NOC Pokemon Mystery Dungeon Mafia - Explorers - Game Thread (Game Over!)

I disagree with tommy and don't feel good about Alice. I'd like to know exactly what shane and Alice talked about while neighbored so I'm looking forward to reading a summary of that conversation. I don't recall very many specifics regarding that other than shane saying he had a good feeling about alice.

alice to me reads as wishy washy on everyone but then when it comes down to it votes genisu?
 
StupidFlandrs48 said:
-My thoughts on Celever are well-known atp, I think he's town and the pushes on him are being pushed by opportunistic scummies who see LHF and froth at the mouth. He hasn't composed himself that well this game, but neither has Jalmont and he's using that as a core talking point to justify his towniness so I put zero stock in the "erratic thread behavior = cele scum" idea. (your time is coming soon you Crackhead Cobalion Cosplayer)

-Genisu's play has been a comedy of errors, and that should say something coming from somebody as comparatively (to the wider thread) dumb as me. I think he's scum because JOAT claim is suspicious, holstering N1 is even more suspicious, pushing to be towncleared by his claim reads to me as inexperienced scum assuming a safeclaim is more valuable than it actually is. We also shouldn't forget that the D1 wagon on him was confirmed pure, and it would still have been pure if I stayed on it. I'm sick of him, I think he contributes nothing to town since I sus his claim, and I would support a wagon on him more than most.

I am still not placing my vote yet because I have too many overlapping/conflicting suspicions about people to commit to one narrative about how the game is being influenced by scum atp. I trust almost no one. My towncore is empty because all of my townreads/leans come with asterisks.
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StupidFlandrs48 said:
##vote Celever

Let's put the pressure on folks, let's get free progress without committing to a lynch
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this guy voted a someone he town read to force a claim while simultaneously having a scumread on the entire game and calls me out for lying about my role when he refuses to do it himself. what
 
obviously from my town pov

m2h clouds dusk bluedoom jalmont -> out of all these, I think m2h has the highest equity of deepwolf. mafia!laurel giving a bpv to random town player is never happening, so laurel and clouds basically have to be scum together if one is. the risk is making this play is just way too high and doesn't make sense from a mafia pov because it's not like laurel was under a lot of pressure. so i'm ok with laurel and clouds for now, and if clouds is town, then tommy almost certainly is too. this is something that should be revisited in a mylo situation with all these dudes alive.

random find: saber said genisu and clouds are scum, pulsar and m2h are scum lean. so unless the team is m2h and clouds i'm guessing saber wasn't killed for amazing reads. but my confidence is not that high that saber read through the thread and was like, lemme rev mar jalmont or dusk or smth idk. so kind of a nothingburger. moving on.

i guess maybe bluedoom is more likely deep wolf. does scum!m2h claim roleblocker and results prompted by me? i don't think so. kind of puts the mafia into a corner with their roleblocker where you can't hook the people you'd really like to hook and are stuck hitting the consensus bads (unless you have a bus driver!) anyways im spending too much time thinking about my towns. next.

hh, laurel, joey -> originally had laurel as slightly below null but given the above commentary i am ok moving him here. HH tried to cfd off of two town wagons. not conclusive evidence but a lot better looking than eg af getting on two town wagons. thought joey's reaction to m2h claim was towny.

joey has been reading me really well so plus points for that. joey and m2h are not mafia teammates. loses points for wagoning genisu. thinking more, i guess the claiming is kind of a wash, scum!joey is probably saying the same thing ALTHOUGH if joey had a different role in addition to the passive, that definitely would've been hooked and I think joey probably notes that he was hooked instead of acting surprised at m2h. so overall town on the balance for me.

null - shane, neon: again I don't know how to feel about shane becaues I don't know what shane is capable of. I rate people who play offsite pretty highly because i do think you need to be somewhat sociopathic to play this game a lot. i have to think if shane is scum, cele is town. but i lean towards cele scum so...don't want to rule out possible bus shenanigans, i could totally see shane and celever faking an argument that they could really go in a ton of directions with depending on reaction.

I paranoidly thought neon targeted me because i'm just so off on my reads and he's scum, but then I realized he just randed so lol.no clue what neon's scum game is like but all his behavior so far is consistent with what's come before. being behind on sheeting is a little off though.
 
this is below null:

alice, , flanders -> alice's townreads are really weird and...the exact opposite of mine. if cele/af/shane/flanders/bluedoom are all town...who tf is the mafia lol? that leaves neon/laurel/hh/joey which is ??? to me. i dunno i guess alice just comes off as so inoffensive...

flanders really fell off d2. the tunnelling on genisu now looks extremely bad. it's weird he was like "oh i'm holding off on my vote" and then end of the day he's voting like crazy. if flanders is bad, shane is probably ok and vice versa.

celever, af

celever didn't claim BG results. that's a bad look. Both AF and Cel were on me and then swapped to a town wagon when I claimed. AF also swapped onto a town wagon after celever claimed. i just don't really have any strong reasons to town read celever right now. voting pattern is bad, claim is bad (if you believe laurel is town, it's hard to see celever as town).

if celever is mafia, then all the voters who swapped off me to pulsar gain scum equity (dusk, m2h, AF, flanders).

if we assume AF bad -> shane is also probably bad, as shane was in legitimate danger but wasn't unsaveable and af ended up on genisu. way too close to deadline to bus in that situation especially since i assume AF would not bus without shane being present and giving the ok.

and my brain has died so i'm hitting the post button and going to bed. gn
 
The problem with a team of

Alice, celever, Flanders, a fairy

Just feels like they would distance better? Alice is town reading over half the game so in a way thats distancing but there were still a couple posts that were really specific in including these 4 as town. Other 3 have just been hard town reading without hedging too much. Someone should check my work on that though. That’s why it feels like Shane fits in a lot better even though he hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong. Feels like this group minus Alice ofc has fence sat much more on Shane than each other which makes more sense as far as keeping options flexible for votes.

