Oh look, polls show no significant change in support. It's almost like big media corps are trying to write his campaign failing into existence despite him having a really loyal base... Hmmmmmm..............
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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread
- Thread starter MikeDawg
- Start date
Their point is that something that big media corps think should decrease support for Bernie, does in fact not affect said support at all. Your counterpoint makes sense if "no significant change in support" happens also in the case when something happens to Bernie that people frame positively but that isn't the case here.
I didn't say anything about winning the nomination in my post so uh lolz
My point was media corps are trying to make it seem like Bernie is tanking when he hasn't shown a hit in the polls as a result of the health situation. Basically what tjdass said.
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Anyways on a different note, Q3 fundraising numbers show some interesting changes from Q2:
-Bernie up ~7 mil from last quarter raising the most in the field and also having the most unique donors.
-Warren up ~5 mil from last quarter, at second place and solidifying her place in the top 3.
-Buttigieg down almost 6 mil from last quarter, where he raised the most money.
-Biden down ~6 mil from last quarter, coming at 4th in money raised in Q3. Allegedly his donors aren't too happy.
-Harris pretty stagnant, just barely decreasing her fundraising amount from last quarter.
-Yang up ~7 mil, a huge surge over his last showing in Q2, and possibly the biggest % increase in donations of any other candidate.
Graphic below (not all other candidates included but the top 6 are):
What do you think this says about the state of the race right now? Any patterns being showcased here? Thoughts?
Oh look, polls show no significant change in support. It's almost like big media corps are trying to write his campaign failing into existence despite him having a really loyal base... Hmmmmmm..............
Polls definitely show a significant dip for Bernie and a proportional surge for Warren from then to here. The health thing was a big thing in peoples minds - Could a 78 year old prove healthy enough to be president? And now that perception is shattered for those people, so they switched to Warren.
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Ok literally show me these polls. Link me lol.
EDIT:
I figured I'd show you some polls that show what I'm saying too, just to bolster my case:
Morning Consult:
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary-2/
Quinnipiac:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3643
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
It clearly shows on this map of poll averages that a huge dip started about October 2nd. I fluctuated slightly downwards about a day before, which is normal, but it took a huge dip right after the news of him having heart problems came out. There is nothing else that would have caused this dip other than the fact that he was literally in the hospital, because Warrens surge only started scalping Bernie voters after Oct 2nd. So it cannot be attributed to Warrens previous upward trend.
There is also Economist/YouGov polling that show among Dem primary voters that 66% of them think his health is a legitimate issue and 13% arent sure about it. How are you gonna win a primary if you just had a heart problem and that many people are either not sure or sure that your health is a legitimate issue? You are gonna be stuck at your 21% loyal supporters (who clearly arent as loyal as we thought according to the RCP polling average) and you will never be able to convince them that a 78 year old man with a heart issue is healthy enough to be president lol. So no, the media didnt "wite his campaign failing into existence". His future nonexistent campaign prospects come from an honest appraisal of the facts.
Also, how do you even media brainwash people into thinking that a 78 year old with a heart problem would be a bad choice for president? That like saying you can brainwash people into drinking water. Its just something they are going to think by themselves. Its not gonna matter what the media do or dont say.
It clearly shows on this map of poll averages that a huge dip started about October 2nd. I fluctuated slightly downwards about a day before, which is normal, but it took a huge dip right after the news of him having heart problems came out. There is nothing else that would have caused this dip other than the fact that he was literally in the hospital, because Warrens surge only started scalping Bernie voters after Oct 2nd. So it cannot be attributed to Warrens previous upward trend.
There is also Economist/YouGov polling that show among Dem primary voters that 66% of them think his health is a legitimate issue and 13% arent sure about it. How are you gonna win a primary if you just had a heart problem and that many people are either not sure or sure that your health is a legitimate issue? You are gonna be stuck at your 21% loyal supporters (who clearly arent as loyal as we thought according to the RCP polling average) and you will never be able to convince them that a 78 year old man with a heart issue is healthy enough to be president lol. So no, the media didnt "wite his campaign failing into existence". His future nonexistent campaign prospects come from an honest appraisal of the facts.
