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Tournaments SPL XVII ADV Hype Thread
- Thread starter Endill
- Start date
Johnald vs zinc
Triangles vs mayo
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin
Triangles vs mayo
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin
Johnald vs zinc- closest matchup this week IMO. Coinflip giving to zinc whose teams have been more out of the box so far
Triangles vs mayo- picked against triangles last week. Probably will not do that again this season.
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke- another awesome matchup.
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin- I will still bold Garay every single time
Triangles vs mayo- picked against triangles last week. Probably will not do that again this season.
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke- another awesome matchup.
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin- I will still bold Garay every single time
[BIG] Johnald vs [CRY] zinc
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin
[BIG] Johnald vs [CRY] zinc - Too close to call, but this is a battle of ADVs most prolific new chef vs a fantastic Cryos kitchen. VERY excited for this MU.
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo - I love you Dad
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke - I reserve the right to change this if Mielke love Ayrton Senna more than Daz does
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill - Its great to see Blaise shine, and I'll be happy for her if she wins. Gotta go with my brother Endill here though, he has more reps at this level.
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin - How is Jabba even still alive at this point?
Edit: Mielke > Daz
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo - I love you Dad
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke - I reserve the right to change this if Mielke love Ayrton Senna more than Daz does
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill - Its great to see Blaise shine, and I'll be happy for her if she wins. Gotta go with my brother Endill here though, he has more reps at this level.
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin - How is Jabba even still alive at this point?
Edit: Mielke > Daz
Last edited:
Don't have much energy or time this week, so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Endill vs Fruhdazi:
Endill's prep was quite intelligent. SpD Wish Jira with HP Grass to hit (End) Pert and Hypno Gar to abuse Fruhdazi's use of Registeel (often without Pursuit) was sharp. I think I like this six with dual status Gengar, too, if you're using Hypnosis. I liked this comp at one point with Tect Jira to help get an easy advantage in the Aero mirror, allowing for more offensive sets elsewhere on the team (CB Tar in particular), but I think this version has more clever synergies.
I love this team. Mix Mence Spikes hasn't been in vogue for a while, and I think part of it has to do with the polarization of the tier between the most offensive and defensive of builds. There is U6, and of course, Clat's SpD Jira+Mence Spikes build saw some play, but there haven't been many new Mix Mence Spikes builds in the last few years at this level. What Fruhdazi does here very convincingly is slot Mence with End Pert AND Pursuit Tar AND Rapid Spin. Very often, Pursuit Tar is a pace mismatch on offense teams, and I would argue Mix Mence is also far slower than DD Mence on a momentum-oriented build, and using a slot on Rapid Spin without any mon to meaningfully benefit from it (like Registeel, Blissey, Suicune, etc.) isn't always optimal. Mix Mence isn't a notably worse Pokemon than before, but I think people are just not interested in loading Tar/[Skarm+Dol or Forre+1]/Mence so much, because the usual SpD mon on these builds is Blissey, which has been found to be better without Sand and on more defensively slanted builds. Pursuit Tar instead of an extra SpD mon makes a lot of sense here, since half of the team really doesn't like Gengar, and Pert is also unhappy to switch into it. Dol helps, too, but as we saw, Gar still had a free hand this game after clicking Hypnosis. The core of Steel+End Pert+Dol is documented at this point, but it's also possible that Off Pert is a good fit here. In any case, Roar Pert on TSS is a really strong pick. If Steel can TW a Gengar for Mence (Dol or Steel), the player is happy. There's also a nice synergy between paralysis and End Pert. It's hard to say Thief on Skarmory is the only option here, since it isn't supporting anything offensively, but it brings an extra Skarm beat-down factor and allows Pert to break through it more easily. And Claydol makes the most sense here to bulk out the defensive core. It's also the rare SkarmDol TSS that slots a water type (well) and fits pressure into Swampert (with Tox Steel, also pressuring Blissey? Maybe HP Grass Tar? and HP Grass Mence). Instant classic team.
Mielke vs Johnald:
Mielke's team is a curiosity. It's clear he's been high on TW Gyara. I think there's a synergy between the TW spam and Spore, since all mons that will want to eat a TW from Registeel hate switching into Breloom, bar Claydol and Celebi who can be abused by other team members, and no mon wants to eat a TW from Gyarados, and those who can are likewise abused by Suit Tar and Breloom. I liked the synergy between Loom and Gyara, and I think Mielke is onto something with Suit Tar, Gyara, and Breloom as a combination. Maybe it's only this comp that can pull it off so well? Gyarados as the only bulky water has always concerned me -- even moreso with (unsupported, even) Agility (Slide) Metagross in vogue in recent years -- but if there is a way of doing that, it's with Registeel and TW spam. I really love this comp. I don't know if Gyarados is really making a comeback, but I have to say that Mielke has brought some really interesting takes on it that could be significant in the near future.
