Tournaments ADVPL VI - Week 3

IncredibleKing

formerly Jusfordlolz
is a Pre-Contributor
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Art by kolohe

Host team: IncredibleKing, JensenDale, Jahkem

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Semifinals | Finals

Administrative Decisions | Replays and Usages | Record Sheet

Rules
  • Follow all rules listed here.
  • Schedule via Smogon VMs. It's easier for me to make decisions for activity calls when I can actually see what went down with scheduling.
  • If you are unable to schedule with your opponent, please let your managers know ASAP so they can communicate that to me or the other team's managers for a potential substitute.
  • Substitutions may be made after a week has started. When making a substitution, please tag myself, the managers of the opposing team, and all of the players affected by the substitute to ensure that everyone is made aware. Players who have already played in the week or were subbed out in the same week cannot be subbed back in.
  • If a match remains incomplete by the time of the deadline, it may be subject to an activity call.
  • It is recommended to play all games on SmogTours as this has all the formats included and games can be recreated in case of unseen circumstances. However, Games can be played on the Pokémon Showdown main server if both players agree. The result between players may be decided in a best-of-one by default.
  • Replays are mandatory. Not only are they useful for confirming wins, they contribute to usage stats and allow the people who couldn't watch the games live to watch them later.
  • Managers: Please send me your lineups in the same format that I used to post pairings. It makes it much easier to post future rounds more quickly.


Before commencing this week, we would like to leave you with some
Advanced Words of Wisdom

In youth, I looked to the heavens, longing for flight.
I am mocked, and named foolish, wingless before the sky.
Yet still I leap, striking stone with unyielding will.
For desire, once kindled, does not yield to scorn.

Through struggle, My body hardened, and I rose as Shelgon.
Encased in strength, I grew heavy and still.
Many declare the dream ended, sealed within my shell.
Yet the longing endures, gathering force in silence.

In time, the striving reaches its appointed end.
Light surrounds me, answering years of defiance.
From that light, I emergeed a Salamence, winged and sovereign.
What was denied becomes undeniable.

For this truth is made known:
Dreams borne through hardship reshape the bearer.
Mockery washes as dirt in the water.
And the sky yields to those who refuse surrender.

The wisdom for us is that we all have dreams we wish to achieve, goals we intend to execute.
However, there will be naysayers and challenges. What stops the naysayers from what being right is...you.
Your efforts and struggles to achieve your dream is what can truly help prove yourself right.


With these words of wisdom, Week 3 commences.
Good luck to all teams!

:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: (0) vs (0) :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:
ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana
ADV OU: violet river vs Sachumberto
ADV OU: Pajama Sam vs Pak
ADV OU: Amaranth vs pixie909
ADV OU: Mikon vs MGdos16
ADV OU BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt
ADV UU: mielke vs crying
ADV RU: SpoiledBerries vs Astro
ADV NU: Shengineer vs hammer798
ADV PU: Plague vs Quarante8
ADV ZU: Sossa vs Baoba
ADV LC: Tack vs shreyashhy

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: (0) vs (0) :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:
ADV Ubers: Lhions vs Zpanther
ADV OU: FJ2K vs sky
ADV OU: WraxiusGaming vs omb
ADV OU: Rambode vs mint yerb
ADV OU: Sinodin vs Ummbr
ADV OU BO3: zinc vs Endill
ADV UU: Parpar vs Kaboom
ADV RU: Eeveeto vs ima
ADV NU: Django vs Monai
ADV PU: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus
ADV ZU: plznostep vs big tony 2014
ADV LC: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker

:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: (0) vs (0) :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:
ADV Ubers: LHF vs Li Xiao Long
ADV OU: robjr vs Vileman
ADV OU: Sato07 vs Genexys
ADV OU: xtinaxendrix vs Void
ADV OU: Zerkas vs eden
ADV OU BO3: Spreek vs Prinz
ADV UU: Elian vs Shiba
ADV RU: Maris Bonibell vs Heysup
ADV NU: mayo vs Rabia
ADV PU: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe
ADV ZU: Hachimaki vs Joaf
ADV LC: Shing vs PoseidonWrath

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (0) vs (0) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:
ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝
ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut
ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400
ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros
ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27
ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami



The deadline for this round is <t:1776052799:F>.​
 
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Excuse me but your regularly scheduled analysis will have to wait a minute because the literal entire reason I'm here just dropped and I want to talk about it

Screenshot 2026-04-06 at 2.30.29 AM.png


Despite both LXL and I having a comically rough, quasi unplayable week two RNG-wise and both being 0-2 on the spreadsheet(terrible culture in general unfortunately, the games, in any tier, are always what tell the story) this has potential to be the highlight matchup of the week, for one reason and one reason only. LXL and I know pretty much entirely how the other thinks for this tier, including both serious team compositions and shitposts alike. Way too many hours of us tossing ideas, game reviews etc etc back and forth and discussing ideas in the builder(read: me pushing ideas farther than they should ever have gone), and at least hundreds of friendlies over the years.

I didn't ever have much of a reason to sign up for a ADV Ubers teamtour since I was always kinda content to just help support stuff if asked, but when Li told me he signed up on a whim, I didn't really have a choice. We've played too many games to not get to face each other in a tournament setting at least once during our time on the site.

