NOC Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Mafia - Explorers - Game Thread (Game Over!)

StupidFlandrs48 said:
GP = Grammar checking for Smogon analyses, I really enjoy doing it

I think the towncred hunting is scummy in a vacuum, but I have seen M2H comment that you usually TR them very quickly as town. My scumlean comes from disregarding that and just viewing their actions in a vacuum.

I think M2H is more likely to be scum atm but the prevailing sentiment I have is that you can't both be town based on your interactions so far. Can't extrapolate much more than that atp
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i think there has to be some sort of elaboration on the last bit though, what exactly makes it impossible for us both to be town, if you think at least one of us is town?

if you can believe id react to m2h as town like i did if they are scum

or if you think m2h would react to me as town, like they did if i was scum

then, given the reaction would be based on an uninformed player that is town, why couldnt we simultaneously both be reacting, as town? what changes here if one of us is scum, to both of us being town?
 
Clouds said:
to be honest all the sudden scumreads on laurel are giving me cold feet about my townread on him but

still not a vote i'm keen on, can you help me see what you're seeing? is it intertwined with his flavor claim thing seeming like it's for show or something? i do think it's ridiculous that he actually thought kecleon would be clearing for himself so i have trouble rationing with his thought there, but i'm not sure his play so far strikes me as scummy per se. that said, he did try to make a big impression early, which is... kinda atypical for him
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I can't speak for them but my reasoning for SRing Laurel is the mere idea that they wanted a flavorclaim when they thought it'd reveal info, that process feels like it obviously benefits scum more than town rn because of the info involved. This of course assumes that their confusion about the setup was genuine but I have no problem with accepting that.
 
Clouds said:
to be honest all the sudden scumreads on laurel are giving me cold feet about my townread on him but

still not a vote i'm keen on, can you help me see what you're seeing? is it intertwined with his flavor claim thing seeming like it's for show or something? i do think it's ridiculous that he actually thought kecleon would be clearing for himself so i have trouble rationing with his thought there, but i'm not sure his play so far strikes me as scummy per se. that said, he did try to make a big impression early, which is... kinda atypical for him
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i just think laurel, gets way more involved as mafia and i think hes definitely tried pull a sneaky move like this as mafia before (i cant remember exact quotes but i store these memories because im watching mafia chat most games), it just rings as something he would certainly do as mafia, but be unliekly to do as town to me, given how ive seen him play as both alignments
 
Duskfall98 said:
i think there has to be some sort of elaboration on the last bit though, what exactly makes it impossible for us both to be town, if you think at least one of us is town?

if you can believe id react to m2h as town like i did if they are scum

or if you think m2h would react to me as town, like they did if i was scum

then, given the reaction would be based on an uninformed player that is town, why couldnt we simultaneously both be reacting, as town? what changes here if one of us is scum, to both of us being town?
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I don't understand what you're asking here.
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
I can't speak for them but my reasoning for SRing Laurel is the mere idea that they wanted a flavorclaim when they thought it'd reveal info, that process feels like it obviously benefits scum more than town rn because of the info involved. This of course assumes that their confusion about the setup was genuine but I have no problem with accepting that.
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so you think they might've had setup confusion but are still mafia despite that? meaning they truly didn't understand that mafia didn't have fakeclaims despite being mafia, just due to recklessness or not paying attention?

i feel like that's... not the case tbh. thinking he's either town that genuinely didn't read the fakeclaim thing, or mafia that's pulling an act to try and seem oblivious and get cleared off of that. i don't see him not realizing mafia had fakeclaims if he's in the mafia to begin with, that'd be so lame
 
Clouds said:
so you think they might've had setup confusion but are still mafia despite that? meaning they truly didn't understand that mafia didn't have fakeclaims despite being mafia, just due to recklessness or not paying attention?

i feel like that's... not the case tbh. thinking he's either town that genuinely didn't read the fakeclaim thing, or mafia that's pulling an act to try and seem oblivious and get cleared off of that. i don't see him not realizing mafia had fakeclaims if he's in the mafia to begin with, that'd be so lame
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I have absolutely no prior information about Laurel's habits or competence, so I have no issue with believing he's as incompetent as my theory suggests until proven otherwise.
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
I don't understand what you're asking here.
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1) if m2h is scum, you think what i posted can be towny

2) if i am scum, you think what m2h posted can be towny

(this is the nature of tvs)

if both of these are true, and both set of posts can be towny, a town player reacted uninformed to someone else, what is stopping both of them from being just that, uninformed player reacting to someone else posting, youre kind of making a leap to "it has to be at least one mafia", but until you can connect a line to why its not tvt, then it feels like youre pulling it out of the air because you think its easy to label a fight as tvs (which it is, but that doesnt make it right)
 
Duskfall98 said:
1) if m2h is scum, you think what i posted can be towny

2) if i am scum, you think what m2h posted can be towny

(this is the nature of tvs)

if both of these are true, and both set of posts can be towny, a town player reacted uninformed to someone else, what is stopping both of them from being just that, uninformed player reacting to someone else posting, youre kind of making a leap to "it has to be at least one mafia", but until you can connect a line to why its not tvt, then it feels like youre pulling it out of the air because you think its easy to label a fight as tvs (which it is, but that doesnt make it right)
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Yes I think both of these, and you may have a point about it. When I see a fight I tend to assume both are different factions. However I mentioned earlier that this could also be S/S equity, not T/S, and I'm just leaning towards T/S at present. I still think you MAYBE could both be scum trying to cover for each other by very publicly fighting in the thread. However I don't think your theory holds up because you're not uninformed about each other at all, you both have information to work with (however outdated) and that shows through in your conversations. Thus I doubt you'd be acting like this if you're both town
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
Yes I think both of these, and you may have a point about it. When I see a fight I tend to assume both are different factions. However I mentioned earlier that this could also be S/S equity, not T/S, and I'm just leaning towards T/S at present. I still think you MAYBE could both be scum trying to cover for each other by very publicly fighting in the thread. However I don't think your theory holds up because you're not uninformed about each other at all, you both have information to work with (however outdated) and that shows through in your conversations. Thus I doubt you'd be acting like this if you're both town
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do you not see, how youre saying we wouldnt both act like this as town, but exactly one of us might be is odd? i do think your logic is contradicting itself here

do you just think we are both scummy then?
 
