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NOC Animal Mafia ~Game Over~

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Setup:

Thunder~BALLZ - One-Shot Vanillaizer
Whydon - Two-Shot Watcher
Apricity - Two-Shot Role Cop
Asek - Vanilla
Thetwinmasters - Vanilla
Texas - Vanilla
Haruno - Doctor
Earlio - Voyeur
Jalmont - Messenger
Former Hope - Two-Shot Redirector
MoodyCloud - Tree Stump
Prophylaxis - Vanilla
3P1K - Vanilla
Hitmonleet - Vanilla

XnadrojX - Mafia Vanilla Cop
Knights - Mafia Two-Shot Neighborizer
Aubisio - Mafia Three-Shot Commuter

*WARNING MODGAMING HERE*

Xnadroj being the vanilla cop makes Earlio be more town because scum don't have 2x investigative
Knights being neignborizer makes Jalmont be more town because scum don't have neighborize + messenge sender
 
I would love to get a reread of FH done in the next 3 hours but that's probbbably not going to happen

Extension request

probably not needed but being able to ISO the FH slot tomorrow would be nice
 
Seconding Extension

I pop in for a quick second and proph has a giant post. Yikes. Will lead later, but since I know it's probably in there, I'm pretty sure that Knight's early stuff was distancing. After all, early game is the perfect time for scum vs. scum, since you don't need to dig out actual reasons that will get your partner possibly lynched. You can just let it die off.
 
man hitmonleet just widening the poe just makes my eyes twitch

like, yes, we are supposed to consider reasonable possibilities, but at the end of the day we only have three mislynches to work with to find one scum

we're supposed to narrow things down and find the last scum, not be paranoid about everything and.. not do anything. or using "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN" as reasoning to lynch the towniest person in the room
 
like, as townies in this scenario we're supposed to narrow down possibilities in order to give the last scum no room to hide

hitmonleet's most recent post is just giving scum MORE room to hide, not less. that's why i'm so nervous when I read his posts because he's just expanding the poe
 
Hitmonleet

i'm willing to give you a fair shake but you need to provide an actual plan on how we can win this game, if that makes sense. i don't want to mislynch two townies and then be in lylo since that's the hardest part to figure out. i want to win the game BEFORE that, hence why I'm trying to put in this work now

(also I think I might be killed tonight and I don't want this to be bard's college 2.0)
 
Prophylaxis said:
Hitmonleet

i'm willing to give you a fair shake but you need to provide an actual plan on how we can win this game, if that makes sense. i don't want to mislynch two townies and then be in lylo since that's the hardest part to figure out. i want to win the game BEFORE that, hence why I'm trying to put in this work now

(also I think I might be killed tonight and I don't want this to be bard's college 2.0)
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An actual plan? I'm shit at planning, but ok. For a basic, rudimentary framework:

  1. We need to rethink everything. With the information we have, we need to all reread the thread and make observations.
  2. Because of the seeming "fish in a barrel" issue, we need to consider cases where every single person is scum, and figure out which scenario makes the most sense with what we know to be 100% true, assuming they're lying.
  3. Lynch that person.
  4. If that fails, then repeat with the new information.
Personally, this logic still leads me to Earlio. Having a Voyeur on town is... odd, to say the least. Especially an unlimited shot one, when the only form of role identification we have is a 2 shot role cop who died, it just seems really wierd for town with the setup. Having a mafia of Cop/Voyeur/Neighborizer/Commuter makes sense, considering the flipped roles so far all seem to be ones that would normally make good sense as Town PRs.

After reviewing all my info and doing some rethinking, the only person we can mostly trust is Haruno, because of the watch results that would only work if we had Haruno as an SG, which isn't possible with a watch too (although iirc there was something about watcher being "strong-willed", which seems like it's relevant. Gonna need to do some looking over).

Also TIL that "a fair shake" is a phrase people use.
 
Prophylaxis said:
man hitmonleet just widening the poe just makes my eyes twitch

like, yes, we are supposed to consider reasonable possibilities, but at the end of the day we only have three mislynches to work with to find one scum

we're supposed to narrow things down and find the last scum, not be paranoid about everything and.. not do anything. or using "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN" as reasoning to lynch the towniest person in the room
Click to expand...

I just can't help but feel like we're zooming in on too little too much. I got attacked by people who ignored the majority of my posts, and I can't help but think that we're making a similar issue, and so I want us to at least consider all the options first, before making a definitive PoE.
 
If you really want an actual sort of PoE, I feel like the first thing we should do is lynch within Earlio/3P1K/Former Hope atm. In the scenarios where any of them are scum, it assumes the least, and it doesn't seem to have any inconsistencies, in terms of my tired, groggy nighttime thinking.

