NOC Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Mafia - Explorers - Game Thread (Game Over!)

The other thing is the D2 narrative.

Coming into D2 I was pretty sure that Celever was mafia because of how the wagons panned out. The pulsar vote felt like people were trying to avoid voting celever out. But what had me going ??? is that D2 thread narrative has been that one of Shane/Celever has to be mafia which feels like a scum narrative to push 2 mls; no one has even talked about why they think Shane is scummy, just that he's in a PoE, and as for Celever, I think the only one stating some sort of scumread reason for him is af???

It doesn't help that we've spent most of this phase with shitty rolespec instead of talking about the EoD1 and I feel like I'm the only one going insane about it in a sea of people talking about roles lol.
 
bluedoom said:
I'm thinking focusing on LD1 narrative is important here, because I'm really not understanding what happened.

Votals 1.7 shows the wagons at 4/2/2/2 with genisu at 4 and pulsar/laurel/dusk at 2(hyhy voting dusk here)

Shane and M2H are voting pulsar, Celever and Dusk are voting laurel.
This is the game state where celever goes all in to the oligarchy theory which brings more spotlight on him. At first I thought this was a reaction to clouds+me voting him but then clouds unvoted and voted Alice. Regardless, this is how Jalmont gets wagoned and the first votes on Jalmont are Celever/Shane/af. So by votals 1.8 we have Jalmont/genisu at 3/4.


By votals 1.9 Jalmont is the leading wagon at 6 votes with Flanders, M2H and Alice being the new votes. Atp I switch to pulsar because I think Jalmont's a bad lynch and no one wanted to vote Celever with me. Important to note that I offered a cfd to laurel instead of pulsar but there were no takers, and M2H specifically defended laurel as possible lynchbait. By votals 1.10 genisu's wagon is at 2 and pure(saber and pulsar) while joey is being pushed as a wagon with laurel and M2H voting him. Pulsar wagon has me/shane/genisu

There are a few bounces in votes but by Votals 1.13 votes have shifted; clouds initially went on joey but then shifted to celever, shane votes celever alongside clouds and duskfall joins the wagon on pulsar. Votes are still 4/3 Jalmont/pulsar with Jalmont's wagon having the same people. 1.15 is where pulsar/jalmont is tied; and shane and joey are voting pulsar here. Fwiw, I do think for whoever thinks Jalmont is mafia, Shane makes no sense as his buddy becuase he keeps flipping between Celever and pulsar as the counterwagons. This makes no sense as mafia trying to save scum!Jalmont.

I think this is the point where Jalmont claims vig anyway. And then there's the scramble for a cfd; things to note are that af is on pulsar and hyhy is on celever but I don't remember them saying anything about these players on D1. af's justification for not voting celever was "voting him for his oligarchy theory was bad" but she thinks celever is scummy today for argument style so ??? Idek why Hyhy voted Celever here. Hyhy, elaborate?


I think if Jalmont vs pulsar is t/t then there's a big implication that there are mafia in voteparkers like alice/laurel/neon tbh. Not all 3, but I wouldn't be surprised if 2/3 were mafia.
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This is a point, but I'm not sure I buy it. I've been reading the thread purely through Shane's lens and Shane/Clouds interactions d1 honestly are kinda bad. If we presume a Shane/Clouds/JALMONT world, Shane and Clouds already know that JALMONT is going to claim vig which will dissolve the JALMONT wagon. In this case, Shane & Clouds sitting on Celever is a noncommittal move that posits Celever as a potential counterwagon to pulsar when the JALMONT wagon dissolves. This could make sense in that it reduces certainty somewhat regarding where the votes go after the JALMONT wagon goes away as Celever and Pulsar are already established wagons with very little time to coalesce on somebody else.

