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NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN

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I don't see anyone else around

I don't like strongly suspect dle slot but I also don't see anything that really justifies TOWN reading him over null in his very limited posts
 
Yeti said:
I don't see anyone else around

I don't like strongly suspect dle slot but I also don't see anything that really justifies TOWN reading him over null in his very limited posts
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I mean I think scum dle puts in more effort. Him calling you town when there was a lot of general sentiment against that being the case very strongly resonates with me.

On the flip side, Walrein has done fuck all and declined to take a position on king/fcc which looks lame in hindsight.

I'm actually leaning towards hitmonleet atm. #611 and #612 don't look good given the flips.

The tendency to make ISOs and reads list over saying something critical about the game is something I still don't like. I could easily see a scum team with Asek + Flyhn once I fuck up and the usual suspects don't flip scum.

UncleSam is probably good I think given how badly the mafia wanted him offed. FH is a similar vein. blazade doesn't try and protect sam I feel as mafia?? Although that is a bit dubious.

who else have i not mentioned. i genuinely think moody is more town than mafia but i dunno. very hard for me to see a world in which twin is bad unless he's going for the ultra last ditch play of buddying his remaining teammates. That's so out there though that I can pretty much rule that out.
 
I think Asek is town (or bussing super hard but unlikely at this point), unsure about Blazade but his latest posts with a similar reasoning than the one I disclosed (call it wifom if you will) makes me lean town on him too, he's not chasing in a straight line for the current easiest shot to push in the game and that's worth town points in my book.

I remember someone saying Himonleet+me were scumteam tunneling Formerhope, think it was Yeti who said it, and that's the one thing that prevents me from putting Yeti in my town pool actually lol, who would make such a reckless play as scum.
 
Jalmont said:
I mean I think scum dle puts in more effort. Him calling you town when there was a lot of general sentiment against that being the case very strongly resonates with me.

On the flip side, Walrein has done fuck all and declined to take a position on king/fcc which looks lame in hindsight.

I'm actually leaning towards hitmonleet atm. #611 and #612 don't look good given the flips.

The tendency to make ISOs and reads list over saying something critical about the game is something I still don't like. I could easily see a scum team with Asek + Flyhn once I fuck up and the usual suspects don't flip scum.

UncleSam is probably good I think given how badly the mafia wanted him offed. FH is a similar vein. blazade doesn't try and protect sam I feel as mafia?? Although that is a bit dubious.

who else have i not mentioned. i genuinely think moody is more town than mafia but i dunno. very hard for me to see a world in which twin is bad unless he's going for the ultra last ditch play of buddying his remaining teammates. That's so out there though that I can pretty much rule that out.
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Why asek+flyhn
 
MoodyCloud said:
who would make such a reckless play as scum.
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If_I_Did_It.jpg
 
from my memory i would've told you it was josh and empoof who first said flyhn would be their lock town, i think asek said he'd be ok with hitmonleet lock town?

we know the flyhn train had 1 scum 1 town if it was indeed josh, i know empoof said he'd be down with flyhn.
 
also i guess sam and i have a different view of the idle meta, since we've both scumread him for subbing in and idling. he's done it as town but he's done it as mafia where he makes driveby posts with little explanation.

his "we need 1 lock town guys" + "yeti's totes town" then no explanation or interaction after that make sense as mafia!iDLE, he said something unpopular at the time that he'd know is true if he's mafia and bounced out so he didn't have to justify it.

i also think it makes sense he posits the lock town thing so a scumbuddy or two can begin the process of setting up one of their own AS the lock town. this backfires if we decide on an ACTUAL town but works out well if they can get enough sheep to support a "consensus town" read who's actually mafia, and never reconsider that notion.

i feel like it was abandoned pretty quickly when i called it out as a subpar play for that point in time to try and establish anyone as lock town; it's still a bad play to try and decide that NOW outside of having a pool of unlikely shots barring huge boozle.

mafia!iDLE makes one-liner fluff posts that don't tie him to anyone dangerous in any meaningful way. then again town!iDLE just plain idles as well. this slot isn't my first choice for a shot but if the moody/leet team is wrong i think he's a very good option.
 
btw i have 6 hours of class tmrw leading into a redeye to visit sam again so im going to be p low activity for a week, i try to not join games starting when we visit but this gd game has taken a year so gg. obv we wont be discussing the game irl but i also prob wont be posting much so ping me if you desire an actual response.
 
that could be i know its 1 of you 2 but at that point in the game the 2 of you sort of blurred together for me so i cant rly be certain, i just thought there was empoof + 1 and empoof + 2 on flyhn/leet respectively
 
Then again if Asek/yeti/twin are town then Blazade could just be trying to earn town points by going against a shot on me so if yeti flips town
MoodyCloud said:
On Texas being the first gunbearer : I can only conclude that mafia wants the people they see as experienced and a bigger threat to go first when their likelihood to fail is highest, instead of giving newer players the gun hoping they'll randomly kill a veteran player.

