Votecount v2.1 - Turns out there haven't been a lot of posts since the last VC.
Duskfall98 [2*] - realiti, M24
Aura Guardian [2] - master oden
Hammer is 7
Duskfall98 [2*] - realiti, M24
Aura Guardian [2] - master oden
Hammer is 7
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NOC Smalltown Hotel Mafia - Game Thread (MAFIA WINS)
- Thread starter CaffeineBoost
- Start date
well i aint it so we better hope it is Tommy
Confirm
I was planning on waiting for more discussion before voting. But you have a certain compelling logic, and Dusk did just vote me
Vote Duskfall98
This day is going downright terribly lol, I've been saying it all game but what a terrible threadstate.
For some actual analysis, let's consider the economics behind the threadstate a little.
Players from highest to lowest WIM (roughly):
Tommy
Nuxl
JALMONT
skipper
M24
Celever
AG
LS
realiti
hal
oden
Players from lowest to highest LHF quantity (roughly:)
JALMONT
Nuxl
skipper (but this is remarkable)
oden
realiti
hal
LS
Celever
AG
Tommy
[M24 is literally dying already]
A note on skipper:
skipper having small LHF quota while being on Hydro at EoD yesterday and jumping on there around deadline is crazy, but everyone has said we should vote between AG and Tommy today based on the wagon (or me if your name is oden). Early in D1 people were scumreading and/or writing skipper off as just being a newbie who shouldn't be taken that seriously. I was the first to hard townread him and got challenged on and defended it, and since then that take got canonised completely by essentially the entire thread. It is very plausible it was spoken into existence and skipper is literally just a shielded wolf.
Back to economics:
High-Low WIM and Low-High LHF should roughly correlate, with the usual exception being made for being wrong a lot. The primary exceptions in the current threadstate are:
When the thread dies, it is for a reason. That reason is for one of two reasons:
Nuxl. End of list.
Viable Vote Options at EoD today who could convincingly get turboed:
LS, Celever, AG, Tommy. Hal is on the fringe.
I'm not saying necessarily that the above list of 4-5 players has 0 mafia in it. But does it have 2? In my view, almost definitely not. Wolves would not leave thread in the current position if that were the case, because it runs the risk of W/W leading wagons at EoD.
The first thing I am going to say is I am not voting for Tommy today. The logic behind it stinks. Tommy is uncategorically the most obvious player for mafia to misvote today if he is town, and the reason why is because he was wrong rather than because he was necessarily scummy. Can it be taken with skepticism that Tommy actually messed up his role usage? Sure. But let's consider that reality a little more.
Is it that comprehensive or that well thought out? No, not really. Did I include myself? Yes, because it's useful for me using the realiti-approved logic of working out how others are treating my slot and reading based off of that. Are some players barely filled in? Yes.
Tommy's main scumbud equity that actually benefits from him "messing up" using the role is with oden. I'm not 100% sure what I think about skipper and his relationship so it's blank, but it's also contentful. Just a bit of scumbud equity with a bit of anti-scumbud equity. Similarly, I landed on soft negative with AG but that could just as easily be soft equity, though considering I don't think 2 from the aforementioned pool are maf the neg equity holds a little truer. If true, AG's also obviously a great reason not to use the action properly. Considering I think Tommy / Oden / AG is, despite some other stuff in this post, literally possible, then in that sort of universe him not using the action makes sense.
Another thing to seriously note about this chart is that a blank cell has value. If Oden is your buddy, your only option is to get into a fake argument with him, openly buddy him, or ignore him altogether. Eli's relative lack of strong relationships, being only really with Tommy and Hal, is notable in its own right too.
--------------------------------------------
I'm not totally sure what conclusion I'm drawing from this, or if I am. Other than the fact that JALMONT and apricity are my towncore now because it just kind of makes sense.
For some actual analysis, let's consider the economics behind the threadstate a little.
