NOC Smalltown Hotel Mafia - Game Thread (MAFIA WINS)

i think it says about eli only that you and him are both not mafia at base instinct. i think that both of you being mafia is impossible since in what world does a mafia put that much soulread into their partner unprompted after a page or two of wondering about old games?

thought experiment to find a way to reach your conclusion: mafia eli, knowing you are town and under the spotlight due to your role and interactions with spy, likely doesn't need to even put that much energy into trying to push you overboard. i struggle to see the logic of mafia eli putting in that much effort into trying to provide town with a read on someone who is already being given attention. maybe it's like, oh this fella needs to be gone d1 bc we as maf don't want to use our kill on him, but the way the day is going it seems like a tommy wagon isn't likely. but i don't see that as being the likely state of affairs
 
anyways ive asked enough people, the post isnt important because of his conclsuion on me

the main reason it is important is the sheer amount of work he did, deep diving into my games a lot, then unsure to post because even he thought "its not that constructive"

but the most important part is, for me, if eli was mafia why the hell would he ever bother to do something like that, and if he did, why so extensively

the post is just something mafia doesnt do, even if they think it would clear them, the amount of energy needed to construct it like basically never happens

for me, even if eli hasnt done a good job of casing me (which is debatable and not my opinion), the amount of work he clearly put into it shows he definitely is TRYING to work out my alignment, and hes just town here 99 percent of the time
 
Lady Salamence said:
i think it says about eli only that you and him are both not mafia at base instinct. i think that both of you being mafia is impossible since in what world does a mafia put that much soulread into their partner unprompted after a page or two of wondering about old games?

thought experiment to find a way to reach your conclusion: mafia eli, knowing you are town and under the spotlight due to your role and interactions with spy, likely doesn't need to even put that much energy into trying to push you overboard. i struggle to see the logic of mafia eli putting in that much effort into trying to provide town with a read on someone who is already being given attention. maybe it's like, oh this fella needs to be gone d1 bc we as maf don't want to use our kill on him, but the way the day is going it seems like a tommy wagon isn't likely. but i don't see that as being the likely state of affairs
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yeah you mentioned part of the reasoning here, i may be wrong but i dont think youve played as mafia before right? correct me if i am wrong

the amount of mental fortitude it would take to make a case like that and deep dive me so hard as wolf is really insane, like that alone bsaically makes him town i think, but then to do it and not try use it to body me, but hedge away? now at THAT point is basically becomes unbelievable
 
Duskfall98 said:
anyways ive asked enough people, the post isnt important because of his conclsuion on me

the main reason it is important is the sheer amount of work he did, deep diving into my games a lot, then unsure to post because even he thought "its not that constructive"

but the most important part is, for me, if eli was mafia why the hell would he ever bother to do something like that, and if he did, why so extensively

the post is just something mafia doesnt do, even if they think it would clear them, the amount of energy needed to construct it like basically never happens

for me, even if eli hasnt done a good job of casing me (which is debatable and not my opinion), the amount of work he clearly put into it shows he definitely is TRYING to work out my alignment, and hes just town here 99 percent of the time
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i dont like this. to me this feels like tommy trying to flip around elis read and shake off his pressure by townreading him
 
realiti said:
Early skip vote + weird reads list that didn't make much sense
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Early skip vote was made to put some pressure on Skip, as he said he was a new player
Read list probably doesn't make sense because I don't know what I'm doing :)

Psypsypsypsypsythe said:
this is an extremely idiotic post btw and I scumread hal for it. part of why I was scumreading hal in cool was because his push on me was so dumb that, with him allegedly being a smart and valuable town player, I didnt believe that he believed it. this also is not a post that feels like it comes from town hal. no one is trying to get back at you for last game please get over your own ego. everyone is just asking you to come into thread and help solve which you have not done, instead opting for the bad push on skip and doing whatever useless nonsense it is you've been doing. hopefully this clears things up a bit for you
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That's one of the main posts that made me temporarily go for the hal vote as well
Nuxl said:
T psy
tl celever
feel like i can v break: skipper ls jalmont
dont wanna touch but cant justify putting higher given past instances: hal realiti
sortable nulls: oj ag hh
imminent poe: tommy m24

