So, assuming it's 8-3, I think the play should be to lynch Minus 15 because:
1. He left a vote on me in the first half of D1 and never unvoted. "Gut feeling" is not good reasoning when they have me as their only scumread with no other townreads/scumreads. Note that there is a lack of confidence (#724) yet they leave a vote on me (a good friend) when there is a real possibility of me being lynched. This causes me to believe that Hawkie just told him to park on me ("engaged in conversation") and to not draw attention (no posts in the last 24 hours of D1)
2. If this is 8-3, mafia was either roleblocked or killed Caff (unless I'm missing something?). Spiderz claimed to be roleblocked, but he should be considered town if this is 8-3 imo. Therefore, the mafia killed Caff. Caff expressed a desire to CFD to Minus 15 and was suspicious of him all day. Therefore, scum!Minus15 would logically make that kill.
3. Beetlejuice in #620 shows some sort of engagement in the thread, which makes me wonder why he still has not expressed a single read (again, I say that he doesn't want to commit to a read until the gamestate settles down).
4. Suddenly disappears after #724 even though I know he should still be around (it was 12:10 PM)
5. Defensive (#149, #724), wants to convince town not to lynch him, not trying to convince town to lynch someone else
6. If you roll scum in your first game of forum mafia, I'd assume you would want to stay quiet and not ruin the game for your teammates by posting too much and revealing information.