NOC Bigvivor Mafia Game Thread Day 5

Well actually here’s a thought. Was it ever confirmed that the kill had to obey tribe rules? Can someone check Laurel’s flip?

bc from Caff’s POV it makes sense why I’m a likely strongman candidate given the Tribe A thing — granted Caff you can’t actually confirm DLE is town right? — but often kills have different mechanics to regular night actions. Idr if it was actually confirmed or not lol
 
Drookez is still a potentially better candidate than DLE probably, it would make some game design sense for the strongman to have town cred active abilities considering strongman is a powerful passive. If the killer does have to be in Tribe A, anyway
 
Duskfall98 said:
Along with this: The tribe has been split into two

YOU MAY NOT TARGET OR SPEAK TO ANYONE NOT IN YOUR TRIBE FOR THIS NIGHT PHASE
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Duskfall98 said:
Laurel has been voted

You are Tommy, third place.

You played the middle ground most of the game and had a huge effect on who made it to the end, taking your ideal f4 to ftc. But sometimes getting your way isn’t enough to win! Hopefully this time you boot the right people if you get the chance.

Split the Tribe: This ability is a day action. This ability targets everyone in the game, including yourself. Submit two lists during the day phase, splitting the player list into two halves. The lists should be equal length. If an odd number of players exist, you may have one more member in one list.

The two lists will be announced when the day phase ends. Players will by default only be able to target other players in their list, essentially splitting the game in two for the night phase. This includes all forms of communication as well as actions, assuming nothing prevents your ability from taking effect.

If a player is redirected to someone else on another list, the action can succeed. If the player themself targets, it will fail unless they for some reason can ignore the disruption.

You are town, you win when all threats to town have been eliminated from the game.
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If Tommy clarified all targets had to stay within the tribes, it would be quite misleading for him to not count kills. The faction kill requires a target after all.
 
Celever said:
Drookez is still a potentially better candidate than DLE probably, it would make some game design sense for the strongman to have town cred active abilities considering strongman is a powerful passive. If the killer does have to be in Tribe A, anyway
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There was no kill on N3. Nobody has claimed to have blocked a potential strongman. Unless someone would like to do so now rather than cc'ing JK red check, I don't think the strongman is passive.
 
CaffeineBoost said:
If Tommy clarified all targets had to stay within the tribes, it would be quite misleading for him to not count kills. The faction kill requires a target after all.
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Right, that’s not confirmed though. It was just a thought. The number of people pushing discussion toward Tribe A, particularly yesterday, makes me more cynical about the whole situation. In particular because of the shortlist we have left wherein there’s me, the doc, DLE, and a role-wise town benefitting Drookez.

Why me instead of DLE in your reads? If you’re gonna continue to focus on Tribe A, you’re gonna have to give thoughts on them all.

CaffeineBoost said:
There was no kill on N3. Nobody has claimed to have blocked a potential strongman. Unless someone would like to do so now rather than cc'ing JK red check, I don't think the strongman is passive.
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[insert M2H’s even night strongman maybe even night strongman odd night ninja theory here]
 
Celever said:
Right, that’s not confirmed though. It was just a thought. The number of people pushing discussion toward Tribe A, particularly yesterday, makes me more cynical about the whole situation. In particular because of the shortlist we have left wherein there’s me, the doc, DLE, and a role-wise town benefitting Drookez.

Why me instead of DLE in your reads? If you’re gonna continue to focus on Tribe A, you’re gonna have to give thoughts on them all.


[insert M2H’s even night strongman maybe even night strongman odd night ninja theory here]
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I have confirmation that DLE's role is (at the very least partially) Neighbourizer. They neighbourized myself and Clouds (hence how I knew about you contemplating idling N4). I have strong doubts that DLE's role is Neighbourizer + Strongman.
Your role on the other hand is completely unconfirmed. You've idled all 3 days and were supposedly RB'd by someone N4.
While DLE's alignment is unknown, the theory here is specifically about who the strongman in Tribe A is, not who the scum is. After all there could be more than one.

Theorising that the kill is not affected by the tribes seems like grasping to me given the wording that you may not target anyone outside of your tribe during the night phase.
 
CaffeineBoost said:
I have confirmation that DLE's role is (at the very least partially) Neighbourizer. They neighbourized myself and Clouds (hence how I knew about you contemplating idling N4). I have strong doubts that DLE's role is Neighbourizer + Strongman.
Your role on the other hand is completely unconfirmed. You've idled all 3 days and were supposedly RB'd by someone N4.
While DLE's alignment is unknown, the theory here is specifically about who the strongman in Tribe A is, not who the scum is. After all there could be more than one.

