270toWin

[Mubs]

[2:25 PM] Gross Sweep: There should be a contest in a smogoff thread to submit a map hard calling who wins what states and winner is who calls most states or electoral score closest to real thing

https://www.270towin.com/

 

[Theorymon]

This is a really pessimistic map, assuming there's fuckery going on with Pennisylvania mail in votes. Even then it looks bad for trump lol

 

[drampa's grandpa]

y'all assuming america will exist after Nov 3 lol

 

[Ununhexium]

 

[Plague von Karma]

 

[cookie]

ahhh fuck you beat me to it

 

[Celticpride]

My best guess

 

[EeveeTrainer]

 

[Ginger Princess]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=499d

better tool for making a map imo


Edit: Also, here is my map

Tilt blue texas may be a bit of a "lolwut" but hear me out: Texas currently has above 108% the votes they had in 2016, mostly coming from in person early voting, with 1/10th being from mail ins. These voting methods traditionally benefit Democrats. Texas' highest turnout rate, when looking at percentage of the Voter Age Population, was 44% in 2016, which is bottom 5 in the country, and the highest it ever had was 47%. A massive increase to this, which could be possible if Texas gains millions more on election day, would smash Texas' previous % voting rate, and therefore give Democrats a better shot, as traditionally more turnout is better for Democrats. Texas has more registered Democrats than Republicans, but this is only a recent change, and independents in Texas usually split to Republicans, so the first fact isn't usually relevant. However, in this election, independents polled have been more likely to split to Biden.

The polls only hold a 1% lead for Trump, which already could shift left in the normal Margin of Error, but honestly I don't think the polls have taken into account the unprecedented increase in voter turnout in Texas. Not to mention, Trump led by 12 in Texas in 2016, and only won by 9, which suggests an overestimation of Trump support in Texas.

However, regardless of what may happen, unpredictable shenanigans may throw this into contention, or if those 100k votes from Harris County are thrown out, that could affect things too. Who knows.

edit 2: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
also check out this link on data for early votes and mail ins. The good news is that most relevant states already have received a majority of their mail ins.

 

[Itchy]

Literally just me being safe (minus Texas lol)

Edit: Map is now in the post instead of being an attachment :)

 

[Golden009]

my map is just zam's with ME-2 whoops

blexas is inevitable, i think NC will get called early in the night and trump doesn't really have a path from there

 

[Ginger Princess]

Bit of a tangent, but I remember someone arguing that when Texas goes blue, Republicans may be more willing to let go of the electoral college, because it no longer benefits them.

Would be interesting. Maybe Democrats will suddenly be like 'Wait no the electoral college is good uwu' if they're going to win it every time

 

[EeveeTrainer]

Bit of a tangent, but I remember someone arguing that when Texas goes blue, Republicans may be more willing to let go of the electoral college, because it no longer benefits them.

Would be interesting. Maybe Democrats will suddenly be like 'Wait no the electoral college is good uwu' if they're going to win it every time

Texas will likely never become reliably “blue”; at best it would become like Florida, a large and diverse swing state. Obviously that is not good for the Republicans either, but I feel like the potential loss 38+ reliable red Texas electoral votes will eventually be balanced by the gradual erosion of the Democrats’ midwestern blue wall. Once reliably Democratic midwestern states like MN, WI, and MI no longer feel so safe, and traditional midwestern swing states like PA and OH seem to be trending redder than in the past.

 

[Bughouse]

The electoral college still fundamentally favors whatever party claims more rural voters, which is the GOP. It is hard to imagine a scenario where a national popular vote is more advantageous to them, since Ds have won nearly all popular votes recently, and frankly Ds could be running up the score even more if people just voted at higher rates in NY and California once they knew their votes actually mattered.

 

[Myzozoa]

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/6kK1p

gg noobs

 

[Sultan]

A bit optimistic, but YOLO.

 

[Mace]

It’s honestly just up to Florida imo. I think whoever wins that state wins the election.

 

[Adeleine]

when will every border state go blue and every other state go red for the prettiest electoral map ever

i like how my map is just myo's but trading arizona and ohio for florida. and not leaving that part of maine grey. and not doing leans.

 

[Caledrith]

The three states I think I might be wrong about are AZ, NC and MI.

 

[Ryota Mitarai]

I am good at this, I swear

 

[Ginger Princess]

hb this version

 

[Dece1t]

I think Trump will win 304-234. This election will be very tight no matter how you spin it. No one is going away with a landslide. However, I'd edge Trump ~55-45. Riots in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania (and here especially, Biden's comments on banning fracking) I think will give him the edge to squeak out the wins in those states, especially since there has been a clear distain for law enforcement and, in turn, mass destruction and looting to major cities. With that said though, the states that I feel have the highest likelihood of flipping (based of their statuses in my prediction) are: Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. All of these will be razor-thin margins. I also think the GOP will narrowly keep the Senate, but I have my doubts that they'll take back the House despite the possibility of making small gains.

(The only thing I would reasonably change on here, I think, is shifting New Mexico from Likely D to Lean D. The Latino vote is what affected a large swab of New Mexico voters last time, and Trump's approval amongst Latinos has shot up. Other than that, maybe shift Kansas to Likely R and North Carolina to Lean R as opposed to safe and tilt respectively).

Edit: If there's any states you feel could go a different way, let me know! I'd be happy to give my reasoning on my thought processes for any specific one.

 

[DTC]

Ah yes, FRACKING is a bigger issue to voters than COVID! Almost 100,000 cases per day and over 220,000 dead but I'm supposed to care about Biden... not wanting to ban fracking

 

[SPACE FORCE meeps]

mine

edit: va should be safe d

 

[Sultan]

As a Pennsylvanian living in a deeply red area, I can assure you that PA will flip blue (discounting the possibility of any extraconstitutional voter suppression bullshit). Joe Biden isn't anywhere near as reviled as Hillary Clinton was, and I have seen more Biden signs in my area than there were Hillary signs four years ago. Also keep in mind that Trump only won the state by a very slim margin, so Biden only needs to turn over a handful of voters to win the state. Also, fracking just isn't really a big issue in most of Pennsylvania.