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Tournaments SPL XVII ADV Hype Thread

Great week of adv! Let's get into it!

River vs Zinc:
I don't really like river's team. I know it's had a ton of success on ladder, but the inadequacies of defensive starmie were pretty huge here. Even if it doesn't get caught by a zap cannon on the way in it doesn't contest forretress at all and it's too susceptible to chip damage.
Zinc's team is awesome. I always love to see bug Zap boom, assuming it is boom of course, forretress, and to assume a little bit more I think the last is probably aerodactyl to patch the weakness to fires and zapdos that the rest of the team displays. She does a good job of chipping tyranitar early and not letting it bully its way through its checks and just maintains a solid material advantage through the game, making the aerodactyl endgame easy to navigate. It's hard to imagine that crit in the end being very impactful. The sleep talk toxic on swampert was fairly impactful, but pert being stonewalled by zap and rachi means it was destined not to accomplish too much.
Another great game from zinc! One can be an accident, two can be a coincidence, but it looks like she's the real deal and I hope she continues to prove it.



Garay Oak vs Fruhdazi:
We start out by seeing a celebi take 46 from +1 ice beam and the game only gets weirder from there. Fruhdazi has the curselax user's dream position of boosting in front of a forretress that clicks spikes while Garay realizes he's in trouble and goes to gengar. This looks like an amazing spot to trade for fruhdazi, but he reveals that he's entirely walled by gengar and switches to pursuit metagross. Garay makes a great play and goes to tyranitar on the burned metagross, pursuiting it in kind and leaving it too low to finish the remaining half of gengar's hp. If there's any point where fruhdazi could have salvaged the game, it would probably be accepting to trade some of celebi's hp for gengar on turn 39, but that celebi hp is a pretty significant thing to give up. If I have to imagine here, he probably thought that his celebi subbing against garay's was his best chance to victory at this point and didn't want to give that up. That or he just thought Garay would explode, although there's not that much reason to against the unboosted celebi (but it was not unreasonable to play for a choke in this situation).
Using pursuit metagross to open up curselax which is walled by gengar is inadvisable in a vacuum, and while pursuit metagross is probably the best 6th to have their I think that's something of an indictment on the other 5 mons. Maybe an improvement could be something like curse ball eq boom lax and exchange the 2 steels for something else, as subcm celebi tends to do well in a lot of the matchups you'd want curselax in anyway. Garay's team was very normal and I don't have too much to say about it, other than that I think we should leave these forre (with rapid spin) + suittar compositions behind in 2020. If you're going to bring it, gengar celebi aero is probably the way.


Prinz vs johnald:
Just an uninteresting game where prinz doesn't get to play. Some of this is self-inflicted, can't complain about missing a hydro pump like that, but the crit on snorlax and the breloom-zapdos interaction basically ruined all hope. I'd probably give johnald the edge on matchup anyway, but I don't have anything to say about either team.



Endill vs Mayo:
This was an amazing game by Endill, aside from one really boneheaded turn. I love the patience he displayed getting the spike despite being full parad twice on his 1 turn windows. He made some really clean plays with dugtrio as well. Similarly to how the zinc vs river game highlighted some things I don't like about defensive starmie, this game highlights how forretress is just so much easier to chip down and pick off than skarmory is. The dugtrio probably exempts this team from the category of "totally obsolete forretress balance" but I still think the team structure is extremely flawed and I think we would do well as a community to acknowledge that forre suittar (+no claydol) hasn't been good since before covid, and even then it wasn't that great.



Triangles vs skarpherim:
Another quick trading game for triangles. He played this one really nicely, but I just don't find it that interesting to talk about super short games like this. Sending machamp to die against starmie really made the most of a bad situation there. After a rough opening (somewhat self-inflicted, unless he really didn't have a better move for 16% snorlax), skarpherim made good use of his strong matchup to give himself flinch odds to win the game at the end.


Predictions:
Total record (last week):
6-4 (3-2)

Fruhdazi vs Prinz
I've had no luck betting on prinz so far this tournament. 2 games isn't such a sample size, but it's fair to say fruhdazi has looked better thus far. Alexander seems very well accustomed to playing with and against spikeless offense so if I'm fruhdazi here I probably bring skarmory. He uses it less than most but he's obviously capable with spikes and it's the tier's dominant style for a reason.