Doesn't really tell us much but it still makes the scum team's reasoning obvious and Texas misfiring on another solid player would work towards their objective the most.

For some reason I scumread Josh
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Found this while looking for who said Hitmonleet was their lock town, even I had forgotten about it lol
If you want to take interactions and reads at face value I guess that's something

I think fort should be a suspect because he wants to keep the living winners rule which helps an individual mafia the most.
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This from twin makes me think that he either decided to ditch his teammates right off the bat or is simply town, leaning towards the latter narrative.

Also, current Town bloc, from my gut feelings so far:

Me
Texas
Fort
Josh
Flyhn
Moody?
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Hitmonleet town bloc with at least 2 scum in it

Like this Empoof opening. Josh breaks towny for him too so far. Nothing too objectionable yet
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Early Blazade townreading Josh

why is "popcorn" town?
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Josh pressures Empoof to justify why he's townreading me

IMO speculation on why the mafia would choose one person over another is doomed to failure. Weakest they can think of not on the team, strongest to die first, someone middling in case we think the first two...

Unless someone can think of a compelling reason to WIFOM like that, can we not?
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Auraguardian dismisses posts about the first gunbearer chosen as wifom, in the same way Josh did before

Okay, I wish I could be surprised that this conversation didn't leave the same general loop as last I saw, but I *was* keeping tabs on the thread.

Anyway, going over it again, I noticed something odd - posts 62 and 63. Blazade's posts about policy lynching idlers and then saying someone is going to have to be a hero, but second best. The first time I saw that I didn't think much of it (in no small part due to having a Pathfinder game that was happening at that time), but now I think it might have been something else. It looks first like defeatism, saying we can't guess the mafia until it's 2 v mafia, but what if he's trying to direct us into that defeatism to make us not try as hard yet?

Granted, he (on the same page) said he misread the rules and thought a mislynch killed both and caused another choice. But EVEN THEN, it's not nearly guaranteed to go like that. And in post 112, he's in favor of shooting someone whenever to validate their reads, except idlers. Even if that made much sense (that way would be too easy for a gunbearer to misfire), it's a sharp turn from his line about policy lynching only being worth it on idlers.

I strongly FoS Blazade for that.
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Auraguardian makes a seemingly bs accusation on Blazade

I agree completely with you idea, but are you sure that "Give texas a gun and he'll shoot haruno" is more complex than "give it to a stronk player so that they die early"? I feel like those are both equally reasonable ideas, and that one is not necessarily more complex than the other.
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Fort agrees with Flyhn and arguably wifom

I still haven't found the post I'm looking for
 
Aura Guardian said:
I'll look at it again, alongside a few others who caught my attention - I noticed a string of Josh and Fort Colorcastle posts, and Empoof caught my eye when I was doing a cursory check to make sure it wasn't purely a bias.

FORT COLORCASTLE:
9 posts when I started writing this, 3 of them votes re: living winners.
The 4th post suggests shooting scumhunters last, and is pro-Haruno's hunting
The 5th briefly argues against Hitmonleet's sorta wall of text which was anti-Haruno and anti-Former Hope. Means Fort Colorcastle is established as pro-Haruno, and slightly pro-Former Hope. However, the shortness of his post, and fact that I found Hitmonleet's reasoning there a bit poor (only 1 of that long list is highly unlikely), I'm not gonna say it's full buddying yet.
Post 6 continues this, a brief elaboration on numbers.
The next 3 are just a bit of theory re: what sort of person to shoot

Verdict: has not yet come to conclusions, though the cycle is still young. Little contribution other than as anti-Hitmonleet. Slightly scum, and if he is, then one of Haruno and Former Hope probably are, too. If either of those two are flipped in any way, then Fort Colorcastle is slightly more in their direction.