Will one, or both of us, meme in the builder like he once did to me with Substitute Psych Up Salac Berry Lugia in 2023 when I was new to the tier? Will I farm him with something absolutely stupid like I've done to him a bunch of times on the ADV Ubers ladder two months ago? Or have we both been gaslighting the other the last two weeks in preparation for this and we each plan to run a very standard 6 out of respect for the seriousness of this game?

I don't know, and that's awesome! I've always wanted to have a game vs a friend like this where there's real stakes, and I couldn't have asked for anything more than what I'm getting this week. Win or lose, I don't care if RNG benefits me or screws me, I will have a blast playing this game and I hope the same is true for him. I've enjoyed being in my teamcord and I've learned a lot from the OUers just by being there, but this is literally the reason I am here and I cannot wait for the actual game.

Actually, the real question: Will Li Xiao Long be too addicted to Hitman to play our match? This might actually be the most likely outcome.

---

Alright, back to normal stuff.

I originally had a super long rant about what the uptick in :Tyranitar: usage means for the tier(I used it week 1, iirc Leo, Mitana and Inspirited all used it week 2), but considering I'm actually tied to a team, that might be something better served for a post tour debrief much as I hate to say it. However, I'm happy that people are experimenting more with the mon in the builder, as it offers some unique qualities some other pokemon simply cannot. I've been a long time fan of the mon, but there are some glaring weaknesses to the mon as well that astute eyes will pick up on. I'll give you a hint - every single Tyranitar team brought this tour has at least two things in common, even if the TTar sets were different.

ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana : it's hard for me to ever consider bolding against mitana in this pool and I don't think I will without good reason, especially after what I considered an incredibly dominant performance vs Inspirited last week. In the battle of Tyranitars it felt pretty inevitable that sun TTar was going to beat rain TTar, especially because Kyogre + Forre is less equipped to handle Tyranitar than Groudon + Skarmory was. The Focus Punch crit from Mitana's Tar on Ogre only accelerated what I think was an inevitable victory, given the gameplay loop that occurred there - every time Forre came in on Mitana's Blissey, it always resulted in a Seismic Toss ---> Tyranitar switch, and Inspirited did not have the tools to stop that combined with the ever looming threat of Groudon. But Gostop isn't necessarily a slouch though, and it shouldn't be taken to look down on his play at all. It's a little unfortunate that we didn't get to see a cleaner game between him and LXL in week 2; the ice beam crit turn 3 on Latias was rough and robbed us of what was looking to be a fun game.

ADV Ubers: Lhions vs. ZPanther: This is not a bold I am making with any concrete claim that one player is better than the other. I just genuinely don't know if Zpanther has played this tier much before in a serious setting, but given his fundamental understanding of OU I can't imagine that it will be a massively big jump for him to be in fighting shape this week. ADV Ubers is a tier where rng can make matchups turn on a dime, but I do think that knowing how to respond to those volatile RNG turns is critical, and that might be where Lhions has an advantage over Zpanther. Between him and Leo I'm sure there will be a serviceable team ready this week, but my question - and big interest - is how he will be ready to handle the volatility of the tier. Lhions has played this tier more, so I give him a slight edge based on that in the actual game, but what teams we will see remains a mystery. This is probably the matchup I'm most interested in just to see Zpanther's approach to the game.

ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs. CyberOdin: The guy just has aura man idk what to tell you. I might be his biggest fan on the website and I'm not joking.
 
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Last week's predicts: 3/3 PU; 0/3 LC
ADV PU: :glalie: Plague vs DD Joe :mewtwo: (guessed Plague, W) - plague won despite letting their minun get boomed early on and having to deal with a lot of pretty miserable hax including a spike-denying crit. im still rather new to this tier so idk how standard these sets are but the protect defcurl resttalk shuckle feels kinda gross lmfao and ice beam licki is cool to avoid being trapped by pinch + it lured a graveler that otherwise could have been a pain. pretty convincing display here.

ADV LC: :glalie: Tack vs PoseidonWrath :mewtwo: (guessed Tack, L) - I went for the upset here and it didn't pay off. turn 1 is hilarious because normally lead staryu runs wfall to put bull into range of hydro without popping sitrus but it ends up doing over 50% and bull ends up being itemless thief and totally thwarts the sequence. I really did not like tack choosing to revenge bull with kid of all mons cuz it got trapped so early and left them much weaker to abra, but it didnt even really matter cuz wrath's voltorb just went crazy with thief + hp grass and put him really ahead. i liked tack's team more this week and the t1 felt pretty odd ev/building-wise from wrath since normally bull is quite spdef but it worked out and if that was intentional then props to him. he also played pretty solid.

ADV PU: :claydol: Metallica126 vs Aurist :psyduck: (guessed Metallica126, W) - not too too much to talk about here cuz metallica found the world's first god vibrava mu and also t20/21 were pretty funny. good sequencing from metallica in an already great mu.

ADV LC: :claydol: Souji/Akumu vs Celdanami :psyduck: (guessed Celdanami, L) - this one felt pretty sloppy from celd, saccing staryu immediately to wail for basically no value was really poor and it snowballed into not having a wail spout switch-in midgame which is also a builder issue which led to saccing onix to trade only to lose ur only physdef wall apparently and immediately losing to bagon. i like bagon spikes from souji/akumu, i think they played pretty straightforward and celd just didnt play and build particularly well this week.