Players from highest to lowest WIM (roughly):
Tommy
Nuxl
JALMONT
skipper
M24
Celever
AG
LS
realiti
hal
oden
Players from lowest to highest LHF quantity (roughly:)
JALMONT
Nuxl
skipper (but this is remarkable)
oden
realiti
hal
LS
Celever
AG
Tommy
[M24 is literally dying already]
A note on skipper:
skipper having small LHF quota while being on Hydro at EoD yesterday and jumping on there around deadline is crazy, but everyone has said we should vote between AG and Tommy today based on the wagon (or me if your name is oden). Early in D1 people were scumreading and/or writing skipper off as just being a newbie who shouldn't be taken that seriously. I was the first to hard townread him and got challenged on and defended it, and since then that take got canonised completely by essentially the entire thread. It is very plausible it was spoken into existence and skipper is literally just a shielded wolf.
Back to economics:
High-Low WIM and Low-High LHF should roughly correlate, with the usual exception being made for being wrong a lot. The primary exceptions in the current threadstate are:
- oden, wherein everyone just townreads him either because they don't want to have to deal with his performance that inevitably comes from receiving any pressure whatsoever, or because they deem him an unreadable slot due to providing low content density, or because they haven't cared to look into him much and have just not been pinged much one way or the other at a glance. oden is playing a self-pres game where all he is trying to do is stay alive, and while that may be their playstyle, immunises themself from being seriously read.
- hal had an early D1 push and has since ridden the negative momentum generated in the pushback of that push. Low contribution but genuinely shielded.
- The same story for realiti. Realiti was a hardcore scumread on the part of Psy, and despite low contribution he is literally just quite shielded and no wagon on him would ever build serious momentum.
- Tommy, because he's been wrong a lot. This exception is correlated the opposite way to the above 3 players.
When the thread dies, it is for a reason. That reason is for one of two reasons:
- Wolves are confident they can keep the vote off themselves during EoD chaos. AKA they have a chokehold on the game and are in positions of power.
- Wolves are not perceived as viable vote options.
Nuxl. End of list.
Viable Vote Options at EoD today who could convincingly get turboed:
LS, Celever, AG, Tommy. Hal is on the fringe.
I'm not saying necessarily that the above list of 4-5 players has 0 mafia in it. But does it have 2? In my view, almost definitely not. Wolves would not leave thread in the current position if that were the case, because it runs the risk of W/W leading wagons at EoD.
The first thing I am going to say is I am not voting for Tommy today. The logic behind it stinks. Tommy is uncategorically the most obvious player for mafia to misvote today if he is town, and the reason why is because he was wrong rather than because he was necessarily scummy. Can it be taken with skepticism that Tommy actually messed up his role usage? Sure. But let's consider that reality a little more.
- Duskfall98 - Role Swapper
- master oden - Doublevoter
- skippergamez - Tracker
- Aura Guardian - Motivator
- Nuxl - 1-Shot Bulletproof
- M24 - Bus Driver
- Lady Salamence - Fruit Vendor
- JALMONT - Absorber
- realiti - 1-Shot Poisoner
- Celever - Kill Delayer
- apricity - 1-Shot Gladiator
Is it that comprehensive or that well thought out? No, not really. Did I include myself? Yes, because it's useful for me using the realiti-approved logic of working out how others are treating my slot and reading based off of that. Are some players barely filled in? Yes.
Tommy's main scumbud equity that actually benefits from him "messing up" using the role is with oden. I'm not 100% sure what I think about skipper and his relationship so it's blank, but it's also contentful. Just a bit of scumbud equity with a bit of anti-scumbud equity. Similarly, I landed on soft negative with AG but that could just as easily be soft equity, though considering I don't think 2 from the aforementioned pool are maf the neg equity holds a little truer. If true, AG's also obviously a great reason not to use the action properly. Considering I think Tommy / Oden / AG is, despite some other stuff in this post, literally possible, then in that sort of universe him not using the action makes sense.
Another thing to seriously note about this chart is that a blank cell has value. If Oden is your buddy, your only option is to get into a fake argument with him, openly buddy him, or ignore him altogether. Eli's relative lack of strong relationships, being only really with Tommy and Hal, is notable in its own right too.
--------------------------------------------
I'm not totally sure what conclusion I'm drawing from this, or if I am. Other than the fact that JALMONT and apricity are my towncore now because it just kind of makes sense.
My real takeaway actually is the PoE I'm working from if we want to play today optimally is:
skipper
oden
realiti
Basically the most probable breakdown of game positioning right now is there is a wolf in skipper / oden / realiti / hal and possibly two, a wolf that is either Eli or a vibe-wise low content UTR (LS, AG, M24), and a wolf that is secondarily from one of the before groups, or is Tommy / JALMONT / me. But like, cumulatively. I have no idea if I'm explaining this right I'm not sure my brain has even explained it right to me.