BLAZADE:
Also 9 posts. A couple that aren't important (living winners, confirming)
The third post is actually even WORSE than I thought when I first read it. First calls for IF there's policy lynching, THEN going after "idlers like Flyhn." Then, and I missed this the previous time, argues that we shouldn't telegraph our potential lynch thoughts too much. Okay, I can see a tiny point there, since it prevents us from having to WIFOM "why did they pick this person" like we have already with Texas, but isn't that information better for our gunman to make judgments based on?
The fourth is that go hero post. More on that below; fifth post justifies it as a misread, implying he thought the hero scenario was just a probable case.
The sixth is pro-Empoof, backing up Josh. As of writing this, I have not yet gotten to either of them on my list yet.
Post 7: suggests shooting someone to validate their reads, EXCEPT as an idler. I can see now why Texas feels I misread what Blazade said, and I suppose I did. That does not change the fact that this post feels off, compared to his third post. Any policy shooting on idlers I can see to get rid of the (I hope this is the right word) chaff would make this more efficient later, and remove scapegoats, but it would also give the mafia more time to plan and analyze everything. And the idlers would likely forget to shoot anyone in the first place, which would cause another mafia-selected gunbearer and bring us back to square one, only smaller.
Post 8, his reply to my accusation! Names his reasoning in fourth post as a false assumption, or a worst-case scenario, says he's "not defeatist except in the D1 NOC sense." He also says that shooting the actives to validate their reads (which he previously said was good logic) can be delayed for those making good reads and connections, but he also says he reinforced the point by saying that. I don't see how what he said before could have implied that delay.
9th: can't objectively read Asek and Yeti.

Verdict: Doesn't feel right at all. Could just not click with my thought process, and the contradictions could be well within standard human error. But it feels like a forming pattern to me, so Scummy, and if he's scum then we should take a hard look at Asek, Empoof, and Yeti (and a few extra glances at Josh). I also feel his early posts mean there's no chance that he and Flyhn are both mafia, so if one is, then other is perfectly clean.

JOSH:
(Oh, no. 29 posts already. This'll be a pain...)
1-5, 9: early game junk pings and stuff re: living winners.
6: Argues against my post for policy lynching Haruno. Against policy lynching in general, even. Reads like an early attempt to steer the conversation to something useful (which is what my suggestion was meant to provoke anyway)
7: more pro-Haruno
8: Says Texas should ask, but never be asked. Seems reasonable.
10: Volunteers to be shot mid-game so he can scumhunt that way. Could be bluffing as mafia, could be honest town. Considering Deathnote NOC, I agree he should be shot, maybe around then even.
11: asks Blazade for an explanation on something re policy lynching. It's that shouldn't put our lynch ideas out too much post.
12: Joins in with how Fort Colorcastle called out Hitmonleet's bad list with the 'at least one is mafia' idea. I'm just gonna say he and Fort Colorcastle are linked against Hitmonleet now.
13: I had to spend a bit of reading the prior posts to get this. Is against calling Blazade clear on incompetence-over-malice reasoning. I'd be against him here, except see above re: Blazade's pattern.
14: Null on Fort, says Hitmonleet is scum
It's about this point I realized I missed a post somewhere, either ahead or behind. I shoulda done this five posts at a time, instead of opening all tabs at once. As such, my numbering before MAY BE OFF
Slightly pro-Haruno, then intensifies that view against Asek's question
Then argues a case against Empoof's read on MoodyCloud. Curiously, I don't see a response there.
Argues for a potential later shooting of Haruno, for similar reasons to why I agree with his prior post on volunteering to be shot.
Answers Asek's question, suggesting that, in a vacuum, Twin would be a candidate to shoot.
Snarks about Empoof-Former Hope WIFOM. More anti-WIFOM, then a segment of posts that's ??? for everyone involved. In this, he reads fh and winter as scum, me and hitmonleet as town (remarking his change in position re hitmonleet)

Verdict: Before his post changing views on hitmonleet, I was having trouble reading him. However, he's not giving much reasoning behind his reads, and was willing to change. This matches his play in Deathnote, so I'm going to say he's TOWN. If the gun falls into the hands of someone not so great at scum hunting, maybe he or Haruno as he suggested are good targets to get it back into good management.

