NOC Animal Mafia ~Game Over~

[MoodyCloud]

There are reasons to be paranoid about pretty much anyone here and I've kind of given up on solving through rereads

Proph/Epik/FH have been showing an intent to gamesolve lately, mroe so than the others, and because I wanted to see who would pick up the slack I've been laying low this cycle

I've picked up on a few mindmelds from Proph's posts and thus despite my wifom paranoia I will trust that intent to gamesolve+seemingly correct approach to doing it = town

Epik has been looking really towny for a long time and yeah maybe him going from pushing two town wagons to nailing both of the 50/50s implicating Knights/Aubisio was him hard bussing, but at this point I can't say I want to go there, if he's mafia he's got me pocketed and good job to him

Earlio has been a townread of mine since like d1 too, and a largely shared one. His posts this cycle and from the interactions with Knights that Proph quoted were a bit sketchy but the widespread support for him being town keeps me from getting him out of my town pool

Haruno is doing jack shit and if he is scum I don't know if that'd be the lamest or greatest mafia win of all time



Which by process of elimination leads to :

Jalmont : disappeared right when I stopped posting and showed little investment in solving. Behavior and tone-wise I used to lean town here but him having seemingly all town in both of his early lynch pools, his soft defense of Jordan, and now his lurking after parking a vote and shrugging just don't spell "pro-town" for me at this point despite a lack of apparent agenda. I don't think it makes sense to give that slot a pass in lylo and I'd rather lose to a good scum game than to overlooking anti town behavior in fear of running into another Leet mislynch. Texas having him as lock town seems very strange and that's why I'd rather not lynch this first.

FH : has been active but advocating a lynch order which I don't agree why, setting him apart from Proph who pushed for people to add two slots to their town pool (ignoring the lock town ones) when the ideal situation for scum was to only have maximum one lock town imo. Him using redirect as he did is a weird thing for mafia to do but I believe that as town a 2 shot redirector should always keep one for endgame in case they survive, in which case their role becomes very powerful.
Texas believed that this slot was unlikely to be of the same alignment as Knights, which adds to my headache, and there was a mindmeld moment when FH called Proph out for asking how many shots Haruno had left (I believe this is nai since scum Proph would be wary of drawing attention in such a way and I suspect Haruno has been out of shots for a while otherwise I don't know how so many obvious kills could have gone through, this is actually the one thing that can make me paranoid about Haruno btw). Ultimately I think that appearing to be gamesolving while doing it in an anti town (from my pov) way is more scummy than giving everyone a big shrugging of shoulders and that is why I'd start here lynch FH

I think Jalmont and FH are probably of opposite alignments from what I've said above and their spat back when the Jordan/Haruno situation was being discussed, if I'm wrong well I can take that L with no regrets


tl;dr lynch FH then Jalmont

 

[MoodyCloud]

I was actually worried about Proph's slot and lied about them being "the highest in my town pool" a while back to see the reactions/night kill but I think what makes the most sense at the end of the day is to town read investment+protown behavior

 

[Prophylaxis]

Good post by Moody.

I was mulling things when I was getting back from class and was thinking to myself, "does FH + Jalmont just end it?" because I feel fairly confident in Earlio + EPIK + Haruno town.

I'll read through Jalmont tonight though and then follow that up with EPIK tomorrow and then write a post detailing my thoughts and we should be able to proceed from there I think?

 

[Da Letter El]

Vote Count 7.1

Earlio (1): Jalmont
Jalmont (1): Former Hope
Not Voting (4): 3P1K, Earlio, Haruno, Prophylaxis

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Deadline in ~22 hours.

 

[Prophylaxis]

Also this is getting into modgaming/confirmation bias territory, but:

Haruno being the doc would makes sense because there hasn't been a flipped protective role all game. The only power roles that have flipped are the investigatives and the vanillaizer

Former Hope being mafia redirector would make sense because we've had three mafia PRs flip so far (Neighborizer/Vanilla Cop/Commuter) but the most notable thing that has been missing is the roleblocker. A redirector is pretty similar to a roleblocker because they interfere with town night actions

We have a fair amount of town power (three investigatives if we assume Earlio is town) so it would not surprise me if the mafia had some strong PRs on their side as well?