ADV PU: :raikou: Monai vs THE_CHUNGLER :minun: (guessed THE_CHUNGLER, W) - im so sick of ou slop i fucking hate seeing raikou registeel endpert ddmence everywhere, adv pu slop is where its at. deeply unfortunate game for monai with all the crits and misses and early shed skin procs but that's the price you pay for tormenting cat 1. chungler has not been afraid to bring cool shit so far which hes more than capable of piloting well so im anticipating this week too.
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ADV LC :raikou: Hacker vs Shing :plusle: (guessed Shing, L) - pretty unfortunate game for shing with both of his 20 speed elecs getting haxxed vs hacker's fastest mon 19 team. i think this game could have gone quite differently if not for that stuff.

i will simply blame bad luck that i went 0/3 on lc predicts, the pu predicts were pretty safe tho i think



This week's predicts
ADV PU: :claydol: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus :raikou: - forgive my lack of ball knowledge but i have no idea what bugsileus is doing in PU. metallica is a solid pilot and actively builds new stuff, even if he overcooks as long as its not egregious i imagine he wins this one

ADV LC: :claydol: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker :raikou: - i think souji/akumu is more likely to bring a better team but hacker has been lucky as shit and has more outplay potential in-game afaik. hacker is accumulating negative karma tho, so i think this one could b close

ADV PU: :minun: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe :mewtwo: - sorry joe but chungler is another just really solid opp and joe's just not doing hot rn in this tier. chungy might be a bit shaken up after his pucl finals game (sorry) but i think he's still got this one especially since there's much less pressure here.

ADV LC: :plusle: Shing vs PoseidonWrath :mewtwo: - i think this should be a really good one, 2-0 player whos had pretty solid game so far even if im not like in LOVE with his teams vs somehow 0-2 shing. im having a hard time bolding either which i guess is pretty impressive for wrath. shing did have a pretty bad cold streak in advltl and has been on and off in lccl in terms of avail and id imagine also motivation but im hoping that he can get it together sooner than later. i will say tho i think shing will bring something more solid which makes me wanna bold him for reasons other than the forboding potential 0-3 record.

ADV PU: :delibird: TyCarter vs Aurist :psyduck: - aurist also has to break their cold streak too at some point and i think it's possible vs ty even tho ty is solid in his own right and id probably bold him in most other circumstances. i can totally see a world where ty wins again. out of all the pu games besides ours i think im most interested in this one.

ADV LC: :delibird: Alder ST vs Celdanami :psyduck: - alder is imo just overall more solid than celd in terms of buidling and play, i can see a celd upset happening since he does sometimes have that dawg in him but last week was not particularly inspiring. that said tho this game should be quite good i think as long as celd doesnt bring something that gets steamrolled.



I hope Kollin7 will do another amazing OU writeup but I just wanted to highlight some OU games I'm excited to see personally, no predicts or anything really.

ADV OU: :claydol: Rambode vs mint yerb :raikou: - two up-and-comers with Rambode probably being more proven in terms of on-site tours but I think this one has a lot of potential to be great, esp with mint yerb coming in as a sub last week and having the tailwind of winning from that spot fresh off the bench and now finding himself on the starting lu. speaking of starting lu, and this isn't really related to this game specifically, holy shit the raikous changed like 1 billion slots. obv some things had to change after the 0-2-0 start but theres a complete ou overhaul and a couple of low tier shuffles too. really intrigued to see how this pans out since momentum kinda has to reverse here for the raikous or playoffs will need a cinderella run to be achieved.

ADV OU BO3: :claydol: zinc vs Endill :raikou: - i have 0 clue how much effort gets put in here, if i had to guess zinc cares more because endill probably wants to take it a bit easy with stuff going on that i hope gets resolved well but both of these guys just finished their spl seasons after their teams faced off in finals (it was robjr vs endill fwiw but zinc was def involved af in prep) and even tho the winner of that much more stressful tour was decided id imagine theres still a bit of a rivalry here.

ADV OU: :plusle: Sato07 vs Genexys :mewtwo: - two quite pricey big name up-and-coming players who have had strong recent results face off here. sato currently is on a tear in seasonal and i think has looked quite damn strong in game but i feel like genexys feels like he has something to prove here especially after the past 2 weeks being pretty scuffed. rooting for genexys to lock in here vs the tall wall that sato is, esp with confidence perhaps being on the line here.

ADV OU: :delibird: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27 :psyduck: - i think this one will be pretty interesting because both of these guys are 0-2 and these kinds of games are always really weird in terms of mental cuz both players will see the other as a stepping stone to get back on pace and if one loses then its kinda rlly dire. buzzed has more on the line here as a selfbuy manager. hoping for a quality tryhard game here.

also wooooo lets go juggernauts yeaaaaa :suicune: :suicune: :suicune: :suicune: :suicune:
 
Retagging
:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: (0) vs (0) :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:
ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana
ADV OU: violet river vs Sachumberto
ADV OU: Pajama Sam vs Pak
ADV OU: Amaranth vs pixie909
ADV OU: Mikon vs MGdos16
ADV OU BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt
ADV UU: mielke vs crying
ADV RU: SpoiledBerries vs Astro
ADV NU: Shengineer vs hammer798
ADV PU: Plague vs Quarante8
ADV ZU: Sossa vs Baoba
ADV LC: Tack vs shreyashhy