Between him and Hitmonleet, there is AT MOST one scum. Yes, odds are in my favor, but I'm quite sure that at least one is village based on this (most likely Josh if not both, but if he's NOT town, then his changing stance on Hitmonleet wouldn't make sense if Hitmonleet is also mafia). I'd also like to say that there's a non-negligible link between him and both Haruno and Fort Colorcastle. If I'm wrong and he's mafia, then one of them is, too. If one of them is mafia, then he's instead only slightly townie. More on Empoof below.

EMPOOF:
33 posts. Already. Ow.
Spends some early posts saying Josh/Yeti scum and MoodyCloud/Blazade town. Likes MoodyCloud against Josh. Is also against shooting Haruno, then asks Flyhn why he thinks we shouldn't. Then adds UncleSam and Hitmonleet to his townreads. Sorta pro-winter-delta?
Then ??? I don't know for sure, but taken as closely to literally as I can, looks like he admits to Blazade that he was just trying to pressure Josh? Or changed his mind.
Argues for the "popcorn" post being townie, due to "air of not giving a hoot" - I strongly disagree here. That would be more mafia attempt to look like they're there when they really aren't doing much.
Some more joke posts.
Well, those posts were usually short

Verdict: Leaning slightly scummy, but I could easily see him as postcount++ town with reasonable discussion if not ideas. Would be a good target in a turn or two to validate his reads per other users.
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Interesting "Josh is probably town and there's maximum 1 scum among Leet and him"
Also scumread on scumFort
And keep pushing on Blazade
And scumread Empoof but we know it was wrong

He ties scumFort to one of Haruno/Formerhope being scum too, and the argument provided to scumread seemed fairly shallow
Pushes strongly on Blazade while tying him to a scum Asek/Empoof/Yeti three of which are among the townier players atm
Links Josh and Fort against Leet
 
Jalmont said:
Hitmonleet why shouldnt i shoot u
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Well, because I'm town.

Also, at least in my opinion, there are better shots at this time (Former, maybe Twin, in your position, Moody). They'd reveal more insight into players, you (probably) won't die off of them, and it gives more info in general.

Walrein said:
hey Hitmonleet earlier today you said you thought moody was town but a few days ago you had him as one of your top scumreads. what changed? are the original reasons for scumreading moody still valid concerns? also what are those reasons lol
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Well, the main reason I townread Moody was more of a result of my reads, and with the current scumteam I was pondering, it wouldn't make much sense with how he had been playing (it would have made a scumteam with ~4-5 Idlers, which is a bit too many) and with the Pancake and King flips, I felt more confident in another Mafia member laying low, and with the general feel of his posts, it's a likely chance that he's scum, although I'm not entirely confident in it. I'm going to look over all of his posts and get a better picture of which Moody we have here.
 
UncleSam said:
hi sorry I have a lot more important things on my plate rn than this game

I don't really know how to approach this game because tbqh we don't even get to lynch so anyone can pressure anyone without it meaning jack shit unless the specific gunbearer is feeling similarly

Also there's legit nothing to 'pressure' off of because again there's no lynch so it's not like most people are really doing anything they're just blathering

I guess I'm a bit apathetic towards NOCs and this in particular because there's not much to talk about outside of 'I THINK X WOULD GIVE Y THE GUN BECAUSE Z' where Z is some spurious armchair psychology and X is someone who you hold a personal grudge against

