Serious The Politics Thread

[DerrickRose]

So we believe Warren, and all those other candidates were in cahoots with dnc? I mean.... they were losing and weren't going to win. Warren lost her home state and the rest could barely scratch double digits. We were in a year to defeat Trump with priority. It's just as likely those candiates feared Trump more than Biden and just wanted to do what was best for the democratic party. A long drawn out primary only stokes division and anger like it was in 2016.

If Bernie needed a crowded field to win a plurality (and that's a big if), it would have been disastrous.

 

[adjectivenoun]

So we believe Warren, and all those other candidates were in cahoots with dnc? I mean.... they were losing and weren't going to win. Warren lost her home state and the rest could barely scratch double digits. We were in a year to defeat Trump with priority. It's just as likely those candiates feared Trump more than Biden and just wanted to do what was best for the democratic party. A long drawn out primary only stokes division and anger like it was in 2016.

To me, these accusations of collusion have always read like cope from people who don't want to accept that Bernie just isn't that popular with the voting public. As much as I like Bernie, he probably never stood a chance against whoever the moderates threw their weight behind. Now that he's into his 80s, he's probably going to get passed up for a (relatively) young guy like Gavin Newsom in 2028. So it goes.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Unironically. #BernieCouldStillWin

 

[MrHands]

Unironically. #BernieCouldStillWin

He's 82. Bernie is actually older than Biden and Trump. He'll be 83 in like 2 months. Let the poor guy rest.

 

[Chou Toshio]

He’s so much sharper than both.

Never forget what they took from us—
Bernie would have won.

 

[RaikouLover]

To me, these accusations of collusion have always read like cope from people who don't want to accept that Bernie just isn't that popular with the voting public. As much as I like Bernie, he probably never stood a chance against whoever the moderates threw their weight behind. Now that he's into his 80s, he's probably going to get passed up for a (relatively) young guy like Gavin Newsom in 2028. So it goes.

Not sure about the general public but Bernie has been broadly popular among Democratic voters. I vaguely remember seeing a high approval poll during one of the primaries.

The knock on Bernie was mostly skepticism that a self-identifying Jewish socialist can beat felon Trump in a general election with moderate voters. It is a tough sell to voters of color in a must-win election. Everyone in my circle had the sentiment “I like Bernie a lot but I don’t think he can win. Not voting for him.” Bernie has popular policies and is likable otherwise though.

 

[ASMRxism]

So we believe Warren, and all those other candidates were in cahoots with dnc? I mean.... they were losing and weren't going to win. Warren lost her home state and the rest could barely scratch double digits. We were in a year to defeat Trump with priority. It's just as likely those candiates feared Trump more than Biden and just wanted to do what was best for the democratic party. A long drawn out primary only stokes division and anger like it was in 2016.

If Bernie needed a crowded field to win a plurality (and that's a big if), it would have been disastrous.

Pure speculation but I think Warren was left out of the conversation, probably because she'd be less likely to play ball or because her presence would pull from Bernie. But Buttigieg dropping out while leading against Biden, then securing the Transportation position? The rest of the moderates?

Not gonna pretend like Bernie was a guaranteed shoe-in, but hard not wonder why the candidates didn't wait til after Super Tuesday to see how they did before dropping out. Don't see why it would have mattered if he won a crowded field vs a slim one tho. Vote blue no matter who, right? Anyone but Trump?

 

[Divine Retribution]

He's 82. Bernie is actually older than Biden and Trump. He'll be 83 in like 2 months. Let the poor guy rest.

I mean I agree that Sanders deserves a rest more than any other politician but like... he's 82. Biden is 81. What's the big difference, exactly? I'm all on board for someone other than an old white dude running the country, but to pretend like his age is a mark against him when he's just over a year older than the guy you're supporting is a bit of a head-scratcher.

