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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Who are your favorite candidates?

  • Kamala Harris

    Votes: 43 8.0%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 99 18.4%
  • Julián Castro

    Votes: 16 3.0%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 51 9.5%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand

    Votes: 7 1.3%
  • John Delaney

    Votes: 9 1.7%
  • Tulsi Gabbard

    Votes: 63 11.7%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 338 62.9%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 12 2.2%
  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 45 8.4%
  • Andrew Yang

    Votes: 112 20.9%
  • Cory Booker

    Votes: 7 1.3%
  • Marianne Williamson

    Votes: 19 3.5%
  • Mike Bloomberg

    Votes: 12 2.2%

  • Total voters
    537
My take on the debate:

The clear frontrunner to me was Marianne Williamson. Despite dropping a "dark psychic energy" out of context bait headline, she managed to answer every question with a clear answer, without resorting to dodging the question or by referencing Donald Trump. At the end of the debate she not only seemed to generate the second most amount of applause (only topped by Sanders ending rhetoric, which could be because the debate was over) as well as generating the most amount of google candidate searches after the debate (source). I see this debate as an ultimate win for a candidate polling at ~1% to stir that much buzz. I'm definitely looking forward to seeing what happens with this candidate, as although she can be criticized for not having succinctly laid out policy, that also happens to be one of her biggest strengths. It's hard for people to attack her like they can Warren ("I have a plan"), Sanders, Delaney, or any of the other candidates when her main drawing point is an entire shift of social culture.

The next few candidates that I think stood out were Warren and then Sanders. Both had their weak points but both also seemed to form together to combat the clear health care industry plant (Delaney and Tim Ryan) as well as having their own standout taglines they can espouse in the coming weeks (Sanders is already touting the "I wrote the damn bill" line that shut Ryan up real quick, and Warren's criticism of Delaney "I don't understand why we have a presidential candidate that is talking about things we can't achieve"). Sander's biggest flaw was as Deceit said: he never made a hardlined answer towards criticism of his policies. In particular I noted the line, when CNN asked "You wish to give illegal immigrants and refugees free health care and education, how does that not make every person want to travel to the United States and become a citizen?" and he deflected and dodged the question. I don't necessarily think it was the wrong move, because the question is a bait question by CNN, but it would have been more interesting to hear him rebut that in some way. I think the question itself had merit, as I don't personally believe that open borders is the ideal solution right now (long term it is absolutely the best way for society to progress but the United States simply cannot be expected to carry the burden of every refugee from Latin and South America, as well as Europe and elsewhere, and the load has to be distributed so as not to create further poverty). Warren stood out more than Sanders for this as her "I have a plan for that" is good press.

Bullock I think was another standout in that he made himself clearer thru the crowd although I don't see him going any further in debates. I think he displayed remarkable intelligence and geopolitical savvyness, but he doesn't have the same appeal that the other candidates do. In a crowd of politicians he doesn't really stand out compared to people like sanders, biden, warren, harris in any conceivable way, and for that reason I think he's gonna fade into the background. Definitely an intelligent voice and I would like to hear more from him in future debates, although he doesn't really have my support come election time, yet.

Pete I think was just standard typical neolib. When pressed upon any question he always had some way to spin it around to talk about Donald Trump. When asked what he would do to combat climate change, he responded with "climate change help is all theoretical. If you elect me, you will have a war veteran that will call Donald Trump out for dodging the draft with his bone spurs excuse" (paraphrased slightly, I don't have the exact transcript). He did have a really good response for the minimum wage question, quoting the bible and how "those who turn their back on the poor turn their back on their maker." I think he quoted Proverbs? Though my bible knowledge is not resolute in the slightest. It was an interesting angle to take and set him apart from the other neolibs like Delaney that I think did well. I still think he's leaning way too heavily into the "I will address Trump," angle, almost like he's doing his best to convince voters that he can, in fact, stand up to Trump come the presidential election. I think that to me shows an insecurity, or at least doubt that he can't actually compete and is more convincing voters to give him the CHANCE to compete.