 

[Prophylaxis]

Vote Count 7.1

Earlio (1): Jalmont
Jalmont (1): Former Hope
Not Voting (4): 3P1K, Earlio, Haruno, Prophylaxis

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Deadline in ~22 hours.

you missed Moody's vote on FH

 

[Prophylaxis]

oh wait

moody doesn't HAVE a vote

nvm!

 

[Scarlet Firefly]

Moody has no vote

 

[Prophylaxis]

Earlio has been a townread of mine since like d1 too, and a largely shared one. His posts this cycle and from the interactions with Knights that Proph quoted were a bit sketchy but the widespread support for him being town keeps me from getting him out of my town pool

Can you explain this in more depth? It feels like a large portion of this townread is "I've townread them since D1, lots of people have been townreading Earlio so I'm going to townread him too" - this reasoning doesn't really cut it this stage of the game.

You thought the interactions with Knights are sketchy? I read through those interactions and struggle to see Knights complain about having trouble reading a buddy like that.

 

[MoodyCloud]

They don't read that organic to me, could be fabricated but at this point I kind of have to trust a town read I've been carrying around all game

 

[MoodyCloud]

Like "I have trouble reading them" sounds more like a generic excuse to avoid having to commit to a read to me

 

[Prophylaxis]

OK, that makes sense, I might take another look at those interactions. I feel like Knights kind of struggled to produce reads on his buddies so that's why.

I feel like the gamestate would make the most sense if FH flipped scum though.

 

[earl]

I was pushing a light SR on KoC before it would be reasonable to bus + my role would make a strange mafia setup, I’m town. Looking at Moody’s reasoning I’m willing to vote for that pair. Also if Haruno is Mafia it will be even greater than Leet’s win in Bard’s College

 

[3P1K]

I'll be back in a hour or two to finish the jalmont iso and give thoughts on the current discussion. Been @ Work
~RAD

 

[3P1K]

Okay everyone should give their town pool with the reasons why people are inside it
And a lynch order

Coming up

 

[3P1K]

Haruno- Should be relatively cleared by KoC interaction +No kill n2. Pulling a stunt that early and praying a town!whydon watches (when we can pretty safely assume that up to that point scum had no knowledge a watcher even existed) that happened is stretching it outlandishly far imo. This shouldnt be lynched.

Moody- Hi ConfTown stump. How are you?

3P1K- Ez Pz is obvtown.

Earlio- I'd like to say this is town; believe the early derpclear; personally need to look at this slot a bit more. Probs next on my reread list after jalmont. For now slotting this in as the weakest townslot. Meaning the next two are comfortably in the POE

Jalmont- (Lemme finish the iso and i can get back to you on this) based on the interactions i've read thus far he probably sits somewhere in my POE.

FH- Opting to completely ignore behavioral reads at this stage seems foolish and almost an attempt to excuse reads from developing; and because of this outside of haruno his reads play out in an almost perfect mirror of mine... and maybe its just me but it bothers me he the extent to which his reads are static? Outside of that this slot still has had its fair share of towntells which throws me off. Scum redirect from a modgaming aspect does genuinely make sense based on the flips/claims thus far. This slot genuinely confuses me and probably raises more question marks than any other slot which is why i feel it does have to sit somewhere in the POE.


Prophylaxis- Still feel as though scum!proph wouldnt have been stalking the thread for a flip they knew wouldve happened; but on a more tangible note an overwhelming desire to gamesolve and more than anyone else here put for the effort to it; analyis is in general pretty sound and i am p confortable locking this in as a townslot. If this slot is scum and im getting hard pocketed here im gonna be genuinely upset with myself.

Tbh i dont want either jalmont or FH in lylo but thats probs unavoidable by this point; i'd prefer an active jalmont in lylo to an active FH in lylo. But the current jalmont is deadweight in a lylo situation so ig jalmont--->FH currently.

 

[3P1K]

Its possible earlio slips into POE>Jalmont tho after I iso it out.