Also, how do you even media brainwash people into thinking that a 78 year old with a heart problem would be a bad choice for president? That like saying you can brainwash people into drinking water. Its just something they are going to think by themselves. Its not gonna matter what the media do or dont say.
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Also important to see in this post is that warren absorb's all of kamala's support as well, as kamala disappears into obscurity. Stay woke.
I cant handle these Bernie people on my own. I need MikeDawg back. I need the Batman to my Robin. Help me out, mods.
It looks like at least partially Warren's upwards trend can be attributed to her increase, but I see what you're saying with the average and the dip. Although it seems to be rebounding back, which if it does, shows that it wasn't really a dealbreaker.
But let me remind you that the top three on the democratic side are all in their 70s, and that Joe Biden hasn't really been a shining beacon of health either, with him having to cut his schedule back to disinclude nightly events earlier and with his physically obvious signs of old age.
Regardless about whether health is an issue people take into account though, the media has CONSISTENTLY been downplaying and writing poorly about his campaign.
There
are
lots
of
examples
Also are you really comparing water drinking to the media's influence on how people see the presidential race? Lol give me a break. Again, the three frontrunners are all in their 70s. People have their reasons of backing Bernie just as they do the other candidates. He isn't even my number one choice but the fact that people can really be out here saying it's done for him and he has no chance after he outraised everyone off of small dollar donations last quarter... It's like, lol ok. I think at this point it would be silly to write off any of the top three right now. Are there trends? Sure. But trends can fluctuate as they have been doing this whole race. Look at Kamala. Look at Warren. Look at Yang. All have seen major changes in their campaign support.
bruh aren't you the guy who said that the furry thread and the lgbt thread should be combined because "theyre both fetishes" lmao
I hope you get mikedawg back since your galaxy brain isn't able to take down these so called bernie ppl on its own : /
Any thoughts on who will run in trump's place?
Id vote for Romney. Friends with his granddaughter, just a great family altogether.
2-for-1 or riot.
Yikes.
I do think we're on route to elect Elizabeth Warren. I am concerned by that of course because she's a worse candidate, but REALLY because I do think she has a much worse match up against Trump than Bernie...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/technology/elizabeth-warren-facebook-ad.html
Thoughts? One of the reasons Warren's primary run has been so successful, imo, is her focus on her actual platforms and the primary, and not on the general election and Trump. This does fit in, I guess, with her platform re: facebook, but also seems to me to be one of her biggest moves yet that would make more sense if she were already the nominee.
Thoughts? One of the reasons Warren's primary run has been so successful, imo, is her focus on her actual platforms and the primary, and not on the general election and Trump. This does fit in, I guess, with her platform re: facebook, but also seems to me to be one of her biggest moves yet that would make more sense if she were already the nominee.
I see Romney as another Clinton. He has the experience to become POTUS but he'll never get there. I could see Charlie Baker running in 2024. I think he'd attract the majority of Americans that don't particularly lean hard one way or another and would likely beat any of the current democratic candidates if they won the election.
I do hope Bernie addresses his health issues when the question inevitably comes up during the debate. I think that while he's a great candidate, if he truly wants to remove Trump from office in 2020, he'll need to drop out and be an early endorsement of Warren. The longer he remains the more I worry his voters are going to shift to a candidate like Yang, who let's be real, is going to be in this race until the tail end.
I do hope Bernie addresses his health issues when the question inevitably comes up during the debate. I think that while he's a great candidate, if he truly wants to remove Trump from office in 2020, he'll need to drop out and be an early endorsement of Warren. The longer he remains the more I worry his voters are going to shift to a candidate like Yang, who let's be real, is going to be in this race until the tail end.
Im so bored. Lets see another debate. Or a racist gaff. Or anything, really.
Yang's doing great, but 538's live coverage hardly mentions him, and the 2 times it does, it's negative..... :thonk:
"doing great"
tbf he's actually doing well, he's taken off the gloves and is more aggressively pursuing time.