Hi, I suppose I'll elaborate a bit because I couldn't be bothered to predict the games myself. I'll try to keep a running really this year of how many games I get right.
Shitrock enjoyer vs skarpherim
I had to watch a few skarph games in the last couple days because I haven't been paying as much attention to the tournament scene as I used to. I've had an impression of him as a ladder grinder who's mostly really good at farming "mid-level" players, and I don't think that's too far off - a lot of his play involves getting into loops and waiting to either get a lucky break or for his opponent to make a mistake. His technique is really good once he has an advantage, but I think he'll have a hard time against opponents whose mistakes are few and far between. I don't mean to discredit him because he's had an amazing year of adv, but I just don't think his playstyle lends itself to bo1 against the top players in the game. In simple game states I think he's one of the best around but he doesn't seem to be good at adding in complexity after he's fallen behind and he sometimes takes negative trades in order to simplify the game, which can lower his odds of winning (I do this all the time too and I need to be better at recognizing that in my own play). I have to give him credit for being the first person I've ever seen to win a game with medicham on screen past turn 150.
In contrast, fruhdazi thrives in complicated situations. I really don't have anything new to say about him so I won't waste time or space on it. This game has a weird dynamic where fruhdazi is the clear favorite, but I think he's also the one who has to introduce complications early and catch his opponent off guard. He's really good at this so I do expect him to win, but if skarpherim can equalize out of the opening and simplify the game then things could go south for him quickly.
Zinc vs Endill
Zinc is a good player but just entirely unproven at this level of play. It seems like just the other day to me that Endill and Watermess were drafted together to the sharks and the power rankings writers were calling them total unknowns, having only accomplished a first and second place finish (respectively) in an adv seasonal. Well, Endill's on the other side of the billing now as the savvy vet who is expected to easily take care of the newcomer, whose power rankings entry touts a 2-1 performance in adv world cup. I'll admit I fully expect zinc to walk away from this spl with 0 to 3 wins, but I hope she can hold her head high and keep performing elsewhere - one need look no farther than her current opponent for inspiration, who only had a single win in spl this year and has become one of the tier's most established names. I don't have too much to say about their playstyles or how I think this game will go, I just think Endill will keep it simple and come away with the win.
Mayo vs Prinz
Mayo has been a fixture of the competitive scene for a couple years now and always seems to put up solid results, but it seems like they're more likely to falter when the lights get bright. Prinz has seen it all, been here a million times before, and on top of that is coming off of a more successful individual year than mayo (and all but a couple other players as well). This should be a good game, like all the others this week, but I think Prinz holds a mental edge as well as just being a bit better at playing the game. If I were mayo I would swing for the fences in the teambuilder and early portions of the game.
Johnald vs Garay Oak
This is a classic matchup of the noble adv mainer against the wicked non-builder, and as you can see I've sided with the one who doesn't build. I think of Garay Oak as one of the best players on this site, and somebody who can slot into pretty much any tier in spl and come out with 6-8 wins. I think the key to beating him for most of the rest of the pool is to take advantage of the fact that he's not as familiar with the tier (although he does have a long and successful career of playing adv, he doesn't live and breathe it the same way a lot of these people do) and gain a large advantage before he can figure out what's going on in the game. I don't think johnald's defensive playstyle is very conducive to making that happen. I would absolutely bring offense this game, I just don't know if that's what johnald is going to be most comfortable piloting, especially while he's trying to get into the swing of things week 1 of spl.
Triangles vs Violet River
River had a very strong start to her career in 2024, but failed to continue those results in her first spl (have i lost track of time? I'm not going to check rn but it's very possible I'm talking about 2 years ago). Since then, it seems like she's been more focused on learning other tiers than chasing results in adv, and my impression is that she'd be happier and maybe more successful too playing rby. That's obviously not to say she'll be a pushover, and there are a handful of players in the pool I'll put her over, at least right now. Triangles has also had a pretty quiet year, although the last time I laddered (which, to be fair, was before the speed pass ban) I did run into him a couple of times. The amount of success he's had in the past, including many instances of coming back from being washed, means I will consider him one of the top players in the pool until proven otherwise. He's somewhat prone to overcooking, but his opponent here is too. I think River needs a good matchup to win this one.
I thought about trying to assign odds but I don't really like to pick numbers based on vibes to that degree. Nobody's above 70% to win any given matchup imo especially at this point in the season and I think it's more fun to try and guess what each player will or should be doing. Then you can see how wrong I was (probably very) or occasionally I can say I'm smarter than everybody.
Did they take away the preview post button on smogon? I hope my formatting is right.
