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Tournaments SPL XVII ADV Hype Thread

the boy vs skarph
zinc vs Endill
mayo
vs prinz (looking forward to this one the most)
johnald vs Garay oak
Triangles vs river

Im excited for a lot of the different matchup potentials this year, obv with the starters but also the subs as well if/when they get an opportunity. Looking forward to seeing all of yall do your thing at the highest level
 
After a very interesting week 1, W2 pairings are up!
Let's keep the predictions going :blobthumbsup:

[WOL] violet river vs [CRY] zinc
[CLA] Garay oak vs [TYR] shitrock enjoyer
[RUI] Prinz vs [BIG] Johnald
[RAI] Endill vs [SHA] mayo
[TIG] Skarpherim vs [SCO] Triangles

violet river vs zinc
Garay oak vs shitrock enjoyer
Prinz vs Johnald
Endill vs mayo
Skarpherim vs Triangles
 
violet river vs zinc- river's team selection is more flexible
Garay oak vs shitrock enjoyer - tough to go against fruh with abr support, but Garay has the experience to close the gap
Prinz vs Johnald - a prime Alexander++ can beat anyone in this field; w1 Prinz has some work to do though.
Endill vs mayo - it'll come down to the teams
Skarpherim vs Triangles - I bold old. My Larp Machine is fried though so I can't get a good read on Triangles, but it'll likely be a close match.
 
[WOL] violet river vs zinc [CRY] -

Okay, my short take here is that this match could genuinely go either way, but that I think River has shown that she's more capable of a player.

[CLA] Garay oak vs shitrock enjoyer [TYR]

Dazi is by far the most capable player in this pool but I think if anyone can give him a run for his money in this section, it is Garay. However, I also think Dazi has a running habit of eating most ADV boomers for breakfast based on play style and approach, and I think unless Garay really pushes himself in the builder, this is going to be a Dazi W.

[RUI] Prinz vs Johnald [BIG]

People may think I'm Crazy for being down on Prinz- even if he did well in Rev- but I genuinely think Johnald has this locked. Prinz's prep and play last week (that attempted dug trap) and I think Johnald is primed to take advantage of that quality of play. You can't get away with throwing your best tool in the matchup on the SPL mainstage.

[RAI] Endill vs mayo [SHA]

Endill's got this, and that's beyond my bias as someone who got into ADV during the Bkccord isolation era. He's a better player, but I do think this matchup is closer than others.

[TIG] Skarpherim vs Triangles [SCO]

Skarph impresses me with his ability to play the game at such a high level on ladder- but I think Siglut's analysis from Last Week is perfectly on the money. He makes suboptimal plays looking to simplify endgames, and I think Triangles is an experienced enough player to leverage that in the MU.
 
Hi all I'll start this week by giving a quick review of the week 1 games before going into predictions for week 2.

Fruhdazi vs Skarpherim:
Skarpherim brings like exactly what you would think he'd bring (boring tss ft defensive starmie) and fruhdazi brings a pretty standard concept of his as well (team that looks normal except there's a registeel for some reason). A common thread among defensive starmie teams (which typically lack swampert or suicune) is being pretty weak to earthquake - I can definitely imagine this playing out in testing and that being the reason the Aero has HP Fighting in order to switch in on and surprise a tyranitar that has no reason to click moves other than EQ. This only led to further issues with celebi, however, now that it's not threatened for most or all of its health from aerodactyl. I have to imagine that fruhdazi brought celebi alongside physical tyranitar and aerodactyl expecting a team with a physical backbone of defensive starmie and metagross, as this is definitely a comfort zone team for skarph.

The first notable turn to me this game was fruhdazi switching to swampert against jirachi, most likely expecting a fire punch defensive set (a fair guess at this point in the game). This backfires as the jirachi clicks calm mind, putting him in an extremely tight position. A switch to registeel (and the ensuing thunder wave click) seems almost like a desperation play at this point - if jirachi subs on thunder wave the game is extremely hard to recover. I don't know if he knew the team already or something, but it turns out to be the much less dangerous cm wish rachi instead. He may have thought that the 2nd CM indicated it was not substitute as well, or just been planning a pivot registeel on hp grass and then to tyranitar on the other coverage move, but this is a pretty risky sequence as well. I think if skarpherim sacrifices his starmie against celebi instead of switching aero into leech seed he would be able to give himself a 50/50 turn to win the game, hitting rock slides notwithstanding, although there may be a line involving fruhdazi preserving a low hp celebi to fight jirachi that spoils that. HP Fighting notably concedes the speed tie to opposing aero, for anybody reading this who may not know.


Endill vs Zinc:
Both players brought teams from 5 years ago. Blue offense from Endill is all right and zinc's team is reminiscent of those altina teams with 5 mons weak to skarmory + skarmory (although usually those teams carried a claydol). I don't really have too much to say about the team choices and I am unsure what matchups each player was looking for, and I assume at least for Endill that blue offense is a comfort pick.

