Numbers is actually very lenient towards town. Let's assume a fairly dire scenario: unpaired lady flips town, first lynch flips town-town. We go down to 4-2.
If we hit even one mafia in either group on our next lynch, we stay in lylo and end up with 2 pairs, and 3 town-1 mafia as our lylo. it's 4p lylo where we get to lynched 2 people instead of only 1. crazy good odds.
if we miss again, then we'll have lynched 5 town (very unlikely), and we still don't auto-lose because there's the possibility that mafia got matched with each other. But honestly, if we miss on literally half of the playerbase without hitting scum, then we kind of deserve to lose, you get me
Now, let me explain what these numbers mean in terms of "how can we solve the game". Suppose we have the following players:
Gentlemen: 1g-4g
Ladies: 1l-5l
if we have just two correct townreads in gentlemen and two correct townreads in lady, the game is over. Why? Because we'd match townread to townread. Suppose 1g, 2g, 1l, 2l are all townreads
Then:
predance: lynch 5l
day 1: lynch 4g, 4l
day 2: lynch 3g, 3l (possible lylo, but we're guaranteed to get this lynch off)
day 3: we get to day 3 if there are not two scum in our townreads, which is essentially always. at this point,1g, 2g, 1l, 2l are alive and so we end up in the good lylo situation like i said before
This ONLY WORKS in the case that we actually get to lynch 5 scummy people on predance-day 2. if scummy people get matched against towny people then we don't get 5 lynches, we'll get 4 (since a towny person will die as a result of getting matched to a scummy person).
i don't know how i can explain this more, so if your reaction to this again is "lol eli5" literally just replace out imo