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: (0) vs (0) :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:
ADV Ubers: Lhions vs Zpanther
ADV OU: FJ2K vs sky
ADV OU: WraxiusGaming vs omb
ADV OU: Rambode vs mint yerb
ADV OU: Sinodin vs Ummbr
ADV OU BO3: zinc vs Endill
ADV UU: Parpar vs Kaboom
ADV RU: Eeveeto vs ima
ADV NU: Django vs Monai
ADV PU: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus
ADV ZU: plznostep vs big tony 2014
ADV LC: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker

:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: (0) vs (0) :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:
ADV Ubers: LHF vs Li Xiao Long
ADV OU: robjr vs Vileman
ADV OU: Sato07 vs Genexys
ADV OU: xtinaxendrix vs Void
ADV OU: Zerkas vs eden
ADV OU BO3: Spreek vs Prinz
ADV UU: Elian vs Shiba
ADV RU: Maris Bonibell vs Heysup
ADV NU: mayo vs Rabia
ADV PU: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe
ADV ZU: Hachimaki vs Joaf
ADV LC: Shing vs PoseidonWrath

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (0) vs (0) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:
ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝
ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut
ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400
ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros
ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27
ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami
 
Babe wake up time for predicts
:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: (8) vs (4) :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:
ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana
ADV OU: violet river vs Sachumberto
ADV OU: Pajama Sam vs Pak
ADV OU: Amaranth vs pixie909
ADV OU: Mikon vs MGdos16
ADV OU BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt
ADV UU: mielke vs crying
ADV RU: SpoiledBerries vs Astro
ADV NU: Shengineer vs hammer798
ADV PU: Plague vs Quarante8
ADV ZU: Sossa vs Baoba
ADV LC: Tack vs shreyashhy

:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: (8) vs (4) :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:
ADV Ubers: LHF vs Li Xiao Long
ADV OU: robjr vs Vileman
ADV OU: Sato07 vs Genexys
ADV OU: xtinaxendrix vs Void
ADV OU: Zerkas vs eden
ADV OU BO3: Spreek vs Prinz
ADV UU: Elian vs Shiba
ADV RU: Maris Bonibell vs Heysup
ADV NU: mayo vs Rabia
ADV PU: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe
ADV ZU: Hachimaki vs Joaf
ADV LC: Shing vs PoseidonWrath

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (5) vs (7) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:
ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝
ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut
ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400
ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros
ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27
ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: (12) vs (0) :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:
252+ Atk Choice Band Claydol Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raikou: 455-536 (118.4 - 139.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
more ou predicts! 9/15 last week, got nearly everything wrong on glalies x mewtwos series oops. thanks juggernauts for 5-0ing OU and saving my predicts.


:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: vs :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:

ADV OU: violet river vs Sachumberto - Not a great showing from river last week, but such is bo1. Still pretty confident she can take on Umberto.

ADV OU: Pajama Sam vs Pak - I'm a pretty big Padeli believer but I'm taking Pak over anyone in the bo1 pool outside the thunder twins.

ADV OU: Amaranth vs pixie909 - Rough draw for Amaranth. Blaise has been on fire lately, and I'm not confident Amaranth is the one to break her stride.

ADV OU: Mikon vs MGdos16 - Pretty cool, two players with strong fundamentals but not much ADV OU experience. Mikon has better support in her corner, but mgdos is more proven outside rands, and made circuit championships last year, so I'm trusting him to take this one. That said, I've bolded against Mikon twice so far and been wrong both times, so hoping I don't get it wrong yet again -__-.

ADV OU BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt - Leech has been playing pretty good but his teams have seemed pretty suspect, imo. Flict is fresher in the tier, having put up a great a run in JI2 and playing and testing with me a bunch during SPL, so I'm giving him a pretty confident bold.


:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: vs :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:

ADV OU: FJ2K vs sky - I hope fj shows up on time.

ADV OU: WraxiusGaming vs omb - I haven't seen ombrarch much in ADV, but he's a pretty strong player. I wanna see Wrax put up a good season, and I think she is pretty motivated to so, so I'm bolding her here.

ADV OU: Rambode vs mint yerb - Not too much to say here, Rambode has finally been getting time to shine in forum PLs and has looked pretty solid.

ADV OU: Sinodin vs Ummbr - Rooting for CTX but I've seen Voz perform well in ADV OU a lot more than I have umbr. Go CTX though.

ADV OU BO3: zinc vs Endill - Zinc is very solid, and did beat Endill in SPL recently, but I think Endill's a lot more proven, and I definitely favour him in a bo3 setting. This is a great matchup though, zinc can definitely pull off the win here.


:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: vs:Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:

ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut - Heater mu. Two strong players that haven't been the most active lately, but are more than capable of taking games off of anyone. Close to a toss-up for me, but I think Siglut looked better last week.

ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400 - Tough first game for ADV andy. He's shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but Figull is the clear favourite here.

ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros - Isnialan put on a great performance in week 1 against Forte, and then got matched up against one of the big fish of the pool in leech. Isnialan is certainly capable of pulling off the win against Tyros, but bolding in favour of the dark side of the force off experience and recent form.

ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27 - Rough start for both players, but I'm a lot more familiar with Buzzed so predicting in his favour.

ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl - NoName has looked great in week 1 and 2, but I think Kristyl is much stronger in ADV.
 
Mielke predicts: (warning: dont take anything personally :blobthumbsup: )

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: (6) vs (4) :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:

ADV Ubers: Lhions vs Zpanther: 50/50 to me, both players are not super into the tiers intricacies. Matchup gonna probably decide this one.
ADV OU: FJ2K vs sky: avarice is great at gaming scheduled times and scumming availability, but i dont think his adv experience is as much developed as his act fishing skills. Fj has a lot of nerves problems tho so theres never a clear perspective of a winner.
ADV OU: WraxiusGaming vs omb: i think wrax is in a uprising rn. Havent seen ombrarch do what she does, but hes great so he is also capable of taking this one.
ADV OU: Rambode vs mint yerb: HEAT matchup. Both are great up and comer players, excited for this one. Rambode has a slight experience edge to me.
ADV OU: Sinodin vs Ummbr: voz is a ladder demon, so hes probably gonna find a way to surprise ummbr.
ADV OU BO3: zinc vs Endill: endi is more consistent and experienced. Zinc has shown that she can win, but its not an easy task.
ADV UU: Parpar vs Kaboom: similar power level here, but kaboom might surprise us more then parpar.
ADV RU: Eeveeto vs ima: ima is a great clicker, but ru is going through a meta revamp rn and i think mainers have the edge in those situations.
ADV NU: Django vs Monai: i believe monai has the creativity edge here, tho its a close fight.
ADV PU: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus: bro idk, 50/50 too ig.
ADV ZU: plznostep vs big tony 2014: plz is pretty knowledgeable here, but its zu so "it can go either wayTM".
ADV LC: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker: hacker is v strong on those tiers and adv is very tricky, so i believe he has an edge.


:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: (7) vs (5) :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:

ADV Ubers: LHF vs Li Xiao Long: bruce lee is rlly good, lhf is also competent but i imagine bruce lee might have the outplaying edge.
ADV OU: robjr vs Vileman: rob is very favored here.
ADV OU: Sato07 vs Genexys: sato has a bit more experience on teamtours and such but gene can win this game, depends on too many factors but i think sato has an edge.
ADV OU: xtinaxendrix vs Void: tina is a good player with strong showings, and void's adv has a bunch of fundamental issues that were never fixed through the multiple years that ive been in the community and seen him play. That being said, void is still a demon so i have no reason to believe he is unfavored here.
ADV OU: Zerkas vs eden: eden is more unpredictable and on average loads the better teams.
ADV OU BO3: Spreek vs Prinz: v cool matchup. I have reasons to believe that spreek is favored, such as better team selection and active teambuilding, but its very close. Definetly gonna be a series worth watching.
ADV UU: Elian vs Shiba: shiba is heavily favored here, both experience and teamwise.
ADV RU: Maris Bonibell vs Heysup: i have no reason to believe that maris gonna win this one besides chungler cteaming heysup, which is very doable tbh. Either way, heysup is very solid and hard to crack.
ADV NU: mayo vs Rabia: good matchup. I feel like mayo is slightly better here but its gonna be a heat watch.
ADV PU: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe: chungler has the advantage here both skill and teamswise imo.
ADV ZU: Hachimaki vs Joaf: i think hachi has an slight advantage, but this is adv zu.
ADV LC: Shing vs PoseidonWrath: shingggggggggg.


:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (3) vs (7) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:

ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝: he has contacted his opp and he has wished good luck to his team. I dont see how u beat that.
ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut: caloom teams in the past weeks were very dubious, and siglut is not easy to beat.
ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400: both players have similar traits, but i think figgy is more developed.
ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros: tyros is another ladder demon, but its a way closer matchup then u would think. I think its gonna be a fun game to watch.
ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27: both players have not had good showings in the tour so far, but theres still a lot of tournament to go and i believe both can shine as they get more experience. Another close matchup, but i believe buzzed has a better chance of taking the w.
ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl: both players are awesome to watch and play very well. Im gonna use shake's "it can go either wayTM" again, but kris is favored.
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp: i dont recognize both players and uu is a very difficult tier so i cant really give any ratings here.
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions: jabba has been awesome to watch this tour so far and i have high expectations for more awesome ru games from him.
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper: fatty is a better clicker then oath, but oath definetly could take this one.
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist: i think aurists teams are better on average, so ill give the edge to them.
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal: 50/50. adv zu gaming.
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami: celda has proven that he is a strong opponent in this tier, but alder has more experience and has a bigger reputation of demon, so ill take him in this battle.
 
Mielke predicts: (warning: dont take anything personally :blobthumbsup: )


ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝: he has contacted his opp and he has wished good luck to his team. I dont see how u beat that.

ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs. CyberOdin: The guy just has aura man idk what to tell you. I might be his biggest fan on the website and I'm not joking.