Theorising that the kill is not affected by the tribes seems like grasping to me given the wording that you may not target anyone outside of your tribe during the night phase.
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Do you still think there's a decent chance of their being 2 scum in Tribe A? Because I really don't think so and that strikes me as odd for you to say considering you seem to trust DLE a fair bit

It's also really odd that you would call the RB claim into question considering I'm alive. Like Ockham's Razor it and obviously Nuxl targeted me it's as simple as that. It's convenient that Nuxl's target died, after all. Clouds wasn't a particularly sensible target for him last night -- he was still attached to me as a lover, and resultantly had a high mortality rate, so it was unlikely that he would be defending from any kills, and we knew that Clouds' role was modposter which is almost never a scum role and more to the point, if he is scum then it's not a role worth blocking. Going into "supposedly roleblocked and so your role is unconfirmed" honestly is a real scummy line of argument but you have doc clout :|

Neighbouriser is a somewhat common scum role actually. It sets up deepwolves. I feel like that has p good synergy with strongman since scum want their strongman around for as long as possible.

I am kind of clutching at straws wrt making reads based on Tribe A because of the people left in it LOL. This game makes more sense if all 4 people in Tribe A are town.
 
LOL I was downstairs cooking for the last hour and a bit.

Tommy messaged me just over an hour ago on Disc by his own volition confirming shadowpea's wording (p sure this was when I was talking about the wording inconsistency between what Clouds and I were told and what shadow was told). He said mechanically it's like a shot from my buddy. I.E. jailkeeper or doctor targeted me, but also does mean Clouds could be blocked by anything that is able to block the nightkill.

So it's not impossible with Eli's claim that he targeted Clouds because Clouds could have been jailed and therefore the shot failed. Would require a scum strongman, but OK I potentially wasn't protected if Eli is telling the truth. Still don't think Clouds makes sense for him to target, even less than Dyo several nights ago, but w/e

With that said, I was still roleblocked, so there has to be two of them for Eli's thing to work.
 
Celever said:
Do you still think there's a decent chance of their being 2 scum in Tribe A? Because I really don't think so and that strikes me as odd for you to say considering you seem to trust DLE a fair bit
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I'm not making any theories as to the number of scum in Tribe A. Idk what the odds are for number of scum in Tribe A but to me it's at least 1, maybe 2.
This is not a case of trusting DLE. I know that they are at the very least a Neighbourizer. I do not know that you are what you claim to be. This makes it more likely to me that you're the strongman.
Celever said:
It's also really odd that you would call the RB claim into question considering I'm alive. Like Ockham's Razor it and obviously Nuxl targeted me it's as simple as that. It's convenient that Nuxl's target died, after all. Clouds wasn't a particularly sensible target for him last night -- he was still attached to me as a lover, and resultantly had a high mortality rate, so it was unlikely that he would be defending from any kills, and we knew that Clouds' role was modposter which is almost never a scum role and more to the point, if he is scum then it's not a role worth blocking. Going into "supposedly roleblocked and so your role is unconfirmed" honestly is a real scummy line of argument but you have doc clout :|
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Celever said:
LOL I was downstairs cooking for the last hour and a bit.

Tommy messaged me just over an hour ago on Disc by his own volition confirming shadowpea's wording (p sure this was when I was talking about the wording inconsistency between what Clouds and I were told and what shadow was told). He said mechanically it's like a shot from my buddy. I.E. jailkeeper or doctor targeted me, but also does mean Clouds could be blocked by anything that is able to block the nightkill.

So it's not impossible with Eli's claim that he targeted Clouds because Clouds could have been jailed and therefore the shot failed. Would require a scum strongman, but OK I potentially wasn't protected if Eli is telling the truth. Still don't think Clouds makes sense for him to target, even less than Dyo several nights ago, but w/e

With that said, I was still roleblocked, so there has to be two of them for Eli's thing to work.
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Idk how much the rest of post #5532 holds now thanks to post #5533.
Did anything at all happen to you last night Celever?
 
CaffeineBoost said:
I'm not making any theories as to the number of scum in Tribe A. Idk what the odds are for number of scum in Tribe A but to me it's at least 1, maybe 2.
This is not a case of trusting DLE. I know that they are at the very least a Neighbourizer. I do not know that you are what you claim to be. This makes it more likely to me that you're the strongman.