Johnald's team looks like something that is worse vs Spin stall. I think it's CM Blissey here. I don't hate it -- I big 4 always good to be at least a B-tier archetype, whatever the metagame -- but these grounded, Spinless, Blissey TSS's should probably fit some other broken mon in the Zap slot (like Rest Zap) to ensure that Blissey isn't just getting overloaded. I like how it fits BKC Tar and Mix Mence next to an offensive Blissey, and I absolutely love how there's a Zapdos to help against Pert, Skarm, and Gengar and to chip Tar for Blissey.
The rest:
Zinc's build vs Kollin isn't for me. I feel like some of the techs were a little asynergistic, with Agility Meta unsupported against SkarmPert and the whole team being Spikes weak. Only Prinz has loaded spinless spec off this SPL, and I think it's safe to say that this approach is dated. I'll caveat this by saying I haven't looked at this kind of build in a while, and I'm not particularly sympathetic to the team style, so it's possible I'm dismissing it here without giving it its due dilligence, but I don't think it's unfair to say Dugtrio (offense) has its downsides, and the approach chosen to patch them here is at least indirect in patching them. I wonder if the Jirachi is HP Grass last. Kollin brought Linear's six vs Golden Sun in SPL XII w1. Linear used a SpD Wish 3 Attacks (Bslam/Fire/Grass) Jira, a BKC Tar, and a Fire Blast Def Gon instead of Fire/Psy Jira, Sub Tar, and Sub Gon. And he used Off Star. I heard that Kollin's Flygon didn't have HP Bug. Not sure if this is true, though. I don't really get Off Gon, and I certainly don't love this kind of build with no true Zapdos switch-ins -- assuming his Jirachi was Modest Super (with bulk) -- but I can kind of understand how someone might think it's enough to pivot with Gon and co.
I didn't think Jabba vs Blaise or Garay Oak vs Triangles showed anything new or interesting in the team department. I messed around with something like what Jabba brought, but with Seed CM Celebi and Curse 3 Lax a few years back, and I thought it was a fun build, at least.
Endill vs Fruhdazi:
Endill's prep was quite intelligent. SpD Wish Jira with HP Grass to hit (End) Pert and Hypno Gar to abuse Fruhdazi's use of Registeel (often without Pursuit) was sharp. I think I like this six with dual status Gengar, too, if you're using Hypnosis. I liked this comp at one point with Tect Jira to help get an easy advantage in the Aero mirror, allowing for more offensive sets elsewhere on the team (CB Tar in particular), but I think this version has more clever synergies.
I love this team. Mix Mence Spikes hasn't been in vogue for a while, and I think part of it has to do with the polarization of the tier between the most offensive and defensive of builds. There is U6, and of course, Clat's SpD Jira+Mence Spikes build saw some play, but there haven't been many new Mix Mence Spikes builds in the last few years at this level. What Fruhdazi does here very convincingly is slot Mence with End Pert AND Pursuit Tar AND Rapid Spin. Very often, Pursuit Tar is a pace mismatch on offense teams, and I would argue Mix Mence is also far slower than DD Mence on a momentum-oriented build, and using a slot on Rapid Spin without any mon to meaningfully benefit from it (like Registeel, Blissey, Suicune, etc.) isn't always optimal. Mix Mence isn't a notably worse Pokemon than before, but I think people are just not interested in loading Tar/[Skarm+Dol or Forre+1]/Mence so much, because the usual SpD mon on these builds is Blissey, which has been found to be better without Sand and on more defensively slanted builds. Pursuit Tar instead of an extra SpD mon makes a lot of sense here, since half of the team really doesn't like Gengar, and Pert is also unhappy to switch into it. Dol helps, too, but as we saw, Gar still had a free hand this game after clicking Hypnosis. The core of Steel+End Pert+Dol is documented at this point, but it's also possible that Off Pert is a good fit here. In any case, Roar Pert on TSS is a really strong pick. If Steel can TW a Gengar for Mence (Dol or Steel), the player is happy. There's also a nice synergy between paralysis and End Pert. It's hard to say Thief on Skarmory is the only option here, since it isn't supporting anything offensively, but it brings an extra Skarm beat-down factor and allows Pert to break through it more easily. And Claydol makes the most sense here to bulk out the defensive core. It's also the rare SkarmDol TSS that slots a water type (well) and fits pressure into Swampert (with Tox Steel, also pressuring Blissey? Maybe HP Grass Tar? and HP Grass Mence). Instant classic team.
