alright let's get this show on the road
earlio
post 5: super weak read here but in this specific game with this specific context this is a town ping for me, earlio has been scum for a while and this post is one that town!earlio is likely to make given that streak on this site which is something that i empathize with being in a similar situation on mafiascum. town!texas wants to talk about his streak as a funny thing but scum!texas doesn't want to bring attention to being scum all the time and i think that translates to earlio here
moody
post 12: i believe you. fruit vendor?
hawkie post 22: soft claiming veteran, obvious bullshit as town but possibly a haruno gambit as scum to avoid town night targets. minor fos for it
asek post 48: minor scum leanings here, it's hard to explain but in trying to think from asek's perspective i think the world's where he's scum has asek more likely to want to address and diminish the rvs vote from a strong townie. can't find a motivation for town!asek to want to specifically address the post except where he specifically thinks it's a read on hawkie. this read is contingent on future asek posts, if he cements hawkie as a town read then asek is more likely town, if he flips back then asek is more likely scum. distancing isn't a common tactic in any of our metas so I don't think an asek+hawkie team is likely at this point, likely either one scum or both town
jalmont post 54: no read on jalmont yet, just noting their choice to push a haruno policy lynch. can see valid reasons as both alignments so noting this for later reference.
jalmont post 55: nvm this is a decent town ping. fairly weak read however, easy post to make from a scum position
making a note that to this point twin is in his town meta
apricity post 64: ooh really dislike this. hard to determine alignment though, depends on how smart apricity is. he has to know that having his entrance be contentless onto a policy lynch looks super bad right? like if he's town you'd think he'd want to avoid that obvious issue unless he's not that self-aware and thinks that the pressure wagon is the way to go. but then it's more likely that scum!apricity sees an easy entrance to make without having to commit because "oh it's just a policy lynch" unless they foresee the consequences in which case they wouldn't make that post. So basically I can't find any reason as either alignment that apricity would make this his entrance. Which i think on balance of probabilities make him more likely town by virtue of being less self-aware? i think the important follow on to this is to see how he approaches future lynches. if he shows a lot of support for pressure wagons this aligns with the town motivations of apricity whereas if he shows favour for pushing relatively easy lynches this aligns more with the scum motivation, hopefully in situations where those two things don't coincide.
xnadrojx post 68: jordan's first post wasn't very good but this one is outright bad. second post in the game and immediately defensive of a vote against, looks to draw attention to the other four possible wagons early in day one. this appears extremely motivated by self-preservation, classic scum motivation. heavy FoS on jordan
mithril post 69: ugh why did you back off here this was where you should have doubled down on jordan for pressure. this looks like a generally towny progression from an inexperienced town but it's also reasonably plausible that this is a light tell for a mithril jordan partnership. kinda weird to be reading my own slot but i think this interaction should help sort jordan
asek post 70: can't really get a clear read off of this post but i want to make sure people aren't giving town points off of this. asek is a strong player and this is definitely the kind of post he'd make as town. it's also the kind of post he'd make as scum looking to appear town as it doesn't require much commitment in stance from him while being an easily argued moderate position to stand behind. he'd also do this both where haruno was a partner and where haruno wasn't. this post looks really nice on the surface but there's a lot of uncertainty and cause for suspicion below the belt too. that being said, this post, post 71, and his previous post are all tonally consistent in pushing moderate positions so that at least provides a pattern of behaviour that may help in this future.
moody post 76: noting to self to get into a discussion with moody. i have a notoriously hard time reading them because all their posts are like this one, content posts that don't really go below the surface or give much insight into their mindset, talking them through that should help. good to note them as being the first person to also see the apricity sketch.
blazade post 84: content looks sketchy but tonally reads like the kind of post i make as town when i have a couple thoughts but no time to go into detail. weirdly enough i think i'm town reading blazade off of this because their content is so off-meta and i know blazade is good enough that as scum he'd put more effort in. have to monitor this slot closely.
hawkie post 86: hard to read hawkie but this should affirm that a hawkie+asek team isn't possible, if hawkie wants to distance from a partner there are ways to do that that are far less likely to get your partner lynched. i can't really definitively describe it but i'm getting gut vibes of scum!hawkie, i'll try not to let that bias future looks but. don't know.