The people I think were useless in the debate were Beto, Hickenlooper, and Klobuchar. They did nothing and were barely present, and didn't seem to actually gain any ground from this debate. I reckon they will be among the first few to drop out.

Possibly the worst dudes I saw were Tim Ryan and Delaney. both seemed to fail immensely hard on the health care angle, and while Democrat voters tend to support both a public and private option for health care both came off to me as apologizing and criticizing the progressive agendas, attempting to shift hte overton window more to the right and frame the democratic debate as something much less progressive. Delaney I think will definitely score points with the neolib anti-progressive agendas of the party but both failed to really set themselves up as anything standout.
 
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I think Williamson definitely took some ground, but I'm skeptical it's going to be enough to matter in the long run simply because she started out polling so low. She also strikes me as an easy candidate for the right to attack and push moderate and fence-sitting voters away from simply because of the fact that most of her "policies" seem nebulous and not particularly well-formed. I can't see her odd choice of words and quasi-religious language doing her many favors either, honestly. She talks a little bit like a video game character. Oh, and she's also apparently an antivaxxer, or at least permissive of antivax. I don't know if the right will be keen to use that against her but other Democratic candidates sure as hell will.

Sanders and Warren both amazing but honestly neither of them surprised me in any way, other than a little at Warren putting Delaney in a casket and burying him. Good riddance though, maybe he'll realize how outclassed and outgunned he is and drop out.

None of the rest of the candidates stood out to me, except Delaney, who as others have noted may be the most obnoxious human being on the face of the planet.
 
...then there was that point where Chris Matthews questioned Warren, if you consider dodging and shouting a defense I suppose.

you know why she didn't answer the question directly, right? he was begging for a soundbite as a form of gotcha! journalism that would be reverberated through fox news, conservative facebook memes, et al. ad infinitum. if she ever stated directly that taxes would rise, there would be no context provided. it is a bad faith question at its core. it would shut her idea down, despite the fact it is an active good for middle-class families. she repeats frequently that overall costs would go down because the point is that americans would not only have healthcare insurance, but more money in their pockets. this is a snare. if anything, he was shouting, and her defense is rooted in logic and pro-worker values. 'taxes going up' is meant to scare possible voters.
 
Really the only winner last night imo was Tulsi Gabbard. She didn’t do that great most of the night, but she called out Kamala’s record quite well. She also got the most google searches afterwords again, this time in all 50 states. I hope this will give her a boost to the third debate and drop Kamala’s support.

The only other winners are maybe Yang Booker and Inslee. They all had specific moments where they shined. That debate was a real shitshow though. Kamala and Biden arguing about healthcare was super frustrating, neither of them was arguing for Medicare for All, but they were both acting like Kamala was. Same for almost everyone else who chimes in.

Loved how Biden got dog piled though. Kamala and Booker and Castro and Inslee and De Blasio and Gillibrand all went after him and it was glorious. Hopefully, he’s going to start going down enough so other candidates, like Sanders and Warren, can pass him in the polls.
 
Wrote this list last night, not very committed to it:
  1. Booker
  2. Inslee
  3. Gabbard
  4. Gillibrand
  5. de Blasio
  6. Castro
  7. Yang
  8. Harris
  9. Biden
  10. Bennet
Booker was kind of meh, but always seemed to say something interesting.

Inslee was kind of meh, but solid, and did better at focusing on climate change this time.

Gabbard had the kind of debate where she benefited from no one caring to attack her, and landed serious blows on Harris.

I like Gillibrand whenever she’s speaking, but it never feels like it will actually do much for her.

De Blasio is mostly good at this, but can’t seem to help doing something cheesy at some point. No socialist. No socialist. You’re the socialist.

Castro was solid but not memorable.

Yang was uneven. Some answers I liked, some that seemed off.