Mayo vs Mielke
Mielke is in the pool? And he wasn't drafted as a starter? Call me Marvin Gaye because I have no idea what is going on here. Mayo is quite good of course but Mielke is one of the tier's best young minds, and I expect big things from him in his spl debut.
You hate to see starters pulled after 2 weeks but it makes sense from the managers' perspective if you've drafted 2 players in the slot for cheap. I know river will have more opportunities to play this tour in adv (and she may be playing rby this week anyway. There is literally no way for me to find out) if she continues her results from the rest of the adv year, and I hope she can translate her success in other pokemon endeavors to the field of bo1 in the future (potentially later this year but I'm rooting for mielke to earn his roster spot :) )


Johnald vs Endill
Johnald impressed me more than endill in their respective week 1 losses, and endill impressed me more than johnald in their week 2 victories. I probably trust johnald more to not make a blatant mistake in this game, as endill has done twice so far this tournament, but I also trust endill more to find the most precise line or to pull the trigger at the exact right time. Should be an exciting game!


Triangles vs Zinc
I've had no luck predicting against Zinc thus far either, but Triangles is the best player in the pool in my opinion. He definitely has the ability to defeat himself in the builder and I hope we don't see that here. Zinc has avoided making any real mistakes thus far and made some pretty sweet plays too, but she'll need to step up her game to get a third win in this one.


Skarpherim vs Garay Oak
Garay is just the stronger pilot here and I expect him to be very comfortable in the types of position and matchup that Skarph likes, while also being very capable of taking Skarph away from his comfort zone. Of course this is pokemon and anything at all is possible, but if I were in skarpherim's camp I would have a hard time coming up with a gameplan that I felt confident in.
 
Hey, I'm back to give my thoughts on the Week 2 games.

river vs zinc
This game is fairly one-sided. I've used the kind of composition zinc brought many times before, often with Mence and Aero in the back (and I'd assume zinc had one of those here, or maybe Gyarados), and I think these teams are generally quite solid. You get a firm grip on the hazard game through Zap Cannon/Bug Forry, Claydol, and Wish support from Jirachi.

I've also experimented with the kind of team river brought, but it’s noticeably less flexible. Starmie has to do a lot of heavy lifting here, and it was facing a rough match-up between Forry and SuitTtar.

That said, match-up isn’t everything, and zinc displayed very strong control from start to finish. Some lower-key plays I really liked were bringing Forry in on an expected Ice Beam or Protect (avoiding Surf damage), then pivoting out after setting Spikes to keep it healthy enough to receive a Wish later.

On the other side, river got heavily punished by the Zap Cannon reveal instantly crippling Skarmory and then putting a ton of pressure on Starmie. After that sequence, there honestly wasn’t much room left to work with. I don’t really fault the Skarm staying in to Peck down Forry either, that line makes sense. The Starmie sequence is more questionable.

I think river took a slight risk in the builder here. The team just didn’t have much room to maneuver around what zinc brought, and the defensive Pert + defensive Mie core, while strong into offense, fell flat into a bulkier structure. Aero in the last slot doesn’t really help in that regard either. Not a bad team overall, just not the right one for this match-up; these things happen in Bo1s.

Fruh vs Garay Oak
Probably the game I was most looking forward to this season, and I think it delivered.

The first 10 turns are already excellent. You can see both players feeling each other out, scouting teams while trying to make incremental progress: Fruh blind-revealing Magneton on an expected Skarm turn 2, and Garay immediately getting Sand up by bringing Ttar in on that Magneton.

There were a lot of early turns I liked:
  • Turn 2: Fruh attempts to call the Spiker with a safe Magneton reveal
  • Turn 2: Garay anticipates that and, also not wanting to risk Forretress into a potential CM HP Fire Celebi, opts for Aero instead
  • Turn 3: Garay safely establishes Sand, clearly identifying this as the kind of match-up where it will be crucial (as it is for most Forry teams, but especially versus Cune/Celebi)
  • Turn 8: Garay finds a clean Forry entry, but still respects Fire Mence, or at least ensures Mence can’t grab a free DD, since Pert wouldn’t KO it and would take massive damage in return
It’s also worth noting on turn 4 that Garay is probably very relieved to see his Celebi both outspeed and take a comfortable amount from +1 Cune. This is the exact kind of match-up where CM IB Cune can spiral out of control quickly if your Celebi is slower.

