(1:17:39 in)
Draft:
2,
3,
4,
1 (levitate),
2,
4
Hint: -
This is the "WR" draft, meaning that the old singles WR was 74 and this could extend to 77. Because of this going into the draft I have a slight bias towards longer term thinking rather than wanting to over-specialise for a hint. Basically, I'd rather lose on 71 or 72 than 73 or 74 if the reward is a boosted chance of 77.
2 is probably *slightly* overrated but its still a strong pick as the player can often either just use it to buffer out 2 physical sets, or sometimes to manipulate a setup. But its worth noting that without outrage or earthquake, it doesnt hit as hard as you would like.
3 is a contender for the worst set in the factory.
4 is good/average. It elevates itself above most grass types and its good spdef and speed prevent it from losing to most waters even on the switch. Beyond that, its shaky at best.
4 is decidedly average but has an unfortunate set of weaknesses; the tldr on that is that it loses to the most dangerous sets and wins against sets that most teams do not struggle with - making it a rare but sometimes important draft.
2 is dreadful although its better than
3.
1 isn't great but it has the best direct synergy with
.
1 is not reliable in terms of direct matchup wins though and its perhaps 3-4 tiers below the other 3
sets.
2 doesn't really want to lead but the lead is somewhat forced and with
1 in the back its more acceptable.
The only possible 3rd comes down to
vs
and there's no doubt that
is the better option. One of my soft rules for drafting is "dont be water weak" - and a lot of water types run ice coverage for
and would just beat
.
The fact that
4 is also sharing an ice weakness as well as the fact that its just slow (and sucker punch is unreliable) makes the decision easy.
A very realistic alternative was to lead
and going over this again I am really not sure if that would have been better or not. While
is a slightly worse lead, its an easier long-term decision in terms of "fixing" the team and making it stronger.
Playing this team is going to be harder than some may assume, because I will want to position the team around not losing to a random fire type if
drops, and also weighing up the best last mon option for
.
Team: 2/
1/
4
Battle 1:
4 /
4 /
3
is a terrible lead to see.
and
both (very likely) lose to it and
's 2hko would be a roll and accuracy-reliant.
It's important not to overreact in hindsight but this is maybe a point towards leading
.
2 is a special case as because its physical, a small DD setup may be viable. But the risk of staying in against Mag 1 or 4 is unacceptable.
3 is also a special case as it will 2hko
on the switch if it uses flash cannon, but it should favor using twave anyway.
On pure odds, the best play is to go
blindly.
reveals tbolt + damage (literally was a max roll from 252 modest) reveals mag4.
This is still "bad" and I did not fully consider the possibility that tbolt + flash cannon could 2hko
even with modest but clearly the absolute highest rolls make it possible. Leaf storm is not only 10% to miss, but another 9% from brightpowder and the 2HKO is not guaranteed even if both hit.
That said, the only viable option at this point is to leaf storm twice. Flash cannon does not get a super high roll and
does not miss.
next in against a -2 spatt
is
(!) which is also very concerning.
is at 2hp so "anything will kill" making the next move hard to predict, although sheer cold is not possible as it is not considered a regular damaging move.
is obviously not coming in, the main question is if it's worth saving a 2hp
for later at the cost of potentially risking a frz, water pulse confusion, etc on
(as well as the damage on
).
is fast enough that intuitively the answer feels like a "yes". The last pokemon is not steel or flying - and so leaf storm/ sludge bomb are likely to significantly contribute.
Air cutter reveals
4 which is definitely the worst set. If sheer cold hits now then the game is likely over. Sheer cold is the most likely move according to decomp analysis - at 62.5% compared to 37.5% ice beam.
Trick Room is an option here as the cost of getting 30% flinch is giving
a free outspeed on both
and
. TR adds considerable risk as it essentially forces
to win the 1v1, but Iron head + fire fang is not guaranteed to KO
and
2 + 2hp
isnt amazing odds for the final 2v1 anyway.