I'm glad others see what I see, but there's a hidden third piece to this too - the "give me your discord." It's the holy trinity
 
plusle-minun.gif

I know I'm late but Michigan won the natty ok

:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: (11) vs (1) :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:
ADV Ubers: LHF vs Li Xiao Long
ADV OU: robjr vs Vileman
ADV OU: Sato07 vs Genexys
ADV OU: xtinaxendrix vs Void
ADV OU: Zerkas vs eden
ADV OU BO3: Spreek vs Prinz
ADV UU: Elian vs Shiba
ADV RU: Maris Bonibell vs Heysup
ADV NU: mayo vs Rabia
ADV PU: THE_CHUNGLER vs DD Joe
ADV ZU: Hachimaki vs Joaf
ADV LC: Shing vs PoseidonWrath

:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: (5) vs (7) :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:
ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana
ADV OU: violet river vs Sachumberto
ADV OU: Pajama Sam vs Pak
ADV OU: Amaranth vs pixie909
ADV OU: Mikon vs MGdos16
ADV OU BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt
ADV UU: mielke vs crying
ADV RU: SpoiledBerries vs Astro
ADV NU: Shengineer vs hammer798
ADV PU: Plague vs Quarante8
ADV ZU: Sossa vs Baoba
ADV LC: Tack vs shreyashhy

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: (8) vs (4) :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:
ADV Ubers: Lhions vs Zpanther
ADV OU: FJ2K vs sky
ADV OU: WraxiusGaming vs omb
ADV OU: Rambode vs mint yerb
ADV OU: Sinodin vs Ummbr
ADV OU BO3: zinc vs Endill
ADV UU: Parpar vs Kaboom
ADV RU: Eeveeto vs ima
ADV NU: Django vs Monai
ADV PU: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus
ADV ZU: plznostep vs big tony 2014
ADV LC: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (5) vs (7) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:
ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝
ADV OU: Caloom vs Siglut
ADV OU: ADV Andy vs Figull400
ADV OU: isnialan vs DarthTyros
ADV OU: Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27
ADV OU BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami
 
:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: (0) vs (0) :Suicune:Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:
ADV Ubers: gostop vs mitana LHF says they are the best and they’ve looked the best. As an aside, I think the buy low on gostop was worth a shot from glalies and is going fine so far, even if they lose this week.
ADV UU: mielke vs crying I would’ve picked Mielke just off vibes probably but I just know him better as a player
ADV RU: SpoiledBerries vs Astro berries is probably gonna be super motivated to put on for the team this tour which is a really good sign for the glalies. Probably could’ve sniped her, 3k berries is criminal
ADV NU: Shengineer vs hammer798 Shengineer is very motivated to cook and has a strong building partner in River, probably rate him highest in the pool out of the people not on my team.
ADV PU: Plague vs Quarante8 48 actually played quite well last week and got his dick lucked off, this will be the biggest test for the juggs PU support squad, if they take the win off plague they’re winning this series
ADV ZU: Sossa vs Baoba Baoba had a good game last week and is on a good team which will make him prep better.
ADV LC: Tack vs shreyashhy hes been very good in lccl to my knowledge

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: () vs () :Psyduck:Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:
ADV Ubers: Inspirited vs CyberOdin✝ I think Odin’s skill is playing up in ubers a bit since his scout is less counter-able right now as opposed to OU (from what I’ve been told). Maybe that’ll change as he plays but he might be the best overall player in this pool even if there’s an ubers experience gap.
ADV UU: LBN vs boomp mmm I’ll go with LBN he’s had some perfectly good games and boomp I haven’t seen them play the tier yet
ADV RU: JabbaTheGriffin vs Premonitions Jabba I just rate very highly if he cares, and I don’t think the birds have any reason to start giving up even after a tough start
ADV NU: fatty vs Oathkeeper Oath showed up last week and played well, fatty lost but I rate higher as a player
ADV PU: TyCarter vs Aurist the Aurist turnaround has to happen soon, they have definitely struggled but not as bad as their records have indicated. I do rate tycarter more as a player but I just have a gut feeling
ADV ZU: Fragments vs Nal Nal is getting a feel for this now so his games should be way more competitive.
ADV LC: Alder ST vs Celdanami 50/50 weighted towards alder cause he’s my friend and beat me last time we played

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: () vs ():Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:
ADV Ubers: Lhions vs Zpanther Lhions with more experience is probably favored here. Zpanther really needs to lead the turnaround for this team.
ADV UU: Parpar vs Kaboom ive liked how parpar has looked this tour. I think it’s a waste to have kaboom be such a strong ouer in UU right now when the team really needs strong OUers. Especially with Amity support you surely can slot a pilot into UU with at least a solid chance and put kaboom in OU1
ADV RU: Eeveeto vs ima ill bet on amity being able to get ima a good team that can beat some of eeveeto’s tendencies though he’s definitely the underdog
ADV NU: Django vs Monai Django ruined my predicts last week
ADV PU: Metallica126 vs Bugsileus the metallic coat has been putting a lot of time into the tier, I can tell every time I get a random challenge on PS. Definitely could be the steal of the draft by season’s end
ADV ZU: plznostep vs big tony 2014 Tony’s games vs the player I consider best in the pool by far were great last week and he got quite unlucky while still playing well.
ADV LC: Souji/Akumu vs Hacker just guessing but hacker played a fine game last week and beat shing in a pretty tough matchup even with very good luck
 
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WEEK 2 RECAP + WEEK 3 OU PREDICTS!!

