NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

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Josh what do you make of hawkie's eod absence? this was one of your main selling points to me/others on leet being scum was his lurking eod but what do you think about hawkie's eod participation?
his activity was low in general, it's different from dodging deliberately. I wasn't overly enthused by it but it's not directly incriminating akin to leet
 
blazade

rvs ; pblade ; vote 1
mid d1 ; moody ; vote 1
mid d1 ; ullar ; vote 1
mid d1 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2
mid d1 ; unvote
mid d1 ; ullar ; vote 2
sod2 ; king ; vote 3
late-eod2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 6 (note: this is the final vote placed onto the d2 leet bandwagon, ~200 posts before deadline hits, outside of king's preservation vote later)
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 1
mid d3 ; unvote

blazade then went afk for his speedrun and was since subbed

analysis:
blazade places a critical vote onto the d2 leet wagon that puts him at l-2 i believe? there were 14 people alive d2 so majority should've been 8
blazade kicks off d3 parking his vote on leet then removes it mid-d3
blazade then goes v/la due to irl and never places his vote (either again or back onto leet)
blazade had a lot more movement d1 then d2 just parked his vote on 2 established wagons
blazade never votes ullar after d1 even when the slot gets other votes
blazade has never been on the winning wagon (2 mislynch 1 scum)

i see blazade's voting pattern very similarly to hawkie's, actually. neither has any eod activity on any of the three days. their last votes on d2 were around the same time onto the same wagon. blazade's more directly would've led to hitmonleet's lynch. neither makes an attempt to switch off to save him. they both jumped around more d1 + onto ullar.

in fact their voting is almost scarily identical.

both end on ullar d1 last voting in the middle of it.
both end on hitmonleet d2 last voting near when eod2 starts.
both voted hitmonleet d3 then unvoted and ended d3 with no vote.

this is kind of a creepy similarity. i dont see it happening as scum where they go "hey lets vote identically to each other" unless hard bussing leet to clean both of them was part of the strategy. its just extremely weird to me that two villagers would have such near-identical progressions.

the only difference is hawkie rvs'd walrein and jalmont and blazade mid d1'd moody. otherwise the timing and placement of their votes is all veeeery similar.

 
knights

rvs ; moody ; vote 1
rvs ; unvote
eod1 ; haruno ; vote 3
sod2 ; shubaka ; vote 1
mid d2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2 (note: hawkie had just unvoted leet perhaps making this more appealing as a bus vote?)
mid d3 ; empoof ; vote 2
eod3 ; unvote
sod4 ; asek ; vote 1

pretty unremarkable. for how much analysis and how many notes knights has taken unless he has a very similar voting style to me wherein i tend to be more reserved and don't use it for pressure, he has left a LOT of pressure ungiven

analysis:
knights parks his vote on empoof for quite a while on 2 days
knights votes hitmonleet right after hawkie unvoted making leet +2 instead of +3
knights never unvotes hitmonleet or makes other attempts to save him
knights does not vote hitmonleet d3 and is on eod3 ; i think he attempted an explanation for this but i dont remember what it was
knights has only voted my null or higher reads
knights has been on one winning wagon (1 mislynch)

im gonna reiterate knights has a tendency to park his vote and then regurgitate analysis from his notes rather than apply additional pressure, either to his vote or his other possible scumreads. he also seems to cultivate a small quantity of them at any given time. when empoof claimed bpv today it almost seemed manufactured he came up with asek and moody as his 2 new reads.

that said i see a few similarities to my own playstyle in knights' play so i don't give a scumread for this behavior. i do think he has drifted by with placing throwaway votes onto empoof as an excuse to not get too involved in the wagons.
 
paperblade / pancake

mid d1 ; moody ; vote 2
mid d1 ; hitmonleet ; vote 3
late-eod1 ; king ; vote 4
mid d2 ; ironic double ; vote 1
late-eod2 ; texas ; vote 3
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 3

analysis:
paperblade is extremely opportunistic and wagony and never placed a level 1 vote before subbing out
pancake's only vote 1 was hard scumread ironic double who he has never voted again
this slot in general is very wagony
this slot does not change its votes much and pancake parked on leet all d3
this slot has been on one winning wagon (1 scum)

there is a lot to dislike about the p slot's voting patterns. extremely wagony outside of the ironic double push that was never supported by a vote again after pancake's initial vote. was not on either mislynch but did park on hitmonleet. if this is a partner slot i think its voting pattern makes more sense than blazade+hawkie's twinning pattern. doesn't vote leet d2, isn't attached to king's mislynch, does park on leet d3 when it appears his lynch is inevitable to get towncred.