With hindsight I think this choice could be critized. After TR the chance of Sheer cold going off is around 13-14% factoring in all relevant luck (flinch - chance to be chosen - chance to miss). If sheer cold hits next turn, then the
decision doesnt matter.
4 goes for Sheer cold on the TR turn but does not hit it.
Even without Charti berry, rock slide would be a mistake. Iron head will cleanly 2hko even without investment.
flinches and the worst of the danger is now over. The next pokemon will come in under TR, but TR will have 2 turns left which is probably the perfect amount as levitate
is unlikely to die in a single turn.
comes in and the game is over, as no set will outspeed
and the endure set is simple to play around via an additional trick room.
Hint: Grass
Grass is the best type hint to see as its by far the least scariest to face.
4 is a lot better than
in general and the weakness to ground is honestly fine with
around. Again its a shame that
is locked into the lead slot.
Team: 2/
4/
4
Battle 2:
2 /
3 /
1/3
is an annoying unknown but unlike earlier, the belly drum set is harmless and instead the swagger and hypnosis sets (1/4) are a lot more annoying.
I nearly forget that
4 does not block
1 as its lax incense and not brightpowder.
The safest play by far is to go
as natural cure covers hypnosis and once it uses swagger, it will not swagger
again on the switch back.
even if
is lost to a crit ice beam, this is "ok" as I know the final 2 are both grass types which are likely to get bullied by
.
2 is revealed via dive, and this is an excellent setup opportunity for
. Although Hypnosis is annoying, I can safely wait for it while -2
uses dive.
The question of how many DD to take is mostly a question of greed. at +2
drops most of the factory with a neutral dragon claw (you'd need ~ 90/90+ bases to live). Grass types aren't really known for this kind of bulk and
probably forces its way through
/
/etc anyway.
I could go further but trying +3 or more does risk running into a hypnosis + perish song which - while it wont kill
- does deny the +2 attempt.
Another point in favor of the +2 is that I avoid more random dive chip damage / potential crit. A healthy +2
should beat a lot of the things it wont OHKO anyway.
After
drops to thunder fang,
comes out.
The "risk" of 5% miss on fire fang is worthless here (dclaw is almost identical damage). At 138hp
should be safe from anything but a crit. I just dclaw twice as set 3 is revealed.
(set 3 was probably the most likely due to its explosion winning most switch in checks).
Problem is, set 3 uses Trick Room. Explosion is now very likely at low HP, and I would rather keep a 138hp
around for an unknown final grass type.
4 is both likely to be least useful for the final matchup and also the mon that survives explosion. I switch.
does not boom immediately but instead zen headbutts.
there is no real need to stall TR when it probably benefits
, and explosion does enough that i would rather not get hit by it.
does not explode again (despite explosion being a ~90% chance to be selected)
Last in is
. If there is any risk at all of losing it would be to giving this thing overgrow. After Tri attack set 1/3 are revealed and the match is over (
always beats them)
Hint: Flying
4 comfortably outclasses both
sets, the team has no real need for speed, and
2 sucks.
Keeping
is not ideal for a flying trainer but the other options are worse, both short and long term.
Team: 2/
4/
4
Battle 3: (24iv)
4 /
4 /
4
24IV trainers are always mixed fortune. I don't have to scout, but set 4 is usually the deadliest set.
On paper,
2 can setup on
4. +1 Thunder fang will always KO (and dclaw probably would) after -1 brave bird recoil.
That said, its a needless risk. What if
crits, what if i get a 5% miss? It's not like +1
locks out the game anyway - i would still be forced out if something like
4 came in next.
I instead go to
which risklessly destroys
4 while taking barely 13%.
4 comes in which will always lock itself into specs focus blast. I know that the final pokemon is a flying type.
I could sack
here and force it to struggle on
2. In such a scenario I probably end up with a +6
at around 70-100hp alongside a 124hp
vs an unknown flying type.