 

[juoean]

bernie sanders made very clear repeatedly that he doesnt/didnt want to run against biden so how is this relevant.

and yes ofc the democratic party leadership did not want bernie to be the candidate 4 years ago. the structure of each of the two parties is a part of the structure of class society and specifically its ideological apparatuses so idk what the orientation of these "would bernie have won the last primary if xyz" hypotheticals are, when it isnt knowable and even if there was a way to know the answer what does that 'mean'. yes propoganda exists and some candidates are promoted over others. the democratic party structure is one of many propoganda apparatuses that have such an effect.
(as to the would "bernie have done better vs trump" part thats at least a more relevant question since it potentially could influence voter choices, but also p unknowable, to my knowledge a lot of polls seemed to suggest that bernie vs trump had better polling but polls are notoriously unreliable, often fail to meet basic statistical standards and most importantly ignore the question of who will actually go out to vote, plus overall %s would be different from state by state %s.

this convo seems very fantasy-based, bernie is very clearly not interested in running, and even if this could somehow change idk why anyone thinks the democratic party leadership is actually considering finding a new candidate when they had years to do so and chose not to. and if u j want to have fun fantasizing okay thats fine but if the imperialist reactionary bernie sanders is anyone's fantasy then that is very disappointing (ofc biden is even worse)

edit oh also the "incumbent advantage" thing that was repeatedly brought up, this is an invention of bourgeois political science, this is the same "field" that insisted trump could never win an election etc. there is zero reason to believe that there is any such "incumbent advantage" in the world we live in, if anything there is a lot of ('circumstantial') evidence both within amerikan elections and in elections elsewhere around the world that suggests that it is beneficial to be seen as an 'outsider' or w e and harmful to be or be seen as an established etc incumbent.
"political science" is p inherently incapable of understanding anything bc it is built on a foundation of nonsense, i mean u can just listen to almost anyone in this field talk for 5 minutes and its obvious how ridiculous 99.9% of the "analyses" are, in addition to the fact that the "field"'s record of accurately evaluating candidates' chances etc is terrible, long past time to stop treating their nonsense as if it has any connection to reality

 

[MrHands]

I mean I agree that Sanders deserves a rest more than any other politician but like... he's 82. Biden is 81. What's the big difference, exactly? I'm all on board for someone other than an old white dude running the country, but to pretend like his age is a mark against him when he's just over a year older than the guy you're supporting is a bit of a head-scratcher.

I think you misinterpreted my comment (my fault, I didn't really explain). Both of them (and Trump) are absurdly old and shouldn't be presidential candidates. I say that as someone who really likes Biden. Unfortunately Trump isn't going away and Biden will still pull in the most votes due to name recognition alone. So for 2024 we're stuck with what we got.

Maybe 2028 will be better?.... ??

 

[Chou Toshio]

bernie sanders made very clear repeatedly that he doesnt/didnt want to run against biden so how is this relevant.

and yes ofc the democratic party leadership did not want bernie to be the candidate 4 years ago. the structure of each of the two parties is a part of the structure of class society and specifically its ideological apparatuses so idk what the orientation of these "would bernie have won the last primary if xyz" hypotheticals are, when it isnt knowable and even if there was a way to know the answer what does that 'mean'. yes propoganda exists and some candidates are promoted over others. the democratic party structure is one of many propoganda apparatuses that have such an effect.
(as to the would "bernie have done better vs trump" part thats at least a more relevant question since it potentially could influence voter choices, but also p unknowable, to my knowledge a lot of polls seemed to suggest that bernie vs trump had better polling but polls are notoriously unreliable, often fail to meet basic statistical standards and most importantly ignore the question of who will actually go out to vote, plus overall %s would be different from state by state %s.

this convo seems very fantasy-based, bernie is very clearly not interested in running, and even if this could somehow change idk why anyone thinks the democratic party leadership is actually considering finding a new candidate when they had years to do so and chose not to. and if u j want to have fun fantasizing okay thats fine but if the imperialist reactionary bernie sanders is anyone's fantasy then that is very disappointing (ofc biden is even worse)

Nothing is relevant— at this point it’s just finger twiddling until the Dems appoint the new ticket. Or decide to lose. Whatever. As much as I despise how little they’ve done or cared to save Democracy— fact is that right now ALL ability to change the situation and ALLLLLLLL responsibility rests squarely and solely with the Democratic leadership.