I don't have too much to say about this game either. I think the misclick that Endill refers to at the end of the game is dragon dancing the second time, but this is a pretty reasonable play to make and the only one that beats Zinc going for a second dance. Rock slide is technically better considering flinch chance and that fact that it may just ko outright. No real mistakes made from Zinc in her spl debut is nice to see.


Mayo vs Prinz:
This one is pretty uninteresting to me. Dugtrio special offense is just bad and it runs into one of its many nightmare matchups (skarmory + blissey + anything with a speed stat...). Prinz keeps it close with some luck and mayo pp stalls hydro pump to pretty much seal the game.


Johnald vs Garay Oak
I really like johnald's team here, jolt+cloyster is such a fun composition and pairs excellently with dd mence, I've always done it with toxic jolteon but spreading twave for sub dd mence is very clever. 2 atk ddmence coverage is always an issue, and I think the choice to be walled by zap aero makes sense here as at least zap is likely to take paralysis. Garay's team is jank and I do not particularly understand it. Hp grass p2 makes no sense to me at all on a team with gyara, hera, and lax, but it ends up putting in a great performance here. I absolutely loved watching cloyster eat a +2 brick break from heracross. I think that johnald had pretty reasonable odds to win this one but it's too complicated for me to estimate.


Triangles vs river
I love seeing quadruple choice band from triangles. Along with the two from river, this game had a 50% use rate of choice bands, which is great. Both teams coincidentally using dug aero is interesting as that's a pretty uncommon pairing. As for the game itself, nothing too crazy happened. It was pretty much just a trade war where river pulled ahead ands triangles then got a few guesses right in a row to win the game.



My record so far: 3-2

Predictions:
violet river vs zinc
Zinc didn't play badly at all in week 1, but I don't think she did anything terribly impressive either, and river's loss was more due to a handful of 50/50 turns than any mistakes she made as well. I think River will make this game complicated and difficult for her opponent, and that should lead to a victory.

Garay oak vs shitrock enjoyer
I'll take the upset here, Garay is a player who does his own thing and I think that fruhdazi's metagaming may come back to bite him a bit.

Prinz vs Johnald
I'm going to predict Alexander again by the team choice last week did shake my confidence a bit. Johnald brought my favorite team of last week and I hope he keeps that up. I'm too lazy to check but I think these two may have met in adv revival with prinz coming out on top.

Endill vs mayo
These two are both typically solid and don't do anything way too fancy. I expect Endill to win in a game that doesn't really get out of hand for him - either it's balance on balance and he can grind out a win or mayo tries to mix it up and falters early.

Skarpherim vs Triangles
Skarph impressed me in his loss last week and triangles didn't really display anything besides prediction in his win, but I just think this has to be a skill gap matchup.
 
Hi all I'll start this week by giving a quick review of the week 1 games before going into predictions for week 2.

Fruhdazi vs Skarpherim:
Skarpherim brings like exactly what you would think he'd bring (boring tss ft defensive starmie) and fruhdazi brings a pretty standard concept of his as well (team that looks normal except there's a registeel for some reason). A common thread among defensive starmie teams (which typically lack swampert or suicune) is being pretty weak to earthquake - I can definitely imagine this playing out in testing and that being the reason the Aero has HP Fighting in order to switch in on and surprise a tyranitar that has no reason to click moves other than EQ. This only led to further issues with celebi, however, now that it's not threatened for most or all of its health from aerodactyl. I have to imagine that fruhdazi brought celebi alongside physical tyranitar and aerodactyl expecting a team with a physical backbone of defensive starmie and metagross, as this is definitely a comfort zone team for skarph.

The first notable turn to me this game was fruhdazi switching to swampert against jirachi, most likely expecting a fire punch defensive set (a fair guess at this point in the game). This backfires as the jirachi clicks calm mind, putting him in an extremely tight position. A switch to registeel (and the ensuing thunder wave click) seems almost like a desperation play at this point - if jirachi subs on thunder wave the game is extremely hard to recover. I don't know if he knew the team already or something, but it turns out to be the much less dangerous cm wish rachi instead. He may have thought that the 2nd CM indicated it was not substitute as well, or just been planning a pivot registeel on hp grass and then to tyranitar on the other coverage move, but this is a pretty risky sequence as well. I think if skarpherim sacrifices his starmie against celebi instead of switching aero into leech seed he would be able to give himself a 50/50 turn to win the game, hitting rock slides notwithstanding, although there may be a line involving fruhdazi preserving a low hp celebi to fight jirachi that spoils that. HP Fighting notably concedes the speed tie to opposing aero, for anybody reading this who may not know.


