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NOC Animal Mafia ~Game Over~
- Thread starter Scarlet Firefly
- Start date
- Status
tl;dr jordan's second post in the game is a vote on mithril that is extremely defensive. his vote is purely because mithril voted for him and jordan attempts to deflect to the other wagons that currently exist. the motivation for this post is heavily one of self-preservation which is typically a scum motivation.
in 174, jordan places a weak vote that is easy to justify against thunderballz with time to the deadline, despite having other active scum reads he could be pressuring for information. to quote, "is this town!jordan's strongest read? does he vote for tballz here rather than pushing asek who he outright states is a scum read? I think i maintain the scum read on jordan which is awkward because i agree with a lot of the rest of this post."
a jordan flip also heavily implicates blazade' alignment as his partner, scum or town, by virtue of jordan's soft defense of blazade and his being the third and tying vote on blazade's counterwagon.
if jordan flips scum (and blazade is his partner) that also clears jalmont/asek/hawkie in my mind based on the reads i've developed in other parts of the research
in 174, jordan places a weak vote that is easy to justify against thunderballz with time to the deadline, despite having other active scum reads he could be pressuring for information. to quote, "is this town!jordan's strongest read? does he vote for tballz here rather than pushing asek who he outright states is a scum read? I think i maintain the scum read on jordan which is awkward because i agree with a lot of the rest of this post."
a jordan flip also heavily implicates blazade' alignment as his partner, scum or town, by virtue of jordan's soft defense of blazade and his being the third and tying vote on blazade's counterwagon.
if jordan flips scum (and blazade is his partner) that also clears jalmont/asek/hawkie in my mind based on the reads i've developed in other parts of the research
No but I can do that too if you’d like
Not on my end. I'm guessing there's a reluctance to hear me on the other end related to that but I don't see anything outwardly related.
10-15 minutes tops to read it. Not asking more from you than that.
Fine. Let me know when you've decided to start playing the game again and we'll work on trying to actually hammer out some reads on who belongs where rather than ignoring a bunch of work that supports that.
Jesus christ dude
I'm going out of my way to try and be civil with you and to try and engage with you and to try and get you to work with me in this game
what is wrong with you that you're being this fucking caustic
what is wrong with you that you're being this fucking caustic
Feel free to infract me Blazade Da Letter El if you feel me to be too caustic. I don’t really feel I am but yea
Alright so let me just say off the bat that I do not agree with using this as a substitute. Whatever arguments there are against wall posts and I know them very well, they are hugely valuable in seeing how people's reads progress over time and gives major insight into someone's mentality. Read progression is a very valid way of scum/town hunting. That being said because I really don't want this game to exist in a situation where we're both town and just actively opposing each other I'm going to go out of my way and summarize the overall thoughts and progression on each person including why I think jordan is scum and why I think you're more likely scum than the other people in your grouping of which I believe one is scum
also reads lists are useless without post references so take my reads list and then go look at the posts i reference in my wall to get the context please
also reads lists are useless without post references so take my reads list and then go look at the posts i reference in my wall to get the context please
I'm watching this play out; I obviously see hostility but I don't think lines have been crossed by anyone here.
Just to have it down and not as a statement that this has already been crossed, Jalmont/Texas please try not to actively antagonize one another beyond what would reasonably be expected of disagreement. Obviously mafia games are generally going to have disagreements and value judgments thrown around etc. so I won't say anything as childish as "play nice" or whatever, but try being understanding, etc.
actually before I get to that, on a second, less emotionally clouded look, this specific post has some interesting thought behind it that suggests town!jalmont
also some scum stuff but more town
will come back to this later but, duly noted
To answer this specifically:
a) I'm way better at town hunting than scum hunting
b) The setup is 13:4 so I would hope I don't have a lot of scum suspects
c) If the six people I don't have a read on would start to post more I'm sure that situation would change
Lynch DurzaOffTopic
Earlio's reaction to my post seems remarkably passive and I think it leans more to a scum trying to avoid attention to himself.