Mielke vs Johnald:
Mielke's team is a curiosity. It's clear he's been high on TW Gyara. I think there's a synergy between the TW spam and Spore, since all mons that will want to eat a TW from Registeel hate switching into Breloom, bar Claydol and Celebi who can be abused by other team members, and no mon wants to eat a TW from Gyarados, and those who can are likewise abused by Suit Tar and Breloom. I liked the synergy between Loom and Gyara, and I think Mielke is onto something with Suit Tar, Gyara, and Breloom as a combination. Maybe it's only this comp that can pull it off so well? Gyarados as the only bulky water has always concerned me -- even moreso with (unsupported, even) Agility (Slide) Metagross in vogue in recent years -- but if there is a way of doing that, it's with Registeel and TW spam. I really love this comp. I don't know if Gyarados is really making a comeback, but I have to say that Mielke has brought some really interesting takes on it that could be significant in the near future.
Johnald's team looks like something that is worse vs Spin stall. I think it's CM Blissey here. I don't hate it -- I big 4 always good to be at least a B-tier archetype, whatever the metagame -- but these grounded, Spinless, Blissey TSS's should probably fit some other broken mon in the Zap slot (like Rest Zap) to ensure that Blissey isn't just getting overloaded. I like how it fits BKC Tar and Mix Mence next to an offensive Blissey, and I absolutely love how there's a Zapdos to help against Pert, Skarm, and Gengar and to chip Tar for Blissey.
The rest:
Zinc's build vs Kollin isn't for me. I feel like some of the techs were a little asynergistic, with Agility Meta unsupported against SkarmPert and the whole team being Spikes weak. Only Prinz has loaded spinless spec off this SPL, and I think it's safe to say that this approach is dated. I'll caveat this by saying I haven't looked at this kind of build in a while, and I'm not particularly sympathetic to the team style, so it's possible I'm dismissing it here without giving it its due dilligence, but I don't think it's unfair to say Dugtrio (offense) has its downsides, and the approach chosen to patch them here is at least indirect in patching them. I wonder if the Jirachi is HP Grass last. Kollin brought Linear's six vs Golden Sun in SPL XII w1. Linear used a SpD Wish 3 Attacks (Bslam/Fire/Grass) Jira, a BKC Tar, and a Fire Blast Def Gon instead of Fire/Psy Jira, Sub Tar, and Sub Gon. And he used Off Star. I heard that Kollin's Flygon didn't have HP Bug. Not sure if this is true, though. I don't really get Off Gon, and I certainly don't love this kind of build with no true Zapdos switch-ins -- assuming his Jirachi was Modest Super (with bulk) -- but I can kind of understand how someone might think it's enough to pivot with Gon and co.
I didn't think Jabba vs Blaise or Garay Oak vs Triangles showed anything new or interesting in the team department. I messed around with something like what Jabba brought, but with Seed CM Celebi and Curse 3 Lax a few years back, and I thought it was a fun build, at least.
Endill vs fruhdazi:
The thing that stands out to me about this game is endill's decision to earthquake on turn 20. It's not like an objectively bad play, and more than anything I think he was just worried about getting pursuited after a pert sac, but at a fundamental level there's something so ugly about locking into a ground move with aero when you've got 3 spikes. I'm not saying claydol was obvious either but it is the worst possible turn you could have, probably, and claydol isn't totally unexpected here either. The claydol reaction being straight to gengar and click hypnosis is also pretty ugly. This sequence works out alright for him though, and while the game is still pretty messy I think endill is favored until he gets crit on turn 25. Leaving pert in here does seem like the right play, as even at very low hp it would be a big threat against fruhdazi's team. I'm not sure the possibility of salamence living pert's ice beam is super worth considering. After claydol got burned by jirachi I understand that he didn't predict a rapid spin there but this game is still very winnable even if he goes gengar on shadow ball, but it's over as soon as spikes are off the field.