Harris could’ve been worse, but she was just hammered at some points.

Biden couldn’t be mistaken for a corpse this time, so that’s something.

Bennet sounded drunk for about the first half, but wasn’t too bad when he suddenly sobered up.
 
Half of the CNN healthcare questions were phrased like insurance-industry boilerplate, but you also thought the New York Times in 1933 was a leftist paper, so I don't know what kind of reality-based evidence is gonna satisfy you
Clearly not even a glimpse of the false reality you're living in. Yea, the NYT's as it stands now has been a lot more left leaning (not sure where 1933 came from lol), I fully admit that, and Don Lemon's questions (especially the one pertaining to Trump's "racist" tweets) were not inpartial. CNN on the whole is such a biased network it's not even funny, which is not my main point of contention, where my issue with them comes from is them claiming to be objective and refusing to admit their haphazardly blatant bias. TYT is biased, Fox is biased, MSNBC is biased, 6ABC for instance is not, cool I suppose at least they acknowledge that as networks. CNN doesn't and that's what pisses me off. It's showed throughout a lot of these debates here and there; they haven't pressed many of the candidates, and they've given much more time to others candidates they prefer.
 
So uh... is Harris/her campaign gonna say anything to Tulsi besides "Assad apologist" or whatever defamatory things they're trying to sling at her to dodge any accountability for the bad record that was brought up?
I haven't watched the night 1 debates yet but honestly I think Harris was the biggest loser (although Biden was close). She performed really strongly in the last one but this time around when the expectations were high she avoided answering so many questions, tried to hijack Medicare for All (lol Kamala your plan is NOT Medicare for All, stop calling it that!!!), and had jabs at her that really exposed some concerning stuff.
At this point I think Biden was so expected to do poorly in the debates that that fact he was able to not mess up every single thing he said was a slight victory for him, which made him not-the-biggest-loser.
Yang definitely seemed to be the crowd favorite as almost everything he said was met with ROARING applause. He didn't really slip up either.
Tulsi did great and composed herself with good poise. Overall seemed very presidential although there were some moments I think she could have elaborated but didn't and instead went for the "I was a solider btw" insert.
Inslee I think did pretty well too! Although the commotion around him did detract a bit from that.
I think Booker came out a big winner even if in the beginning he sounded kinda "let's all get along" with no substance. At times he did come off as haughty although definitely not as haughty as Harris did.
Castro also did ok but like Inslee was lost in the commotion.
De Blasio had good moments but they were kinda overshadowed by the fact that the scandal regarding the murderer police officer came up and he had no justification for it.
Bennet surprisingly had some good moments but his overall composure is kinda weak especially in the knife fight that was debate night round 2. Maybe he would've done better in night 1.
Gillibrand at this point seems kinda irrelevant. She I think was a definite loser of that night.

And... I think that's everyone right?
Overall though the framing of the debates was very poorly done. I think there needs to be a serious overhaul in how we handle these debates and they shouldn't be left in charge to CNN. Have something more informational, perhaps more broken up? Less of a spectacle?
Idk, I'm just rambling at this point. TLDR the big takeaway from debate night 2 for me was "Kamala Harris is not fit for president, please drop out of the race"
 
One of Yang's issues is that, while he isn't an UNcharismatic person, he's not the sort of person who turn heads on a debate stage through force of personality, and he's not being given enough time to speak for his policies to pick up the slack. At this point, the people who like Yang are gonna keep liking him, and the people who don't give a shit about Yang aren't suddenly gonna start.
 
I know I fell off the face of the earth when it comes to this thread... April/May is the rush season for my other design hobby and it just hasn't stopped.

But Man, I was super proud of Bernie and Warren's performance. I know I've been critical of Warren before, but I think she made it crystal clear which side she's going to stand on. If she's going to make Bernie her VP, then I'm pretty impartial to which one winning.