Of these, M24 is dying already to help with that group and we need more gd interactions within that group to solve it better. I actually am just fairly sure Tommy and JALMONT are both town, but I can definitely see a universe where Tommy is maf. So skipper / oden / realiti / hal is the move... but I don't back hal as an option and I literally do not know why it just feels very, very wrong.
Looking back at it now, what isn't lost on me in the least is based on the reading and research I've done in the last couple hours of the thread to make the chart, Eli comes out of it with scumbud equity on that entire group (because remember, a blank cell with oden is actually red because of how oden plays). This is where I make a big case justifying that being true, but I'm tired and have done too much reading, so I don't think I will
skipper
oden
realiti
Basically the most probable breakdown of game positioning right now is there is a wolf in skipper / oden / realiti / hal and possibly two, a wolf that is either Eli or a vibe-wise low content UTR (LS, AG, M24), and a wolf that is secondarily from one of the before groups, or is Tommy / JALMONT / me. But like, cumulatively. I have no idea if I'm explaining this right I'm not sure my brain has even explained it right to me.
Of these, M24 is dying already to help with that group and we need more gd interactions within that group to solve it better. I actually am just fairly sure Tommy and JALMONT are both town, but I can definitely see a universe where Tommy is maf. So skipper / oden / realiti / hal is the move... but I don't back hal as an option and I literally do not know why it just feels very, very wrong.
Looking back at it now, what isn't lost on me in the least is based on the reading and research I've done in the last couple hours of the thread to make the chart, Eli comes out of it with scumbud equity on that entire group (because remember, a blank cell with oden is actually red because of how oden plays). This is where I make a big case justifying that being true, but I'm tired and have done too much reading, so I don't think I will
Actually I'm willing to hedge my bets that LS and JALMONT have just been soft towncoring the whole game and I want in on that towncore. It's that or open wolfing and I'm pretty sure it isn't open wolfing.
Hal is on the fringe of the towncore too he's just on the fringe of everything jc.
Which means that of the foreseeably viable turbo options at EoD, it is literally only Tommy and AG that I think would have close to an above rand shot at hitting maf. And I don't want to vote Tommy because v!Tommy that none of the wolves want to seriously interact with is the best rationale for the game-long threadstate, meaning AG is legitimately the only viable option.
And yeah, looking at that pool, do I think AG is the likeliest to hit red? I mean yeah, probably. Do I think the fact AG has caught a lot of heat since the start of the day that has been salient has contributed to the bad threadstate? Also yeah, probably.
Do I think we should try to look elsewhere for the rest of the day so as to not be stuck up shit's creek without a paddle tomorrow? Yeah, probably.
Hal is on the fringe of the towncore too he's just on the fringe of everything jc.
Which means that of the foreseeably viable turbo options at EoD, it is literally only Tommy and AG that I think would have close to an above rand shot at hitting maf. And I don't want to vote Tommy because v!Tommy that none of the wolves want to seriously interact with is the best rationale for the game-long threadstate, meaning AG is legitimately the only viable option.
And yeah, looking at that pool, do I think AG is the likeliest to hit red? I mean yeah, probably. Do I think the fact AG has caught a lot of heat since the start of the day that has been salient has contributed to the bad threadstate? Also yeah, probably.
Do I think we should try to look elsewhere for the rest of the day so as to not be stuck up shit's creek without a paddle tomorrow? Yeah, probably.
And on reflection targeting skipper today is not at all viable because M24's flip might confirm they were the NK target.
So realiti / oden pick your poison, maybe AG if we don't do anything for the rest of this day phase either but let's not take that route.
So realiti / oden pick your poison, maybe AG if we don't do anything for the rest of this day phase either but let's not take that route.
So regarding two important lines regarding me:
1: low content: I'm working on doing better now that I don't have a negative incentive to care.
2: my role and equity: if I were scum, would I have idled? Just look at the lack of a double kill this coming night and you'll see that I did. So, wait a day at least to decide on me please?
1: low content: I'm working on doing better now that I don't have a negative incentive to care.
2: my role and equity: if I were scum, would I have idled? Just look at the lack of a double kill this coming night and you'll see that I did. So, wait a day at least to decide on me please?