On his end, Fruh managed to position Snorlax in a way that made trading it for two Pokémon very plausible, which is generally a great outcome in this type of match-up… if Garay’s last wasn't Gengar. Not only that, but a Gengar that ended up hard-countering the Lax entirely.

I really liked Garay’s switch into Pursuit Ttar on turn 16. It’s very reasonable to assume Metagross could be Pursuit to support Snorlax, and if it isn’t, it’s likely clicking Psychic or a burned Mash. Ttar is excellent into all of that, and successfully Pursuiting Meta opens the door wide for both Gengar and Aerodactyl.

Garay’s team is solid, but it’s also the kind of structure that can’t afford to loses too many pieces early while setting up its game plan (namely Spikes and Sand). He navigated the first 15 turns extremely well in that regard. Meanwhile, Fruh was essentially racing the clock against a Spikes Aero build, and honestly did a good job of it, if not for the specific Spikes/Aero/Gar combination.

I’m not entirely sure why Fruh chose to reveal Sub on Celebi on turn 22. There wasn’t much to gain unless he expected a hard Aero switch. Forry always has Boom or Bug to break the Sub anyway, and there’s no world where it clicks EQ there to catch Magneton. In the process, Fruh effectively revealed his hand and lost a valuable 25%.

From there, the game stays mostly straightforward, with both players making solid decisions until the pivotal moment on turn 38. My guess is that Fruh clicked Giga Drain expecting Garay to sack Pert or pivot Aero as a middle ground, letting him regain some HP. He likely didn’t expect a hard Gengar, which feels like a very high-value piece to risk. That said, Garay may have anticipated all of that and gone for it anyway; it’s hard to say, especially with neither timer even appearing that turn.

After that exchange, Garay cleanly sequences the endgame and closes it out, showing excellent maneuvering for the second week in a row. Fruh’s match-up was on the tougher end here, but he still played a solid game, and I have no doubt he’ll perform well for the rest of the season.

Prinz vs Johnald
I’m not entirely sure what to make of this one. It felt like there were very few meaningful interactions, with both players mostly leaving their Pokémon in to trade damage, weakening piece after piece while riding momentum all the way to the endgame.

The turn 10 crit is absolutely massive for Johnald. Without it, Jirachi likely dies to EQ. Instead, Prinz loses a lot of initiative while still having to deal with a healthy Jirachi. The Loom vs Zapdos exchange is just as punishing and effectively seals the game.

Not much else to add here.

Endill vs mayo
This one is honestly wild, and Endill really pulled out a win from nowhere.

I won’t dwell too much on the teams themselves: two fat builds leaning on SpikesDug to dismantle offense while relying on strong defensive cores to stay afloat. Both have their weaknesses, but that’s beside the point.

The big early swing comes on turn 13, when Zap Cannon (once again this tournament) immediately connects on the Skarm reveal and paralyzes it. From there, mayo manages to get Spikes up while denying Endill’s, with Forretress still sitting at a fairly healthy 58%.

For the next 20 turns, mayo is firmly in control, until Endill makes a play that looks questionable at first glance, but ends up saving the game: Spiking with a paralyzed Skarmory in front of Zapdos on turn 33. That layer is absolutely crucial, as it finally allows Endill to exert some pressure on Forretress and the rest of the team.

That momentum is nearly thrown away by the Starmie brainfart on turn 38. We’ve all been there... you can practically feel your body temperature spike as it happens.

Endill then finds an excellent Dugtrio switch on turn 41, catching Tyranitar on a double. From there, on turn 51, mayo realizes how dire the situation has become and goes for a Dug ditto (or possibly trying to catch Celebi), hoping to be faster, but it doesn’t pan out. At that point, Endill can more or less coast through the endgame.

I’ve mentioned this before on the forum, but mayo’s type of team is exactly why I like fitting Wish into these structures. Forry really needs occasional healing if it’s expected to both Spin and set Spikes, especially on slower defensive builds where you can’t easily accelerate the game. That weakness showed here: once Forry dropped below 60% with a single Spike up, maneuvering became extremely difficult.

