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NOC There's Actually a Sequel to the Matrix - Day 9 (Deadline Tuesday 10 PM EST)

Texas Cloverleaf said:
Also do you legitimately believe that whydon does the following:

1. Is voting for 3P1K (scum)
2. Is on for deadline
3. Reacts to the 3P1K wagon by voting for FH (scum)
4. Follows the cfd to caffeine boost (scum)
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Pretty sure he joined some of those wagons when it was clear that scum is being lynched so it doesn't really earn him town credit for me.
 
I literally just went back and walked through the end of day.

3P1K claims, chaos starts. Less than two minutes after the claim, with no one else initiating, whydon votes former hope.

In what world is there scum equity for whydon to use a scum partners fake claim as an opportunity to vote a scum partner instead of a town counterwagon.


"Pretty sure" doesn't cut it in the face of evidence
 
Texas Cloverleaf said:
I literally just went back and walked through the end of day.

3P1K claims, chaos starts. Less than two minutes after the claim, with no one else initiating, whydon votes former hope.

In what world is there scum equity for whydon to use a scum partners fake claim as an opportunity to vote a scum partner instead of a town counterwagon.


"Pretty sure" doesn't cut it in the face of evidence
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If you knew I was town what would your lynch pool be?
 
Oh I understand what you said. And I understand the meaning of the words you said.

I cannot possibly fathom the thought process and mindset that led you to that conclusion, or to decided not to that said conclusion is a valuable thing to conclude, or that said thing is something a town should be striving for, however.

Frankly, nor do I want to.
 
Da Letter El do you prod people only a maximum time of once per day or will you prod them more if they are inactive?

also I want to say that I think texas drookez and whydon are all town so if we lynch between dusk pidge nuxl and vooper we will at worst hit lylo

i honestly think we lynch nuxl and pidge next
I feel like what pidge said is the truth - namely, I want to note that nuxl's activity was pretty much zero until he was about to be lynched, then he kicked it into high gear. Me not dying would (presumably) be enough to keep him safe for a day while he continues to be active and move any target on him off, after which he could off me and hopefully coast to lylo and win.
I think the immediate case on pidge after om's death seems like an attempted frame kill.
like i have nuxl as a townread while om's read on nuxl was unknown (i believe) so the kill makes sense from scum!nuxl
i guess scum!whydon is possible too but i dont see it.
i just dont know how to read pidge so thats why hes a lynch option for me.
 
Texas Cloverleaf said:
check OMs reads, nks 90% of the time are on people who scum are scared of catching them, conftown or not
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based on this logic this would implicate whydon on their reads as he poed them d4?
he also voted pidge and unvoted them
(for fairness he POEd me d4 and he called me town d5)

that's really the extent of what i can determine as his lynch pool at that point of time
 
vooper said:
Minor error here I’m seeing but idk if it will make a difference cause math ain’t my strongsuit

At 4players when we do not no lynch here we would no lynch there always bringing it to a 2/3 to misslynch rather than a 3/4
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you're right. in that scenario, win chance is 52.38095238, which is 2% lower than 54.28571429 if you no lynch at this day; this is accounting for having 1 confirmed townie right now. if we have 2 confirmed townies or above, then win % is the same whether you no lynch right now or when it is down to 4. however, since this information seems pretty unsavory to most of you, i don't think it matters, but i'm a fuckin' nerd and found it fun to find out.

Texas Cloverleaf said:
Nuxl and pidge are town. End of story
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i low key don't like this conclusion because it means nuxl is never lynched. i'd rather be part of a plan where nuxl is lynched even if i have to be lynched first.

i'm gonna go back and read some posts and see what i can find out.
 
Texas Cloverleaf said:
Pidge is town.
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i don't see this yet

i guess back to my initial thought process is that i personally find pidge killing OM room doesn't make a lot of sense to me because i think it would have been more likely that if pidge killed texas/me as people putting pidge in their poes while being slots that were more "trd" by the end of the day as we were slots that were more interested in actively pressuring pidge; if they made the call of not targetting rssp directly

however i think pidge killing om room and then posting #2446 makes more sense

Pidge said:
also, my solve doesn't matter as much as asek's, who plainly said he wanted nuxl to be lynched next. the reason i value asek's poe so much is because of how accurate he was since day 1. in some ways, it would be a disservice to not do it. he seemed quite confident in his poe as well, we can even flame him if he is wrong.

why was rssp1 not killed? i think it's because he is steering the game in a favorable way for mafia. nuxl, whydon, and duskfall are not in his poe, but hey, i am.
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it's a very real poe that wins if pidge is scum as pointing this out would be beneficial if pidge were mafia. also feel like he could have felt town would have jumped on him had they killed rssp bc they would've been the last overlap between rssp and asek

also kind of bothered by the fact that pidge doesn't really seem to have any reads by himself as a lot of his reads in that post seem to mostly sheep off of other people under the reasoning of lack of experience. i think it's a lot easier to hedge on reads as scum because most people don't wanna seem controversial to blend in

Texas Cloverleaf said:
Dusk --> whydon --> vooper -- > drookez

That's the winning order

Me/rssp/pidge/nuxl town
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why is pidge more towny to you than vooper, whydon, or drookez?
 
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