(1) Denver Nuggets versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers
“I believe the only muscles you need in basketball are the ones in your brain.” – Nikola Jokic
A rematch from the bubble isn’t exactly what I expected, but I’ll take it for entertainment. Both teams have radically shifted the margins of their roster the past three years. Jokic improved tremendously, and LeBron has become older. Will the result change?
The most important and maybe the only important thing to make note of in this matchup is how Jokic/AD fair one-on-one. The matchup between the tallest players on the court who have the most talent will decide the pace, scoring, and defense of both teams. Jokic represents the hub of the best offense. AD represents the backline of the best defense. It’s truly a question of the age old of immovable force versus unstoppable object. Either the greatest offense falters or the greatest defense falters, and the way these two centers play will trickle down to the rest of the roster fittingly over the course of the series.
In 2020, Los Angeles has the benefit of having a plethora of physical big men. Dwight Howard most notably was a key in that series, and frustrated Jokic with physical play and added on extra fouls. Today, Los Angeles does not play a legit center behind AD and instead has opted for LeBron at center during these playoffs. So, Darvin Ham can go about this in a few ways. He can have AD help off Gordon while someone like Vanderbilt guards Jokic in order to keep AD on the floor and out of potential foul trouble. He can also trust AD’s individual defense and try to get Jokic in foul trouble instead. Either way, it’s a very peculiar offense Los Angeles isn’t immediately equipped to stop as Jokic is a player you simply must stay attached to, and if AD is attached to him, that leaves the paint more open for cuts and drives. Guys like LeBron and Vanderbilt will have to hold up strong at the rim if that is the case. I’m very interested in seeing what Ham attempts to defend Denver’s offense with more limited choice in frontcourt players.
Conversely, Malone could have Gordon on AD or switch on AD quite often. I like his chances better than most of what we've seen AD as far as who he's been matched up against. If you give KD trouble, you may be able to do the same for AD.
Gordon/James will surely be interesting, and I imagine James will make the most of his help defense when he can. It’s up to Gordon to punish with threes and cuts out of the dunker spot. He did very well when given Durant. James comes with more strength and IQ. My only concern when it comes to LeBron is his conditioning with Denver’s altitude. His shot has left him, so will Denver zone him out and make it harder for him to post? LeBron will have to use more stamina than he has thus far and make more long-distance shots.
We should also expect James to go matchup hunting even more in this series than the last. He will likely want to target Murray, who is the only other important piece on this team. In fact, it would be smart for Los Angeles to run both Jokic/Murray in a pick and roll with LeBron/AD. If they can legitimately contain Jokic/Murray pick and roll and attack it successfully, Los Angeles will easily be in the driver’s seat to the NBA Finals because that’d put that much pressure on Jokic to try to force doubles with his one-on-one play.
Murray will want to do as much matchup hunting and try to keep the Denver backcourt competitive with Los Angeles’ backcourt. I’m not too keen on how well he’ll be able to do that considering Curry couldn’t in Round 2, but he is more of the isolation scorer than he is.
I feel this series hangs on the two centers, and I genuinely think both teams have strong arguments to be favored to advance. Denver’s homecourt advantage and altitude is not what Los Angeles exactly needed considering both of their stars do better when they have rest. Then on the other side, you have an opposing center who can draw fouls on Jokic and a tall forward who can attack and draw fouls on Murray. That was exactly the combination it took for Los Angeles to walk by them in 2020. Will it replicate? You know I always put my money on defense.
Denver wins if: Los Angeles fails to contain Jokic individually one-on-one, and he successfully draws AD out of the paint for long stretches. AD can’t stay on the floor or in the paint. LeBron can’t shoot or consistently be successful on offense. Murray manages to orchestrate good offense and not be a liability on defense. Gordo. Brings a defensive masterclass effort. Denver can quicken the pace, keep Los Angeles off the line, and maintain their offensive efficiency.
Los Angeles wins if: Jokic loses his individual matchup with AD, and AD remains a defensive force. LeBron picks on Denver’s perimeter and kills them from the post. Murray can’t cook against Los Angeles’ backcourt, and is getting cooked himself. Los Angeles slows the pace, gets to the line, and LeBron/Vanderbilt are great when AD is attached to Jokic.
Lakers in six.
Heat/Celtics
Honestly, I'm tired of talking about this series. Spoelstra is amazing with a limited roster, Celtics are talented. I don't know. I don't care.