Idk how much the rest of post #5532 holds now thanks to post #5533.
Did anything at all happen to you last night Celever?
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I already said that Tommy is a big meanie who doesn't give success night results. That apparently also extends to failed night results.

Clearly an exception has been made for info roles, but it doesn't apply to my abilities. I receive no night resolution, but Tommy clarified the me and Clouds relationship later as above

The most noteworthy thing is that the simplest explanation by far is still that Nuxl targeted me and not Clouds. It's not useful for you to theorise your way out of the most basic and by far likeliest conclusion. Given the information we currently have on the game, there's not another possibility, but we have some people who haven't claimed.

The issue is that whoever scum roleblocker is, if Nuxl actually is town, is never gonna claim that now.
 
Celever said:
I already said that Tommy is a big meanie who doesn't give success night results. That apparently also extends to failed night results.

Clearly an exception has been made for info roles, but it doesn't apply to my abilities. I receive no night resolution, but Tommy clarified the me and Clouds relationship later as above

The most noteworthy thing is that the simplest explanation by far is still that Nuxl targeted me and not Clouds. It's not useful for you to theorise your way out of the most basic and by far likeliest conclusion. Given the information we currently have on the game, there's not another possibility, but we have some people who haven't claimed.

The issue is that whoever scum roleblocker is, if Nuxl actually is town, is never gonna claim that now.
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The simplest explanation you provide doesn't explain Haruno's death on N2. The simplest explanation to me is that you're lying. Arguing about which of these is the simplest explanation will get us nowhere. You haven't done anything to argue against my theory other than speculate that the host has accidentally misled us and that it's possible nobody in Tribe A is scum.
 
CaffeineBoost said:
The simplest explanation you provide doesn't explain Haruno's death on N2. The simplest explanation to me is that you're lying. Arguing about which of these is the simplest explanation will get us nowhere. You haven't done anything to argue against my theory other than speculate that the host has accidentally misled us and that it's possible nobody in Tribe A is scum.
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It doesn't explain Haruno's death on N2 because that's irrelevant to my explanation, I'm talking about last night. That's why my explanation is simple. There are a number of reasons why Haruno's death may have failed -- there could be a strongman on Tribe A, there could be a roleblocker on Tribe A that blocked you too. Your theory actually depends on there being two roleblockers in this game. Did you discuss protecting Haruno in your neighbourhood? DLE is there, he could have seen it and blocked you. We don't know the answer, so you settling on "Cel is a strongman" is not a theory so much as it is just speculation. Not baseless speculation, but you've hardly solved anything.
 
Celever said:
It doesn't explain Haruno's death on N2 because that's irrelevant to my explanation, I'm talking about last night. That's why my explanation is simple. There are a number of reasons why Haruno's death may have failed -- there could be a strongman on Tribe A, there could be a roleblocker on Tribe A that blocked you too. Your theory actually depends on there being two roleblockers in this game. Did you discuss protecting Haruno in your neighbourhood? DLE is there, he could have seen it and blocked you. We don't know the answer, so you settling on "Cel is a strongman" is not a theory so much as it is just speculation. Not baseless speculation, but you've hardly solved anything.
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Holy shit a decent point.

Yeah DLE neighbourised me N2. Could've blocked me at the same time. We didn't discuss protecting Haruno because... we weren't neighbours until after I had done that. Neighbouriser + Roleblocker makes more sense than Neighbouriser + Strongman.
My theory doesn't depend on there being two roleblockers though. It's possible with just one.
Thanks for your time.
 
CaffeineBoost said:
Holy shit a decent point.

Yeah DLE neighbourised me N2. Could've blocked me at the same time. We didn't discuss protecting Haruno because... we weren't neighbours until after I had done that. Neighbouriser + Roleblocker makes more sense than Neighbouriser + Strongman.
My theory doesn't depend on there being two roleblockers though. It's possible with just one.
Thanks for your time.
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It's possible with just one because you're throwing away some of the information that we do have (that my abilities were blocked last night) and claiming pretty baselessly that it's a lie. If you're unwilling to account for that, it's just speculation.

You were p big on believing my claim yesterday IIRC. Also strikes me as weird today that you entered with a scum doctor thesis, that's more tinfoily than this but it shows that you were really trying to implicate me somehow. Again it's a scummy line of reasoning because it's hyper-focussed on one player when there are just as valid options elsewhere. You have doc clout, but that doesn't mean you're correct now.
 
Celever said:
It's possible with just one because you're throwing away some of the information that we do have (that my abilities were blocked last night) and claiming pretty baselessly that it's a lie. If you're unwilling to account for that, it's just speculation.