Skarpherim vs Triangles
Much like Johnald vs Prinz, there isn’t a whole lot to dissect here. It’s two offensive teams trading blows until the endgame.

The decision everyone will (rightfully) question is Skarph choosing Hydro Pump to finish Snorlax when EQ was an extremely safe click. That single choice hands Triangles a ton of initiative for the endgame, which he then sequences cleanly.

Triangles opting for Machamp in a slot that’s usually Medicham is an interesting call. I’m not entirely sure why, as the team seems like it would really appreciate the extra punch Medi provides, but Machamp is cool, and so is big T (and maybe doesn't reveal the team right away after you an extra Pokemon or two?). As for Skarph’s team, there isn’t much to say: six solid mons with decent breaking power, but overall it felt pretty uninspired.

---

Last words: Hydro Pump counter so far: 14/18
 
Week 4 is up and 4 teams have made changes to their ADV slot so far this season, with 2 of the changes coming this week. Jabba and Kollin7 are now starting, with Prinz and Mayo taking a backseat or playing a different tier. Mielke and Pixie909 return to their starting lineups after debuting last week. Jabba is making his SPL return after 8 years* (his last playing season being in 2018 with the Tyrants but the last time he played ADV was in the 2017 season), whilst Kollin is making his SPL debut. What kind of teams will they use?

[RAI] Endill vs [TYR] Shitrock enjoyer
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [TIG] pixie909
[CLA] Garay oak vs [SCO] Triangles
[WOL] mielke vs [BIG] Johnald
[CRY] zinc vs [SHA] Kollin7
Endill vs Shitrock enjoyer
JabbaTheGriffin vs pixie909
Garay oak vs Triangles
mielke vs Johnald
zinc vs Kollin7
 
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Back at it again for w3! I expect this one to be shorter! I again provide screencaps of the most 'new' and interesting teams I see on the week, particularly when I expect them to see more shine in the near future.

fruhdazi vs Prinz
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Fruh brought something new. I like the idea of Cloy+Mag, which allows Cloy to more consistently Spin, not having to play against 3 layers, Tox Skarm, or even a living Skarmory, and it also means any member of the team (with Spe investment or boosting) can KO Skarmory before it becomes a problem. And you fit a water resist. He leads Zap to keep Sand off in the Sandless match-up, just long enough for Mag+Cloy to do their thing against stall (or offense). I think this kind of team is really better with Aero, but Fruh has a nice tech of a Lefties Protect Magneton to shore up the Zapdos (and Gengar) weaknesses of the team. He also has his favorite Light Screen Off Zap tech to chip in where he's cheating I like this, but I also wonder if Rest is a fair alternative on this kind of build, to chip in against slower teams. This team makes a lot of sense from a special defensive perspective, but it's frail on the physical side to opposing physical (set-up) threats. (The increasingly less common) Agility Metagross would have had a field day here, as might have (lead) DD Tar. DD (Brick) Mence should help against Tar, and with EQ, it can revenge Metagross from lower HP amounts, but it takes some doing. I can get behind Cloy supporting physical offense here and justifying the inclusion of Cloy by trading with threats and slowing down Swampert. With Spe investment, Cloy can boom Meta into Magneton trap, especially if it has TW. One of the subtleties here is that Surf Cloy (and the other members of the team) can bully Forre, and without EQ -- as they often are these days -- or Gengar Forre teams can't do anything back to Cloy+Mag. I have shied away from these slower comps with Zap+Tar as the primary SpD core, but I think these teams can still be successful from game to game. Watching the game, I wondered if he used the Grass+Slide Meta set I tinkered with a while back, as HP Grass can keep Pert from getting out of hand. I like the idea of it fitting here a lot.