For week 2, I went 10/18 on predicts (not counting the two games that ended up having subs) which puts me at 20/38 now for the season. Still not a great percentage, but maybe I'll just get stronger with each week. If my Mushi League predict track record is anything to go by though, I should just be happy to be greater than 50%.

Weekly disclaimer that pontificating on games from the sidelines is much easier than actually playing games and that also I am very liable to possibly just being straight up wrong! Anyways, let's go over 'em!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 2 Recap


:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: vs :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:

violet river < Vileman
I predicted: violet river ❌

River followed up week 1 by bringing yet another spikeless offense. This one featured a CB Tar that did half the work of killing it by itself with Double-Edge recoil. Vileman brought a classical SkarmMag 6. Pretty early on watching this one, I was thinking it could be a Blissey 6-0 (even though it's CM Bliss here. Why??) and when Vileman's last was revealed as Aero, it was truly curtains. Key turn here is probably turn 16. With Tar dead for River and Bliss healthy for Vileman, I think River was starting to feel the momentum slip away and tried to wrestle it back with an aggressive DD. She's probably hoping Vileman would just layer up or maybe even try a cheeky protect heal; even a Roar would mean nothing really is lost. Instead, Vileman just lands a Toxic. River actually probably still has a roll on turn 17 to just sweep the game, but DDs again (something of a mind game turn). From there, River pretty much gets choked out. Seeing what the rest of Vileman's unrevealed team ended up being, I suppose the real mistake was trying to use the Mence as a breaker instead of a finisher in the first place. If she's a little more patient with the Mence, it should end up sweeping easily. Honestly, I think the Bliss revealing CM early on probably messed with River a lot and she likely expected something completely different in the last two slots from Vileman's team than what it actually ended up being, which dissuaded her from trying to use EndPert before Mence.

Pajama Sam < Genexys
I predicted: Pajama Sam ❌

For the second straight week, Pajama Sam brought pretty much exactly what he is expected to bring and for the second straight week got a pretty even if not solidly favorable matchup. I don't know what this says about the players or this tournament or what it says about prep as a concept in the first place. Anyways, Genexys brought eden's team from week 1. The game starts off with lead Skarm doing what it does best (dying) and then things momentarily get quite strange as Genexys pretty much straight up sacs his Blissey on turn 7, but PJ Sam inadvertently lets him off the hook because that was so weird. Things go back to reasonable for the next while and then on turn 36 a surprise phys-invested Focus Punch from Pert (apparently this Pert's set is Ice Beam, EQ, FPunch, HP Bug by the way) removes PJ Sam's Bliss. This does allow him to maneuver a Wish to his Tar, but the surprise Toxic from Forre earlier is gonna make it tough even with perfect predicts. Power of surprise coming through in this game for Genexys. Sacing Moltres instead of Pert probably made this endgame a little needlessly difficult though. Anyways, turn 1 kind of ruined this. Imagine if PJ Sam got to leverage a Skarm in this game, and if it ever managed to receive a wish, gg.

Amaranth < Void
I predicted: Void ✅

Not too much of a game here. Void brought a ZapDug take that I most associate with Fakes, while Amaranth brought U6 but with Zapdos in the Celebi slot. Technically, the Celebi slot on that 6 can be kind of whatever you want (we've commonly seen Tar, but also sometimes have even seen stuff like Snorlax, Regirock, and Heracross as the 6th) as the other 5 are pretty much self-sustaining. I don't really like the choice of Zapdos because as a wall it only really helps cover vs Suicune/Swampert (already well covered by Celebi) and vs mixed attackers (already well covered by DefMie + Bliss). Zap is also lacking as a progress maker compared to all the other possible 6ths I've named. Obviously, the crit forcing immediate Rest didn't help at all here. In theory, Skarm + SpDefZap + Bliss + DDMence is kind of exactly what you would want against Void's team. Maybe because of this exact scenario you can argue for leading with Zap, but then you don't really have a good line vs lead Tar. Even after everything, DD EQ Mence actually would have just swept at the end.

Mikon > eden
I predicted: eden ❌

I said in my predict for this game that you always have to be a little afraid eden will overcook and that's kinda the basic story here, as he brought what I guess you'd call spikeless balance. He also played aggressively and Mikon just kinda didn't cooperate with it. Turn 5 eden switches Tar to Gar, a sensible play because it accounts for both Lax staying in and a flying type switching in. In hindsight, maybe it was unnecessary though because even if something switches into EQ, you have all of Starmie, Blissey, and Gengar's health to deal with it instead of having to trade Gengar for Lax. Then turn 9 is just ambitious. Maybe eden figures if the Celebi is the response to CB Slide that means it's definitely gonna Recover, but if it's offensive, Giga Drain should just kill too. The other thought is Dug in the back shouldn't be expected at this point. I feel like with Lax down and knowing what the rest of eden's team is, he definitely can just let Tar go and Dug follow-up from there. Instead Dug gets killed and then Celebi just soloes.

BO3: Conflict < Prinz
I predicted: Conflict ❌

Game 1 Prinz brought the new age JoltSpikes with Forretress. I swear to God this team's winrate in tours is like 99%. Conflict brought what I guess we can again call spikeless balance, a pretty weird one. Prinz pretty much just had all the answers with Counter Forre and the power of Modest Gar blasting through Claydol. Not a close game. Game 2 they both brought Dug offenses. This matchup was pretty funny because Conflict's Regice on paper should do immense work to Prinz's 6. However, Prinz's Zap ends up being Sub BP with Toxic, the perfect set for this matchup. Prinz's Zap just goes complete gamewrecker mode here and destroys for another not close game. Props to Prinz for such an impressive bounce back after a frustrating week 1.

