i was talking about this to dle and rad when they were in dc with me and we were talking about mafia
what's the endgame of mafia? what does the perfect group of mafia players look like?
well, they don't have perfect reads because then that means that they're playing scum wrong. but it means that EX ANTE TO DRAWING ALIGNMENT, each player is scumread day 1 with probability equal to whatever the baseline expectation chance of drawing scum
so if we're playing in a game with 3 scum 10 town, everyone gets called scum day 1 exactly 23% of the time. If you get called scum more or less than that, then that means that the other people trying to read you are miscalibrating their reads
suppose i'm in a game with someone like laurel who i always scumread, right. well, over 100 games, if i call laurel scum 100 times just because i don't like the way he plays, then clearly i'm fucking insane and am doing a horrible job as town. how often should i scumread him? in equilibrium, 23%
of course we're not in equilibrium right now. but it's kind of interesting to think about this. because one outcome of going thru this motion is that you understand that you can't be townread all the time. if you do get townread all the time, then everyone else is doing a shit job of reading you. and they calibrate eventually
so you can't change how often you get scumread. what can you change? well, you can change what alignment you are when you do get scumread. would you prefer to be always read correctly (be IC when town, instalynched when scum)? would you prefer to have an excellent scumgame--in this scenario, that comes at the cost of a bad town game.