Earlio: His first post in this game pings me as a very towny entrance, in this specific context, for this specific game. Earlio has been scum for a large number of games in a row on this site and I can very easily get inside the mindset where he posts about celebrating not being scum for once due to having a similar streak on mafiascum. While it's true that this post could be easily faked, I don't think Earlio is that skilled at deception or that this is the kind of route he would take to try and get town cred, as if he were thinking of faking it he would surely know how easily it could be faked. Instead I read it as genuine appreciation for being an actual townie. From my perspective, town!Texas wants to talk about his streak as a funny thing and to yay post but scum!Texas doesn't want to bring attention to being scum all the time and create those associations and I think that translates to earlio here. Everything else he's posted up until 337 has been standard earlio fare, weak town/scum play, no clear alignment indication, standard meta for him. Finally, is post 337 has a very clear and direct townslip that I'm not going to identify for obvious reasons (not putting him at risk/not giving the mafia a bead on what I'll town read).
Hawkie: I start off with some minor suspicion on Hawkie's entrance due to his veteran soft claim that could also be a gambit Haruno has pulled as scum to deter night targeting by town, but I don't find this to be a likely possibility. In 86 I decided that a Hawkie+Asek scum team wasn't possible because if scum!Hawkie is choosing to distance from his partner he doesn't do it in a way that can directly lead to a growing Asek wagon gaining momentum. Obviously validated by Asek flipping town. On a similar tack, Hawkie and Blazade are highly unlikely to be a scum team based on 124 and the direct suspicion Hawkie places on Blazade. Given the situation where Hawkie is highly unlikely to be in a scum team with either Asek or Blazade based on his aggression towards them, it creates a situation where the probability is simply that he is town (or an aggressive scum). Based on these pushes (and Asek's flip), Hawkie's and Blazade's alignments can be seen as likely contingent on each other. I think in the world where Hawkie is flipped as town, Blazade also flips as town; in the world where Blazade flips as town Hawkie is more likely scum (pushing on a strong townie who made a weak post); and in the worlds where either flips scum the other is definitely town. Hawkie also makes an empty post town reading Earlio immediately after, something for which there's little reason for scum to do and something I also agree with. After Asek flipped green I also checked out his reads, and he had Hawkie as a town read off meta which carries more credence coming from confirmed town.
Blazade: see Hawkie to some extent. To build on that, Blazade's 84 looks like the kind of post that town love to attack for being relatively empty of content while looking to coast (and this is exactly what Hawkie attacks), hence the kind of post that smart scum don't typically make. Also looks very similar to the kind of post I make all the time as town when I have just a couple of thoughts I want to throw into the ether. 108 is a clear indication that Blazade+Jalmont isn't a viable scum team which results in a situation where we have causal links between Hawkie <--> Asek, Hawkie <--> Blazade, Asek <--> Jalmont, and Blazade <--> Jalmont where of these four users there's a high likelihood of there being exactly one scum in this grouping and therefore, based on strong town reads on Hawkie and Blazade, and Asek's flip, I think Jalmont is the more likely scum. Later on, in 220, Blazade introduces good content about Jalmont that shows his progression of reads and argues for town!Jalmont, before putting a vote on xnadrojx, a scummy slot that had yet to be pressured.
Asek: Not really relevant anymore because flipped town but the tl;dr of this was that I was very cautious of his slot as a lot of his early game were posts that can be faked by scum without too much effort, I determined that a Jalmont+Asek team was unlikely due to the timing of a Jalmont call out post on Asek and that an Asek town flip made the odds of a Jalmont scum flip significantly more likely.
Twin: Hasn't made a lot of posts with a lot of depth, so not a lot to specifically analyze, but his posting style and voting habits are directly out of the town meta I've personally seen (and been the subject of) time and time again.
Whydon: This is a weaker town read, mostly based on his post 104, his suggestion to look at the people who jumped on the Haruno d1 wagon was a good one and town motivated, backed up by his noticing apricity's naked vote here which had otherwise been ignored - without mentioning apricity at all, scum!Whydon has every reason to actively push apricity for a lynch at this point but he does not.
Apricity: Apricity is the reason why you read wall posts. I started out thinking he was scum. My read developed on him to think he's town.
His post 64 was a naked vote jumping on the Haruno wagon. To quote the wall: "He has to know that having his entrance be contentless onto a policy lynch looks super bad right? Like if he's town you'd think he'd want to avoid that obvious issue unless he's not that self-aware and thinks that the pressure wagon is the way to go. But then it's more likely that scum!Apricity sees an easy entrance to make without having to commit because "oh it's just a policy lynch" unless they foresee the consequences in which case they wouldn't make that post. So basically I can't find any reason as either alignment that apricity would make this his entrance. Which i think on balance of probabilities make him more likely town by virtue of being less self-aware? I think the important follow on to this is to see how he approaches future lynches. If he shows a lot of support for pressure wagons this aligns with the town motivations of apricity whereas if he shows favour for pushing relatively easy lynches this aligns more with the scum motivation, hopefully in situations where those two things don't coincide."