Celever I just can't get to Dusk building us up to use his role and t-1 mins and then woah xdddd just fucked it up haha lolz. it's really unbelievable
it's a horrible look because 1. he could've done it anytime before and WE TOLD HIM TO DO IT 2. if you're leaving it until the last minute then YOU WOULD BE REREADING YOUR POST X10000 TO BE CORRECT and 3. we know he purposefully swapped me to an already existing role - it's unbelievable to think that he last second wanted to change me to poisoner and realiti to redirector. i just don't buy that at all.
no i think we are ok to vote, we only autolose if the mafia is dusk/master oden/AG. although that's a sick thought because if we vote within that, i choose dusk BUT if he's town and the other two are mafia we lose regardless!!! ugh
it's a horrible look because 1. he could've done it anytime before and WE TOLD HIM TO DO IT 2. if you're leaving it until the last minute then YOU WOULD BE REREADING YOUR POST X10000 TO BE CORRECT and 3. we know he purposefully swapped me to an already existing role - it's unbelievable to think that he last second wanted to change me to poisoner and realiti to redirector. i just don't buy that at all.
no i think we are ok to vote, we only autolose if the mafia is dusk/master oden/AG. although that's a sick thought because if we vote within that, i choose dusk BUT if he's town and the other two are mafia we lose regardless!!! ugh
mafia probably has to take a 50/50 regardless so there's strong likelihood they try and go for 2 on 1 bus or possible try and deepwolf a guy and bus both other dudes.
mafia!dusk
It's really hard to get away from this world, see my previous post. Of course what concerns me then is why tf would he purposefully not use his role? that seems to suggest maf is comfortable/likes what they have which really scares me because that then spews one of oden/AG mafia (or worse, both). but then what was the point of building up to using the role? why not just keep his mouth shut? mafia with m24 makes a lot of sense and then they are going for a deep wolf in like celever/ls/nuxl but surely the game is not that easy.
his posts today have been poor
mafia!master oden
I think he reads as town. still a huge problem role - i still don't think we can afford to keep both him and dusk alive as long as dusk still can use his ability to swap mayor onto teammate in mylo situation. doesn't make sense for mafia oden to push AG, that's not really a useful ML.
probably not teammates with AG
mafia!skippergamez
track is whatever, but i suppose it was consistent with day play, even if i didn't like it. presence today has been bad and it bothers me. i think he's probably cleared if m24 flips town since it means the mafia really tried to kill him (makes sense, tracker is v dangerous)
mafia!AG
I think he reads as town. i dont think teammates with oden w-hich is good, since it's pretty much gg if town. there's no way oden goes after AG so hard especially near deadline with how strong AG's role is.
mafia!nuxl
there's worlds in which he's deepwolf and leading us to our deaths but i don't think it makes sense to entertain that right now. even if he's mafia, we need to get his teammates first anyways. not even worth thinking about
mafia!m24
his result claim was so bad I have no idea why as a mafia he would even claim something like that...which inevitably means he's gonna flip town right? lol. wouldn't you just lie and say literally anyone but psy? and then just push a 50/50 if someone counterclaims? did m24 team really think they could live this and honestly claimed his result?
it just makes way more sense that they used m24's ability to kill psy and then just hope for the best being honest. idk. i dont wanna think about him anymore. presence today also been poor
mafia!ls
i don't really have a strong read. not really set up to deepwolf too well but i guess she wasn't on HH so...at this point in the game she's going to be alive for a while so no point in considering right now.
mafia!realiti
I find it really interesting that LS targeted realiti and realiti didn't claim that result. very bizarre. does that suggest bus driver was actually on realiti? no one else has claimed fruit vended so i'm guessing just an oversight but i suppose it does open up the mafia bus driving two of their own. i'm not sure what the point of that would be though so.
otherwise i have a town read. mafia!m24 clears realiti 99% of the town. a town!m24 is just really bad for us and puts realiti more into question.
mafia!celever
i have a town read on celever, the only way i see mafia celever is if he's deepwolfing and trying to pocket me so if I die he's probably town. the read on me kinda came out of nowhere. nevertheless i don't see us voting here today.
mafia!apricity
same boat as LS, we can't really afford to vote him. tracker cleared him which actually i think suggests the kill was by someone heavily pressured. could possibly be playing to deep infiltrate town? seems unlikely though.