I'm not really impressed by either of these teams. I like how fruhdazi's asks his opponent to trade a lot of skarm hp early against registeel and then reveals spin later, but it seems like it could easily fall victim to the common suittar dilemma of "something has gone wrong and now my whole game falls apart". That something in this game was hypnogar, but there are a dozen reasons why a suittar trap can fail with 3 spikes down. Endill's team is alright, jirachi here has some minorly different strengths and weaknesses from blissey but is a momentum sink in much the same way. I really prefer an offensive mon in that slot, but having a dedicated defender there does open up your tyranitar set to be more aggressive. Hypnogar is underutilized and has been forever.
Jabba vs Pixie909:
Jabba really displays some of the difficulties with using mixed offense here. When your blissey answer, your tyranitar answer, and your most effective breaker are all the same pokemon, it's really hard to make progress without sliding farther back. Case in point, Jabba gets huge value out of the metagross, but its hp just gets too low to fight blissey 1 on 1. This might be ok if the blissey weren't packing hp grass for the swampert, but it was, and Jabba pretty much had to lose everything against it that could possibly stop tar. On top of that, blissey's longevity in spikeless games just meant it could keep coming back in forever. This was also BKC's platonic ideal of a snorlax game - it gets chipped by spikes, small attacks, and sand before needing to blow up on skarm, not accomplishing much along the way. I don't have too much to say about the way Blaise played it, and I don't think either player really made too many mistakes, although I'm a little miffed that in my predictions I said Jabba would be good against standard spikes and then he decided to bring snorlax mixoff. Really hurting my credibility there.
Blaise's team is cool, I like starmie + claydol in the way it asks your opponent to respect starmie as a spinner (which it's not really good at) while being free to run a 3 atks recover set. CM fire grass blissey fits well here and obviously had a really good matchup.
Triangles vs Garay Oak:
Kind of a lame game, triangles gets really lucky but he did at least make a cool play or two. The ice beam as Garay tried to pivot suicune around to get more leftovers was pretty heads-up, as cune could've been an issue if it got a rest off. This is probably also the first spl game in the 3 or 4 years where freeze clause has been in the game where it's actually activated, so that's something. Still 0% on changing the outcome of a game I suppose.
Johnald vs mielke:
Both players played this well in my opinion, even though mielke made some kind of incomprehensible plays with claydol. SD Breloom was one of only a couple mons that had a chance there in the end, and by my estimation it was favored, although johnald may have had a trick up his sleeve.
Mielke's team is pretty cool, with registeel playing a nice backup to metagross and freeing up its item slot for a choice band. This also creates a lot of organic pressure on skarmory, which is nice for back claydol (similar to fruhdazi's team from earlier, but this isn't really anything novel for zoomers in the loop). Johnald's team is just a classic 'pick six [Nwosu] from the top ten of the vr' type team which is not too interesting to talk about. I always like the strategy of bringing low-variance balance though. It looks a little weak into stall but I kinda doubt anybody is going to stall into him after seeing cursetrap clops pp stall in the scout.
Kollin vs Zinc:
I'm gonna have to start bolding zinc soon. I'm a big believer in wins where I don't see anything special going on, and this is another one of those from her. I wonder if going suicune first is a mistake at the end there - it would depend on what rolls flygon has against celebi and suicune, but I think that if kollin had sent tyranitar it could have chipped or ko'd the suicune and prepared the flygon to sweep. There are a lot of possibilities even in this pretty clearly-defined endgame.
I like how the offense of kollin's team works. Spikes+gengar+superrachi+starmie is about as good as it gets on the special side, and on top of that subpunch tar and superrachi pave the way for sub3atks gon pretty well too. With all that offense comes a tradeoff though, and that's that it's really hard to switch into things. After skarm goes down the whole team really gets 1v1d by agility metagross, and wisping a metagross with gengar just isn't a great plan to have. I don't really love zinc's team, but at least it doesn't seem all-in on dugtrio trapping blissey. Honestly I hope it's toxic mixzap and the dugtrio doesn't have any bulk. It does look like one of those lame weak fat dugs based on the ttar interaction though. Both of these teams are pretty weak against aero, and subgon should've been very nice against Zinc here but kollin was just put on the back foot a bit too much.
Alright, time for predictions. I promise I don't know whether any games have been played yet... I'll try to get these done earlier next week.
Total (last week):
12-8 (2-3)
Johnald vs Zinc
Aagghh. The two players I've been wrongly picking against the most. They play similarly in a way - neither are very flashy, just solid and mostly mistake-free gameplay. I'm taking Zinc here as there's a big enough sample size for me to be very impressed so far this season. Johnald has been just a hair lower, so I think this will be a close one, and with the way they've both been playing it should be a long (or at least stable) one as well.