Literally nothing to do but wait to vote Dem— and not volunteer or donate for this garbage ticket because fuuuuuuuuck that. No. Fucking. Way.
(I will donate to Cory Bush for her primary though— despite her 2020 Warren endorsement. :Snake: )

All there is to say is—

Bernie. Would. Have. Won.

 

[juoean]

yea i mean the democratic party will be able to fundraise etc just as much if not even more if they lose the presidential election. the material interests of the democratic party do not depend on winning the presidential election (neither do those of the republican party). idk that the dems actively dont want to win the presidency, but it certainly is not their top priority, why would it be. biden gets his cushy retirement and its not like other democrats benefit from being in the same party as such an unpopular president.

even if "bernie would have won" is true which is unknowable, the reality is that biden was forced to pretend to adopt parts of bernie's platform anyway and conversely bernie would have prob said he needed to give up on various campaign promises etc to get the rest of the democratic party on board or such. ofc biden promptly ditched loan forgiveness and other promises but i wouldnt be confident that bernie wouldnt have done the same, ofc no way to rly know but theres a whole political machine involved. and the areas where the executive actually does have some independent power without needing the support of the party, are generally areas where bernie sanders is not all that distinguishable from the mainstream of the democratic party eg indifference to mass incarceration and migrant detention, support for the war machine including billions of $ to the zionist state every year. again i rly prefer to stay away from theoretical speculation but to act like everything would be great if only bernie had been the dem party candidate in 2020 makes a lot of assumptions to say the least and seems like it overemphasizes individuals and minimizes the structural reproduction mechanisms of the capitalist-imperialist state

 

[Chou Toshio]

the material interests of the Democratic Party do not depend on winning the presidential election (neither do those of the republican party).

Believe it or not, losing democracy to fascism is part of one’s material conditions— purportedly one that even elites liberals care about. Rich elite FDR understood it— that saving America required “going radical for a generation.”

Bernie. Would. Have. Woooooooon

 

[MrHands]

ofc biden promptly ditched loan forgivenes

The Republicans shut it down and Biden still forgave billions in student loans anyway. He also extended debt payments and helped millions with the SAVE plan (which again, Republicans are trying to fight in court).

I don't really care what candidate you vote for and tbh I didn't read the rest of your post but please don't spread misinformation.

 

[Volt-Ikazuchi]

Accurate. Can you export some of that reporting to the US? Our media is a fucking joke.

I wouldn't mind, but it's in Portuguese...

Same here in Brazil.

https://g1.globo.com/mundo/eleicoes...entaristas-da-globonews-analisam-debate.ghtml

Well, never mind

There was a primary and the voters spoke.

Nah, everyone knew what was up with that primary. That was even less competitive than the republican primary.

He looks fine here. Getting over a cold. Joe will be fine.

And there's no war in Ba Sing Se.

This debate was great for Trump, but not because he did great (He obviously didn't).

Trump's easiest way back to the White House is to simply drive enough apathy not to have people want to vote at all. He has an established voting base already. The only number worth looking up in the polls is the absentee percentage.

This was disastrous for Biden because people don't trust he's healthy enough to handle the job. That has been the main question for a long time. Yesterday, the answer was a resounding "No, he isn't".
Trump didn't gain a single vote in that debate. But Biden certainly lost some.