What’s tricky is that the null slots don’t really slide in very well. It’s very hard to just be like “just swap neon for x and we are good”.

im wary about not taking Flanders seriously. It seems extremely risky to start a celever or even Shane wagon as teammates but he’s shown flashes of higher level play that a supposed beginner to mafia wouldn’t necessarily do or think of. I can see celever as a potential bus option, since if celever is scum he knows his time is short.
 
Night 2 Flips

Clouds may have spent a long time managing his dojo, but he didn't seem to put up much of a fight.

1708728122559.png


Clouds - Marowak, Town Cop - Killed Night 2!

Phase start will come soon.
 
It was a rough night, but you have to carry on. It's what Clouds would have wanted.

Probably.

Maybe?

It's hard to say for sure when Marowak only has like 20 lines.

Day 3 begins now. There are 48 hours left in the phase. With 13 alive, it takes 8 to hammer.
 
Btw over the night cycle I dicked around a bit with my sheets and figured out how to automate the 'Page' section.
1708713338552.png

And, to keep the blank spaces from being '-1' eyesores, I just set the conditional formatting to make the text for all '-1's in that column to be the same color as the background.

Oh, I also decided to make a giga sheet to compile who was in which games and such, ignoring the existence of MRM.
1000079962.jpg
 
And here's the rest of what I had drafted.
No, I don't care to account for Clouds flipping.

Clouds said:
it was an alright post and i think you're basing this heavily off of his reads not aligning with yours. i went back and read saber's posting from the unfinished game and i honestly didn't see enough differences to be calling saber town here. saber literally opens this game with "it's statistically unlikely to get scum twice" in defense to flanders, that's legit their opening post lol, i wonder what someone who rolled scum twice would say if they discussed amongst mafia that saber should be using the improbability factor as a point in his favor. the clash might be that you have the experience playing with him and you're spotting differences that make you feel like he's not capable of being scum here, i'm just not seeing that yet

that said... i'm not sure flanders and saber pair so i guess that impacts my worldview some
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So that's Psy, Zippy, pulsar, bluegummybear, Emerald, and, if you count 3p, Celever and Laurel.
Oh, and also you, should you flip scum this game.


Celever said:
I just think M2H has been involved in a lot of the same takes that Clouds / JALMONT / bluedoom have strongarmed toward prominence (Shane being scum because he posted a single wallpost; Neon being mech clear when he isn't mech clear (though I'm not clear on how much the oligarchy really pushed that one); pulsar being scum because her claim didn't seem good in a game with safeclaims, etc. etc.. But M2H hasn't latched onto some of the takes from the oligarchy like me being scum for not voting the oligarchy (tfw the despots try to catch-22 their political opponents into doing something that they can false arrest them for :trode:) and M2H has produced more distinct content besides that the full oligarchs haven't totally latched onto.

I think she should be included in the group but she is probably the likeliest town within that group at this stage. It feels like the oligarchy are piggybacking her when they think it's beneficial and M2H hasn't piggybacked the oligarchs too much in return.
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Wait a minute...
Celever-Scum said:
Ok this votecount pretty much confirmed my running theory on current thread vibes and though this post will def get lost I recommend reading this one bc I think it’s noteworthy

In some ways I feel like this is a game of 2 factions in the thread itself. This is on the reads of a whole number of players, and is notably rather reflected in the EoD1 votecount which is cool because I wasn’t sure it would be.

I noted that, repeatedly, slots that I viewed as polarised were being said to be consensus or near consensus slots by players time and time again. Some players I consider this regarding are myself, pulsar, Hydro, a fairy, and, earlier in the game, AG and tiger. Additionally, players have frequently read members of the same “faction” alongside each other in the same way, and the most noteworthy / seemingly productive interactions have also happened within these factions.

The two factions are roughly:
realiti, Sam, Hydro, Zippy, skipper

Me, a fairy, pulsar, Blazade, Neon

In the middle:
AG, Ehmcee, Rostam, tiger

Obviously neither one of these are perfect factions, but both groups have been borrowing / agreeing with reads a lot and mostly townread one another while having their scumreads in the other group or from those in neither faction. It’s almost alliancey, though I feel this is one-sided with particularly the first group minus skipper placing greater value on the reads of the other members within that group. OTOH, the second group feels more like natural agreement, with exceptions (I think pulsar has believably been sheeping me, for instance). AG is the most curious case since he has mostly aligned with the top group but never absolutely, and has dished sus evenly between them though with me and pulsar susses always being the strongest for him — before switching onto skipper in the EoD votecount. I’d argue Ehmcee is mostly similar but the inverse, where the EoD vote doesn’t align with prior behaviour. I think tiger was mostly top group during D1 but has almost flipped by EoD and since.

My running theory is that mafia teams are probably 2 from one group and one neutral probably, and more rarely one from the other group or 3 from one group. This herd mentality is notable and prolific even if people haven’t been participating in it willingly — for instance I feel Blazade will oppose being grouped with the bottom group but he has more in common with that group in game opinions than the top by a lot — and I’m pretty sure it doesn’t happen unless the people who actually know they’re a team accidentally put a herd mentality in-thread which causes a counter-herd because of human nature.

How the indie slots into this is contingent on how good the mafia were at reading the indie D1 and vice versa so who knows
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Duskfall98 said:
i would like to point out the good mechanic of having the multiple voter as showing in the vc btw

all new hosts take note
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Don't worry, my mayor's probably just gonna wind up spinning a wheel to determine whether their vote is worth 0, 1, or 2 votes instead or something.
I will hardcode rng into my game and you cannot stop me.
 
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