i wish this slot did more. looking at the votes it is very scummy. this is by far the most mafia-looking vote pattern of the 4 voters ive analyzed so far.
 
former hope / ironic double

rvs ; asek ; vote 2
rvs ; hawkie ; vote 1
mid d1 ; unvote
mid d2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 4

analysis:
this slot has done almost nothing all game
this slot has only voted hitmonleet since ironic double subbed in
former hope did not engage in any votes outside of rvs
this slot has been on one winning wagon (1 scum)
this slot has never voted any of the rival town wagons (haruno ullar king)

i have a very strong gut feeling from these votes and the general game that this slot has been attempting to avoid all ties to mislynch wagons and only go on scum. former hope ignores hitmonleet in the votes unlike some of our other spicy wagoners and ironic double comes in and votes hitmonleet only. never voted anyone else.

former hope posts enough scummy-looking crap as town that i think he would try and distinguish himself as towny by not being on any of the d1 mislynch wagons. since scum!fh knows all of haruno, king and ullar are fails he just unvotes and idles through eod1. id subs into a position where hitmonleet has been pushed by presumably 3+ towns by that point so he just hops onto that wagon. id guess the writing is on the wall for the scumteam hitmonleet is gonna bite the dust sooner rather than later. hitmonleet gets to l-2 at the start of d3.

id has done nothing of note himself and his votes show hes been fine to plop onto leet and not interact in any meaningful way beyond that.

i am pretty sure he was hoping to buy towncred by bussing leet so hard after seeing town was already onto him, which matches fh avoiding mislynches.

idk i mean this slot is relatively inactive but this voting pattern just screams "give me towncred i only wagoned the scum!!"
 
unvote

vote ironic double

i want more pressure onto this slot to contribute something and interact with the game. seeing the vote pattern laid out i really dislike it.

fort dont think you can slink off into nowhere. i will move my vote back to you if you do start idling. i like your contributions. keep them up.
 
fort kind of has to be bc hes the wagon. this goes 2 ways, if hes scum he could just idle to oblivion uselessly kind of like leet did but his teams in such a bad position i dont think he would so the activity is NAI. it does seem like hes invested in this and his self-awareness his slot is scummy strikes me as... maybe too high level of a thought for a newer player?

My first mafia game was mid-decemeber 2013, on PS Mafia. Sure people don't see it as good play but certainly its better than the shit people do when they have no internet with their heads down around a bench at night.
http://pokemonshowdown.com/users/fortbluecastle
I made that account a few days after joining PS mafia.

>.> you were on my scumteam in popcorn you knew that my scumteam didn't write my posts for me.
 
unvote

vote ironic double

i want more pressure onto this slot to contribute something and interact with the game. seeing the vote pattern laid out i really dislike it.

fort dont think you can slink off into nowhere. i will move my vote back to you if you do start idling. i like your contributions. keep them up.

I spent my time between after school and going home rereading the best scenes in Crooked Kingdom by Leigh Bardugo. My favorite scene is still the 2nd-to-last one.
 
texas

rvs ; haruno ; vote 1
mid d1 ; jalmont ; vote 2
mid d1 ; king ; vote 2
mid d1 ; knights ; vote 2
late-eod1 ; hitmonleet ; vote 1
eod1 ; ullar ; vote 4
eod1 ; haruno ; vote 7
sod2 ; king ; vote 2
late-eod2 ; hitmonleet ; vote 5
eod2 ; king ; vote 5
sod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 2
mid d3 ; josh ; vote 1
mid d3 ; ironic double ; vote 3
mid d3 ; blazade ; vote 3
eod3 ; hitmonleet ; vote 4
sod4 ; yeti ; vote 1

hm.