I do not actually think this is the safest outcome compared to trying to preserve
(above ~60%HP or so). Any flying set with an accuracy item threatens to beat
with a single 10% proc.
That may seem like a niche list but it really is not;
4 and
4 could both threaten this and in that context 10% miss is quite a lot.
In hindsight a compromise probably works best: which would be to take
to +2 but not below ~130hp (enough to force
4 or
4 to get 2 misses).
All this planning is made irrelevant by the arrival of
4 which is a completely free win.
Hint: -
None of these are viable swaps.
Team: 2/
4/
4
Battle 4:
3 /
3 /
?
is not strong but the variance in how different its sets behave is tricky.
1 (belly drum) threatens to heavily punish a switch out, while
staying in against it is likely to freely create a 3v2.
Losing
to set 2 (ice beam) would be a huge loss though. It would be a lot better to go
there.
Set 3 (curse) only really matters in the context of playing around lum rest. This should be easy with any play pattern, except keeping
in after turn 1.
Set 4 is a slight annoyance but can be safely put to -2 attack or lower via
/
switching.
With a worse (or much stronger) team I probably take the risk and stay in. But with this team and this close to the record I do not want to place myself so far behind with a reckless 75% decision.
I decide that the threat of set 2 putting me behind is a lot worse than what anything else threatens (which is to just basically KO a single one of my pokemon).
comes in and it reveals curse (set 3). This is fine and
kills it.
comes in next and as usual its only the special
sets (3/4) that are threatening.
Sacking
is a real option and the one I ultimately decide on, as
does not have the bulk to accept any kind of bad luck - and if any bad luck happens to
then the game could immediately end.
Flamethrower reveals set3 which is the worst case scenario as it runs will o wisp.
Playing into more worst case scenarios, I would prefer to DD in the event of a burn since that at least leaves
open to 2hko
. I know the final pokemon is not a fire type, and the worst situation then (ground) can at least be forced to eat a dragon claw.
does not use Will-O-Wisp and
comes in.
Ideally I scout the
set, but there's absolutely no way I'd risk potentially losing to
4 (which 2hkos a slightly weakened
and can survive +0 dragon claw) or set 3 (which can ohko
with flamethrower).
Hint: -
Unknown
for
is a very real option. I do not mind running 2 4x ice weaknesses at all since this is a statistically unlikely weakness compared to running a bad/ questionable set (like
) (this applies even more with
as a pokemon that could cover something like
).
This would also "fix" the lead problem the team has, where I constantly want to rescue
from unknown turn 1s. With
and
in the back I can be a lot more aggressive.
The actual downside to
is not the type overlap but the speed. No
sets run any speed investment and while this still makes them strong, it reduces their situational impact in messier games.
In the end I stick with
. This was a close call though, and I think presented with the same option again I'd swap. Perhaps the fact that the next game would be WR made me bias more conservative.
Team: 2/
4/
4
Battle 5:
2 (download) /
2 /
1
is an uncomfortable lead. Set 3 (ice beam) scares me enough to want to go
almost no matter what.
can lose the 1v1 after the switch to other sets but it should at least knock
into kill range for the faster
/
.
After trick porygon actually dodges tbolt via the "tricked" brightpowder from
.
This rapidly transforms the situation from "fine" to "not ok" as
is faster and will 2hko from here.
The "smart" ai comes in and rescues the situation with an Arguably useless thunder wave, which is enough for
to close out the 1v1.
But (!) This is actually a mistake. the clearly better play is to go through
since
always drops to leaf storm and
is a lot less important.
comes in and low HP PRZ
is definitely a sack option.
This works fine as
is actually
2 setup fodder. I decide to simply boost until
enters crit range, and
scores the crit after only 3 attempts.
comes in and as mentioned, dragon claw is more optimal than either fang option, as if its the sash set then a 5% miss can turn into a loss.
2 here would punish the
mis-step on turn 3 if QC activates on
. To be clear, if i lost to this it would not be bad luck but a direct consequence of slightly suboptimal play.