Strategically, they look awesome coming together. Between her and Bernie, not only do they have non-overlapping bases that combined covers the vast majority of the democratic voting base, combined they already for exceed Biden, and compared to Harris or Biden, I think the they showed "this is what frontrunners looks like." America is ready for America's Dad, Bernie Sanders, and America's Mom, Liz Warren.

I'm fully aboard the Bernie/Warren whichever-way ticket. I even think that Corporate America should potentially even be more terrified of the idea of a Vice President Sanders-- because if Warren is in the Oval doing the work of governing, that means you got the most popular VP EVER 24/day/7/week/365/year on the campaign trail, rallying people on the streets of Democrats and Republicans dissident to president Warren's agenda. If McConnal is still there, Vice President Sanders will be campaigning for Liz' agenda every single month on the streets in Kentucky.

I also think it was great that Tulsi exposed Kamala's weakness. Biden will get his when he has to be on stage with Liz Warren talking about the bankruptcy bill. Tulsi's not going to be a serious contender anyway, but if she keeps building the base she has (which is again, not really overlapping with Bernie or Warren's) with Independents, Libertarians, Republicans (fucking Meghan McCain is coming around to Tulsi...), and then she endorses and campaigns for the Bernie/Warren ticket to get a cabinet position-- they're looking VERY good against Trump.

I'm sure none of this is orchestrated, but you can't look at the state of the board and see anything but that things are looking very, very good for the left. Seen as individual pieces, they struggle... but coming out of the second series of debate, with Bernie and Warren showing powerful solidarity, and Tulsi ripping down the most intelligent/competent neoliberal... imagining them in concert, and they come out of these second debates looking absolutely brilliant. Bravo!

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In particular I noted the line, when CNN asked "You wish to give illegal immigrants and refugees free health care and education, how does that not make every person want to travel to the United States and become a citizen?" and he deflected and dodged the question. I don't necessarily think it was the wrong move, because the question is a bait question by CNN, but it would have been more interesting to hear him rebut that in some way. I think the question itself had merit, as I don't personally believe that open borders is the ideal solution right now (long term it is absolutely the best way for society to progress but the United States simply cannot be expected to carry the burden of every refugee from Latin and South America, as well as Europe and elsewhere, and the load has to be distributed so as not to create further poverty). Warren stood out more than Sanders for this as her "I have a plan for that" is good press.

So Bernie's views on immigration are in some ways far left of the field and in others right of the field... In that he believes in eliminating the vulnerability of immigrants within the boarders, but believes in strong borders and limited immigration. On access to healthcare, education, social services, path to citizenship and even voting Bernie is far left in giving them to undocumented people, but there's going to be less coming in under a president Sanders than Castro or probably Warren. In the past (and I believe even now) he's been an advocate for rolling back migrant worker visas and overall restricting immigration-- you heard it in the debate too, when he answered "because we'll have strong border protections." I agree he didn't flesh out the reasoning, but he didn't mis-characterize his beliefs.

So what is the reasoning? I've never heard Bernie outline the reasoning for it anywhere, but I've heard Socialist professor Richard Wolf argue for a set of policies that are quite aligned with Bernie's-- strong boarders, but full access for all people in the boarders.


TLDR:
-Immigrants are a subsidy to employers, by inflating supply of labor which depresses prices (wages).
-Immigration has always increased or decreased based on policies decided on by politicians owned by the wealthy. They control the mechanism that sets the level of immigration.
-In particular, VULNERABLE labor (undocumented people) can be easily co-erced into awful conditions, which further subsidizes the employer and depresses wages.
-SO to prevent this from happening, you guarantee economic rights for EVERYONE. Healthcare, education, citizenship, housing, a decent income and opportunity to work.
-How will we make these services or pay for the projects that will employ all living in the boarders? We tax the rich.

The result: In these circumstances, increasing immigration does not deflate wage prices or standards of living for citizens. Instead new immigrants then represent new tax burden for the rich.