Endill vs Zinc:
Both players brought teams from 5 years ago. Blue offense from Endill is all right and zinc's team is reminiscent of those altina teams with 5 mons weak to skarmory + skarmory (although usually those teams carried a claydol). I don't really have too much to say about the team choices and I am unsure what matchups each player was looking for, and I assume at least for Endill that blue offense is a comfort pick.

I don't have too much to say about this game either. I think the misclick that Endill refers to at the end of the game is dragon dancing the second time, but this is a pretty reasonable play to make and the only one that beats Zinc going for a second dance. Rock slide is technically better considering flinch chance and that fact that it may just ko outright. No real mistakes made from Zinc in her spl debut is nice to see.


Mayo vs Prinz:
This one is pretty uninteresting to me. Dugtrio special offense is just bad and it runs into one of its many nightmare matchups (skarmory + blissey + anything with a speed stat...). Prinz keeps it close with some luck and mayo pp stalls hydro pump to pretty much seal the game.


Johnald vs Garay Oak
I really like johnald's team here, jolt+cloyster is such a fun composition and pairs excellently with dd mence, I've always done it with toxic jolteon but spreading twave for sub dd mence is very clever. 2 atk ddmence coverage is always an issue, and I think the choice to be walled by zap aero makes sense here as at least zap is likely to take paralysis. Garay's team is jank and I do not particularly understand it. Hp grass p2 makes no sense to me at all on a team with gyara, hera, and lax, but it ends up putting in a great performance here. I absolutely loved watching cloyster eat a +2 brick break from heracross. I think that johnald had pretty reasonable odds to win this one but it's too complicated for me to estimate.


Triangles vs river
I love seeing quadruple choice band from triangles. Along with the two from river, this game had a 50% use rate of choice bands, which is great. Both teams coincidentally using dug aero is interesting as that's a pretty uncommon pairing. As for the game itself, nothing too crazy happened. It was pretty much just a trade war where river pulled ahead ands triangles then got a few guesses right in a row to win the game.



My record so far: 3-2

Predictions:
violet river vs zinc
Zinc didn't play badly at all in week 1, but I don't think she did anything terribly impressive either, and river's loss was more due to a handful of 50/50 turns than any mistakes she made as well. I think River will make this game complicated and difficult for her opponent, and that should lead to a victory.

Garay oak vs shitrock enjoyer
I'll take the upset here, Garay is a player who does his own thing and I think that fruhdazi's metagaming may come back to bite him a bit.

Prinz vs Johnald
I'm going to predict Alexander again by the team choice last week did shake my confidence a bit. Johnald brought my favorite team of last week and I hope he keeps that up. I'm too lazy to check but I think these two may have met in adv revival with prinz coming out on top.

Endill vs mayo
These two are both typically solid and don't do anything way too fancy. I expect Endill to win in a game that doesn't really get out of hand for him - either it's balance on balance and he can grind out a win or mayo tries to mix it up and falters early.

Skarpherim vs Triangles
Skarph impressed me in his loss last week and triangles didn't really display anything besides prediction in his win, but I just think this has to be a skill gap matchup.
fyi johnald has never been in adv revival, I think you are confusing johnald for someone else prinz won against in adv revival
 
River vs zinc (looking forward to this one the most)
Garay oak vs the boy
Prinz vs Johnald
endill vs mayo
Skarpherim
vs Triangles

I made predictions but honestly these are all such cool matchups that they are practically just coin flips in my head. Good luck to everyone !
 
I've enjoyed watching the SPL games this season and reading this thread, so I thought I'd contribute too.

First, I want to point out that the newcomers are playing well. Johnald and Zinc both had clean debuts: no egregious mistakes, and they pulled the trigger when they needed to.

I'm also going to comment on the teams used, but this is SPL Bo1. No team is perfect, and I've definitely brought my share of bad teams before. Don't take any criticism personally.

Fruh vs Skarpherim
Really enjoyable game with a lot of interactions. I like Skarph’s team structurally; it fits my own comfort zone well (Wish CM Rachi + cleric support, Skarm + Wish in general). That said, it’s extremely soft into Celebi, especially with Fight Aero and that Jirachi coverage, which feels odd into the premier Celebi spammer in the playerbase. Also, how is an IB Starmie ever slower than Celebi on this team?

Fruh’s team is also cool. It feels like an offensive take on classic Forry + CeleWater builds, which fits his playstyle. It’s pretty soft into TauntGar with Physical Ttar and Forry/Registeel as prime targets, but you can try to pivot around with Celebi, and Zap on Forry can function as a decent (50%) bait.

I liked Skarph’s early use of Jirachi to pressure Fruh’s defense while the set was still unrevealed, forcing some awkward lines. The hard Boom on turn 36 to open Aero was also nice.