 

[Prophylaxis]

very quick iso because need to zzzzzzzzzz

> Proposes Haruno as policy lynch
> Tries to help Blazade get a better read on him
> Belittles Asek
>

Jalmont your previous reasoning was "he's a burger". Are you dragging salt?

Huh

??? what the heck is this interaction

lets vote moody

vote aubisio

natura

Mixed thoughts on Jalmont and Knights, but apricity is also pretty scummy.

I'll be on for the next hour, so if anyone is here I can talk with them.

would

ok real talk though lets vote whydon

unvote vote whydon

bleh

here are the three people id be willing to vote today.

blazade - 0 posts on who he thinks is mafia except for me sort of?
whydon - afk BUT some posts which are mainly question asking. no personal content.
thunderballz - feels like hes trying the cryptic strat but im not really buying it.

haruno and durza are completely afk so i dont feel like we can vote them right now.

town town town

Blazade is still suspicious from yesterday, also he somewhat evaded the lynch.

I kinda wanna policy Haruno, but they seem to be playing better, if they are active

Jalmont is being weird instead of rational, which is unusual

Whydon whatcha think about stuff

does aubisio say this about jalmont if they're scum/scum together?

1 maybe 2 of twin blazade hawkie and apricity are mafia

wrong about reads.jpg

then he gets into a large argument with texas; unsure what this means for jalmont's alignment?

if jordan flips scum (and blazade is his partner) that also clears jalmont/asek/hawkie in my mind based on the reads i've developed in other parts of the research

whyy???

here he heavily defends xnad in 418

I feel like I want to townread Jalmont for being so against the tide but then again it could be me being pocketed so.... I'd put him as town for now.

Man this still feels like a "scum talking about town" townread thing

461 is a post that i will remind myself to go back and look again but gun to head these types of posts mostly come from town?

he's solving in 473

I guess if everyone is so confident that xnadroj is mafia and no one agrees with me on this then fine, vote xnadrojx. I'm just trying to survive really.

this is such a.. weird post to make if you're s/s with xnad

Probably not Earlio, I need more from him to suss him out.

I think Jalmont is a buzzkill who can't appreciate some impressive effort, but he hasn't been disruptive enough to warrant a PL. Putting priority on rereading here.

Let me catch up now so I can think beyond the Do Not Lynch pool.

why does knights fencesit on literally everything

Jalmont: When he started in on Haruno for PL, I was expecting a tunnel he would ride to oblivion. Past experience says such a stance (where he'd be pushed hard to get turbo'd after the tunnel flips green) would've locked him in as obviTown and there'd be scum among those who would push him about it. But those events never happened. And now the read's getting clouded by fighting and attitude. Null and subject to further scrutiny. Also, I still want it in writing that the fighting's gonna stop.

feels like knights wouldn't.... make this long of a post if he's actually s/s

like wouldn't knights tell jalmont to cut it out in scumchat? also it feels like he overexplained this a whole lot

then there's the persuade stuff

honestly jordans recent post on 3pk is very odd especially given how much 3pk has written in the last day or so (which I didn't read of course because it was also tl;dr.) still though kinda interesting to cherry pick out those posts when i feel 3pk has offered much more? idk tho

then i'm fine with this

unvote vote xnadroj

this feels like a natural train of thought.

here he just shoves the hard bus on xnad if he is actually scum

why is no one else concerned about the fact that former hope REDIRECTED jordans action onto APRICITY something jordans claims does not CORROBORATE

you would think that former hope would be ESPECIALLY concerned by this. i know i would be if i redirected someone and they claimed to have essentially not be redirected

FORMER HOPE should be chomping on the bit to lynch JORDAN here because his action literally directly CONTRADICTS what jordan claims he's done in this game

his FAILURE to do so makes me think the only EXPLANATION is that he and jordan are BOTH MAFIA covering up for their failure to communicate FAKE claims

goodposting imo

Jalmont - pushier than usual, but is moving discussion in the right direction. would really like to learn more about persuade and have them claim. light town

scum don't really tell others to claim, right?

honestly in hindsight i should've just let you and everyone else who was second-guessing themselves drive the lynch onto a villager so that way i could know for sure who was mafia lol

town post? ish?

