum attempt at getting marlin's identity out of hitmonleet's death and thus am willing to believe what you're saying. I'm waiting for other people to post opinions on the matter but I'll believe you are doing this as town and not taking a pretty risky gamble as scum for now.
Lynch josh
HOWEVER.
Only a merlin counterclaim aka really bad news for village would confirm that hitmonleet isn't lying so it's a 50/50 nonetheless. I assume you'd have told him in daychat if that was a scum attempt at getting marlin's identity out of hitmonleet's death and thus am willing to believe what you're saying. I'm waiting for other people to post opinions on the matter but I'll believe you are doing this as town and not taking a pretty risky gamble as scum for now.
Lynch josh
"@King_; how have acid and Moody been off?"
I think i've gave reasons multiple times but i'll try to elaborate,
Acid is usually the one pushing on people etc and trying to get people riled up. This game he's kind following and quiet.
Moody this game has been decently active when he wants his point's across but he's doing "just" enough, not laying low but enough. I feel that my scumread on him is changing a little a bit after rereading things, he's also now more active in trying to get the right lynch.
I think i've gave reasons multiple times but i'll try to elaborate,
Acid is usually the one pushing on people etc and trying to get people riled up. This game he's kind following and quiet.
Moody this game has been decently active when he wants his point's across but he's doing "just" enough, not laying low but enough. I feel that my scumread on him is changing a little a bit after rereading things, he's also now more active in trying to get the right lynch.
I'll be honest, Asek's posts feels to be very genuine and honestly on the money. I kept being bothered by the lack of response from anybody with Josh's claim after learning he faked it but I couldn't wrap my head around how Texas was playing. One post in particular seems pretty informational looking at it now (Texas post 123) where he points out that Josh and Hitmonleet don't need to be teammates to be buddying. It felt pretty innocuous at the time, but definitely feels like a statement that had more knowledge behind it at this point. With AG hinting at Josh being Merlin and the eventual Merlin claim, it only makes sense that he was so confident in Hitmonleet as scum.
I need to process this a bit more, but I can definitely see myself flipping over to Josh as Merlin over Hitmonleet, so I'll unvote for now.
I need to process this a bit more, but I can definitely see myself flipping over to Josh as Merlin over Hitmonleet, so I'll unvote for now.
Thursday 1 PM EST, so about 36ish hours.
LMAO asek. That is all I have to say to you. You are the true vi this game. That's all I have to say. I know who merlin is and it's not Hitmonleet nor myself. Texas entered my ignore list yesterday and you enter it today.
If yall want we can lynch Hitmonleet today idc. He's caught scum and just like asek and jalmont in my game he hasn't been fucked to defend himself. I would rather be alive for hunting the final one but it literally does not matter if you all think your competent enough to do it.
And yes, aura did scum slip. Just because you don't see that doesn't mean it's not true.
If yall want we can lynch Hitmonleet today idc. He's caught scum and just like asek and jalmont in my game he hasn't been fucked to defend himself. I would rather be alive for hunting the final one but it literally does not matter if you all think your competent enough to do it.
And yes, aura did scum slip. Just because you don't see that doesn't mean it's not true.
I'm genuinely shocked nobody's picked up on who merlin is but nobody picked up on the scum slip so I'll just lol.
Vote Hitmonleet
Asek decided to gamethrow so gl tomorrow folks. Town loses. With how much poe scum gets now that a role claimed there's no chance town wins. I expected this from noobs but two players I respect and like played the worst by a large margin this game (asek and texas). I'll save it for postgame which is gonna be soon.
If you wanna lynch scum tomorrow it's in mithril and acid gl
Vote Hitmonleet
Asek decided to gamethrow so gl tomorrow folks. Town loses. With how much poe scum gets now that a role claimed there's no chance town wins. I expected this from noobs but two players I respect and like played the worst by a large margin this game (asek and texas). I'll save it for postgame which is gonna be soon.
If you wanna lynch scum tomorrow it's in mithril and acid gl
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