Triangles vs Mayo
Triangles didn't play his best last week. I expect a return to form, but I think even a subpar game from his standards should be enough for a win here. Mayo just hasn't been spectacular this season. I have seen plenty of SPL turnarounds and collapses and in no way am I saying this is a foregone conclusion, but this is one of the more lopsided matchups the pool has to offer.
Fruhdazi vs mielke
I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that these are the two most influential builders right now, so I'm excited to see what they can do here. I'm sure this will be an unpopular prediction but I think I've liked mielke's two games more than fruhdazi's four, especially with the odds mielke have himself to win at the end last week. This is probably the highest likelihood of a registeel mirror match that we'll have all season, which I'm not really looking forward to. Sounds a bit too much like rby chansey. Maybe we can see curse rest rollout or something. I guess that just loses to counter worse than almost anything else.
Pixie909 vs Endill
Blaise has played calm, good, solid adv in her two matches and I hate to say it but Endill has made some kind of large error in every game he's played thus far. He's a great player but I need to see him prove it in the next couple weeks if I'm going to start bolding him again. Endill is also one of the players in the pool I'd be happiest bringing standard spikes into, and that should play into Blaise's comfort zone well.
Garay Oak vs Jabba
Garay's just played great adv so far in this tournament, and he's already gone a very respectable 1-1 against the consensus top 2 in the pool. Frankly, I'm not sure there's anybody left in his schedule who I'd take over him. Jabba played alright last week, but his team choice left a bit to be desired. He'll have to prep a bit better to win this one, but Garay isn't exactly an easy guy to prep for either.
The thing that stands out to me about this game is endill's decision to earthquake on turn 20. It's not like an objectively bad play, and more than anything I think he was just worried about getting pursuited after a pert sac, but at a fundamental level there's something so ugly about locking into a ground move with aero when you've got 3 spikes. I'm not saying claydol was obvious either but it is the worst possible turn you could have, probably, and claydol isn't totally unexpected here either. The claydol reaction being straight to gengar and click hypnosis is also pretty ugly. This sequence works out alright for him though, and while the game is still pretty messy I think endill is favored until he gets crit on turn 25. Leaving pert in here does seem like the right play, as even at very low hp it would be a big threat against fruhdazi's team. I'm not sure the possibility of salamence living pert's ice beam is super worth considering. After claydol got burned by jirachi I understand that he didn't predict a rapid spin there but this game is still very winnable even if he goes gengar on shadow ball, but it's over as soon as spikes are off the field.
I'm not really impressed by either of these teams. I like how fruhdazi's asks his opponent to trade a lot of skarm hp early against registeel and then reveals spin later, but it seems like it could easily fall victim to the common suittar dilemma of "something has gone wrong and now my whole game falls apart". That something in this game was hypnogar, but there are a dozen reasons why a suittar trap can fail with 3 spikes down. Endill's team is alright, jirachi here has some minorly different strengths and weaknesses from blissey but is a momentum sink in much the same way. I really prefer an offensive mon in that slot, but having a dedicated defender there does open up your tyranitar set to be more aggressive. Hypnogar is underutilized and has been forever.
Jabba vs Pixie909:
Jabba really displays some of the difficulties with using mixed offense here. When your blissey answer, your tyranitar answer, and your most effective breaker are all the same pokemon, it's really hard to make progress without sliding farther back. Case in point, Jabba gets huge value out of the metagross, but its hp just gets too low to fight blissey 1 on 1. This might be ok if the blissey weren't packing hp grass for the swampert, but it was, and Jabba pretty much had to lose everything against it that could possibly stop tar. On top of that, blissey's longevity in spikeless games just meant it could keep coming back in forever. This was also BKC's platonic ideal of a snorlax game - it gets chipped by spikes, small attacks, and sand before needing to blow up on skarm, not accomplishing much along the way. I don't have too much to say about the way Blaise played it, and I don't think either player really made too many mistakes, although I'm a little miffed that in my predictions I said Jabba would be good against standard spikes and then he decided to bring snorlax mixoff. Really hurting my credibility there.
Blaise's team is cool, I like starmie + claydol in the way it asks your opponent to respect starmie as a spinner (which it's not really good at) while being free to run a 3 atks recover set. CM fire grass blissey fits well here and obviously had a really good matchup.
Triangles vs Garay Oak:
Kind of a lame game, triangles gets really lucky but he did at least make a cool play or two. The ice beam as Garay tried to pivot suicune around to get more leftovers was pretty heads-up, as cune could've been an issue if it got a rest off. This is probably also the first spl game in the 3 or 4 years where freeze clause has been in the game where it's actually activated, so that's something. Still 0% on changing the outcome of a game I suppose.