Accordingly I followed up in 116 and 121, where the exact motivations for his votes were unclear but where much more likely to be pressure votes as both votes were against people who had directly spoken against him (Jalmont and Mithril) which more directly aligned with the town!Apricity narrative. Later on in 145 he had an exchange with Hawkie with a shocking degree of abrasiveness, unprompted and therefore unlikely to come from scum. His point #3 directly provides the context for the sudden emotional outburst and the outburst if true is one that's driven from a towny place. In total, he started off with a seemingly bad entrance but further context has clarified his posts somewhat and given me reason to town read him.
Aubisio / Moody / Knights / Durza / 3p1k / Durza / Haruno: have not posted enough for me to get a good read on them or are people I have a hard time reading correctly in general (Moody and Knights)
Jalmont: This is a hard read. There are posts that have definitive town pings, such as where he tells no one to highlight Asek, post 173 where he says to vote Moody and then votes Aubisio, and then post 390 where the focus is so strongly self-absorbed and concerned with how he is being read by one person that almost always comes from a town mindset (where you're operating as an individual and not a team) that I'm definitely not set in this read and am looking for reasons to shift him into my town pile.
Except there's also post 114 and the whole ties he has to Asek, Hawkie, and Blazade that strongly suggest that of that group one of their member is scum. To quote: "Tonally Jalmont's post suggests one of two things, either he's a town who's having a clear head and wants to talk through a potential town ally for better scumhunting or he's a scum who wants to diminish a potential argument against him. Nothing concrete but in the interactions and posts from the Asek/Blazade/Jalmont slots i'm getting scum and town pings on each slot but also a probability that none are scum partners (albeit without evidence either way in the Blazade+Asek case) which somewhat suggests to me that Jalmont is scum and Asek/Blazade are town interacting with scum.
In summary, I think Jalmont is scum but I won't lynch them now because I'm only confident to about 60%.
Xnadrojx: see post 383
Hawkie: I start off with some minor suspicion on Hawkie's entrance due to his veteran soft claim that could also be a gambit Haruno has pulled as scum to deter night targeting by town, but I don't find this to be a likely possibility. In 86 I decided that a Hawkie+Asek scum team wasn't possible because if scum!Hawkie is choosing to distance from his partner he doesn't do it in a way that can directly lead to a growing Asek wagon gaining momentum. Obviously validated by Asek flipping town. On a similar tack, Hawkie and Blazade are highly unlikely to be a scum team based on 124 and the direct suspicion Hawkie places on Blazade. Given the situation where Hawkie is highly unlikely to be in a scum team with either Asek or Blazade based on his aggression towards them, it creates a situation where the probability is simply that he is town (or an aggressive scum). Based on these pushes (and Asek's flip), Hawkie's and Blazade's alignments can be seen as likely contingent on each other. I think in the world where Hawkie is flipped as town, Blazade also flips as town; in the world where Blazade flips as town Hawkie is more likely scum (pushing on a strong townie who made a weak post); and in the worlds where either flips scum the other is definitely town. Hawkie also makes an empty post town reading Earlio immediately after, something for which there's little reason for scum to do and something I also agree with. After Asek flipped green I also checked out his reads, and he had Hawkie as a town read off meta which carries more credence coming from confirmed town.
Blazade: see Hawkie to some extent. To build on that, Blazade's 84 looks like the kind of post that town love to attack for being relatively empty of content while looking to coast (and this is exactly what Hawkie attacks), hence the kind of post that smart scum don't typically make. Also looks very similar to the kind of post I make all the time as town when I have just a couple of thoughts I want to throw into the ether. 108 is a clear indication that Blazade+Jalmont isn't a viable scum team which results in a situation where we have causal links between Hawkie <--> Asek, Hawkie <--> Blazade, Asek <--> Jalmont, and Blazade <--> Jalmont where of these four users there's a high likelihood of there being exactly one scum in this grouping and therefore, based on strong town reads on Hawkie and Blazade, and Asek's flip, I think Jalmont is the more likely scum. Later on, in 220, Blazade introduces good content about Jalmont that shows his progression of reads and argues for town!Jalmont, before putting a vote on xnadrojx, a scummy slot that had yet to be pressured.
