7* Raids & Other Assorted Events: Pikachu Rerun (7/12-25), Dondozo (7/26-8/8), Dragonite (8/23-9/1)

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OMG guys!!!!! Tiny Shiny with a Personality mark!!!!!!!! :pika::pika::pika:

(Full odds would be 1 / 3 Bllion)
 
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Probably not quite that high, the event has increased shiny odds for the outbreaks.
Yeah, I said “Full odds would be”

Here they’re massively reduced thanks to the event, Shiny Charm, and Power 3 Sparkling, Title and Teensy—

— but even so stoked to get this one!
 
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I'm just glad I can get my Toasted Marshmallow friend again. The fact that regional forms still can't be evolved outside their base games despite these outbreaks/spawns indicating they want them around irks me, especially Alola since those forms are from one-way transfers to Bank and thus you can't evolve catches from later games (where shiny hunting or the like are more accessible) into their regional variants/evolutions (I would so do it with the 7* Pikachu if I could).
 
Full paras aside, I brought back the cooler apple for Pikachu and didn't have much difficulty:

:sv/appletun:
Appletun @ Roseli Berry
Ability: irrelevant
Tera Type: Grass
EVs: 252 HP / 252 SpA / 4 Spe
Modest Nature
- Apple Acid
- Giga Drain
- Iron Defense
- Amnesia

I actually had Reflect in the last slot instead of Amnesia because I got lazy, so thanks AI Bellibolt for covering me. Roseli Berry makes the AI forget to use Play Rough, so Iron Defense and Amnesia should keep you covered on damage mitigation for the whole fight, and between Apple Acid and Giga Drain you do plenty of damage with no concern about fainting. I imagine there's a more optimized EV spread for the fight than 252/252, I just didn't want to spend extra resources on my apple. Hydrapple doesn't get Apple Acid, Iron Defense, or Amnesia.

I'll probably try out Appletun again when the Dondozo raid starts; it's pretty bulky and builds Tera quickly with Apple Acid, and sheds its Dragon type quickly when it Teras to avoid Outrage.
 
In hindsight I feel like this Pikachu is more or less about even with its previous incarnation, mainly on the bulk side because the 120% damage vs only 70% damage going through the shield makes up the 3000 HP difference and more with a 1.7x damage difference. Maybe the initial Thunders would be harder to survive for Azumarill and would still do more damage than SE Iron Tail, and this clear shows a bit of how that might look.

Firstly I want to shout out NR7/Nrom7 who has done the mentioned Tera Grass Azurill solo here at 12:30, and I learned that the Grass Tera Blast animation is actually pretty fast. I tried Fairy myself and can confirm Pikachu does go for Iron Tails pretty often, unless it can Surf to finish from the red.
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However I got mad at Pikachu resetting its debuffs at 65% HP and I wanted to complete the family with a final unique take, and so I brought back the Tera Fighting Marill from Eevee to Focus Punch OHKO another mascot. This would not be as easy without the super effective multiplier though, and it truly came down to the wire.
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AI notes: This got pretty messy after multiple attempts of testing. For a while I was running Umbreon/Clodsire/Sylveon but it wasn't really working out. I actually think Umbreon's Thunder Wave does not proc Lightning Rod behind the shield since I saw it spam it for a while while Pikachu was not poisoned, and poison can also get in the way of Synchronize though I didn't see Pikachu ever actually proc it on itself. Sylveon's Moonblast can help counteract the boost, though if too many Moonblasts go through Pikachu might go for Play Roughs. Arboliva would be really nice for Grassy Terrain microheals and Safeguard for early para protection. Mudsdale goes for Rock Smashes if it manages to use 10 High Horsepowers, which makes the required Defense drops much more reasonable to get. Gardevoir is helpful for Life Dew and potentially Synchronize. Bellibolt can Light Screen and control speed to let me get more moves in under lower accuracy.

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I rerolled once and got Umbreon/Bellibolt/Garganacl. Garganacl can also contribute to lowering speed with Rock Tomb, though Pikachu only needs to go to -2 to be outsped by Marill. I still ended up passing and looking for some healing/Mudsdale, as HP and defense drops were my main bottlenecks at this point.