Summary

So instead of workers being obligated to fight poor immigrants or fight for their economic rights, it becomes the job of the bosses of the country to make sure that when they let anyone in, it's because they need more people and are willing to treat their new employees well.

Bernie's immigration policy is aimed at creating a stable market back home, that delivers economic justice for the people in the boarders... but only within the boarders.

Now, this position itself, this logic itself has its own moral quandries because it is ungracious to people outside the country. Spelled out, I think the American people will take issue from all sorts of angles (right and left, good and bad faith). It's definitely not even fully agreed on within Democratic Socialists, and there are people like AOC, more radical than Bernie and likely sympathetic to going straight to open boarders and international worker solidarity, without patience for what ultimately amounts to incrementalism within socialist thinking. That said, if you want the rationale for Bernie's views on immigration, this is probably what it is.

Frankly, I think that this type of incrementalism is required. I think Bernie ultimately believes in worker solidarity across boarders, and in one day executing a massive foreign aid program to help rebuild places around the world-- this is how he's outlined his views on foreign policy. But he is a man of the people under his democracy, and you can tell that Bernie prioritizes them... if you don't have the people on your side to begin with, you cannot do anything else; especially if like Bernie you believe so heavily in democracy. So his policies on immigration come from a socialist ideology, but have incrementalism inbedded-- you have to make the American workers wealthy and generous to the world, first get their mandate, before you can open the boarders or massively invest abroad.

Not fully laying it out in these terms, is probably a political calculation on Bernie's part. Bernie is an honest man, but in terms of academic explanation for what he believes, it often feels like he purposefully avoids it. But if you listen to tapes of young Bernie, or you listen to academic discussion between socialists elsewhere, you can learn the logic that doesn't get spelled out like a term paper from Sander's own lips.
 
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So going into the 3rd round of debates, I like many others want to see the field be dramatically decreased. Let me quickly go through who I'd like to stay and go with comments on their debate performance.


Stay:
1) Bernie Sanders - was absolutely awesome out there. Progressive internet has called him the outright winner, and even lots of mainstream voices. Freakin' Chris Selizard at CNN praised Bernie... mind blown. But as The Hill commented-- Bernie is winning because basically every single question in this entire primary can be summed up as "Do you Agree with Bernie?" and after watching him and Warren kill it, I'm sure much more of the American people will be answering "Yes."

2) Liz Warren - The other big winner of these debates. Together Liz and Bernie showed incredible solidarity, I think did much to unite their cause and their voters, and ultimately showed America "Don't see us as 2 and 3, see us as a combined #1 that is bigger in mission, bigger in vision, and bigger in poll #'s than Joe Biden". She showed herself clearly more presidential than Harris... at this point I can easily imagine a situation where this race becomes a race between Bernie and Warren, in which case the progressives will have already won.

3) Joe Biden - Joe obviously the front runner, and I agree with experts that he did more than enough to stay in it. I mean, he's still obviously slowed down a lot compared to 2012... the guy's age is catching up to him; he's not like Bernie or Trump, and you almost feel sorry watching the others tear into him. But I think it is tough for Booker and Harris to stick it to Joe without it coming off as vindictive, and the poll #'s don't reflect that Harris' attack last time has had lasting success. Obviously Joe will still be in it for a while.

4) Pete Buttegieg - While he kind of faded into the background, and it's going to be very hard for him to make in-roads into the double-digit club, his performance was good enough and had some memorable and compelling lines. The bottom of the barrel for the neoliberal/centrists but he should stick around.

5) Julian Castro - Has been doing well and frankly has the best input into the discussion on immigration. I was pretty stoked that a candidate talked about a Marshal plan for Latin America... while you can critique the original, just the idea of a massive mobilization for foreign aid in collaboration with Latin American leaders... it's a good idea, even if it's a further down the road one, and I hope the American people will contend with it.