Asek: Not really relevant anymore because flipped town but the tl;dr of this was that I was very cautious of his slot as a lot of his early game were posts that can be faked by scum without too much effort, I determined that a Jalmont+Asek team was unlikely due to the timing of a Jalmont call out post on Asek and that an Asek town flip made the odds of a Jalmont scum flip significantly more likely.
Twin: Hasn't made a lot of posts with a lot of depth, so not a lot to specifically analyze, but his posting style and voting habits are directly out of the town meta I've personally seen (and been the subject of) time and time again.
Whydon: This is a weaker town read, mostly based on his post 104, his suggestion to look at the people who jumped on the Haruno d1 wagon was a good one and town motivated, backed up by his noticing apricity's naked vote here which had otherwise been ignored - without mentioning apricity at all, scum!Whydon has every reason to actively push apricity for a lynch at this point but he does not.
Apricity: Apricity is the reason why you read wall posts. I started out thinking he was scum. My read developed on him to think he's town.
His post 64 was a naked vote jumping on the Haruno wagon. To quote the wall: "He has to know that having his entrance be contentless onto a policy lynch looks super bad right? Like if he's town you'd think he'd want to avoid that obvious issue unless he's not that self-aware and thinks that the pressure wagon is the way to go. But then it's more likely that scum!Apricity sees an easy entrance to make without having to commit because "oh it's just a policy lynch" unless they foresee the consequences in which case they wouldn't make that post. So basically I can't find any reason as either alignment that apricity would make this his entrance. Which i think on balance of probabilities make him more likely town by virtue of being less self-aware? I think the important follow on to this is to see how he approaches future lynches. If he shows a lot of support for pressure wagons this aligns with the town motivations of apricity whereas if he shows favour for pushing relatively easy lynches this aligns more with the scum motivation, hopefully in situations where those two things don't coincide."
Accordingly I followed up in 116 and 121, where the exact motivations for his votes were unclear but where much more likely to be pressure votes as both votes were against people who had directly spoken against him (Jalmont and Mithril) which more directly aligned with the town!Apricity narrative. Later on in 145 he had an exchange with Hawkie with a shocking degree of abrasiveness, unprompted and therefore unlikely to come from scum. His point #3 directly provides the context for the sudden emotional outburst and the outburst if true is one that's driven from a towny place. In total, he started off with a seemingly bad entrance but further context has clarified his posts somewhat and given me reason to town read him.
Aubisio / Moody / Knights / Durza / 3p1k / Durza / Haruno: have not posted enough for me to get a good read on them or are people I have a hard time reading correctly in general (Moody and Knights)
Jalmont: This is a hard read. There are posts that have definitive town pings, such as where he tells no one to highlight Asek, post 173 where he says to vote Moody and then votes Aubisio, and then post 390 where the focus is so strongly self-absorbed and concerned with how he is being read by one person that almost always comes from a town mindset (where you're operating as an individual and not a team) that I'm definitely not set in this read and am looking for reasons to shift him into my town pile.
Except there's also post 114 and the whole ties he has to Asek, Hawkie, and Blazade that strongly suggest that of that group one of their member is scum. To quote: "Tonally Jalmont's post suggests one of two things, either he's a town who's having a clear head and wants to talk through a potential town ally for better scumhunting or he's a scum who wants to diminish a potential argument against him. Nothing concrete but in the interactions and posts from the Asek/Blazade/Jalmont slots i'm getting scum and town pings on each slot but also a probability that none are scum partners (albeit without evidence either way in the Blazade+Asek case) which somewhat suggests to me that Jalmont is scum and Asek/Blazade are town interacting with scum.
In summary, I think Jalmont is scum but I won't lynch them now because I'm only confident to about 60%.
Xnadrojx: see post 383
I was going to point out that literally the only two flips we've seen were vanilliser and vanilla town but others beat me to it
I don't see what the point for mafia to reveal that they have a persuade d2 and use it on aubisio is, seems nai, definitely not a town clear. Echoing Blazade's observation that a persuade in NOC sounds stupid. Bit uncomfortable with this Earlio post as it appears to go for low hanging fruit
seems like thread blew up somewhat, nice
wait why the fuck was Mithril subbed before durza/haruno
I do not like how you felt the need to explain why you were unvoting Haruno
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