By all means feel free to not read into this and the next paragraph but i feel like again and again my greatest strength - and weakness - has always been meta and familiarity with a playerlist. I have won (many, many games) off of meta and lost games (only a few, i think) off of meta and a lot of the time when I used to play it would be my go-to factor for picking out intricacies behind peoples playstyle. However I suppose mafia is the type of game where yeah people are just gonna adapt and get better or their posting style is just gonna change over time. Despite that for the past uh maybe 4-5 hours (it's light outside and 5 am here) i've been trying to earnestly cross check everyone's meta which isn't something I've done before. Also havent wrote a case-esque post since my first game so das cool. Trying to find ways to read people that dont send me in wifom hell too, but I have a feeling I'm always gonna be uneasy about that kind of stuff until I can find something more consistent.

I have other notes on some players that I don't really wanna reveal - the important part of this post will be my takeaways which you can find at the bottom. I'll have them copypaste ready if somehow it's pertinent and thread traction goes towards me or whatever but tbh it probably won't so lmfao. One of the best parts about eating d1 townreads is that there's less of a magnifying glass on my posts lols

Earlier in the game I thought Celever was awful and it starts with this post





where he just kinda sits there and is like awfully sideliney for about 20 pages

however i can now share that it felt in matrices he did the same shit, just that this game he was less active on the start. I don't think I wanna give that read too much credit, and like especially given the last scumgame I read it actually felt like he felt like he was sideliney but in the sense that he didn't fit into the thread as much. His content was hidden behind wall-posts and a lack of isolated 1 on 1s whereas this game it was... legit nonexistent for a while. Which is, like not great, but it is different. Despite the fact that it was 3 years ago, and not that I think Celever would be the type of player who would have trouble fitting in as scum (cos he clearly didnt before), but he’s having trouble fitting in now when he feels like he wouldnt have a problem before if u know wat I mean. Now that I’ve written it out it probably reads super dumb but it's like a circular level reasoning to get me here?

While the content pushed after is probably fakable I think it’s fine enough to where I don’t think I wanna touch Celever. He’s shown in the past that he’s had no issues firing out shit to get the game rolling. His early pages sucked bad but i come around to feeling like a towny pov of suck lmfao.

JALMONT

yea im ngl i had no idea what MONTy mole is posting until I thought about it. i can’t really in good faith force myself to make a strong read here because obviously his posts are crafted to not have reads whatsoever, so it’s unusual behavior. But if I had to GTH it feels like behavior that’s more likely to come from town than scum - in a team setting would this approach only be made like… ig if you were the scumteam leader or if the wagons look real good for his team? his team wouldnt be in the voting pool? Like playing mafia like this isnt going to be very charismatic or generate a lot of vote pressure anyway because it’s moving towards a mech way to solve the game when from prior experience jalmont should know most smogon games are kinda based on creating reads d1 despite how useless that might sound to new 2023 zen mode monty mole.

Also his team would probably want him to make reads ig. Like genuinely he would have to be the most experienced player in a scumteam. Is that a fair point cos I know I would hate his posts lmfao.

I feel like I would understand this more with stronger meta, but here are three of JALMONTs’ last games (first 2 v, 1 scum) on the site iirc. Doubt anybody will read them and they’re also a kajillion years old (I didn’t, I just looked at his isos) so feel free to not give a fuck but yea. Which like the first two are kinda consistent with his mentality just in a less overtly role-solving way.

https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/13p-matrix-14-no-multiball-game-thread-game-over.3655892/ (2020)
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/crisis-in-ck9-city-serial-killer-wins.3661057/ (late 2019)

https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/reinforcements-scum-win.3642171/ (late 2018)

Lady Salamence

The first thing I noted about LS was that I think there is a bit of experience growth between last game and this game which is cool to see unrelated to anything alignment-wise. I would probably have immediately screamed coachable if mafia didn’t have an hourish to prepare for game start LOL because their posting during the first few pages was honestly pretty good. I kinda maintain that newer scum players will likely feel more nervous entering the thread and that hasn’t really showed as-so-far. Definitely the best reason to townread the slot would be that.

I think my only caveat with Lady Salamence is that while I liked their posting some of their actual posts has got me a lil lost like #1346 is super weird cos 1. it feels like they are the only other subscriber to jalmonts stuff and 2. Lady Salamence whats with the drop from townreading tommy -> kinda sring him?