Ftr looking at Shane d1 interactions the following are notable:

Shane Interactions:
  • Flanders: Shane town read Flanders very hard very fast and still maintains this tmk? Clouds even shaded this to some degree when he voted Flanders saying "idc Shane idc." To be clear, I townleaned Flanders as well; however, I don't think I've seen much critical thinking at all from Shane on this one. The only time I remember an explanation is when Shane quoted two random posts about Flanders meming with flavor somewhat and kinda just assumed he is town from there. Not sure what to make of this one, though we do see Flanders favoring Celever in the Shane/Celever conflict later on. I didn't really see Shane engage Flanders at all on this, which seems strange for one's top TR's.
  • Neon: Seemed to agree with me on Neon being town if he copies town roles even saying he would never vote that on role if confirmed, but disagreed on HH being similarly clear on role. To be clear Shane the Shroomish, do you still town core Neon for that? Why is backup a good enough reason to clear somebody, but a revealed mayor is not. The resistance on setup spec from others such as Celever read as a more principled stance against absolutism than yours, to my eyes.
  • Laurel: Early d1 interactions were pretty strange. Shane contends that Laurel's schtick is "so fake", and they banter a bit. Shane contends that they "are a team" in a somewhat performative way before putting Laurel as the top scum read but nothing egregious. Later seems to retroactively say that Laurel seemed genuine and afaik he's townleaned him since?
  • Clouds: Interactions between the two feel overly sterile, with Shane meekly pushing Clouds at points and Clouds being like "that just makes me town read you more," both end up on Celever at eod d2, and Clouds seems to have downgraded Shane from a town read to simply "not scum with Celever" on d2. This somewhat reads as theatre -> distancing to some degree.
  • Alice: Not terribly much to say except that Alice has frequently placed Shane as potential scum but never really pushed it. AFAIK the active scum player has gone from in me/Shane -> me/Shane/Tommy/ and celev somewhat reluctantly -> me/bluedoom/Celever/Dusk/Shane. Shane asked for explanation on the votes and idr anything beyond that. Notably, Clouds and JALMONT get excluded from the active players list.
  • a fairy: early game Shane was a bit flippy on a fairy, originally saying a fairy seemed to be defending neon in an unwarranted and gimmicky way before walking it back and saying a fairy seemed genuine. Afterwards, Shane suggests that a fairy / genisu is not tvt for little apparent reason outside of them not seeming aligned. Afterwards a fairy's read on shane jumps around a bit from liking their solving in her wallpost to expressing a null read. Overall I see a lot of buddying between these slots but very little in terms of firm reads on each other.
  • JALMONT: Positioned Shane in the middle of the experienced players category without any particular reasoning, Shane shaded both JALMONT and the JALMONT wagon early on saying that Celever's points about JALMONT are "absurd" and JALMONT's reads are "kinda whatever", later takes a somewhat hedgy position at eod before ending up on Celever as a counterwagon following JALMONT's wagon dissolving.
 
watching M2H's paranoia around my slot when i'm claimed town cop is so amusing

to answer your Neon question, i just don't feel like i townread him off of his own content and it was more linked to how others were treating his slot. after thinking about it more, i realized that's flawed logic and that mafia would help bury his slot in towncore if they had the opportunity to
 
Clouds said:
watching M2H's paranoia around my slot when i'm claimed town cop is so amusing

to answer your Neon question, i just don't feel like i townread him off of his own content and it was more linked to how others were treating his slot. after thinking about it more, i realized that's flawed logic and that mafia would help bury his slot in towncore if they had the opportunity to
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you're also claimed town cop with a vest, so that does position you to not die while also having quite a bit of authority. its natural to be suspicious in such a position. its also the case that id really rather not assume that the mafia is just 4 lowposters, or sans that 3 lowposters + one of celev/shane. taken together with your eod behavior, your attitude that me/shane pushing you at times -> townier twigs me out. its also the case that you have what seems to be the firmest tr on me in the room besides maybe bluedoom. idk where his head is at anymore. but yeah if paranoia, i feel like its probably justified at this point.
 
