I’m going to go into detail on trying to look at this anti-Tera post, as it’s one of the first that isn’t just saying Tera is unpredictable so it should be banned. Starting out with I have no hate for anti-Tera people, and value both opinions. However, I have seen more compelling arguments from the pro-Tera side, so let’s look at this argument, shall we?
So I was initially pro-Tera, but the more I climb the more it feels like a problem, and I want to do a mini breakdown on which part exactly I'm having problem with.
Out of the all things Tera provided, the Adaptabilty boost is really strong and pushes into a meta that favors offense. It can sometimes feel unfair, but doesn't feel too unhealthy because it is something you can often EV for if you choose to do so.
I mostly agree with this point. I do think that it isn’t too unhealthy because you can EV for it. However, I would like to say that same type Tera is probably the exact wrong way to be using this. Outside of maybe Palafin and Dragapult, I don’t see this being too useful, since the power boost is not too noticeable at this point in the meta.
The access to coverage of any type from Tera Blast can also feel unfair sometimes, but if I do get hit by a surprise coverage move I often don't mind just sucking it up and pretend I got hit by Hidden Power. Personally it doesn't feel too unhealthy, because putting Tera Blast on a mon has the opportunity cost of a move slot, and putting enough pressure on the opponent to Tera another of their mon is a very reasonable punish. Getting hit by a surprise coverage might be unpleasant, but there is still some level of skill expression in terms of maintaining offensive momentum.
Once again, I agree with this point. Tera Blast is a very high risk high reward version of hidden power that almost requires you to Tera any Pokémon that has this move. One possible exception would be Magnezone, which can run Tera Fire Tera Blast, but doesn’t have to Tera if there’s nothing it needs to trap. Pult and Tera Blast Palafin variants NEED to Tera to use this move, as otherwise they are playing with 3 moves. Very high risk, but high reward and can be used in interesting ways. I personally no longer think that Tera Blast is broken as I did earlier, because of it’s high risk nature.
EXCEPT...
What is not fine to me is actually just the change in typing itself, as it turns offense vs offense entirely matchup dependent, and one of the biggest offender of this is Roaring Moon. Roaring Moon currently has 2 main Tera types, in Flying and Steel, which expectedly have different defensive checks, which imo feels fine for defensive teams because when I play a bulky team, I don't mind preparing something for Flying Ground coverage, and something to for Dark Steel coverage. But on offense, you tend to prepare less for specific types and more for specific Pokemon.
Roaring Moon is more of the problem here than Tera, as I firmly believe that Moon is broken and Tera looking broken is a symptom of that. It doesn’t need Dragon coverage, as Throat Chop/Jaw Lock hits hard enough for neutral, and it doesn’t want to lock itself into Outrage. Acro disintegrates Breloom anyway, and Booster Energy speed Roaring Moon at +1 can outspeed even Booster Energy Iron Bundle and hit it for solid damage with it’s Dark type STAB. Tera Steel has its own set of problems, notably making you somehow weaker to Palafin and other revenge killers while not fixing your Fighting weakness. Tera Flying is an all or nothing gambit that can flip Roaring Moon’s checks on their heads, but doesn’t change some matchups, like against Ice types. Thus the risk factor for picking your Tera types still is there, and Tera isn’t a de facto “Delete all of my checks” button. You have to think about how it works with your team, as to maximize your advantage. Short version that also answers the above question: How is Tera matchup fishing different from regular matchup fishing? Wouldn’t you rather Tera into a more universally useful type? Well, that depends on your team composition what the most useful Tera type is, and a good player can look at the team and be like “Hm! This pokemon is likely this Tera type because of this threat into their team!” As the meta develops, Tera types for pokemon should shift to 1 to 3 types, easing the prediction and allowing for more creative strategies.
In the same example of Roaring Moon, Ice is good for Tera Flying, and Fighting priority is good for Tera Steel, and if you happen to run into the one you are not prepared for, you kinda just lose. Even if you prepared for Roaring Moon with both Iron Bundle and Breloom, you can still miss the 50/50 and lose one of your "checks" for nothing. In previous gens, if you can't deal with something defensively, you always had the option to sack something and send in a "revenge killer". Except Tera being a thing means you have to send in the correct revenge killer. The Roaring Moon user in this example is always at the advantage, where the opponent is staring down at a 50/50 at best.
Reminder here that Tera can only be used once per battle. One it’s used, the jig is up. If, say, Roaring Moon is facing off against an Iron Bundle and Palafin team. I know, I know, not the most optimal. But, say the Roaring Moon has the Steel tera type. You would want to try to set up against the Iron Bundle by taking it by surprise, but then the damage you take puts you into Palafin Mach Punch range. You can try to set up on Palafin here, but you would take a lot of damage, possibly too much if Palafin pulls out a fighting move. So you would want to set up on something else, no? Well, the opponent manages to kill your Roaring Moon by using their Tera Electric on their Iron Bundle to take a Tera Flying Acrobatics and kill back with Tera Blast, or chip it enough with Freeze-Dry to put it into Palafin range. 1 for 1 trade, both players used their Tera, neither swept. Either that or Iron Bundle lives and now you have to revenge kill it. That’s how every HO meta for the past few generations has worked. Tera is a symptom, not a cause.
I think the hallmark of a unhealthy mechanic is the lack of a reliable counterplay. A past generation example of what I would consider a "reliable counterplay" would be "Toxapex running Shed Shell to escape Whirlpool Fini". This might feel like an exaggeration, but the 50/50s that Terastalisation forces feels like "Toxapex running Shed Shell to escape Whirlpool Fini, except Shed Shell only success half the time", which is simply unhealthy even if it were not broken.
This isn’t the greatest comparison in my opinion, since this is more like if Pex and Fini were on every team and had this interaction every game. However, your opponent could assume you were Shed Shell every game and play accordingly. Even with that, Tera trends are comparable to Z move trends, but with less immediate power in the mix. Defensive Tera usage actually leads to a more healthy metagame, since Tera will always be easier to counterplay once it’s revealed. So this is less of a “Shed Shell Pex but it only works 50% of the time” situation but is more of a “Shed Shell vs Gunk Shot Pex(which yes is a set I actually used to deal with Whirlpool Fini, it did work) to deal with Fini” situation. Both have different opportunity cost, and both solve the issue, just one is a more defensive method and one is a more aggressive method.
All in all, I appreciate the post as it’s by far one of the best anti-Tera posts out there so far, but these are my personal thoughts on it. Kudos to you, escarlata, and happy laddering!
edit bcus I forgor to say this: I don’t think now is the best time to take action on Tera, as the meta has barely taken shape yet. Let’s hope to see some of the OP new mons go before even thinking of giving Tera the boot. Even with that in mind, I feel as if Tera will feel more manageable as the gen goes on, and it will be a central part of the balance.