fk im running out of brainpower lol.
mafia!dusk
It's really hard to get away from this world, see my previous post. Of course what concerns me then is why tf would he purposefully not use his role? that seems to suggest maf is comfortable/likes what they have which really scares me because that then spews one of oden/AG mafia (or worse, both). but then what was the point of building up to using the role? why not just keep his mouth shut? mafia with m24 makes a lot of sense and then they are going for a deep wolf in like celever/ls/nuxl but surely the game is not that easy.
his posts today have been poor
mafia!master oden
I think he reads as town. still a huge problem role - i still don't think we can afford to keep both him and dusk alive as long as dusk still can use his ability to swap mayor onto teammate in mylo situation. doesn't make sense for mafia oden to push AG, that's not really a useful ML.
probably not teammates with AG
mafia!skippergamez
track is whatever, but i suppose it was consistent with day play, even if i didn't like it. presence today has been bad and it bothers me. i think he's probably cleared if m24 flips town since it means the mafia really tried to kill him (makes sense, tracker is v dangerous)
mafia!AG
I think he reads as town. i dont think teammates with oden w-hich is good, since it's pretty much gg if town. there's no way oden goes after AG so hard especially near deadline with how strong AG's role is.
mafia!nuxl
there's worlds in which he's deepwolf and leading us to our deaths but i don't think it makes sense to entertain that right now. even if he's mafia, we need to get his teammates first anyways. not even worth thinking about
mafia!m24
his result claim was so bad I have no idea why as a mafia he would even claim something like that...which inevitably means he's gonna flip town right? lol. wouldn't you just lie and say literally anyone but psy? and then just push a 50/50 if someone counterclaims? did m24 team really think they could live this and honestly claimed his result?
it just makes way more sense that they used m24's ability to kill psy and then just hope for the best being honest. idk. i dont wanna think about him anymore. presence today also been poor
mafia!ls
i don't really have a strong read. not really set up to deepwolf too well but i guess she wasn't on HH so...at this point in the game she's going to be alive for a while so no point in considering right now.
mafia!realiti
I find it really interesting that LS targeted realiti and realiti didn't claim that result. very bizarre. does that suggest bus driver was actually on realiti? no one else has claimed fruit vended so i'm guessing just an oversight but i suppose it does open up the mafia bus driving two of their own. i'm not sure what the point of that would be though so.
otherwise i have a town read. mafia!m24 clears realiti 99% of the town. a town!m24 is just really bad for us and puts realiti more into question.
mafia!celever
i have a town read on celever, the only way i see mafia celever is if he's deepwolfing and trying to pocket me so if I die he's probably town. the read on me kinda came out of nowhere. nevertheless i don't see us voting here today.
mafia!apricity
same boat as LS, we can't really afford to vote him. tracker cleared him which actually i think suggests the kill was by someone heavily pressured. could possibly be playing to deep infiltrate town? seems unlikely though.
fk im running out of brainpower lol.
skipper I guess tracks whoever. Probably should've tracked AG last night. Sigh.
how does prio work again? can m24 bus drive before dying. I think AG should target me but if the bus driver can drive, it's not worth the risk and he should idle.
we should specific ONE target that m24 will bus drive and have LS fruit vend that target? or is it not worth it due to impending death...I think we should pick the role because then we'll get info on who mafia targeted with the driver.
welp we've got no roles haha
how does prio work again? can m24 bus drive before dying. I think AG should target me but if the bus driver can drive, it's not worth the risk and he should idle.
we should specific ONE target that m24 will bus drive and have LS fruit vend that target? or is it not worth it due to impending death...I think we should pick the role because then we'll get info on who mafia targeted with the driver.
welp we've got no roles haha
TBF when you put it that way it's pretty incredulous lol. Not least because you make far more sense as a redirector than a poisoner, between the two.