Prinz brought kerts' old Jolt Spikes. I think it's been retrofitted with Agility Metagross, here. It has 3 special attacks on Gengar, with which I generally disagree. It makes sense for a team with Starmie as its best revenger to ask for more from its second best revenger, though, so it makes sense. I don't love relying on Gengar to lure Blissey in for a boom. As much as I don't care for ABR's version (with Regirock and Forre > Tar and Skarmory), I think that build is better equipped for the current meta than this version. I would have loved to have seen the Tyranitar set. I don't usually celebrate teams without proper bulky waters, and this case is not an exception to that rule. Gengar+Metagross can't run Sand, and while Gar can still be useful with Explosion, it's even worse vs Bliss. I'm not convinced of this team's solidity, and I don't think that swapping out a few mons is going to make a huge difference long term in the competitive viability of this team.

mayo vs mielke
I kind of understand what mayo was going for here, but I wonder if a few techs might raise the ceiling of her build. She brought a Lefties Mence, Lefties Off Pert, Mix Lax, Mix (HP Fire) Meta, and a Lefties Hera. Lax+Kou is a solid SpD core, as is Meta+Mence on the Def side, and Mence supports the build by revenging. Using Raikou next to Pert allows the team to switch a bit better in certain match-ups. Still, I think in 2025, if you aren't using something hyper offensive (like the odd lead Sub Roar Cune build with Zap+Cele Pass behind or houdini teams), you aren't doing yourself a favor dropping any kind of anti-Spikes philosophy. Against (the admittedly less common) Protect Skarmory, Fire Lax feels like a shoddy ersatz stopgap. I'm not convinced that a Sandless Spikeless trapless Passless build should be used without even Spin or cheesy elements (e.g. sleep, houdini, or hell, even just a CB somewhere) to compensate. These two have played each other extremely often and have cooked in the builder together, so I'm suspecting that this was a counterpick with mielke's tendencies in mind. I don't fully understand the concept, and I think maybe Hera is a touch out of place here. Or maybe it's the combination of Hera+Kou (though we've seen this Ojama team before), but I feel like it's just a bit too greedy, especially without something like a Salac Berry. I'm not going to make any more comments on a build I don't understand, since it's very possible mayo has found something I can't (yet) see, so onto mielke's team...

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I spoke with mielke about this build and asked if he was inspired by vapicuno's para spam build (with Snorlax>Registeel, TW Gyara, etc.), and he said he was disappointed to see that his independently constructed build was preceded by a vapicuno idea. Great minds think alike, I guess. This was my favorite build of the week. I think I prefer Snorlax in the Dugtrio stall match-up, but Registeel really destroys the more offensive tendencies of the tier of late -- while upholding them -- so it's a clever addition. The team plays around Skarmory intelligently, with TW spam, FP Hera, CB Meta, and a Sub Tar (to soak up attempts to Tox it and to abuse full para turns), while Registeel offers a lot more against Aero. Registeel adds a proper Claydol lure, too, which helps Tyranitar out, and it lures Gengar into eating Twave a decent amount of the time. Switching Hera in on Dol (and Subbing or threatening to) is enough to seriously punish a Claydol switching out, so Dol is enticed to boom, and Gar is lured by Hera. TW on Gyara does significantly hamper Gar and Aero, so the traditional weaknesses of this kind of build are limited. I'm glad we're seeing TW Gyara on more builds in SPL, since I feel it's maybe the best set at addressing Gyara's usually dead-end weaknesses while supporting the team (though there might be something to be said for HP Rock Gyara farming ill-prepped Aero builds), but I especially love the chutzpah to load it without Mag this time. Before I took my break, I was digging into Registeel+Gyara builds, and I suspect there is a bit more room for these kinds of builds, but the fully realized version is easily the most impressive team of the week.