SB. said:
Day 1.5 Votals
(3) genisu: saberslasher11, StupidFlandrs48, pulsar512b
(1) joey: Laurel
(1) ImaginaryNeon: ImaginaryNeon
(1) Duskfall98: M2H
(1) Clouds: Shane the Shroomish
(1) Celever: JALMONT
(1) Laurel: Duskfall98

Voteless: a fairy, Alice Kazumi, bluedoom, Celever, Clouds, genisu, HydrogenHydreigon, joey

You have 24 hours until phase end. With 17 alive, it takes 11 to hammer early.
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Vote Laurel

best option of the current wagons imo
 
Duskfall98 said:
do you not see, how youre saying we wouldnt both act like this as town, but exactly one of us might be is odd? i do think your logic is contradicting itself here

do you just think we are both scummy then?
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I said both of you being scummy is a real possibility, yes. Maybe my mech is just terrible and that's the idea I should be pushing since it's more realistic

Duskfall98 said:
also how is fighting in thread covering for each other?
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That's... literally what scum distancing is? Isn't it? Am I missing something here?
 
Duskfall98 said:
i just think laurel, gets way more involved as mafia and i think hes definitely tried pull a sneaky move like this as mafia before (i cant remember exact quotes but i store these memories because im watching mafia chat most games), it just rings as something he would certainly do as mafia, but be unliekly to do as town to me, given how ive seen him play as both alignments
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I disagree with all the logic in this post though

Laurel used to participate way more as mafia when he hadn’t rolled mafia in way too many games and then started doing so, but at this point (esp with taking multi-game breaks between playing) I think he just has higher WIM every game he plays.

In Assist Trophy he was mafia and his WIM wasn’t that high.

Assist Trophy is actually the counterargument to a lot of arguments being used against him
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
I said both of you being scummy is a real possibility, yes. Maybe my mech is just terrible and that's the idea I should be pushing since it's more realistic


That's... literally what scum distancing is? Isn't it? Am I missing something here?
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calling something tvs, imo at least is a very different dynamic than just saying two people are scummy, in this situation i think calling both me and m2h scummy is much more justifiable than calling us tvs, its also way more convenient for mafia to call an interaction tvs than to commit to two people as scumreads, because after they flip one town its a way to distance from the read and just go for the other, if you call both scummy you are owning up to it in a much more real way, along with the fact it makes much more sense in this situation

i would say distancing is the opposite of covering
 
Duskfall98 said:
calling something tvs, imo at least is a very different dynamic than just saying two people are scummy, in this situation i think calling both me and m2h scummy is much more justifiable than calling us tvs, its also way more convenient for mafia to call an interaction tvs than to commit to two people as scumreads, because after they flip one town its a way to distance from the read and just go for the other, if you call both scummy you are owning up to it in a much more real way, along with the fact it makes much more sense in this situation

i would say distancing is the opposite of covering
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Now I just feel lost

Starting to somewhat townlean celever tho
 
Duskfall98 said:
i feel like its way too early into day 1 for you to be trying to consolidate wagons

who are your general scumreads then?
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It’s halfway through D1. Making votes matter is a good thing.

No one really. I still am not vibing with bluedoom and he might be up there but it’s not for outright scummy reasons more than it’s for abject disagreement reasons so I’m not heroing that.
 
Wait a minute Celever I just iso'd you and saw that you thought Bluedoom was acting more sus in the convo with Clouds last night than Clouds was... but your main reason was that they went too hard into Shane? But then today you've been expressing concerns about Shane with regards to scum/scum equity with Laurel, a.k.a. the person you're voting right now?
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
Wait a minute Celever I just iso'd you and saw that you thought Bluedoom was acting more sus in the convo with Clouds last night than Clouds was... but your main reason was that they went too hard into Shane? But then today you've been expressing concerns about Shane with regards to scum/scum equity with Laurel, a.k.a. the person you're voting right now?
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Two separate lines of thought, yeah. Based on more macro thread dynamics Shane should be town, but the specific convo M2H made me look at is a S/S Shane and Laurel sitch for sure. Both running theories don’t have to be right at the same time though, and Laurel is scummy independently of that.
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
Now I just feel lost

Starting to somewhat townlean celever tho
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calling a dynamic tvs, is something mafia do as a strategy to push people, while disassociating from the read, it allows them to flip a player as town then say "oh well i only thought one was mafia", then flip the other, basically allowing for 2 relatively "easy" misvotes

town players also do it, but thats why to me its important to see where the read comes from, to verify if its genuine or a strategy
 
The things that make Shane town include way too many players to satisfactorily solve within today imo and I won’t pretend to remember all stakeholders anyway
 
Duskfall98 said:
calling a dynamic tvs, is something mafia do as a strategy to push people, while disassociating from the read, it allows them to flip a player as town then say "oh well i only thought one was mafia", then flip the other, basically allowing for 2 relatively "easy" misvotes

town players also do it, but thats why to me its important to see where the read comes from, to verify if its genuine or a strategy
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Alright cool. This reads like genuine advice instead of a subtle scumpush on me so thx. I do believe tvs is still possible tho, not dropping that
 
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