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NOC 9p Matrix 6 Game Thread [GAME OVER]

Former said:
ahhhh fine I'll be baited here

That's a credible and respective stance. But also giving up a one shot town vig is objectively better than using it to kill town accidentally.

9 game with a misvotes D1
End of D1: 6 v 2
N1: 5v2
D2 mislynch: 4v2
N2: 3v2
D3 mislynch: Mafia Wins

No no-votes
End of D1: 7 v 2
N1: 6v2
D2 mislynch: 5v2
N2: 4v2
D3 mislynch: 3v2
N3: Mafia win

Yeah okay, I guess in the 9p situation misvoting a slot like whydon's out does make sense because you have the 2/8 chance of it being mafia and perhaps most importantly you end up with one fewer person if it does come to a 3v2 (compared to a 4v2) situation.
Click to expand...

No it's better to kill suspect town than let them live, killing town can be pro town. It's about getting closer to finding mafia at this point, it's not about killing mafia first 2 day phases that's very unlikely and hardly ever happens.
 
shubaka17 said:
okay, makes sense. thanks for the read in tommy!
OM can you show up before i unvote you?
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Based on the amount of the game you've had a chance to catch up on, I don't think the OM vote is too terrible (in the sense that I understand it, not that I agree with it or can advocate it) &your urgency for him to start posting again is Felt, but when you get the chance, lemme know what you think about his follow-through after catching flack for the M24 push
 
Pages 21-3x
Will be faster so I can be around for those spicy end of day shenanigans

1. Thunder~BALLZ

2. Whydon

3. OM
OM said:
unlynch lynch former

The former and dusk interactions feel fake.
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Hmmm, Tommy is talking about me/tbz and cb/whydon split here and OM comes in pushing for me right as Tommy and I are starting to get into it. Could 100% be seen as OM trying to save CB.

4. Duskfall98
Duskfall98 said:
If I were to give a hot prediction (this is probably not accurate but if I am right I will take street cred)

It is one of tbz/former and one of whydon/caff
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ugh, this post still pings me. Pairing two active people with two inactive people is bad.

Man I have like the weirdest take on Tommy right now. I keep finding myself thinking their town without being able to rationally back it up. Like, I'm pocketing myself for him.

aka, my gut keeps saying Tommy is town but I keep challenging my gut and I can't find any definite reason why it thinks that.
5. CaffeineBoost

6. Panic Station shubaka17

7. Schiavetto

9. M24


--
Wrapping this up short on page 27

I think I'm willing to town bloc Tommy/M24/Schia. If I was going to tinfoil I'd say Tommy.
M24 has had some really good purity, which is super hard to fake and I've been finding myself mine melding a lot with schia in ways I don't think can be faked either.

If I had to guess a mafia team here, I think it would be OM/CB, OM has just had this really weird streak of defending CB constantly throughout the game with really shaky reasoning.

That leaves TBZ/Whydon/Shubaka

I think PS/Shubaka break mafia lean still, if it's not OM/CB I'll probably be looking more in that direction. But I'm also willing to give Shubaka some space to read independently since my read is still tied 100% to PS.

Whydon is such a null slot...zzzz

TBZ....like 55% mafia lean? Come on TBZ, I've played eimm with you. I know you can do more than what you've done so far. Show me your moves.
 
Former said:
TBZ....like 55% mafia lean? Come on TBZ, I've played eimm with you. I know you can do more than what you've done so far. Show me your moves.
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Meant to expand more then I didn't. TBZ has had pushes then just abandons them without explanations. Someone posted a link of TBZ doing that in a past game so maybe it's NAI. I just dislike it.
 
Votecount 1.6

Former (2) - OM, Caffeineboost
CaffeineBoost (2) - Thunder~BALLZ, Duskfall98
Whydon (1) - Schiavetto
Duskfall98 (1) - Former
OM (1) - Shubaka17

Not Voting (1) - Whydon

Day ends in 50 minutes :heart: If I made any errors, please let me know!
 
Nuxl said:
Votecount 1.6

Former (2) - OM, Caffeineboost
CaffeineBoost (2) - Thunder~BALLZ, Duskfall98
Whydon (1) - Schiavetto
Duskfall98 (1) - Former
OM (1) - Shubaka17

Not Voting (1) - Whydon

Day ends in 50 minutes :heart: If I made any errors, please let me know!
Click to expand...
you forgot about me not voting anyone
 
Anyway time for my claim and last will

I've royally bungled this game as far as looking town goes so I'll just accept my wagon and leave town with something useful because quite frankly I've been useless all game.

Here's the maths I did in my PM:
--AFTER ROLE PM--
P(6VT & Me VT) = 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9
P(5VT & Me VT) = 2/3 * 5/9 = 10/27

2/9 + 10/27 = 16/27

Basically there's a 3/8 chance there's 6VT's and 5/8 chance there's 5 VT's from my POV now (dividing those probabilities by their total)
So overall we have these probabilities:

Setup 1: 3/16
Setup 2: 5/32
Setup 3: 5/32
Setup A: 5/32
Setup B: 3/16
Setup C: 5/32

--AFTER EVERYONE CLAIMED NOT BPV--
Assuming there's no BPV
P(6VT & Me VT) = 1/2 * 2/3
P(5VT & Me VT) = 1/2 * 5/9
P(6VT) = 6/11
P(5VT) = 5/11

Setup 1: 3/11
Setup 2: 5/22
Setup B: 3/11
Setup C: 5/22

--AFTER EVERYONE CLAIMED NOT TRACKER--
Maths time
Not 3, A, or C.
P(6VT & Me VT) = 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9
P(5VT & Me VT) = 1/3 * 5/9 = 5/27

P(6VT) = 12/17
P(5VT) = 5/17

Setup 1 = 6/17
Setup 2 = 5/17
Setup B = 6/17

Now some maths for after I flip. In all cases, JK knows it's setup 1 and Doc knows it's setup 2.
Assuming scum wouldn't skip kill, there's definitely a JK or a Doc. Definitely setup 1 or 2. Cop knows it's setup 2 and so can probably claim.
From a VT's POV:
P(6VT & You VT) = 5/8 * 1/2 = 5/16.
P(5VT & You VT) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
P(6VT given You VT) = P(Setup 1) = (5/16)/(5/16 + 1/4) = 5/9
P(5VT given You VT) = P(Setup 2) = 4/9

From VT's POV:
P(6VT & You VT) = 4/7 * 2/3 = 8/21
P(5VT & You VT) = 3/7 * 1/3 = 1/7

P(6VT given You VT) = 8/11
P(5VT given You VT) = 3/11

P(Setup 1 given You VT) = 4/11
P(Setup 2 given You VT) = 3/11
P(Setup B given You VT) = 4/11

I'm not calcing the Cop because there are quite a lot of variables that I cannot be arsed to get into.

Doc knows it's setup 2, everyone knows it's not Setup 1.

From VT's POV
P(6VT & You VT) = 5/7 * 1/2
P(5VT & You VT) = 4/7 * 1/2
we can ignore the halves
P(6VT given You VT) = P(Setup B given You VT) = 5/9
P(5VT given You VT) = P(Setup 2 given You VT) = 4/9

If JK or Doc dies, it's 100% setup 1 or 2 respectively.
 
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