M2H said:
you're also claimed town cop with a vest, so that does position you to not die while also having quite a bit of authority. its natural to be suspicious in such a position. its also the case that id really rather not assume that the mafia is just 4 lowposters, or sans that 3 lowposters + one of celev/shane. taken together with your eod behavior, your attitude that me/shane pushing you at times -> townier twigs me out. its also the case that you have what seems to be the firmest tr on me in the room besides maybe bluedoom. idk where his head is at anymore. but yeah if paranoia, i feel like its probably justified at this point.
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yes none of that is unfair, just think you're making it more difficult for yourself by trying to rationalize worlds where i'm mafia
 
i'm trying to decide if celever can be this off the mark or if he's just stretching the rubber band as far as possible before it breaks and he's outed

in any case i agree with bluedoom that we should be voting some vote parkers, because i'm under the impression jalmont vs pulsar was tvt right now. if it's not it's not, it'd help to know exactly what jalmont did last night but ay... i'm fine with an alice wagon for now
 
M2H i stated it earlier, but shane and neon have partner equity due to how shane handled neon's slot and feathered along the senitment that he was townspewed, so that's kinda my thoughts regarding those two re: your wallpost. also agree that shane townread flanders far too fast, but i've made my stance on that clear. that's one of the reads i have the hardest time seeing as authentic from shane, because i don't understand how he saw what he claims to see. noticed what you're saying about shane's early comment about laurel's shtick being fake too, in fact that post has always bothered me a bit because it's in the same vein as flanders' exaggerated scumread on genisu where i have a hard time believing that he believes it and it isn't all smoke and mirrors. the reason flanders sticks out like a sore thumb to me here is because it feels like they just do not care about who winds up getting voted, you'd think they'd just be tunneling genisu right now if they believed it as much as they said earlier you know...
 
M2H I kinda understand your idea of Shane/Clouds/Jalmont but then there's the whole clouds interaction with tommy/laurel. and I guess you'd have to solve for me/genisu in that world from your perspective. Then there's the fact that town vig and cop are not in this game which is...eh. Would probably have a better idea of the setup with a full massclaim but that's not happening today.

As for my read on you, tbh I still townread you but D2 has been frustrating and it feels like you were too caught up in mech solving to really do anything on wagonomics or reads in general. I think that post in this page was the first time you went away from mech solving this phase which is refreshing. I suppose you have scum equity with laurel but I don't want to tinfoil that when laurel's slot in general has a lot of scum equity unrelated to you anyway. I do think that the list where you post about Shane's interactions D1 is very helpful though.
 
bluedoom said:
M2H I kinda understand your idea of Shane/Clouds/Jalmont but then there's the whole clouds interaction with tommy/laurel. and I guess you'd have to solve for me/genisu in that world from your perspective. Then there's the fact that town vig and cop are not in this game which is...eh. Would probably have a better idea of the setup with a full massclaim but that's not happening today.

As for my read on you, tbh I still townread you but D2 has been frustrating and it feels like you were too caught up in mech solving to really do anything on wagonomics or reads in general. I think that post in this page was the first time you went away from mech solving this phase which is refreshing. I suppose you have scum equity with laurel but I don't want to tinfoil that when laurel's slot in general has a lot of scum equity unrelated to you anyway. I do think that the list where you post about Shane's interactions D1 is very helpful though.
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Tbh I kinda just read tommy town here. In my tinfoil universe he is just getting carried along for a ride just like I am. Laurel I think is definitely a possible/likely fourth. Not sure what you mean by solving you/genisu.
 
M2H said:
Tbh I kinda just read tommy town here. In my tinfoil universe he is just getting carried along for a ride just like I am. Laurel I think is definitely a possible/likely fourth. Not sure what you mean by solving you/genisu.
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as in, I think from a town!you perspective genisu/me have scum equity with that team if laurel/tommy aren't the scum buddies
 
It's also worth noting that further claims would help me avoid blocking something vital & with me and tommy being likely nks off of being a literal green check and me having a good bit of town equity and being able to get guilty results with my rb, i dont really see the possibility of other claims baiting the nk as a present concern.
 
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