Johnald vs Endill
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Stall sucks, and this is one of the reasons why: you bring all of the anti-offense walls, but still have to come up with offensive tools to beat other stall teams. They're trying to do the same to you, and when you pull the wrong match-up -- whether it's due to a(n uncommon) wall you can't break (e.g. often Rest Zap), a ghost, Mag(+Spin), a CBer, a bulky set-up mon, or some other odd threat I'm forgetting -- you can fall extremely flat. Both players brought ghosts. I loved Johnald's concept -- Sub Pass to ML Clops (and Dug), which can catch a player wrong-footed and grab a free KO against the likes of Blissey, assuming a team foregoes phasing. It's one of the weirder executions of Sub Pass that I've seen. Even with phasing, the mon is unhappy if it can't shrug off WoW. Triple Pressure, triple Rest, and Aroma gave Johnald his out this game, along with Endill leaving Taunt at home. I think Endill's prep was pretty close to a homerun, and if he got hax with Aero in the right moment or ran the more progressive HP Grass>Sleep Talk on Zapdos (which I think you can afford, given Aroma Bliss and friends) this would have been in the bag. Johnald played very well, and used his tools to sap Endill of his PP. I don't think we will see anyone other than Johnald (and the rare ideologically aligned individual) load this kind of build more generally, but the idea that Rest Sub Pass Zap and Clops could be paired might be enticing enough to trap another opponent in bo1. However, one of Clops and Zap must go should you want to fit Spikes here. I like Endill's build, too. It's weak to Pert (and CM Blissey), so I appreciate slotting Sleep Talk Zap here, and it's difficult to slot consistent phasing elsewhere, so I respect Roar instead of the likes of Toxic (or HP, Light Screen). Maybe an extra Toxic was to be desired here? Or another tool to break Blissey? I slotted Fear Jirachi in my attempt to build Missy Spikes for that reason, for what it's worth, although Dugtrio is a major pain in the ass in that event. I never liked Dug+Bliss against Skarm+ghost and friends, but it's possible that Dugtrio is good enough at removing Bliss counterplay that the right support system makes Seismic Toss+status (or just Bolt Beam) sweeping coverage? I don't envy Endill for challenging Johnald to a stall-off or Johnald for having to work his ass off to have a game against several mons that wall his team. In any event, I think Missy (and ghosts) are slept on and showed some of what they're capable of in this game. I'm fond of Endill's build, and think we should see more stuff like this.

S/o Clat with his 'Geneva Conventions' build.

triangles vs zinc
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triangles brought the same build as Garay did w1 into Johnald. I still think the team is clever, but suspicious, and it's amusing that we see another para spam mirror. zinc brought something that looks a lot like something Juke would load -- a lead Wak offense that aims to break Skarm early for physical offense in the back, usually with Focus Punch, I think. A bad t1 and not facing Skarm(Tar) meant that Wak wasn't doing quite as much. Mag obviously ate Registeel (which had Thunder?!!) up. Reminds me of the days when pkLeech and I were screwing around with a set we stole from pokology with Ice Punch and Thunder. Of course, we used Rest to loop Magneton and Heal Bell Dragonite to wake it. Anyway, we're looking at the standard Registeel Sandless 5, with what is probably also Curse 3 Lax (assuming it must have Sball on this Gar weak build and strongly craves something extra for Skarmory, but generally consistent). With two Dol/Gon lures in Registeel and Marowak, I think this team might have faired better with a Penguin Mence -- or even a Sub Mence, funnily enough. I think this team would benefit from DD Blast Mence, too, though, and running Toxic+Twave>Thunder+Counter on Steel to better pressure ground types (including Pert) for DD Mence while keeping Celebi out of your face. I do think Thunder is a cute addition, and I like the 6. I just find it harder to offer an abbreviated analysis of a counter-meta vs counter-meta match-up, since the game is more complex. If there are weaknesses in zinc's team to be highlighted, they are that Cune has limited offensive support (with no Zap[/Gyara] lures) and maybe Marowak isn't better than Metagross, for example, in compressing support for Mence and Cune while bringing an easier pivot. To be clear, I do love zinc's approach and think that this style should see more play.