twin post 91: valid read/vote, don't even disagree that the post was bad. still can't get a personal read on twin cause he hasn't talked about his thoughts yet but his voting pattern is consistent with what i've seen from him as town still
it's nice to see jalmont engaging with discussion as a departure from his previous games, but still waiting to see legit content from him. so far his posts have been pushing the haruno wagon and pushing other people to develop their own reads and arguments. good contribution to the game, but a null read through post 100
whydon post 104: i like this post. it's less virtue signal-ly than asek's and pushes in a good direction with wanting to look at the wagon voters, productivity out of the opposition is generally motivated by scumhunting. this is backed up by his taking notice of apricity's vote, without actually mentioning apricity in his post which you'd think scum!whydon would want to do more explicitly if he was pushing suspicion onto apricity. decent town read out of this.
blazade post 108: agreed. NAI post on blazade's end, but a good clue that a blazade+jalmont scum team likely isn't the case
jalmont post 114: i don't have anything concrete but this post kind of ties some threads that makes me start to scum read jalmont. tonally jalmont's post suggests one of two things, either he's a town who's having a clear head and wants to talk through a potential town ally for better scumhunting or he's a scum who wants to diminish a potential argument against him. now i don't see any cues either way in this post but what i do see is jalmont calling out asek's haruno post on good reasoning, doesn't make sense timing wise for jalmont to try and distance so this indicates an unlikelihood that jalmont and asek are partners. again nothing concrete but in the interactions and posts from the asek/blazade/jalmont slots i'm getting scum and town pings on each slot but also a probability that none are scum partners (albeit without evidence either way in the blazade+asek case) which somewhat suggests to me that jalmont is scum and asek/blazade are town interacting with scum. I think there's a pretty strong probability that exactly one member of this trio is a scum in the order of jalmont --> asek --> blazade with the additional note that if asek is the scum that also puts hawkie as town by virtue of their earlier interactions. i will say that i'm not incredibly confident in this as a means to push a lynch because it is based a lot on soft reads but the thought process makes a lot of sense to me
apricity post 116: following up on his previous entry, is this a pressure vote or an easy vote switch? note to check the next vote count. looks like an easy aggression post that might align with scum!ap, but can also see the town position. EDIT: found the VC at 131, second vote onto mithril. not a definitive pressure vote, but more likely to align with that narrative.
i'll make a note here that the nice thing about subbing into a game is you have the reads and perspectives to fall back on of someone who's alignment you definitively know. with that said:
mithril post 120: skeptical of jalmont, suspicious of apricity, and targeting earlio. nice to see their reads generally aligning with mine so far, helps me feel like i'm on the right track
apricity post 121: this is neither a pressure vote nor an easy vote. huh. two possibilities, actually is town apricity putting a vote on for pressure to force mithril to justify himself more or is scum apricity wanting to pressure and discredit a threat. feels more likely the town side.
hawkie post 124: second post that strongly indicates hawkie isn't in a scum team with blazade. suggests a high probability hawkie is simply town. i understand his arguments here, would honestly agree with him if i didn't also see where blazade might have been at when posting. i think in the world where hawkie is flipped as town blazade also flips as town, in the world where blazade flips as town hawkie is more likely scum (pushing on a strong townie who made a weak post), and in the worlds where either flips scum the other is definitely town.
hawkie post 126: interesting that he town reads earlio on no reasoning, actually further cements my town read since i have the same idea on earlio and there's not much reason for a scum to make that particular post.
asek post 128: tonally consistent with previous paragraph posts though his quote post was a bit off. mostly just making note here of my agreement to be wary of the knights slot, nothing notable this early on but also someone fairly easy to scum read so to be wary of letting him get far without committing to stuff one way or another.
apricity post 134:
is apricity bad mafia or bad town i can’t tell
preach brother
apricity post 145: starting to come onto town!ap. this level of abrasiveness is pretty shocking out of seemingly nowhere, seems unlikely scum!ap gets to that right away. i can see the mindset of frustration as town though if he's trying to create a way to prove he's town and being told he can't while also starting to come under pressure for his play, plus personal dislike of aubisio. this post suggests town to me on a tonal level
thunderballz post 149: making note that the flipped town was suspicious of blazade
twin post 152: town metaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
knights has a lot of posts on this page. that's about all there is to say about him. gut says town, if memory serves he's approaching this similarly to past town games. but nothing concrete to guide that.