analysis:
texas also has an aversion to being the level 1 voter
texas voted 2 people who pushed leet d1 (1 onward fairly heavily) and 1 who pushed him d2-onward on d3 (josh/id/blazade)
texas himself has voted hitmonleet all 3 days, ending on him 1 of those
texas has been on all three winning wagons (2 mislynch 1 scum)
texas voting off hitmonleet eod2 very much looks like a save attempt. he started the day voting king so scum!texas would feel fairly secure the switch would be explainable
texas moves his vote around a lot on odd-numbered days but stagnates it on even days
texas has voted in every eod

i think texas is the first one ive gotten to who has been on all 3 winning wagons. his voting pattern feels very wagony and opportunistic to me the same way paperblade's did. he is only the level 1 voter 4 times and leet had some other votes cast on him d1 so this wasnt a novel vote, exactly.

his eod presence is really good, much higher than anyone above's. that said, you could say that his vote movement saves ullar on d1 and hitmonleet on d2. whether this was town!texas's intention or not (i think he was just trying to avoid ties) he moves off the leet wagon when it was winning against king. hitmonleet's wagon picked up steam first but was also at 6 when texas moved off, tying them at 5-5 i THINK.

i think his votes dont make a ton of sense, either, compared to each other. 3 people who have pushed leet then votes leet? ehhh. he does have a lot of votes though and town!texas uses his vote to apply pressure to people by putting them at a vote level that could start a wagon.

his mid d3 votes almost look like they ARE trying to start rival wagons to leet's. when nothing sticks he goes back to leet at eod3. scum!texas's reasons for this are obvious. town!texas probably does this behavior as well just to apply pressure.

his d4 is the worst imo, might b biased but he parked his vote on me at the start of the day and both has done little to convince anyone ELSE to vote me or done little to explore not-me vote avenues. his proposed teammates of mine dont even make sense.

i think texas is very much early unclesam meta, especially in fire and ice. where if you scumread him then you MUST be scum because he cant see from anyone else's perspective how someone who doesn't know his role pm's contents doesn't know he is 100% town. josh also kinda does this but texas is worse. i think a lot of egos will play with this mindset when their game isnt honed and once they become Woke this is a really piss poor strategy they stop scumreading anyone who distrusts them. thats very much what hes doing here. his whole argument against me is just omgus. he voted ullar d1 tho so its consistent he has dislike for this slot.

idk texas has played a fair few games in circus but not with me so im not sure Exactly how good he is. i think as scum he wouldnt be SO obvious hes hopping onto many wagons. i have a hard time reconciling his daily pushes onto leet with the leet save d2. his response is gonna be he just WASNT saving leet!!!! but come on that vote shift objectively looks exactly like a save. i say the same thing about josh's earlier king-leet-king bounce. however. that movement was 70 posts before texas's. empoof is gonna cast the deciding vote 45 after texas switches but until that point sticking on king was a viable choice for texas.

iunno this slot is complicated to me. his pushes are Bad imo but his vote pressure and eod presence is good. his eod2 i strongly dislike. i am not sure he makes sense as a leet partner pushing him since d1 then saving him d2. id think hed have just stuck on leet for the dank towncred. i do dislike how texas said maybe leet was jailkept and the mafia would bus him as a result.

a. that could've only happened after n2 as their n1 kill went off meaning d3 is the earliest they'd assume he's TRULY gone
b. he had been pushed both days why would the mafia ever use him as their kill?

it felt very much like a decoy. because it has absolutely no explanation for the dudes pushing leet d1 and d2.

iunno this is getting great wally so i'll wrap it up with i think there are reasons to scumread texas from his votes and actions and reasons to townread texas. im pretty unimpressed with how he just sits around with his vote placed and goes "anyone else wanna vote this????" without making a case. nobody is buying i am mafia from his vote because a. i am not mafia and i delight that the intelligent members of the town can recognize that as well as the scum who want to avoid wagoning another mislynch b. he has done zero analysis of why i am mafia, why i could be teammates with his other scumreads or explained he's just looking for scum not a solve, or driven things to warrant voting me.

i guess its good for town someone with a bad read cbf to push it. kek.
 
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