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And yes sandshrewz I do want you to clash heads with me. I want you to clash, period. Tell me why I'm bad. Tell me why I'm wrong. Tell me how you're town.
I mentioned earlier that it's gonna come down to Aubisio or Sandshrewz. Though tbh, I'm leaning Aubisio because their lurking is making me paranoid. They're making no attempt to be an active part of the game anymore and I honestly have a hard time believing that this is newbtown behavior. The least they could is try, but they aren't. I went into more detail in my iso on them about two pages ago.
Idk if this is significant, but Aubisio liked my scumread on them. Maybe they really are just giving up?
This is a good question and it's difficult to answer more honestly than emotion. I guess it makes sandshrewz seem kinda scrambly for a lynch after just pushing for no lynch.
Aubisio (1): Sandshrews
Haruno (1): shubaka17
sandshrewz (4): Whydon, the twinmasters, DLE, King_
tropiusisbae (1): King_
Former hope (1): Blazade
Whydon (1): Former hope
Should be the proper vote count assuming I didn't miscount from the last vote count. 10 min or so left. Sorry, I've been super busy for the last several days since I had projects due today so yh. Will post thoughts on the overall game on day 3. Atm I have no idea who to really vote for since a good of players went from null/town reads to more solid scum reads. We'll see after today's results probably since if shrews turn up as noob/desperate town then we at least have a solid mafia lead for day 3. Unsure how much that would help.
Okay, so I went back a bit to look at Sandshrewz plays to help me decide once and for all whether I want to lynch them or Aubisio tonight. I have compiles a bunch of quotes from Sandshrewz. It's a lot, so I'll put them under hide tags. They are put into chronological order (well, kinda, I started with the day 2 quotes.)
"I still stand on DLE being town/mastermind as the most likely." (Page 22, post 539)
"DLE: I'm just keeping in mind he's a likely mastermind. But I don't think it's worth testing or not whether that is the case for now. He's posted a lot and poking a lot, whereas I think he has been receiving less poke than he should be? IDK. It's more of a KIV thing that we should probably just leave him be and don't want to mess with chances that he's actually village. Not worth the risks." (Page 23, post 561)
"I do acknowledge the missing presence of DLE. But I won't be on to see his response or whatever. I'm not going to just blindly lynch someone if I don't have sufficient info to justify it and I'm not on board the idea of doing a 'pressure lynch' if I can't retract it if it becomes necessary."
"If anyone wants to think otherwise feel free to. I'm not going to be pressured to vote just because of that. If I'm going to vote, I'm going to vote on something I am reasonably confident in. And the progress of D2 hasn't really helped me too much on getting a confident lynch. One mislynch is one less kill mafia has to make. And given how different the current votes are, I'm not taking chances making an ignorant vote. Not going to vote for the sake of voting while not being sufficiently confident if that is what's more likely to harm village." (Page 26, post 639)
"Would you be happier if I decided to rand lynch whoever I thought could be mafia even if I lacked supporting arguments and better still if it resulted in a mislynch by chance?" (Page 26, post 643)
"I'm not going to risk village numbers irresponsibly with my unsupported vote atm. I'm not going to interfere with more informed votes (hopefully) that are going to be done during my absence." (page 26, post 643)
"Also I'd like to point out that DLE has been nothing but wishy washy? Everything that he has said has been I feel this I feel that, not much reasons or valid reasons for whatever he feels. He's just cherry picking whatever the heck he wants and never decided on anything properly." (Page 27, post 658)
"Also Aubisio and whoever are simply not getting punished by being completely absent or non-relevant in content. Maybe I'll decide on just Aubisio next cycle if that even happens. Call it frustration votes or what. But I'm just sticking with the DLE vote to call him out and idk if anyone else would agree on that. I'd personally feel like lynching DLE myself is just suicide for me but w/e, I'm going for the village/mastermind thing Empoof mentioned, and something I have agreed with since d1." (Page 27, post 658)
"I don't want any involvement in d1 scum reading and what not. You can call this being idle or whatever idc. I don't want myself contributing to a baseless mislynch is what I want." (Page 8, post 199)
"DLE: Basically baiting everyone and hoping whoever he baits is a mafia and screws up somewhere. I guess that makes sense. If I'm not wrong his mafia reads are empoof, twin, haruno, idleer. Overall a very active townie / mastermind" (Page 10, post 233)
"Just to note, I really don't really have much of a read for anything which is why my posts all have no content but people have been asking for posts so ?___? Aubisio was really the only oene that stood out to be only simply because he had quite a few posts yet I somehow noted nothing noteworthy, like nothing. I'm not experienced with scum read or w/e but I do get the town feel from Mithril for being attentive and that's about it. I didn't quite expect the DLE/Empoof thing I thought initially they were on the same page but seems not. I *personally* can't really read anything this early and ye I probably went in loop too much for my own good lols. I have no noteworthy opinions other than Aubisio but that will probably be addressed or something." (Page 12, post 298)
There's a reason I put all these together. I know this post is a huge mess but I'm trying to get it all in before deadline. Read all these quotes carefully. Reread them if you have to.
The first thing I'd like to point out is Sandshrewz talking about not wanting to risk a mislynch. This happens in both day 1 and day 2. In both, Sandshrewz talks about how they have no strong opinions on anyone. Yet, suddenly, they decide the want to lynch DLE. They claim they've been suspicious of DLE since day 1, and they do admittedly bring up the possibility that DLE could be mastermind in day 1, but they also consider DLE to possibly be a very active townie. This is echoed in day 2 where they mention that they don't want to lynch DLE quite yet for the possibility that they are town. It should be noted that while Sandshrewz did admit to thinking DLE was mastermind from day 1, they never gave any reason as to why. Even on day 2 they initially said they had sufficient info to justify a DLE lynch. Only when they decided to lynch DLE did they put in a reason, which took two days and a lot of pushing to give. While I did play devil's advocate for them, them suddenly going from "I have no strong opinions and don't want to make a baseless lynch" to "I always thought DLE was suspicious but I never told you why until now" is weird as shit to me.
Speaking of which, the Aubisio lynch. Everyone thinks this lynch is scummy. They mention in their DLE lynch that they would be fine with an Aubisio lynch, probably to make it so that if Aubisio does turn out to be mafia, they can claim "I knew it!" Their sudden shift from DLE to honestly looks like a last ditch effort to seem more town.
There's probably stuff I missed but like I said, I'm trying to get this out before deadline. Overall, Sandshrewz has been weird this whole game to me.
Actually yeah, fuck it. I'm going with my gut and voting Sandshrewz like last time. They really haven't done anything for me to make them believe they're town. I honestly can't believe this is newbtown behavior anymore