Alright I'm retiring the tiermaker for now because I think it's too simplistic a tool to share whatever views I have on the game at this point. To my knowledge the thread dynamics in D2 have revolved around three main events that are the most telling about different people's positions:
1. The early argument between Celever/Shane about the EoD1 Cel wagon, with AF and myself as third parties
2. The attempted massclaim mainly driven by the quartet of JALMONT/Laurel/Clouds/M2H trying to take control of the thread
3. The frustration and suspicion around lowposters like Alice/genisu/HyHy that has increasingly boiled over due to stagnation and uncertainty about what the prior two months events mean for the game.
In my opinion, in a 13-4 scumteam world (which seems to be the default idea here), there is at least one scum from a major party in all three of these events. Nothing that has happened during D2 is completely pure.
EVENT 1: Beartic vs. Breloom fetus
-My thoughts on Celever are well-known atp, I think he's town and the pushes on him are being pushed by opportunistic scummies who see LHF and froth at the mouth. He hasn't composed himself that well this game, but neither has Jalmont and he's using that as a core talking point to justify his towniness so I put zero stock in the "erratic thread behavior = cele scum" idea. (your time is coming soon you Crackhead Cobalion Cosplayer)
-Shane is more suspicious to me because of how he presented himself in the argument, sure, but what's happened with him since then is even more telling. Decreased thread presence and very few unique contributions besides TRing Alice after getting neighborized which is a point in his favor tbf (unless an Alice wagon gets going and she flips scum). I feel he's mostly been sheeping the bluedoom/JALMONT/Clouds triumvirate which is weird bc I don't think those three are all that connected anymore in the way Celever's been describing. I do think that he has a lot of scum equity spread around rn, but mainly I feel he has S/S with Alice, T/T with bluedoom, he can't be on the same team as Celever, and there are decent chances of connections to JALMONT and/or AF.
-AF is weird to talk about because she hasn't given us much since the argument either, but that's also kinda typical for her. Content has been a bit low-effort but the reads she has given feel genuine so I'm conflicted about voting her. If she flips town then I think it's safe to say one of Cel/Shane is scum (probably shane) but if she's scum then I just have no clue.
Event 2: The Coup d'Claim
-This one started with Laurel as soon as he gave Clouds a BPV, I highly doubt Clouds would be so bold as to assume his current position with his role if Laurel hadn't enabled it. I'm highly suspicious of Laurel and I think he has S/S equity with Clouds, if there are two scum in this group it's probably them doing a crazy powerscum play. Regardless of alignment I'm tempted to flip Laurel because seeing his card info while dead is probably more useful to the solve than tolerating his current cagey behavior while alive. Expecting an inventor claim to townclear him is also preposterous and makes me even more sus. If there's a 3P I would think it's most likely Laurel
-Clouds is unreadable to me. Every read I have is based more on dynamics with other people than his own behavior, because his own behavior is so brazenly confident that I could expect it equally from a talkative PR townie and an experienced scummie. He becomes more suspicious if either JALMONT or Laurel flip scum, but especially Laurel. Cop claim is believable and Tommy makes sense as a target, but there's an outside chance that Clouds and Tommy are cooking something as scum so I wouldn't commit to believing the claim at face value.
-M2H was always gonna be at the front of a mess like this, I think it's most likely that he's being strung along by a scum elsewhere in this group; they gave a hungry dog a bone, and the dog demanded a massclaim afterward. Town equity with Clouds in particular
-JALMONT is a bastard and I hope he burns in hell. Vig claim is fake. No way he's on the same team as Laurel, Clouds partnership is unlikely but possible. He is solely responsible for N1 events still being so hazy and I almost want to vote him for that reason alone, but I know there's no support for it besides Laurel who could have his own motives. The changes to his meta are almost certainly scum-motivated, he keeps calling out bad ideas without suggesting better ones; which is to say, he insists that we're wrong about his behavior benefiting scum!jal but gives no convincing reason why it benefits town!jal imo.
-Bluedoom is interesting, I think neighborizer is towny. His decision to frequently go after lowposters is something I disagree with but understand. The only world I see him being scum at this point is if Shane flips town because they've mindmelded a lot to a point thay I think would be too obvious for scumbuddies.
Event 3: The Boredom-induced Witch Hunt
-Joey is mixed. His wagon is a placeholder for better leads due to how he plays. Role claim is weird but I don't think M2H has sufficiently disproven it. Likely T/S equity with M2H, Laurel interactions read to me as two confused townies shoutifn at each other, but I also think Joey is cleared town if Laurel flips scum.
-Genisu's play has been a comedy of errors, and that should say something coming from somebody as comparatively (to the wider thread) dumb as me. I think he's scum because JOAT claim is suspicious, holstering N1 is even more suspicious, pushing to be towncleared by his claim reads to me as inexperienced scum assuming a safeclaim is more valuable than it actually is. We also shouldn't forget that the D1 wagon on him was confirmed pure, and it would still have been pure if I stayed on it. I'm sick of him, I think he contributes nothing to town since I sus his claim, and I would support a wagon on him more than most.
-You're a certifiable idiot if you want Alice voted out. She is acting how I'd expect her to as town and I think the attraction to voting her is indicative of an inherent bias that experienced players have towards sussing lowposters by default. Voting Shane is a better way to solve her slot anyway bc I feel they have strong town equity from the neighborizing.
-I townread Tommy. I will be more suspicious of him if Clouds or genisu flips scum. That is all.
-Neon is not a productive discussion topic at present, I don't care to speculate about whether backup actually soft-confirms him as town.
I am still not placing my vote yet because I have too many overlapping/conflicting suspicions about people to commit to one narrative about how the game is being influenced by scum atp. I trust almost no one. My towncore is empty because all of my townreads/leans come with asterisks.