 

[juoean]

biden did some things, obv its not in the same universe as what was claimed post primary which is obviously what i was talking about. not going to waste time debating word choice when u make such embarrassing opportunist criticisms

 

[boo836]

The dropout + endorsements came days before Super Tuesday which is when Biden effectively secured the nomination. Yes, Bernie likely wasn't going to get a substantial portion of the Black vote, but the 5 prominent dems that dropped out and endorsed him right before Super Tuesday certainly helped him secure the nomination. My exact words were "it's insane to think that his success was entirely driven by voters wanting him" and that is absolutely true. It was not a coincidence all of them dropped out days before ST and endorsed the same guy.

I fucking LOVE that every primary is a conspiracy against the geriatric that the few very online people love in order to support the geriatric everyone else loves or at least tolerates. There's no better sign of the Democrats being cooked than this conspiracy theorist grievance is still going on after 8 years and that the people unable to move past it think that they understand how to really win.

 

[juoean]

but since other ppl reacted too if this really requires further explanation then i guess i should respond

the post i wrote was already long af, i was not and am not going to spend paragraphs on a detailed analysis of the history of student loan policies over the past four years. one thing worth mentioning that has not been in either post above is biden's decision to declare the end to the pandemic, which ofc primarily was done in order to allow landlords to raise rents and carry out evictions but also had the consequence of resuming student loan collection.

mr hands says she didnt even read the post (yet still thought that she had a basis to criticize it! dont we love descartes and the european humanist belief in the right to speak regardless of knowledge of the facts), but the context of the quoted sentence was me talking to someone who was arguing how different things would have been if bernie had been president instead of biden. student loans was used as an example of a policy issue where there was a significant gap between the two candidates' initial platforms, where biden's platform post primary was moved closer to sanders' (to try to get sanders primary voters who may not have wanted to vote for biden, etc), and the platform/'promise' was as usual not followed throw on. the point of my post was that even in the case of such a policy, it is very uncertain that a significantly different outcome would have occurred with bernie as president instead, bc he would still often be acting within boundaries determined by the political party. the extent to which republican obstruction was a limitation, which idt we can entirely know the extent bc backroom dealings etc but obviously it is not a policy that had or has any bipartisan support so certainly republican obstruction has some influence here, only further supports the point that it shouldnt be assumed that bernie would have reached a significantly better outcome.

the sentence i wrote is what was relevant in the context of my post, that biden did not do what he 'promised' in the post primary campaign, and that this was an example of something that might be used to claim that evthg would be great had bernie been elected. a detailed historical analysis of student loan policies would have been extremely off topic and made it harder to follow the core of the conversation. (just as mr hands decision to criticize something without reading it makes the conversation confusing and hard to follow.)

oh as for the word choice of ditched, yea prob wasnt the best wording if someone wants to give me a better way to word it go ahead, but i am happy when im able to write without being compulsive about word choices idt its that big a deal and i think it can be understood from the context what was meant

 

[faint]

I fucking LOVE that every primary is a conspiracy against the geriatric that the few very online people love in order to support the geriatric everyone else loves or at least tolerates. There's no better sign of the Democrats being cooked than this conspiracy theorist grievance is still going on after 8 years and that the people unable to move past it think that they understand how to really win.

This is a weird stance to take when the geriatric man you're supporting was dying on stage so clearly the other night that the entire party is in disarray on what to do. One of these geriatric men is still able to perform his job and complete coherent sentences. The other is being congratulated by his wife for answering questions like a dog that finally used the bathroom outside.

 

[boo836]

This is a weird stance to take when the geriatric man you're supporting was dying on stage so clearly the other night that the entire party is in disarray on what to do. One of these geriatric men is still able to perform his job and complete coherent sentences. The other is being congratulated by his wife for answering questions like a dog that finally used the bathroom outside.

"At least my desired candidate doesn't have a stutter!" Isn't the own you think it is when your entire gripe is supposedly about the age of the candidates. Biden's doing a damn fine job and pretending a very unpopular person who couldn't even piece together a decent campaign would be performing better is ridiculous. It's clearly not age that's your problem with Biden, it's that Democratic voters didn't give you what you wanted, and they'll have to endure the world's longest tantrum for it.