Blaise (pixie909) vs Garay oak
Blaise brought a team I've only seen Triangles and the legendary former captain of the Psychic Guardian's ML franchise (iykyk) spam. It's v4 with BKC Tar and Fear Jira>Dug. The 6 is playable for sure, with Jira solving Milo teams' Aero problems and providing a Skarm check (and lure) that is desirable. BKC Tar also chips in vs Skarmory and brings offense against slower teams, where it pretends to be the same kind of special check as Dugtrio, while also bringing the pain against SkarmPert. Imagine if Focus Punch landed more than once or crit the Flygon this game. The Skarm lure spam and Pert checking of Milo is a real value add to a well-constructed offensive game plan. However, this team sucks at tanking RNG and relies a fair amount on bulky pieces getting the match-up against a slower team. And of course, it has all of the standard boons and banes of v5, minus the long list Dugtrio brings, while putting Milo under Sand. I don't think this team is spammable, but it probably is a good bring into Garay Oak's usual fare. Garay brought ABR's legendary Missy superman into a Dug stall without Dug and didn't get crit by BKC Tar's FP. Whose anti-stall was better -- Blaise's FP Tar, or Garay's Gon+Missy? I think this game strongly favors Garay off of match-up, with CM Blissey and FP Tar being the primary options to break through, but ironically enough, the Sand made it difficult for Blissey to come in with layers down, and it ultimately was chucked into Missy's Mean Look+Perish Song without making (irreversable) progress. Suit Tar would have been a better fish here, but you can't really fault Blaise for bringing physical pressure when loading the team she did. These teams are not new, and neither is this match-up, so I won't really dig into it here. Congrats to Garay for his undefeated run so far. He's shown that he can hang with the best, even though building in this tier isn't his forte, and his picks have been up to the par. And congrats to Blaise on her first SPL start. Hopefully, her team can turn fortunes around, because we all know they are capable of more than what the results are. I don't think anyone can fault her for getting such an awful match-up off the blocks.

Pictographic:
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Fruhdazi vs Prinz:
I have to start out by saying I really like Fruhdazi's team. It's very similar to one of my most-used teams of the last couple years - my team has jolteon over zapdos and considerably less special defense on magneton (although leftovers with toxic protect is pretty non-negotiable). The theory is pretty much the same, being that toxic electric types are really good partners for physical offense, and cloyster is the optimal spiker on a team like this with its ability to come in on waters and potentially blow up on and leave alive a mon to set up on. Using light screen zapdos over jolteon leaves you stronger against suicune and especially offensive swampert but weaker against opposing zapdos and especially starmie, while the light screen can potentially help tyranitar and magneton absorb thunderbolts from zapdos and the spdef on magneton helps a lot with the starmie matchup. I liked considerable special attack on magneton, as it can be important to knock out skarmory after it's taken 20-30% in chip, but the way the game went this didn't matter that much (although it could be a different story had ttar connected a rock slide). The magneton spdef came up huge in the end and it looked like it would even have survived a hydro pump there. If you're going to forgo the speed control that jolteon offers then that is a huge deal. I also have lost a couple games to fire punch gengar because my magneton didn't live from around 85% and that could have easily come up in this game as well.
I'm also a fan of classic joltspikes and I think it was a good pick here by prinz. On paper jolteon + gengar + starmie should be a very very good matchup here - I think it was, but he made a couple missteps. Based on what we can see as of turn 15, gengar is clearly the key to the matchup, as it only needs a bit more chip on metagross, magneton, and tyranitar to cleanly sweep the team, and in addition it can take a single hit from any of those (maybe not metagross depending on the spread). Letting it take chip here is just a misunderstanding of the situation. Losing spikes isn't the end of the world, as he likely would have the opportunity to get at least one layer back later, and rapid spin is an incredibly high-risk play on that turn anyway, if fruhdazi's cloyster even has the move. Starmie would probably be a better choice here to either force a sac of cloyster or heavy chip onto one of gengar's remaining checks, or both. Just to note, I don't disagree really with the early ice punch on zapdos as at that point in the game you couldn't know that gengar is so important and it's also not super likely that fruhdazi will click thunderbolt there.


Mayo vs mielke:
Very zoomer teams from both, with registeel on the one side and firelax + kou on the other. Are zoomed techs really just stuff you would've seen in 2007? Regardless, this game shows what registeel can do when your opponent doesn't really know what to do about it. Trying to hydro pump it down dealing 25-30% with 80% accuracy is really not a great gameplan. I understand the objective there was to avoid counter and hp grass was very unexpected, so this isn't really a critique of mayo's play there, but registeel is a lot less threatening if you just trade down against it. Once it's at low hp it can't do much anymore, although the paralyzed snorlax does present it with a great opportunity to explode later.
Paraspam into double substitute is cool from mielke, with gyarados and hp grass registeel to take advantage of swampert.
Mayo's mixed offense with raikou doesn't wow me. Raikou is a pretty good addition, but the team seems a bit like a collection of big hitters with the hope that one of them just wins the game for you. The team just seems a little too focused on the stall matchup, and I can see it working out by catching dugtrio users in a blender or getting a timely sub with raikou to end the game early, but it just fell flat here against opposing offense.
As far as gameplay goes, I don't think mayo really made any huge mistakes aside from turn 28 which went unpunished. If mielke had clicked sub there the game was truly over, and if the plan was to sac mence anyway there's no reason not to go straight to it.