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My next and final settled set was Arboliva/Haxorus/Mudsdale, with two big hitters I was looking for and managing to become the successful run on my first try with them. With Arboliva I could lighten the load on the health thresholds, though Pikachu missing it and not putting up Grassy Terrain also became an issue, and Mudsdale was also not guaranteed to use up PP if it died, so in general I still went for 6 Mud-Slaps for success. I think Mudsdale still died often though despite my efforts.
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In theory Marill's chance of death T1 from spread Surf + def cheer Thunder is not high but existent, usually requiring a top 4/16 Thunder damage roll. I actually forgot this was spread at first and was calculating a much higher chance of death. Generally I started off wanting to die T1 to be able to stack to +2 Defense cheers as well as an offense cheer, but then I realized Pikachu about 2HKOs anyway on life 2 regardless, though this could be avoided with Light Screen. Max SpD could work but then you can't die T1 to stack the defense cheers in the first place, but I guess you still save a turn which is the real reward. Like it's not ideal to spend 3 lives dying to 5 perfect Thunders in the worst case.

I found it works either way if I die T1 or not, the latter just saves a turn of rain but costs an extra cheer if I want to get to +2 defense cheers, which does run me out of all my cheers, so in a way I prefer the former if I have support to prevent the 2HKOs. I guess technically you could also stack 2 attack cheers but I didn't really take this into account until writing this now. Afterwards I generally planned around setting Mud-Slaps and cheers when I can before dying. Bellibolt's Light Screen can help to survive another turn on the second life by only getting 3HKO'd by Thunder after a defense cheer stack or two. Ironically I ran into an issue where Pikachu would try to finish me off with its imperfect accuracy Play Roughs or even Surfs when left at red HP and I couldn't actually end up dying.

0+ SpA Light Ball Tera Water Pikachu Surf vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Marill in Rain with spread damage: 80-94 (23.2 - 27.3%) -- 63.7% chance to 4HKO
0+ SpA Light Ball Tera Water Pikachu Thunder vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Marill through Def Cheer: 230-272 (66.8 - 79%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0+ SpA Light Ball Tera Water Pikachu Thunder vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Marill through Light Screen and Def Cheer: 153-181 (44.4 - 52.6%) -- 23.4% chance to 2HKO
0+ SpA Light Ball Tera Water Pikachu Thunder vs. +2 252 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Marill: 174-206 (50.5 - 59.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0+ SpA Light Ball Tera Water Pikachu Thunder vs. +2 252 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Marill through Light Screen: 116-137 (33.7 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(Marill has 344 HP and these last 2 add up to 343 which is neat.)

In the final attempt with Mudsdale, I lived T1 and put up the offense cheer on T2 while dying, then set Mud-Slap on T3 and the final defense cheer on T4. On the last turn of rain and the first of my 3rd life, I hit Mud-Slap while getting Thundered below half. I ended up setting up to max Mud-Slaps, then getting 2 Liquidation defense lowers in 3 moves before taking another death, but knew from all the past attempts I still had plenty of time to set up and make something happen.

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I got Thundered early to take me below half HP, but I was getting insane Liquidation luck into 3 and 4 Defense drops in 6 moves. Fortunately Arboliva's Seed Sower kicked in just in time on that last move just before the tremendous energy cutscene/10% time triggered, leaving me with a minute to act.

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With one last confirmed defense drop to see 5 and seeing Pikachu's health actually chipped down pretty hard very close to the 65% HP threshold, I went for Belly Drum and saw Mudsdale's first Rock Smash on that turn, hoping he won the coinflip but with no time to check. Looking back I don't think an animation played but it was fainted before that turn anyway so I'm not sure if it would have been visible.
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With my last input to finally terastallize, Marill still had to tighten its focus and survive through the next attack. Pikachu couldn't strike again with Thunder at -6 accuracy (21%), and Marill's focused punch landed true. Overall it goes to show once again Mud-Slap and raid AI (and the happy accident of cheer preservation/stacking) are very helpful to let you get away with a lot in raids if the circumstances enable it.

The chance of getting the 6 needed 20% Liquidation defense drops in X attempts is a binomial distribution, not accounting for Mudsdale finally getting going. On a failed earlier attempt I noticed I could barely fit in about 14 Liquidations with 3 deaths, so subtract 2 Liquidations for Belly Drum and Focus Punch once set up. That's about a 1.9% for all 6 within that time and about 7% for 5. In this attempt I made it in 5/7, which is a pretty fortunate 0.467%. I think a combination of getting hit, Grassy Terrain healing, and actually getting a viable run with defense drops might have slowed my pace down a bit as well.
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+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Fighting Marill Atk Cheer Focus Punch vs. -6 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu: 10105-11889 (95.7 - 112.6% of 50x hp boss) -- 75% chance to OHKO
+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Fighting Marill Atk Cheer Focus Punch vs. -5 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu: 8881-10449 (84.1 - 99% of 50x hp boss) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Accounting for the 70% same-tera shield damage, this kill actually did come down to all the chip damage making it possible, with the health being at about 70% and could have either been a successful -6 or a max roll -5. So I guess even Haxorus doing damage was helpful enough.