I guess I may as well just act like it's a normal NOC in terms of how people buddy each other though:
-Hitmonleet and Aura Guardian both are trying to be proactive and analyze things in a meaningful manner. I think that both are mostly pulling things out of their ass but at least they're trying
-Fort Colorcastle seems to be trying really hard but not saying much, I think he is a definite scum read for me and imo probably the best shot today in terms of odds of mafia
-Haruno is Haruno. Honestly I think a decent play might be to shoot someone who Haruno wants this cycle that isn't Haruno because I think that's the best way to determine his alliance; also I think that he would have a decent chance of picking mafia if he is village while also having as good a chance as anyone of bussing a teammate if mafia and pushed to it. I think that shooting him would be a bit of a mistake given he apparently has a history with Texas (?) that others might know about
-Empoof reads town to me, I don't think he plays this ridiculously without having nothing to fear
-Twin is behaving a bit strangely this game, not posting much and when he does post it's mostly fluff; someone more in tune with Twin's life should comment on whether Twin has been more busy than usual lately
-I've got no read on Da Letter El yet but that should change pretty soon, I tend to find him suspicious in NOCs and most of the time I'm right so take that for what it's worth (nothing)
-Yeti is a qt
-Asek I have like no memories of meaningful posts in this game which is a bit weird, I guess I would've expected otherwise so I'd say I'd wanna pressure him more
-Flyhn has been afk as far as I can tell
-Former Hope I mostly remember as posting bandwagon shit in this thread so more pressure on him would be good too. Same with winter-delta
-Jalmont is either resigned town or resigned mafia, I'd say pressure him more but eh not sure it would amount to anything; he's experienced enough I'd throw him on the pressure pile after Fort Colorcastle and Asek
-Blazade I don't like his play so far, but hell I wouldn't like my play so far either so shrug. I don't think he'd be a good shot and again I'd say maybe a bit more pressure but WTF IS THERE TO PRESSURE OFF OF ITG
-Josh I don't like nearly as much as Texas does but I'd throw him in the null category next to Haruno. Haven't seen a ton out of him lately (aka last two pages) though?
-Has shubaka even done anything? I'd be ok shooting him tbh he seems like the sort of person who might gun Texas
-DeathbyWobbuffett is AFK I'm pretty sure so let's ping him here DeathByWobbuffet and see if he responds; if he doesn't then I'd say consider shooting him next day but probably not worthwhile this day
-MoodyCloud I haven't seen anything from lately though he was more active earlier, which is a bit weird to me. No clue as to his typical schedule or timezone though. He's been active enough I wouldn't shoot him though.
-UncleSam is the greatest mafia player in the universe and you are all fortunate to have been allowed to play in a game with him tbh

tl;dr I think that Fort Colorcastle, Asek, Former Hope, winter-delta, and shubaka is the pool of people I'd shoot from (roughly in order) in order to shoot scum. If part of our interest is in preserving discussion rather than simply aiming at the most likely mafia than perhaps winter-delta and shubaka move up the list while Fort Colorcastle moves down.

Also I think that Texas should pressure at least 2-3 idle players under threat of getting shot then shoot whoever he thinks is most likely to be mafia regardless of activity. Imo the value of 'preserving discussion' is meaningless itg because if you shoot someone who is village they don't die but you do; the result is that if you are contributing to discussion (like Texas is), then you should be trying to shoot someone who you think has the best odds of being mafia and therefore keeping you around for another cycle if you shoot them. I'd be most comfortable shooting someone from the above list though Flyhn and DeathbyWobbuffett should be added to the list if both continue their hardcore idling
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Three known scum among the 5 in Unclesam's shot pool does make him look better though a 5man shot pool is fairly vague and easy to throw out as scum

In the post below the one quoted Fort proceeds to discredit Unclesam without committing to scumreading him then says some nonsense about how shooting and idler is bad. This interaction while possibly being 2 scums, makes me reconsider shooting Unclesam asap since it seems that Fort hasn't been behaving this aggressively in his interactions with Josh, usually going along with what he said/making noncommittal comments on the game
 
Fort Colorcastle said:
Everyone seems to be scumreading me, so texas should just give me the gun so I can shoot UncleSam.
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Well I'll interpret this as another good thing for Unclesam

Also yeti seem to have been pressuring Empoof a lot around page 10 and making sure no one was being generally town read. Posts often being about meta or how town shouldn't play rather than advocating for a shot target.

Unclesam out of my shot pool, Yeti out of my town pool
 
Blazade said:
Reading relationships is important but reading them pre flip is also a huge trap especially because people aren't stupid and will start to distance appropriately.

Not reading a lot that's alignment indicative yet, this is some good discussion but it just reads like people are comfortable talking so far. Like even Aura Guardian who has taken some leaps of faith in his scumreads in my opinion he took weird logic in Deathnote (as scum, but truly believing that it was town logic at the time and using it to bus).

Moody Cloud reads less comfortable but I guess life's hard when you don't get to be Town Watcher every NOC.

Uncle Sam is doing the Uncle Sam thing, no reason to be suspicious of it yet.

DeathbyWobbuffet please do better this game than every other NOC you've done otherwise I will shoot you when I get the gun.

Hitmonleet reads ok, definitely less awkward than Deathnote but hard to judge the learning curve here.
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Fairly prudent read list without any of the scum flips being disclosed
 
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