Johnald vs mielke:
Both players played this well in my opinion, even though mielke made some kind of incomprehensible plays with claydol. SD Breloom was one of only a couple mons that had a chance there in the end, and by my estimation it was favored, although johnald may have had a trick up his sleeve.
Mielke's team is pretty cool, with registeel playing a nice backup to metagross and freeing up its item slot for a choice band. This also creates a lot of organic pressure on skarmory, which is nice for back claydol (similar to fruhdazi's team from earlier, but this isn't really anything novel for zoomers in the loop). Johnald's team is just a classic 'pick six [Nwosu] from the top ten of the vr' type team which is not too interesting to talk about. I always like the strategy of bringing low-variance balance though. It looks a little weak into stall but I kinda doubt anybody is going to stall into him after seeing cursetrap clops pp stall in the scout.
Kollin vs Zinc:
I'm gonna have to start bolding zinc soon. I'm a big believer in wins where I don't see anything special going on, and this is another one of those from her. I wonder if going suicune first is a mistake at the end there - it would depend on what rolls flygon has against celebi and suicune, but I think that if kollin had sent tyranitar it could have chipped or ko'd the suicune and prepared the flygon to sweep. There are a lot of possibilities even in this pretty clearly-defined endgame.
I like how the offense of kollin's team works. Spikes+gengar+superrachi+starmie is about as good as it gets on the special side, and on top of that subpunch tar and superrachi pave the way for sub3atks gon pretty well too. With all that offense comes a tradeoff though, and that's that it's really hard to switch into things. After skarm goes down the whole team really gets 1v1d by agility metagross, and wisping a metagross with gengar just isn't a great plan to have. I don't really love zinc's team, but at least it doesn't seem all-in on dugtrio trapping blissey. Honestly I hope it's toxic mixzap and the dugtrio doesn't have any bulk. It does look like one of those lame weak fat dugs based on the ttar interaction though. Both of these teams are pretty weak against aero, and subgon should've been very nice against Zinc here but kollin was just put on the back foot a bit too much.
Alright, time for predictions. I promise I don't know whether any games have been played yet... I'll try to get these done earlier next week.
Total (last week):
12-8 (2-3)
Johnald vs Zinc
Aagghh. The two players I've been wrongly picking against the most. They play similarly in a way - neither are very flashy, just solid and mostly mistake-free gameplay. I'm taking Zinc here as there's a big enough sample size for me to be very impressed so far this season. Johnald has been just a hair lower, so I think this will be a close one, and with the way they've both been playing it should be a long (or at least stable) one as well.
Triangles vs Mayo
Triangles didn't play his best last week. I expect a return to form, but I think even a subpar game from his standards should be enough for a win here. Mayo just hasn't been spectacular this season. I have seen plenty of SPL turnarounds and collapses and in no way am I saying this is a foregone conclusion, but this is one of the more lopsided matchups the pool has to offer.
Fruhdazi vs mielke
I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that these are the two most influential builders right now, so I'm excited to see what they can do here. I'm sure this will be an unpopular prediction but I think I've liked mielke's two games more than fruhdazi's four, especially with the odds mielke have himself to win at the end last week. This is probably the highest likelihood of a registeel mirror match that we'll have all season, which I'm not really looking forward to. Sounds a bit too much like rby chansey. Maybe we can see curse rest rollout or something. I guess that just loses to counter worse than almost anything else.
Pixie909 vs Endill
Blaise has played calm, good, solid adv in her two matches and I hate to say it but Endill has made some kind of large error in every game he's played thus far. He's a great player but I need to see him prove it in the next couple weeks if I'm going to start bolding him again. Endill is also one of the players in the pool I'd be happiest bringing standard spikes into, and that should play into Blaise's comfort zone well.
Garay Oak vs Jabba
Garay's just played great adv so far in this tournament, and he's already gone a very respectable 1-1 against the consensus top 2 in the pool. Frankly, I'm not sure there's anybody left in his schedule who I'd take over him. Jabba played alright last week, but his team choice left a bit to be desired. He'll have to prep a bit better to win this one, but Garay isn't exactly an easy guy to prep for either.
SOMEHOW, CALLOUS HAS RETURNED. SPL ADV WEEK 4 FEATURING MR. INVITATIONAL HIMSELF. HYPEST GAMES YET? NOT CLICKBAIT? REAL? NO MISDREAVUS? ON CIF?