Also Tera Blast Grass would have 240 effective power compared to Focus Punch's 225, and is also boostable by Grassy Terrain. So technically Marill does have an actual OHKO route even with the shield in play from 100% HP and without DLC. I just did not want to build a new one, but maybe I would have if I went through all that and missed the actual OHKO.

+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Grass Marill Atk Cheer Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. -6 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu: 10778-12684 (102.1 - 120.2% of 50x hp boss) -- guaranteed OHKO
+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Grass Marill Atk Cheer Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. -5 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu: 9474-11148 (89.8 - 105.6% of 50x hp boss) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Grass Marill Atk Cheer Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. -6 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu in Grassy Terrain: 14012-16488 (132.8 - 156.2% of 50x hp boss) -- guaranteed OHKO
+6 252+ Atk Huge Power Tera Grass Marill Atk Cheer Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. -5 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Water Pikachu in Grassy Terrain: 12314-14490 (116.7 - 137.3% of 50x hp boss) -- guaranteed OHKO

When SV's era of support ends, I will appreciate these events for having something unique and reasonably difficult to return to the game to regularly in its lifespan, giving me the opportunity to make the entire Marill line their own champions by planning these gimmick ideas/self imposed challenges. The process of planning out and adapting the execution, all for the hope of the stars aligning and finding a path to victory for Azumarill somehow still satisfies me, perhaps because its viability ranges so wildly from being optimal to the opposite, yet still having the same core strategy. I feel like most of these 7 star raids manage to find this balance of appearing insurmountable as a blind challenge yet reasonably possible in a way that ingame battles don't get to be as tense with. Thank you game freak. :marill:
 
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252+ SpA Life Orb Hadron Engine Miraidon Atk Cheer charged Electro Drift (133.3251953125 BP) vs. -4 0 HP / 0 SpD Dondozo in Electric Terrain: 14228-16744 (107.5 - 126.5% of 30x hp boss) -- guaranteed OHKO

Miraidon OHKOs with 2 Metal Sounds, Charge, and Attack Cheer unless the AI chips it down below 70% HP for the shield to proc (blame Bellibolt). It has Unaware. Likes to Avalanche which doesn't get boosted but sometimes Earthquakes, based on 2 attempts.
 
Just won with Weepinbell support. He’s very good here.

Weepinbell @ Eviolite
252/0-/252+/0/4/0
Gastro Acid, Reflect, Acid Spray, Reflect

Can try to go slower maybe to not take extra damage from avalanche. Gastro Acid, because it is unaware.
 
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252+ SpA Life Orb Hadron Engine Miraidon Atk Cheer charged Electro Drift (133.3251953125 BP) vs. -4 0 HP / 0 SpD Dondozo in Electric Terrain: 14228-16744 (107.5 - 126.5% of 30x hp boss) -- guaranteed OHKO

Miraidon OHKOs with 2 Metal Sounds, Charge, and Attack Cheer unless the AI chips it down below 70% HP for the shield to proc (blame Bellibolt). It has Unaware. Likes to Avalanche which doesn't get boosted but sometimes Earthquakes, based on 2 attempts.
Seems like it should be even more efficient than Pikachu— if reliable? How easily does Miraidon pull it off?
 
Seems like it should be even more efficient than Pikachu— if reliable? How easily does Miraidon pull it off?

0+ Atk Dondozo Avalanche vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Miraidon: 96-114 (23.7 - 28.2%) -- 92.8% chance to 4HKO
0+ Atk Dondozo Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Miraidon: 158-188 (39.1 - 46.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(Technically 252 defense just makes you bulkier here.)

I haven't really tried much more, but I think the main issue is that you can't really take 4 hits of Earthquake in the worst case so you may want to lock in some attack dropping/healing AI (not Arboliva) if you're interested in farming. Otherwise there is plenty of time to get the needed moves in before the shield (I saw the 90% tera steal around move 4) and there's not much RNG other than missing Metal Sounds because Electric Terrain blocks Yawn.

EDIT: I forgot about the AI defense cheer so you're like 1.5x more tolerable after T1.
0+ Atk Dondozo Avalanche vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Miraidon through Def Cheer: 64-76 (15.8 - 18.8%) -- possible 6HKO
0+ Atk Dondozo Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Miraidon through Def Cheer: 106-126 (26.2 - 31.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
 
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Uh, just a question, does dondozo's avalanche deal the boosted damage if non ai teammates have damaged it? I was planning on bringing my support meganium (with a different set ofc) from the pikachu raid for this but I wanna make sure I'm safe
 
Uh, just a question, does dondozo's avalanche deal the boosted damage if non ai teammates have damaged it? I was planning on bringing my support meganium (with a different set ofc) from the pikachu raid for this but I wanna make sure I'm safe
I don't think other players matter because Avalanche specifically checks if the target dealt damage to the user and not if the user was damaged in general.

