NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)

UncleSam said:
Ngl I don’t really think your groupings are right though the general ID of there being two factions seems spot on.

Fmpov the groups are
- me, Realiti, Hydro, Neon
- A Fairy, Celever, Pulsar

The rest sort of neutral

I’m not super sure where you’re getting Neon being in your group and I for sure do not agree with Blazade being in your group. For what it’s worth I’m totally down for a skipper or zippy vote today if someone can make a case for it being better than Rostam.

In other words while I agree with your overarching premise and I think it’s a good thing that you raised this dichotomy, I disagree with your classifications pretty strongly. Interested to see what others think though.

Finally, I’m actually not convinced at all that scum are more likely to be in these groups than in the neutrals (as evidenced by the fact that most of my top vote candidates for today are not in these groups, which as Realiti points out is a point of cognitive dissonance for you currently). Obviously I do think that you / Fairy / Pulsar is a viable scum team but if I had to guess which of that vs. most of the neutrals being bad was more likely I’d say the neutrals. It’s just in the best interest of scum to avoid taking hard risky positions in the early going in most cases.
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As for everything else I might be inclined to agree with this take if you’re town and using your groupings, that scum are more common within the neutrals, though I also think realiti is the cornerstone of the first group and there’s every chance you’re kinda just wrong. Hydro / realiti, for instance, is a scumteam core I can’t shake the feeling of being the solve.

I do agree it’s optimal for scum teams to try and ride the middle early on, though I also think the presence of the indie throws that off since riding the middle commonly gets you shot early on. I’d also stress that I think the likeliest scenario is scumteam pair + neutral which is distinct from your read that maybe your bottom group might just all 3 be the scumteam.

But yeah, now that you’ve said this I think shooting neutrals is probably optimal regardless because in either universe it’s better to thin neutrals and find a/the hit than mill the wrong group and auto lose lol. A hit is the main thing that helps parse the dichotomy
 
UncleSam said:
Can you post a better reason to vote someone else? Rostam still seems like the best vote to me but like I said I’m open to a number of alternatives.
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I guess I’m still confused, I don’t see how they were defensive today and I’m confused about the martyr-Rostam connection and they had good d1 posting so
 
skippergamez said:
AG has two scummetas

1. Quiet and avoids conversation
2. Knows that his townmeta is Village Leader and uses that

I feel like he’s in between, maybe that just means he’s town
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I guess I can agree with that. I have a different but similar read.

Seems you are town, which means pulsar is almost certainly scum. Do you think the 2 wagons just didn't go through? lol, scum always want to push a wagon through day 1. Especially with a werewolf in the game, that role needs to get as many kills going as possible.

This spews one of those wagons scum, as in you or pulsar.
 
ZippyDoo200 said:
Wasn't Celever really buddying up to Ehmcee calling him vigilante?

Could be misremembering things. Seems odd to treat Ehmcee like that but still have him as null here now.


I am not interested in burying Celever here though. Celever you think pulsar is town, why? Just case that roight quick. I am interested in comparing her to past scum performances.
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Anyway the short of it is pulsar has gone through progress in her aptitude at playing mafia. Initially she sheeped her buddy hard, and she’s progressed from there toward being better and better at accruing towncred and getting people on her side. She is very good at feigning solving, and is better at feigning solving than actually solving historically (sorry).

I basically think the technically incompetent posts so far heavily imply she doesn’t have the solve already. She’s barely actually played as town so far and so she doesn’t have the practice and skillset to be good at it. She could be 3p based on this, but I also think she would understand the importance of self-pres as an indie and so far she has made moves that are directly poor for her self-pres.

Also I have a good hit rate scumreading her based on vibes and her vibes don’t feel scum to me what can I say
 
Celever said:
As for everything else I might be inclined to agree with this take if you’re town and using your groupings, that scum are more common within the neutrals, though I also think realiti is the cornerstone of the first group and there’s every chance you’re kinda just wrong. Hydro / realiti, for instance, is a scumteam core I can’t shake the feeling of being the solve.

I do agree it’s optimal for scum teams to try and ride the middle early on, though I also think the presence of the indie throws that off since riding the middle commonly gets you shot early on. I’d also stress that I think the likeliest scenario is scumteam pair + neutral which is distinct from your read that maybe your bottom group might just all 3 be the scumteam.

But yeah, now that you’ve said this I think shooting neutrals is probably optimal regardless because in either universe it’s better to thin neutrals and find a/the hit than mill the wrong group and auto lose lol. A hit is the main thing that helps parse the dichotomy
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I mostly agree with your takeaway although with an important caveat: I wanna force the neutrals to take a stand by tomorrow. I think someone in the neutral group is the best vote option today but by Day 3 people should have hard stances and reads they’re willing to debate and defend. I think we should focus early day 3 on getting the neutrals to post more about their towncores and who they trust / distrust the most. It doesn’t have to be a hard dichotomy and I’m keeping an open mind moving forward, just it’s a good way to think of it for right now imo.

Regardless I still think Rostam is the vote here. It’s close enough to deadline I think people should either make a firm plan of when to vote or just do it.
 
ZippyDoo200 said:
I guess I can agree with that. I have a different but similar read.

Seems you are town, which means pulsar is almost certainly scum. Do you think the 2 wagons just didn't go through? lol, scum always want to push a wagon through day 1. Especially with a werewolf in the game, that role needs to get as many kills going as possible.

This spews one of those wagons scum, as in you or pulsar.
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I disagree btw, I think scum are more incentivised to tie up a vote on D1 if it’s T/T because it deprives the town of info going into D2 and will usually result in the wagons being continued to be pushed.

But I also think it’s irrelevant because of the vote weight roles that, unless those roles are scum, couldn’t have resulted in intentionally tying the wagons
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
#646
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So I interpreted the fact that you used your announcer to unvote me then never brought up a scum read on me again as evidence that you no longer had that read.

Did you mention it again during D2 anywhere / do you still have that same read on me? Also since you’re near the top of my town list can you give some more insight on your preferences for the vote today? In particular Rostam vs Pulsar and the dichotomy that Celever raised.
 
ik mod and all that so i shouldnt talk abt the viewing list but it validated logged out so

does anyone else see a 0 post 2011 jd user viewing this thread? what a wild person. has someone really been on smogon for 12 years and never once posted
 
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