The Tommy / oden / AG scumteam is spoken into being plausible because of Tommy screwing up the action usage. It's still for me the only universe where that's a particularly rational move as wolf, hedging their bets that they can all get through the day with some kind of turbo. Especially because between them they both just have such strange interaction, particularly the two of them with oden where Tommy early D1 basically took a vow not to interact with oden in-thread and then AG and oden have had more interaction with each other than either have had with any other single slot in the game. Not a bad place for me right now considering oden / AG / realiti is my PoE so it just informs order a little more, and if Tommy gets voted it is what it is I guess but I still do think he's just town.
tbf this has made me think about the fact the vote was on skipper a little harder and might be the golden bullet. AG is the obvious tracker target because if he is wolf and uses it N1 he outs his buddy, so he either actually did idle just to be on the safe side but they wanted to take out Skipper just in case, or he just used his abil and they killed Skipper figuring it would work out. Unhelpfully, it doesn't really help us solve, the former is just what happened if M24 is town and the latter is just what happened if M24 is wolf, assuming AG is wolf himself. So this is basically just pondering lmao.
(IIRC) it's confirmed that kill delayer can delay the death of someone who has been poisoned if used on the night after they were targeted. As kill delayer should be redirectable / bus driverable, M24's death is a lower prio than their action usage.
legit probably one of the most useful things we could do with those two roles lol. Probably only if motivator is dead?
Yeah I could see this being the plan. With us being strict about it i.e. Tommy has until an hour before deadline to use the abil and if he doesn't he just gets turboed at that point in time.
Yeah I mean how do I get away from this? I wanna just be like fuck it and call it gg if AG is mafia and assume he isn't because otherwise I don't see how I can get away from this vote. the game is simply not winnable with the mafia being able to double kill more than once, which they will be able to do regardless if AG/the role lives today
old man venting alert but like wtf was everyone thinking, we have a role which doubles the mafia night kill and we're going to go ahead and vote out the redirector who is NOT HERE and CAN'T HURT TOWN AS MAFIA. like my god how does that make any sense and of course we didn't track him either so we have no way of knowing ugh vent over
The problem I have with the oden/AG/dusk scumteam is I think it's too risky to leave two votes on AG and risk everyone piling on that vote. On day 1 at least you have to sell out to keep your motivator alive. I dunno, I guess reading your post, I have a horrible feeling that maybe we really just did get extraordinarily unlucky and our town bus driver somehow picked the only target set that leads to our JK dying. surely it's not possible
In retrospect we should have listened to JALMONT on D1 more 
EoD wagons were on the redirector and bus driver, two of the roles which nerf the information advantage mafia have by knowing not only everyone's alignment but being able to coordinate their abil usage privately instead of in-thread. If M24 and Hydro are both town then we decided between 2 relatively LHF but useful-almost-no-matter-what slots lol.
Granted one of the few exceptions to useful-no-matter-what was redirecting the kill from the tracker to the jailkeeper but hey.
With that said I think Tommy / AG / oden is something we need to bear in mind but yeah it's far from the only possibility. I'd say Eli / realiti / oden for example is just as viable a scumteam (was gonna say Eli / realiti / M24 to get the full scumpool represented but actually it really isn't a viable scumteam lol).
EoD wagons were on the redirector and bus driver, two of the roles which nerf the information advantage mafia have by knowing not only everyone's alignment but being able to coordinate their abil usage privately instead of in-thread. If M24 and Hydro are both town then we decided between 2 relatively LHF but useful-almost-no-matter-what slots lol.
Granted one of the few exceptions to useful-no-matter-what was redirecting the kill from the tracker to the jailkeeper but hey.
I think this is fair, and is what happened to Hydro after all, but it's worth noting that Tommy and AG were both at EoD so they had reasonable control and sway of the situation. Both are traditionally active vote jumpers around EoD so it's kind of in-character for them to pull off a preservation move. Really the game makes more sense if all 4 of them (M24 oden AG Tommy) are wolves fml.
With that said I think Tommy / AG / oden is something we need to bear in mind but yeah it's far from the only possibility. I'd say Eli / realiti / oden for example is just as viable a scumteam (was gonna say Eli / realiti / M24 to get the full scumpool represented but actually it really isn't a viable scumteam lol).
Oh also realiti did claim the result but only a while after the fact. Is confirmed that realiti received the fruit though
here ^
Look at the context of this:
^^^^^^^^^^ I typed that up before seeing Celever call out that realiti did claim but after the fact. Didn't want to waste the effort I made with the multiquote thing.
__________________________
Given oden's role, swapping to steal it could still happen. If M24 isn't scum, then it was double town vote, and there likely was no point to forcing the issue at that time.