NOC Lovers Dance Mafia Game Thread: Game Over, Scum Win!

The plan minimizes the number of correct reads we have to make. Essentially, we are avoiding the scenario where towny people get paired with scummy people. In such a scenario, we'd be spending two lynches to really effectively only get one lynch. If we pair scummy people with scummy people, then we spend two lynches to get two lynches.

That is the complete tl;dr. That's literally it. It's very simple.

Here's how the play's going to work. Nobody else seems interested in voting, that's fine, gentlemen is solved already because oddish and dusk both seem really town to me so gentlemen scum is inferno most of the time. if it's not inferno then it might be dusk which is really unfort for him but oh well. I'm pretty sure I have two town reads in Ladies but I don't want to share the two right now.

Now, let's assume we all think similarly to me. inferno is scum, so he is the first lynch. now, it would be disastrous if inferno got paired with someone we all think is town, because then the person who we think is town would get lynched as well and we'd have "Wasted" a slot by not pairing inferno with someone we think is scummy.

So a matter of top priority is matching inferno with someone who is scummy in ladies, so as to not waste the "free lynch" we get on inferno's partner.
 
Numbers is actually very lenient towards town. Let's assume a fairly dire scenario: unpaired lady flips town, first lynch flips town-town. We go down to 4-2.

If we hit even one mafia in either group on our next lynch, we stay in lylo and end up with 2 pairs, and 3 town-1 mafia as our lylo. it's 4p lylo where we get to lynched 2 people instead of only 1. crazy good odds.

if we miss again, then we'll have lynched 5 town (very unlikely), and we still don't auto-lose because there's the possibility that mafia got matched with each other. But honestly, if we miss on literally half of the playerbase without hitting scum, then we kind of deserve to lose, you get me

Now, let me explain what these numbers mean in terms of "how can we solve the game". Suppose we have the following players:
Gentlemen: 1g-4g
Ladies: 1l-5l

if we have just two correct townreads in gentlemen and two correct townreads in lady, the game is over. Why? Because we'd match townread to townread. Suppose 1g, 2g, 1l, 2l are all townreads

Then:
predance: lynch 5l
day 1: lynch 4g, 4l
day 2: lynch 3g, 3l (possible lylo, but we're guaranteed to get this lynch off)
day 3: we get to day 3 if there are not two scum in our townreads, which is essentially always. at this point,1g, 2g, 1l, 2l are alive and so we end up in the good lylo situation like i said before

This ONLY WORKS in the case that we actually get to lynch 5 scummy people on predance-day 2. if scummy people get matched against towny people then we don't get 5 lynches, we'll get 4 (since a towny person will die as a result of getting matched to a scummy person).

i don't know how i can explain this more, so if your reaction to this again is "lol eli5" literally just replace out imo
 
On an unrelated note, I just realized that there's a very interesting application of the monty hall problem here. Jalmont signed up as a lady, meaning he has a 1/5 chance of being scum. Everyone else signed up as a random, which gives them a 2/9 chance of being scum. So Jalmont is about 10% less likely than anybody else to be scum, which is a very fascinating statistical quirk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
 
slight amendment to what i said above. 4p lylo, we don't actually get two lynches, but there's only two people who could possibly be scum at that stage and we have two confirmed town also, so it should be a very good situation for us anyway

ok, so i suggest the following as a four person townbloc
apricity, oddish/dusk (this is honestly a 50/50 they're probably both town), jalmont, viper. as long as i haven't been a retard and included both scum in this list of 3 people (excluding myself), this guarantees a very very strong lylo situation for town and probably wins us the game. if we're right on which one in dusk/oddish to include in the townbloc, then we guarantee 4p lylo
 
right now kind of thinking about letting texas go unpaired, and matching inferno to energy

ken masters matches to the scummier person in oddish/dusk

and some kind of matching between the remaining 4 people

ok yeah this is where my head is at

ItzViper482 JALMONT Texas Cloverleaf i'll need the three of you to do careful reading of my posts, put in like 10 minutes to actually read everything and play the game thanks i appreciate it
 
this hurts my head

apricity said:
On an unrelated note, I just realized that there's a very interesting application of the monty hall problem here. Jalmont signed up as a lady, meaning he has a 1/5 chance of being scum. Everyone else signed up as a random, which gives them a 2/9 chance of being scum. So Jalmont is about 10% less likely than anybody else to be scum, which is a very fascinating statistical quirk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Click to expand...

man im too fuckin clean
 
and this is the rest of the playerlist
apricity Duskfall98 Oddish. JALMONT ItzViper482

not like i can really threaten with subs because there aren't any lol, maybe i just modkill or something(alternatively not being in a pair does that too) lmfao but deadline is looming closer (7h 30) and we are on the third page so...

if there even is a deadline extension at all, it most likely wont be for a full day. but i am prodding people to post.
 
(Appears out of thin air)

Alright, now that I’m out of APUSH hell, I can actually participate in this game. I’m totally down with Hal’s plan considering this setup seems borderline broken

Honestly, I’m not really getting anything that fishy from any ladies and I really don’t get how Hal has decided I’m scum from literally nothing, but honestly none of the conclusions they made make any sense to me, so either Hal is just confusing or I can’t read.
 
Ok well it's getting late and I'm EU so I'll have to go to bed unfortunately. I'm gonna have to partner up now so I won't die sadly.

Propose to ken-masters.

Going with him because I feel neither of us are in the lynch pool for today so it's a safe option and doesnt hinder town in finding scum among the suspects.
 
As for my votes I honestly haven't the slightest idea in the world. Going to go with energy for one since he just said he's gonna sheep hal which could be a pocket attempt? He also didn't respond when I spoke about that topic before.

Second one is a complete toss up tbh we have no info because no one posted. It always amazes me how town players think it's a good idea to let scum hide amongst their inactivity.

Ok I've spent a good time trying to find something scummy and honestly there's nothing. I'm just going to say viper I guess because I'm sheeping what other gentlemen have voted tbh. Personally I am completely neutral about this lynch, because there is no real good clear option.

If someone happens to do something stupidly scummy before deadline you can assume my vote would change to them from viper.
 
ok so i agree with everything hal has said and i have read it

fine w/ inferno lynch and letting texas die

unsure why hal town locked me but ill take it

this is lock town hal imo
town read on dusk for proposing to ken-masters i think.
 
The biggest problem plauging the game rn is lack of posts, it's hard to get reads on anyone. But I think people genuinely don't know how to get this game moving. I certainly don't

I think for now I'll just keep my votes where they are
 
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