jalmont post 173: i'm cautious because this isn't hard to fake, but this post is so towny it hurts
jordan post 174: ooh interesting content from jordan let's see if he continues the self-preservation. okay no don't see much of that. this is hard to get a bead on hmm. the vote is kinda weak, easy place to sit and easy justification to make. is this town!jordan's strongest read? does he vote for tballz here rather than pushing asek who he outright states is a scum read? I think i maintain the scum read on jordan which is awkward because i agree with a lot of the rest of this post. i think these wash out to legitimate reads but a desire to rope a known towny rather than strengthen other positions.
That being said I'm going to go ahead and
Vote Xnadrojx, here, for now this looks like a place I'm very confident in finding scum
That being said, if jordan does flip scum that would seem to be pretty clear that blazade is his partner, at this point in the game blazade is the lead wagon until jordan's vote and posts like
184 is a pretty clear defense. Hard to say if he'd be blatant about it. I think it's pretty safe to link jordan's and blazade's alignments, either as scum buddies or town buddies, and if scum buddies that clears all of jalmont/asek/hawkie
aubisio post 188: today i learned aubisio is in this game
knights post 194: interesting read. unclear so making note for future reference that knights is focusing primarily on motivations and tactics with the notes on chainsaw defense and earlio's supposed focus on optics
blazade post 220: see: blazade is town. good introduction of jalmont related content and good vote on a to-this-point unpressured scummy slot
durza post 221: today i learned durza is in this game
Hawkie i want to hold to you your #234 about why you think blazade is scum in detail because i can see the surface argument and his posts on the surface haven't looked great but i'm only seeing town when i dig into it
3p1k post 236: today i learned 3p1k is in this game
vote count post 285: ooh this has a lot of support for a potential jordan+blazade scum buddy theory. with the way the votes are arranged there's good chances there's one scum on the main wagon, one on the counterwagon, and two in the off wagons. but let's look closely at the votes. blazade wagon ends at 3. ballz ends at 4. who's the third vote on the ballz wagon, the vote that tied the blazade wagon and helped prevent his lynch. jordan. this is a nice piece of hard evidence that directly supports the previous theory that blazade and jordan are the same alignment.
post 291 asek flips green: checking back to previous interactions...referencing post 48 town asek flip suggests his meta read was a legitimate one on hawkie, lends further credence to town!hawkie. referencing post 70 now definitive evidence that he wasn't protecting scum!haruno; no clear evidence on haruno's alignment either way, but doesn make it more likely haruno is town on balance of probabilities where the scum connection to asek is removed. referencing 114 asek flipping town significantly raises the likelihood that jalmont is scum i think
3p1k post 294: interesting thought i don't think i'd have noticed. good town read i think. i think a 3p town flip confirms the town read on twin but twin's flip is not currently indicative of 3p1k
aubisio post 296: noting that aubisio makes particular note of the vote counts, and noting asek's vote sitting on moody. in light of this scum motivation to kill asek likely just results from wanting to remove a strong town player but may have some relevance into trying to frame or save moody. if moody appears suspicious by way of future flips it's likely a scum frame job
aubisio post 318: extremely interesting and almost definitively evidence of someone's alignment. if aubisio is lying about being persuaded than that's hard evidence of them being scum. if they're not than that's extremely strong evidence that whydon is town by virtue of persuade almost always being a scum role and a really terrible use of the ability
earlio post 337: i won't say exactly why here because that would be dangerous but earlio is 1000% town
overall list of reads (read the fkin post for nuanced reasoning and conditions u twat)
town (most town read to least town read): earlio --> hawkie --> blazade -->
asek --> twin --> whydon --> apricity
nai (most NAI to least NAI): aubisio --> moody --> knights --> durza --> 3p1k --> haruno -->
tballz
scum (most scummy to less scummy): jordan --> jalmont