1 is revealed instead which requires a QC + Crit to beat
and doesnt get it.
Hint: -
2 is not a good option to take due to how limiting it can be.
Team: 2/
4/
4
Battle 6:
3/
1/
2
is a clear
scout. As mentioned, physical
can safely be intimidate stalled to -3.
3 is revealed, which is fine outside of a random freeze.
takes it out.
is an unusual switch in (since its STABs and typical moveset do not hit mag hard) and heavily suggests a fire move (i.e. set 4).
4 would be a small issue due to its speed tie with
. There is a chance it is not
4 however and tbolt has a high chance to pay off.
1 is revealed instead. This guarantees that the final pokemon also has terrible moves into
.
I tri attack as its the least useful move and grudge is likely to strip the PP.
last is not a surprise and has no realistic shot.
Hint: Ground
Since its the last battle, i could throw Mag out for
1. This is the kneejerk reaction and somewhat incorrect as baiting ground moves is fine with
as a switch, and
actually beats quite a lot of ground types due to their secondary typing.
4 is also likely to be better than
against some "generic 3rd mon that isnt ground".
Getting rid of
for
is the better option mostly because of
,
and
. These 3 (along with Swampert) are the reason why ground is a scary type spec.
I am scared enough of
to take
. You may wonder "what would it do" and the answer is that grudge can strip outrage/ dragon claw pp, at which point
can return.
For this I do give up the option to leaf storm something like Swampert but I reason that 3/4 swampert sets are physical and can be largely switched around, and Swampert3 is something the team does actually stand a chance against, unlike
and
.
The
/
/
matchups still work without
since Dragon/steel is a good defensive pivot spam with intimidate. But if they come in later (after one or both of
/mag is out of action) then the game could end extremely quickly.
Team: 2/
4/
1
Battle 7:
3/
4
is a terrible lead to see because this
set, while jolly, does not run outrage.
Still it is a lot better that
appeared earlier in the match while the team is still equipped for it.
3 would be the worst result although
1 is also bad since it would require a DD to outspeed.
But whatever set it is,
can't stay in. I go
.
Set 3 (sash) is revealed and my hand is somewhat forced to stay in. Magneonze can flash cannon to bring this into dclaw range and its job is largely done.
crits aqua tail on the flash cannon which is annoying as it probably takes
out of action for later.
I decide that even aqua tail chip of
probably isnt worth it and stay in to flash cannon again.
comes out and unfortunately
is at such low HP that this could click almost any move, making it too risky to switch out.
goes down while getting off a signal beam.
is not low enough for me to have faith in dclaw/fire fang and i'd rather
not get hit by stone edge (this can happen via QC anyway) and i'd also rather preserve the intimidate as an option against the final mon.
comes in and finishes it off with sludge bomb.
comes out and is unlikely to win. Notably sludge bomb + fire fang is probably guaranteed, so there is no need to fall back on shock wave insurance against lax incense.
just directly wins this 1v1.
As a brief postmortem,
would also have been fine here with intimidate assistance. I don't regret the
swap, but its one of the closer calls in the run.
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(4IV/ Tier 2)
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(intimidate)
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and starting the battle 3-2 ahead sounds good
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1.
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1. This is a set that sudowoodo can beat, even if its hustle. Meanwhile 
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or special 
). Some tier 6 sets are very good but the variance is high)
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3. 
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4 appears then 
4 is not a threat to any team as it can be trivially pp stalled. 
isnt possible. 
and 
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4
4/ 
1/ 
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4 / 
4/ 
4/ 
3/ 
3/ 
?
2
?
1
2
4/ 
3
or 
2, 
2, 
3 / 
3 / 
4 / 
4/ 
1/ 
2
?
3 (soundproof)/ 
3/ 
3 (Guts)
1 / 
1
1/ 
2/ 
3 can't do that).
2/ 
2
1/ 
3 / 
3/ 
1
1/ 
4 / 
1/ 