I'm going to go to bed, in the morning I'll look over everything and reexamine my theorized lynch pool for today.
 
Pretty sure the simple answer here is the correct one; and hitmonleet has no excuse being allowed to live until lylo as opposed to everyone else. But for your sake Hitmonleet supporting the extension
Like i said; semi-blatant answer is semi-blatant. Will stop being a lazy nerd tommorow; and come forth with my own POE that isnt Leet/Leet/Leet.
 
Okay, it really doesn't sit well with me that Proph gets questioned for being sketchy and then goes from a neutral/town read on me to a conclusion I must be scum. Like
Prophylaxis said:
Setup:

Thunder~BALLZ - One-Shot Vanillaizer
Whydon - Two-Shot Watcher
Apricity - Two-Shot Role Cop
Asek - Vanilla
Thetwinmasters - Vanilla
Texas - Vanilla
Haruno - Doctor
Earlio - Voyeur
Jalmont - Messenger
Former Hope - Two-Shot Redirector
MoodyCloud - Tree Stump
Prophylaxis - Vanilla
3P1K - Vanilla
Hitmonleet - Vanilla

XnadrojX - Mafia Vanilla Cop
Knights - Mafia Two-Shot Neighborizer
Aubisio - Mafia Three-Shot Commuter

*WARNING MODGAMING HERE*

Xnadroj being the vanilla cop makes Earlio be more town because scum don't have 2x investigative
Knights being neignborizer makes Jalmont be more town because scum don't have neighborize + messenge sender
Click to expand...
Ignores from his perspective (as town) 3P1K's likely hood of being mafia because of the vanilla claim which could be masking a role claim. Ngl, this feels like a really rapid and panicked change because someone called them out. Then they also go instantly for a "I think I might die tonight" plea after earlier stating that not only was Moody most likely to die, but then changed that to Haruno. Again, this feels like a panicked scum, maybe someone who feels they can't keep things going until the end of the game while avoiding the mislynching Unlynch, Vote Proph
 
Lol.

I think that you might be mafia because I am in the process of re-evaluating things and considering worlds where Hitmonleet might be town. If Leet is town then that means that I have to re-examine my other town reads, which include you.

MoodyCloud said:
soft defense of Aubisio (from the day we lynched Knights) ?

Epik busses Aubisio/Knight hard on the same page if he's mafia
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This is the impetus as to why I am re-evaluating you.

And I think I might die because I feel like I am the only one right now who is actively putting in work trying to re-evaluate the game state.

But whatever. I'll do a full read through on you tomorrow and then decide. I already did one on Earlio and came to the conclusion that he's probably town despite the coasting, so I'll do one on you and see if you're mafia or not.
 
Gonna reread with all eyes on FH real quick, because based on my current evaluation of the gamestate aside he's next most likely to flip red. Plus this helps proph too so theres that since proph wanted thoughts on it. Jumbled mess of thoughts inbound
 
Blazade said:
Aight I'm getting my car serviced so I'm just chilling here.

I dislike policy lynching, that shit is lame and not productive to future NOC discussion.

Asek is my top townread for his reaction to that, really natural questions.

Moody also reads like town moody here. Specifically the kinds of connections and points he's making.
Click to expand...
Meh pretty NAI but noteworthy that if scum!blazade exists then he opted not to even mention his partners. Lack of implied partner interaction will be a trend im looking for (until blazade subs out)
 
Blazade said:
I've had a really crappy day and I'm really not in the mood for this shit but here are my thoughts:

Apricity seems like a stronger willed player than just sheeping Hawkie but I'm willing to put this issue off to D2.

Xnadroj, Durza, Aubisio, Whydon, 3pik, Haruno, Thunderballz are easily in the inactive pool, with only Thunderballz giving me enough info to at least try to get a read on them.

Jalmont's reaction to my pressure has only been good and the kind of waffling people have expressed about lynching him gives me pause. Other than like Mithril/Jalmont or Hawkie/Jalmont I don't see a lot of scum protecting scum here.

unvote

Asek continuing to ask good questions and press in the right places, cementing the read.

vote Xnadrojx

I'm also curious who around me you think might be scummy, and for that matter who around Jalmont or Tballz or any other wagon.
Click to expand...
Nvm light questioning between this post
Blazade said:
We have a day and a half before deadline and the votes on me are hawkie, people sheeping hawkie, and RVS. I wouldn't call that "about to die".

On that same coin I wouldn't say tballs is in desparation either but he is bandwagoning.

I'm also unaware of the chainsaw, Knights. Can you explain and give your thoughts on it?
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and this one
Still opted never to really take a stance on either as of EoD1
 
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