6) Cory Booker - I'm not good with the guy who's taken the most from Wallstreet, but he's obviously earned his spot in this conversation for now.

7) Andrew Yang - as much as I've tuned out on Yang over his VAT and weirdness on M4All, he is speaking about important issues, he's a candidate for substance over drama, and ultimately an endorsement from Yang would go a long way in giving a candidate like Bernie the opportunity to win. (Though my guess is that the Yang Gang would dissolve instantly if Yang tried to endorse a Harris or a Warren that became the nominee...)

8) Kamala Harris - The #4 candidate obviously deserves to stay in, but after this big loss I wouldn't be surprised if she joined the single digit club and found herself battling against Pete and Booker for Oxygen. Her numbers were already going down into the debate, so to see Biden survive and Tulsi Bury her... I still think Kamala is the smartest and most savvy of the young neoliberals, but I think Elizabeth Warren's amazing presence and performance looms large over the prospects of Kamala or Pete (who share similar demographic bases).

9) Tulsi Gabbard - I don't think Tulsi will be in for the long haul, but she should still be around for September. We need to talk about foreign policy more, and Tulsi's strong voice and strong critiques of systems and fellow candidates deserves to be around a bit more. I'm hoping Tucker Carlson brings her on a couple more times, that she continues to grow in popularity with Republicans/Independents/Libertarians, and then that an endorsement by Tulsi of a progressive nominee will dramatically hurt Trump.


Drop Out:

Beto O'Rourke - Go home, run for the other Senate seat. You have a good shot at winning it now, and we need to flip as many of those seats to the Dems as we can. A D win in Texas would be historic. You got no chance at this Presidency this round.

Merriam Williamson - Merriam is an amazing person and I hope she becomes a significant thought leader of the left for ages to come-- I've become a big fan! I hope that when a progressive president turns to the issue of reparations, she'll be in the public psyche, and even visiting the oval office and halls of DC... but I don't think she's got the policy chops to serve in the role and the administration. As much as I've come to love seeing Merriam on Youtube, I don't think she needs to be in the future debates.

Inslee - Climate Change matters, but Bernie and others can handle it from here.

Others - I've kind of forgotten the rest, but we don't need any of them clearly.
 
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So apparently Tulsi Gabbard now has 146,000 unique donors, meaning she went up 30,000 donors after the debates (pays to be the #1 Googled I guess). Now she just needs to get over 2% in 3 more polls (she's already got 1 underneath her belt). Good luck to her; I still don't think she's got any shot at all at winning but if she keeps pulling in Republicans and Independents and people who voted Bernie but got triggered when he endorsed Hillary... I hope she'll be able to undercut Trump when she endorses Bernie. (If it's Kamala, Joe, or even Warren I think Tulsi's endorsement will meet jack shit--her fans will flee-- but if it's Bernie...). That is the primary reason I think Tulsi should stick around a bit more, a bit.
 
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"The trick of good leaders on the left, called Marxists if they have thought about all of the tradition... is that the difference between a Marxist and another is not whether they fight for reform, but HOW you fight for reforms. Do you do it as an end in itself, OR do you do it as a step and a stage to something fundamentally revolutionary-- and your belief in revolution is a belief that it's the only way to secure any reforms you get."--Richard Wolff

I was listening to a lecture by Wolff and when it came to this quote I thought WOW... this is the fundamental difference between Bernie and Warren. Are reforms an end in themselves? For Bernie, it's clearly no... he's fighting in a way to educate the American people to stand up and struggle. He won't call himself a Social Democrat, even if that's expedient to popularity. He won't avoid the word "revolution." Even if he's not trying to get rid of capitalism, he won't call himself a capitalist or even acknowledge the accomplishments of capitalism. He's a teacher, tricking the American people to engage in rediscovering their own lost tradition of democratic socialism, and teaching them how to use the wisdom of that tradition to struggle for greater democracy.

Warren and Gabbard are brilliant and critical politicians, but the above does not describe them.
 
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