You were p big on believing my claim yesterday IIRC. Also strikes me as weird today that you entered with a scum doctor thesis, that's more tinfoily than this but it shows that you were really trying to implicate me somehow. Again it's a scummy line of reasoning because it's hyper-focussed on one player when there are just as valid options elsewhere. You have doc clout, but that doesn't mean you're correct now.
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I was hyperfocused on you because I wanted to pressure you. See what you'd do to argue against my theory. Provide the counter-examples I might not be thinking of.
I wasn't throwing away your info. Based on N2, I thought that if anyone was a strongman (the most reasonable way someone could bypass my heal on Haruno and Nuxl's JK on Clouds imo), then you were the most likely candidate. Nuxl JK'ing you did not explain N2. Someone else RB'ing you however would. After our discussion, that possibility has been shown and does cast some reasonable doubt since said possibility could also explain N2. Mind you, if nothing happened to you N4 then it seems that DLE didn't target you so the other candidate for who roleblocked me is a bit sketchy still. It's possible though DLE can RB and Neighbourise two different targets.
My scum doctor theory did admittedly come from the "how would Celever be alive, well if he's most likely to be strongman then someone on scum could've healed him" line of thought. Given that a roleblock on Clouds would supposedly stop you from dying, Nuxl being on Clouds would explain you still being alive, so that line of thought isn't worth chasing any more... though I would say that it's still possible Nuxl is your teammate.

The conclusion I can draw from this is that there's reasonable doubt cast onto DLE's status as just a neighbouriser, since he could also be a roleblocker as well.
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
waiting for a claim btw :)
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WAIT wait wait wait wait wait wait

Yeah

The N2 wipe. No one owned up to it, so we assumed it was Ayia, right?

Ayia’s Tribe A.

At this stage I don’t know if I believe that’s another scum role concentrated in Tribe A. Ayia never said he was wiped, so it’s probably prudent to think the N2 wipe has fwr remained unclaimed, or that it was maybe like, Dave who didn’t see the desire for the claim while catching up??
 
Celever said:
WAIT wait wait wait wait wait wait

Yeah

The N2 wipe. No one owned up to it, so we assumed it was Ayia, right?

Ayia’s Tribe A.

At this stage I don’t know if I believe that’s another scum role concentrated in Tribe A. Ayia never said he was wiped, so it’s probably prudent to think the N2 wipe has fwr remained unclaimed, or that it was maybe like, Dave who didn’t see the desire for the claim while catching up??
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celever go to sleep but also yeah these are possibilities. theres not really any inactive townies left at this point so i have to wonder what the benefit of anyone ACTIVELY withholding that information from us would be. like if youre waiting to pull it out like a rabbit out of a hat when you get voted to save yourself, no ones gonna believe you so may as well come out with it now
 
Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
ftr my role was psy. my ability allowed me to target two people, and those two could not target each other. i could target myself (but not consecutively) and i couldnt block myself

n1 i targeted hal/apricity and celever and that was the same night i was wiped so i never got to use it again

out of curiousity, who was wiped last night?
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This role is interesting to me since it both corroborates and contradicts a claim DLE made in our chat.
 
also im confused about why mafia kills clouds here if celever is mafia. if you believe killing clouds will also kill celever, why even go through the shenanigans of jailkeeping or healing or whatever mess happened last night? why not just kill someone else instead? especially since clouds wasnt exactly confirmed or anything. there are i guess a few explanations im thinking of

1) clouds and celever were both town. mafia wanted to kill two town but if nuxl jked celever for mafia reasons then they should know this doesnt work unless they were also confused by the wording of the role so??
2) shadowpea and celever are both mafia, and so everyone knew the wording of the role and knew how to circumvent it so that celever wouldnt die. but then why would shadowpea tether celever and clouds in the first place? so celever couldnt be voted??
3) clouds was too close to the truth to stay alive in that his suspicious of nuxl/celever/whoever else idk were mostly dead on and mafia was scared that he'd make a correct push if he stayed alive. this is the only reason i can see clouds being an important enough kill for this to happen, since its not like clouds had that amazing of an ability set

if celever is town, it makes sense that he was jked regardless of the kill so that he couldnt use his abilities so clouds would always be protected there. im also confused at why, if there is an even night strongman, they didnt just attack normally and then clouds and celever would just die??? what is the goal of this super tricky and complicated web? just to be confusing? this probably doesnt make any sense but idk something doesnt add up with this sequence of events
 
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