 

[faint]

"At least my desired candidate doesn't have a stutter!" Isn't the own you think it is when your entire gripe is supposedly about the age of the candidates. Biden's doing a damn fine job and pretending a very unpopular person who couldn't even piece together a decent campaign would be performing better is ridiculous. It's clearly not age that's your problem with Biden, it's that Democratic voters didn't give you what you wanted, and they'll have to endure the world's longest tantrum for it.

I'm not concerned with his age. I'm concerned about his cognitive ability. Both Trump and Bernie are far more coherent and present and neither of them are far from Biden in age. If you think what we witnessed the other day was his stutter you are on severe levels of copium. Go watch how he performed in 2020 and you'll see that he was a completely different person. Joe Biden has always been an excellent speaker even with his stutter so it's not hard to see he's not as sharp as he used to be. You need to stop larping as a contrarian and join the rest of us in reality. Are you even eligible to vote?

 

[Chou Toshio]

Y

I wouldn't mind, but it's in Portuguese...


Well, never mind


Nah, everyone knew what was up with that primary. That was even less competitive than the republican primary.


And there's no war in Ba Sing Se.

This debate was great for Trump, but not because he did great (He obviously didn't).

Trump's easiest way back to the White House is to simply drive enough apathy not to have people want to vote at all. He has an established voting base already. The only number worth looking up in the polls is the absentee percentage.

This was disastrous for Biden because people don't trust he's healthy enough to handle the job. That has been the main question for a long time. Yesterday, the answer was a resounding "No, he isn't".
Trump didn't gain a single vote in that debate. But Biden certainly lost some.

Actually, and insanely, polls show that in a high turn out election, Trump wins. First time ever in modern politics—

Biden has lost the youth vote (and Right-Tube has fostered enough young mysoginist/fascist men) and minority vote to such a degree that he’s now reliant on the old white voting base to a degree that if turnout is high, Trump will win.

There are also a looooot of voters who will choose just based on vibes, and want “a leader who is strong.”

It’s not just suppressing potential Biden votes, there definitely ARE votes for Trump to win—

and enough young men especially with regressive tendencies out there who can be swayed and swing this thing.

I think you’re analysis is mostly right, but Biden’s chances and the impact here are actually significantly worse.

 

[RaikouLover]

I'm not concerned with his age. I'm concerned about his cognitive ability. Both Trump and Bernie are far more coherent and present and neither of them are far from Biden in age. If you think what we witnessed the other day was his stutter you are on severe levels of copium. Go watch how he performed in 2020 and you'll see that he was a completely different person. Joe Biden has always been an excellent speaker even with his stutter so it's not hard to see he's not as sharp as he used to be. You need to stop larping as a contrarian and join the rest of us in reality. Are you even eligible to vote?

If style is more important than substance, you are already living in the reality that the felon and his sycophants want us to join them in.

Biden had a bad debate. Biden is the nominee. People need to get over it fast cause it ain’t changing. The only question that matters is who had and will have a better Presidential administration. It is Biden or the felon. Pick a side.

 

[faint]

If you are implying that any criticism of Biden's mental decline is a right-wing talking point you are a lost cause. Nothing is going to change your mind that Biden is not fit to run even if he dropped dead in front of you. People who are paid by the DNC are literally scrambling to control the narrative and you guys are just trying to tell the world it's just a stutter.

Who are you picking?

Neither.

 

[RaikouLover]

If you are implying that any criticism of Biden's mental decline is a right-wing talking point you are a lost cause. Nothing is going to change your mind that Biden is not fit to run even if he dropped dead in front of you. People who are paid by the DNC are literally scrambling to control the narrative and you guys are just trying to tell the world it's just a stutter.

The ballots are being created as we speak. First votes will be cast in just two months. It’s Biden or the felon.

Who are you picking?