Also I forgot about the defense cheer improving Miraidon's survival in practice so I edited that in.
 
I won, but it was VEEERRRYYY close. Without the sun up a -1 Wave Crash was able to get rid of almost half of Eelektross' health. It's a very good thing I had a Tauros ally. It doesn't help that Eelektross is so weak he barely deals any damage. You can try Electric Terrain, especially to block that Yawn he does early in the fight, but you would need to get rid of either Sunny Day or Protect, both of which are way too important. You need Sunny Day to weaken Wave Crash, and you do not want to get hit by Earthquake after he removes your buffs. It could probably work if he kills Eelektross the turn he does it, but that's a ginormous if.

My verdict? Unless your willing to reset for Intimidate, don't try Eelektross.

I'm gonna try with Shuca Berry Bellibolt. He may be weaker, but not only is he more durable, his ability gives him Charge every time he's hit.
 
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Bellibolt @ Rocky Helmet/Magnet
Ability: Electromorphosis
Tera Type: Electric
- Chilling Water
- Acid Spray
- Parabolic Charge
- Reflect / Electric Terrain / Mud-Slap

This set can solo; even with no Shuca Berry/Air Balloon/Grassy Terrain, Dondozo still prefers to use Wave Crash, not Earthquake, against Bellibolt. Boosting your own stats isn't an option, so it's up to Chilling Water and Acid Spray to drop theirs, and by then you've built enough charge to tera and start using Parabolic Charge for decent damage. Reflect can be useful around the time the shield goes up (since it's immediately followed by the negwipe and you have to work on dropping Dondozo's stats all over again), otherwise Electric Terrain can prevent the Yawn and later on be a power boost when you're full-on attacking. Mud-Slap can buy you some misses, and is useful as a support option, but that may not be ideal if you're trying to solo: remember, a turn they don't hit you is a turn they don't trigger Electromorphosis, making the next turn only half as strong.
 
Ok, so I just the calcs between Wave Crash and Earthquake and...

0+ Atk Tera Water Dondozo Wave Crash vs. 0 HP / 252 Def Bellibolt: 158-188 (44 - 52.3%) -- 17.6% chance to 2HKO
0+ Atk Tera Water Dondozo Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 252 Def Bellibolt: 134-158 (37.3 - 44%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Yeah, the 20 higher power and bonus Tera STAB is actually enough to do more than a supereffective move. Now that I think about it, maybe Eelektross is not such a good idea in the 1st place.
 
Ugh, 2 crits in one battle not that far apart from each other? And of course, while the 1st one didn't kill, the 2nd was from Earthquake. Really? And that's the only time I ever saw him use Earthquake.
 
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YO MEGANIUM DID IT AGAIN!!
This time I decided to go with
Meganium @ Light Clay
Ability: Leaf Guard
Tera Type: Grass
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 Spe
Bold Nature
- Reflect
- Sunny Day
- Synthesis
- Fake Tears
Avalanche actually did laughable damage once reflect was up (which was pretty easy since flower dino outspeeds even without investment!) Admittedly fake tears was way less useful than I anticipated, mostly since dozo put the shield pretty early on and the bellibolts I got put with had acid spray anyway, so I think I'll replace it with helping hand when I farm the raid. Anyways, another w for the chad!
 
Ooh, Eelektross as support

:SV/Eelektross:
Leftovers
Tera Water
252 Def / 252 HP / 6 SpA
Bold Nature

Acid Spray
Gastro Acid
Sunny Day
Coil (If you have the DLC, Lunge)

With Tera Water he's resistant to Ice and Water and thanks to Levitate he's also immune to Earthquake. That leaves Order Up, which doesn't even do close to half. This will mean you'll be getting hit by Wave Crash a whole lot, but thankfully with Sunny Day and Coil it'll be no problem surviving.
 
Reminder for anyone hunting the tatsugiri: ones from levels 34 to 51 have memento. Bring a gholdengo to block it.
 
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:SV/Ludicolo:

Ludicolo @ Leftovers
Tera Type: Grass
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Def / 252 SpA
Modest Nature
- Giga Drain
- Chilling Water
- Sunny Day
- Synthesis / Grass Knot

I saw an interesting support Ludicolo build in the randoms. Between Ludicolo's amazing typing, Sunny Day support and Chilling Water, you are able to completely minimize Dondozo's damage output while not taking any damage yourself. Of course, with Giga Drain (and the 120BP Grass Knot) Ludicolo can also contribute considerable damage in the later part of the raid.
 
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