HydrogenHydreigon

I dont have a read rn. Like until HH finds a way to consistently post on D1 or roll scum it'll be a little harder for everyone lmfao. Only has a section cos I wanted to mention that I voted HH earlier in the game once cos his opener was more assertive than his past two town games and that felt like a bit of unnatural confidence. Tried to iso and anything I could post here is honestly not stable enough.

skippergamez

i think posting has been fine for a first time forum mafia player. I would say it's confidently inconsistent? Which is different from being confident and consistent as your first game. Skipper doesnt look scared at all to post or have inconsistent or unexplained reads. Gave them a plus that they said no to not voting apricity lmfao. It’s likely a V break

M24

i am raising a bit of an eyebrow with thread trajectory towards the slot, but it does feel like they’re a bit more cautious this game. Felt like they threw around their vote more in matrices whereas here their entrance was more stationed behind setup spec, then in the morning it was a readslist into a vote they didnt believe in as much compared to their past readslist

Like looking into it they thought deadline was soon and is that why they voted hal? I guess thats believable. The actual post for voting hal read like they needed to sell themselves onto a wagon lmao with 10 minutes to go at eod. But why the retraction in their vote after as if a puppy was kicked lmao after the fact, nobody needs my approval to do anything.

realiti

Originally his posts read as fine and he agreed with me on stuff so I gave him a pass. Looking at his games I think I actually picked up a couple tendencies as either alignment and he’s not out of his wolf range. Him being relatively more inactive doesn't help a lot but his votes and posts havent been like, awful or anything. So kinda regressing on realiti - not shade, just have to hold myself a bit more accountable.

In good news I think I will have a better idea around eod.

Psypsypsypsypsythe

I didn’t wanna be biased so I went through MU and I think I have a strong meta read here to back up my actual tr on him of which nobody seems to care about why so yea. Would be the game of his life if he was scum here

apricity

For this section I’m just not going to meta dig. I genuinely don’t think it will help me lol.

Here are all the general issues people probably should have with Hal
-Disconnection with his initial townread on Psy, then proceeding to call specifically me out for saying Psy was a town read even though he said Psy looked worse
-Changing his reads from being weirded out into sheeping mine and staying on course with that for
-Not explaining his reads despite confidence in them (this is more of a person by person thing, though!)
-This post lol


Do you know what the problem is? It’s obv not readable, or even good, content, but his scum game was a lot more smoothed out and communicative and - oh ya he was scum lol. And he obviously knows this, so he can post whatever the fuck he wants because it’s, well, not his scum meta. The only way to hold him accountable is to vote him but idk everyone in the game wants to vote him and not many people are in his corner. So that just feels more off to me thread wise

I also just think if he randed scum with another stronger player he wouldn’t be playing like this and would take a different approach. But, well, I clearly do not have the rights to comment on this after cool weapon so shrug emoji heart emoji

uh as for master oden and aura guardian i have some notes but im gonna take more time with the deadline extend cos i dont think iso digging will help and live thread will probably work better too. They’re both idks for me though
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Hey don't believe me if you want, but i made the hal vote irregardless of knowing that eod was potentially coming up. I literally just noticed it 6 minutes later
 
the funny thing about this is that let's say that eli and i are right and tommy is scum

do i have any outs to win the game?

bpv will get swapped off eli and he dies

my teammates would be like, psy? realiti which is good.

cel drops on a tommy red flip

oj is more likely town with tommy red

but psy doesn't fix his read on the thread most of the time
 
M24 said:
THE READLIST 2.0

Townlean:
psy
skippergamez
Duskfall98
Nuxl (they spend way too much time scrolling through meta reads, i mean if they are scum, they deserve it ig for the effort)
apricity (The big nuxl post helped somewhat, I think he initially had a defeatist town attitude, but doesn't strike me as scum anymore.)

Neutral: (Ordered from top to bottom as most town -> least town)
JALMONT (Mainly the big role analyzer at the moment, while that's useful because I have no idea what optimal role play is, it's easily something to boost town confidence in you as maf)
Celever
LS (i feel sorta ok about them?)
realiti
Hydro (back to not seeing a lot of content from them, definitely unsure about their slot)

Scumlean:
Aura Guardian
master oden (nothing has changed my mind from them yet)
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updated list, don't have a ton of time to dig back through page rn, so updated with new descriptions for the ones i changed
 
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