Fruh did a great job leveraging his two main win conditions (Tyranitar and Celebi) to unlock the game.

On turn 50, though, I think the Celebi switch is pointless. Two turns later he’s in the same gamestate as turn 49, except he risked losing Celebi to an HP Grass crit on the initial switch.

Endill vs Zinc
Endill played a really strong game overall imo, consistently keeping up pressure despite some bad luck (the Meta boost, then the Pert crit later). Unfortunately, it ends with a misclick in a position where he’d already done the hardest part of the job, especially since both Mence and Hera were faster than Zinc’s Mence.

Turn 21 didn’t really need to be a prediction. HP Flying puts Mence in Hera range for later, and Suicune was always forcing Mence out to reset DD anyway.

Team-wise, not much to add. I was surprised by Zinc stacking Pert/Meta/Mence on TSS. The team looks very weak to Spikes, which is why Pert is often replaced by Claydol or Starmie in these builds. None of those mons help much against Suicune either, which is another big threat here. It worked out this time since Endill had no Spikes or CroCune.

mayo vs Prinz
Hard game to rate. Prinz gets hard punished by Bliss + 1 Spikes and misses a crucial Pump on turn 2, which would’ve given him room to trap Blissey with Dug. The playstyle is also pretty janky: if Skarm Roars Meta it forces Boom, and if it pulls Dug you get free Spikes anyway. The other big weakness shows too, namely Rest Suicune, which ends up pretty much winning the game by itself.

mayo’s team is a known, solid six, but I’m not sold on some of the sets. As it stands, Roar Cune kind of just wins. It feels like Blissey should have a status move to prevent that. These sets also explain why mayo went for the kamikaze Skarm turn 1, which could’ve been very costly.

Despite these nitpicks, both played well, and it somehow still came down to the wire despite mayo’s huge lead.

Garay vs Johnald
Really nice game overall; I liked what both players showed.

Garay’s Magneton switch on turn 14 was excellent. It covers a potential Spiker, Meta staying in to click RS or Mash, and even Boom, since the team could still be spikeless at that point. In that scenario, Magneton is the piece you’re happy to give up. That switch ends up being game-changing, denying Johnald his Spikes and letting Garay extract a ton of value from Mag afterward.

If I were Johnald, I’d probably try to leverage Sand earlier to pressure P2 and the likely Sand-weak backline, especially on turn 18 by bringing out Ttar. It also increases Swampert’s threat level, even though it had already been misplayed into taking a Toxic.

There’s also a line where Johnald can Boom Meta on turn 5. Either P2 switches and stays at ~50% for the rest of the game with Sand up immediately after, or you trade Meta for P2 outright, which is generally good for the team. That said, it’s not guaranteed you can convert that trade cleanly.

The midgame gets pretty wild: Cloy living a +2 BB, Snorlax full paras, Sub Mence reveal, etc., but both players navigated their outs correctly from there.

On the team side, I agree with Siglut: Sub Mence pairs well with TW Jolteon. I also like Garay’s TW Gyara as a partner for Heracross, since it can paralyze Mence and Aero. The team is definitely flimsy and probably struggles into a standard Ttar/Aero/Skarm core if the opponent correctly uses Ttar to check Gyara first. Still, if played perfectly, you always feel like you have outs with Meta/Lax/Mag as a breaking core.

river vs Triangles
Funny that this game ended up as a Dug/Aero ditto, basically a pure trade war.

Triangles definitely gets bailed out by the Pump dodge given how racey the game was, but that’s also the risk you take when running Pump (even if the extra damage vs Skarm or Pert is appealing).

Registeel really shows its value here as a Zapdos answer and as a hard punish to EQ with Counter. I also liked river’s Zapdos and Dugtrio usage to stay ahead in sack count.

Turn 21 is the critical moment (as shown by river’s timer usage). I tried to find a way to avoid the Aero guessing game and think there’s a possible line:
  • Turn 21: sack Zapdos to Aero, go Regi on Edge lock
  • Turn 22: click Toss. Either Aero Edges and doesn’t 2HKO, or you hit the Meta switch (more likely) for ~30%. Same situation as the game, except Dugtrio is still alive
  • Turn 23: click Counter on Metagross. If it Mash-es, it’s in Rock Slide range; if it EQs, you die
From there, you can lock Aero into Rock Slide and always have the speed tie plus Dug in the back for Triangles’ Aero. This line only works if river is Adamant Dug, since that also gives you a chance to OHKO Aero with Rock Slide.

Alternatively, with Dug available, river can also hard Dug on turn 21 into a Meta double switch, EQ it into Rock Slide range, and reach an endgame of Aero speed tie + Registeel vs Triangles’ Aero.
----

And that's it! I ended up yapping a lot more than anticipated when I started this post lol. Good luck to everyone in their week 2 games!
 
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