Endill vs johnald:
Not going to watch this again. Don't bring stall into johnald. This is his ideal situation: 0 need to take any risks, just play technically for 500 turns without mistakes. I think Endill could have won had he been more aggressive with aerodactyl or zapdos's roar, or gotten considerably lucky with either of those. I understand he probably thought misdreavus would just auto win any stall matchup, but unlike in garay's game that was clearly not the case here.


Triangles vs Zinc:
Triangles played this one very cleanly. The registeel sequence early on was especially nice - he pivots around it, decides what's ok to give up against it, and trades down without doing anything fancy. He has to start getting fancy against the very threatening marowak, and pivots around that nicely too. The crit was pretty lucky, but gyara probably would've survived a double edge (not without dropping into suicune range) and without too many threats remaining I think he would have the advantage the rest of the way. The non explosion snorlax perplexes me on this squad.
Mayo's team is neat, lead marowak isn't bad and the rest of the team seems well-suited to facilitate a suicune or ddmence endgame.


Pixie909 vs Garay Oak:
Here is the misdreavus vs stall performance that we've come to expect. Keeping spikes on the field forever and while blaise forfeited with 5 mons remaining, missy was on track to take out 4 of those (and it already knocked out the blissey earlier). Garay played this game very aggressively, which was necessary to not get run over by tyranitar. I like seeing that from stall users. Some of these are the classic stall scenarios where there's little pressure on the staller to get turns right while the other player can get hugely punished, but it's also important when using flygon that you keep ttar honest about clicking focus punch from time to time.
Blaise played fine. I guess staying in with unboosted blissey against misdreavus was a mistake, but the game is so far gone at that point that praying for a freeze + crit might truly be your best option. It was a really bad matchup, and one that you have to understand you're accepting when you load the team. Speaking of the team, in my opinion it is very boring and a bad pick into garay (who is, frankly speaking, a better pilot and very comfortable playing against stall). Not only that, it's just an uninspiring team to see during your spl debut. I hope she can mix it up a bit and bring some exciting zoomer technologies moving forward.


Big stall week, I guess. At least johnald's team was interesting. Anyway, on to the next one.

Overall record (last week):
10-5 (4-1)

Endill vs fruhdazi
I probably would have predicted for endill a couple weeks ago, but this week his team and play were uninspiring while I was very impressed by fruhdazi. I do think we'll see endill get his act together, and even the form he's displayed thus far this tournament hasn't been too bad, so this match is far from a foregone conclusion. I hope to see a classic spikes offense / tss matchup here, but I can't shake the feeling that this is the week fruhdazi busts out registeel endpert.


Jabba vs pixie909
Jabba is 100 years old and hasn't built an adv team since dinosaurs roamed the earth and sleep talk mechanics weren't correctly implemented. He might keel over and die at the sight of a charizard (or expect it to click belly drum).
He's a good player though and not to be underestimated. This may be the one matchup I will say that blaise is not well-served by preferring spikes balance, as Jabba has been winning against that most likely since before she was born.


Garay Oak vs Triangles
It's safe to say these are the two top players in the pool thus far, so I'm very excited for this matchup. I think Triangles is going to walk away with this one on matchup (not necessarily an automatic win, more like an unexpected tech that catches garay off guard), but if the game settles down 30 or 40 turns in with an even position I'll have to give the edge to garay.


mielke vs johnald
Mielke is a very crafty builder and I don't expect him to have a disadvantage here, especially against somebody who has pretty defined preferences like johnald. On top of that, I'll give mielke the edge as a pilot too, although his endgame technique is probably not as good.


Zinc vs kollin7
Wow, another player I think very highly of who wasn't drafted to be a starter. Kollin is an extremely solid player who has a good understanding of when to mix in novelties or innovations. It feels wrong to pick against Zinc for the 4th consecutive week as she's done nothing but play well, but I just have to give the edge to kollin here.
 
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