Former Hope - Scum, lynch ASAP

:thinking:

claims there is no persuade etc

JALMONT DONT POST ABOUT THE PERSUADE UNLESS YOU ARE GOING TO TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW

???

feels like scum annoyed about jalmont vs like.. a scum/scum thing?

also lol aubisio voting jalmont like that screams like trying to nab a mislynch

fh doing it too feels like them trying to get that town ML

i don't really feel like trying so feel free to vote me

gl finding the last mafia

peace

town post?

ok done

think jalmont is probbably town

 

[Prophylaxis]

Vote Former Hope

gamestate makes most sense if he's scum. d5 makes a lot of sense with how he tried bumrushing Jalmont with Aubisio to try and secure a mislynch

 

[3P1K]

Jalmont said:
1 maybe 2 of twin blazade hawkie and apricity are mafia
wrong about reads.jpg

then he gets into a large argument with texas; unsure what this means for jalmont's alignment?


These reads wouldnt be wrong if blazade/FH was scum from the get-go?

 

[jalmont]

i would err on the side of more PRs than vanilla. i don't think mechanically speaking the last mafia has to be a VT claim. pretty much every single claim in this game is non=alignment indicative anyways.

i dont know i dont see why mafia FH would frame his scumbuddy with a faked redirect that just seems like a Poor decision. at least it was a decision that was not communicated at all. i guess i would see the counterargument being FH's weird response to that behavior where he started scrambling to defend xnad in a very odd way.

the mafia being clueless about the persuade would make sense with earlio's behavior, seeing that he took p[retty much the same line as teammates knights and aubisio regarding the persuade. it's just a matter of whether you believe all 3 would do the same thing and make a big deal about it.

don't rea;;y understand how earlio goes from "I also cannot possibly see Jalmont being mafia with how the team is set up" in 2182 to my best vote is jalmont in 2187. thats kinda strange methinks

dont read too much into this though i'm obviously just tunneling at this point mainly out of laziness/unwillingness to go back to why i think 3pk is town and proph as well to some extent. voting me is still fine too.

 

[Former]

Jalmont said:
1 maybe 2 of twin blazade hawkie and apricity are mafia

I mean that was what I was getting to when I was trying to figure out the scumteam that ways. And why I would prefer the Proph lynch vs you. Because while the two of you are in the worst positions mechanically, hawkie being scum makes far more sense than you.

 

[3P1K]

I mean that was what I was getting to when I was trying to figure out the scumteam that ways. And why I would prefer the Proph lynch vs you. Because while the two of you are in the worst positions mechanically, hawkie being scum makes far more sense than you.

How tf is one VT claim more mechanically likely to be scum than another VT claim? And if i wanted to solve this via setup spec my lynch wouldve already been on you.

 

[jalmont]

there was a specific role meant to vanillize a player's given role + the large number of weak/limited/soft (info) roles would lead me to suggest that there's more likely to be ># of power roles than vanillas.

 

[3P1K]

i would err on the side of more PRs than vanilla. i don't think mechanically speaking the last mafia has to be a VT claim. pretty much every single claim in this game is non=alignment indicative anyways.

i dont know i dont see why mafia FH would frame his scumbuddy with a faked redirect that just seems like a Poor decision. at least it was a decision that was not communicated at all. i guess i would see the counterargument being FH's weird response to that behavior where he started scrambling to defend xnad in a very odd way.

the mafia being clueless about the persuade would make sense with earlio's behavior, seeing that he took p[retty much the same line as teammates knights and aubisio regarding the persuade. it's just a matter of whether you believe all 3 would do the same thing and make a big deal about it.

don't rea;;y understand how earlio goes from "I also cannot possibly see Jalmont being mafia with how the team is set up" in 2182 to my best vote is jalmont in 2187. thats kinda strange methinks

dont read too much into this though i'm obviously just tunneling at this point mainly out of laziness/unwillingness to go back to why i think 3pk is town and proph as well to some extent. voting me is still fine too.

Light Townleans on this post calling the roleclaims NAI especially when thats a heavy part of jalmont's supposed town merit. Thoughts?