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: vs :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:

Rambode < DarthTyros
I predicted: DarthTyros ✅

A quick one here. Rambode brought what I guess you call kind of like a new age Skarm Beatdown squad and Tyros brought uhhh CMPass I guess maybe? Honestly not sure if that's what it was or not. On turn 6, Rambode has no real switch in to Swampert on this team and is hoping Tyros will not want to risk all his Pert's health so early. However, since Tyros's Zap immediately died, he appears to have no real MixMence answer either, so he just stays and that pretty much decides the game. Rambode's Meta also gets immediately burned by Fire Blast, removing the possible out.

Forte < Siglut
I predicted: Siglut ✅

As expected after a week 1 Smeargle flop, Siglut went in the complete other direction with some fat. Forte brought the Medicham sample. The first part of the game looks quite good for Forte. The game starts to get swung on turn 21. Forte decides to bring Medicham in. Pretty reasonable as it is a massive threat to Siglut's team. But then, Siglut makes the heads up move of just STossing as Medi tries to Focus Punch. It's a good move because not only does it just deny a FPunch (or a potential Shadow Ball denying Claydol pivot), but even if Forte just Brick Breaks there at least you've got damage on Medi to put it in range of a lot of stuff like Dol's EQ, Zap's TBolt, a roll with Suicune Surf, so Medi is less threatening later on. In the end, Medi takes a chunk out of Bliss and about 40% out of Rachi. Good progress, but far from the disaster it could have been. Turn 28 is another super key turn. Forte goes for DD, probably expecting a Protect, but Siglut just goes for Wish. This means Rachi is back online to potentially try to deal with Lax later, which is obviously massive. Forte tries to catch it on turn 32, but Siglut knows Rachi's health is too key at this point. Story of the game, Siglut kind of just won the key turns here.

Sinodin > Buzzed27
I predicted: Buzzed27 ❌

Buzzed brought some Slop (same 6 as River actually), while Sinodin brought a new take on Venusaur spikes. We start out with a turn 1 misplay as Buzzed goes for EQ in the Tar mirror, ensuring Sinodin gets a completely free spike. Definitely not the click you're supposed to make, and the game would have been completely different without it. Things gets recovered as Celebi does some good breaking, but then the other big mistake of the game happens on turn 13. There's just really no good reason to keep Registeel in here. It gets the ultimate punish by being crit, but this was wholly avoidable. Kind of funny that Buzzed actually maybe won this game with a second CM on turn 28. Certainly can't blame him for just going for it though, I thought Sinodin's last was gonna be Gengar or Aero.

WraxiusGaming < Figull400
I predicted: WraxiusGaming ❌

Wraxius brought a neat looking Houdini offense featuring OffGon and Black Glasses (?) Suittar. I will say this 6 is probably way too weak to mixed attackers, but maybe Figull looked like the person to bring it vs. Unfortunately for Houdini, Figull led with Zapdos. It takes all the way until turn 29 for Metagross to get its opportunity again. This was definitely a key turn and both players thought on it for a while. It was kind of just one big mind game. If Wraxius booms on Zapdos or Swampert, she's in a pretty strong position, but if she booms into Tar, Figull probably should be able to just clean up. Figull makes the decision to go Pert, honestly pretty crazy because I would have expected boom to come most of the time, but even if Mash, every bit of Pert's health is so valuable for Flygon. Wrax then misses Mash on the next turn, which kind of seals things.

BO3: zinc > Kristyl
I predicted: Kristyl ❌

Game 1 saw nearly identical teams, both using Mag offenses with only 1 mon differentiating. Kristyl has SDPass Celebi + Aero, while zinc has CM Celebi + Gyara, kind of like a take off the old Asta team. Mirrors or near mirrors are always kind of funky, and I'm not sure there's much to analyze here. They kind of just traded into each other until fittingly it comes down to a face-off of the two different Celebi sets. zinc gets a crit at the perfect time to seal it, but to be fair Kristyl did get an important crit earlier. Game 2 was quite something. Kristyl has a very interesting team, CloyMagDol with CB Gon, while zinc has Triangles' week 5 SPL team. The entire sequence from turn 9-13 is pretty funny, ultimate volatility. Game may just be over if the Counter lands there though. It looks like Zap + Rachi are gonna kinda just kill all, but then it turns out CB Gon is the one who kills all. Wild game. Game 3 was a lot more normal and there isn't much to say about it. zinc has a pretty basic CMPass squad, and Kristyl has no real response to +1 Zard, so zinc gets a big leg up and then pretty much just trades to the end. I guess turn 6 is the key because Kristyl opts to get a spike up instead of Roaring. Generally, the Celebi user always attacks on that turn because you don't want to pass and get Roared for nothing, but I guess zinc hard called out the spike. I think I'm kind of surprised Kristyl spiked though, because I'm not sure what she does next turn if Celebi attacks and it looks like a 2hko on Skarm. I suppose she'd just go Zap and TWave but we didn't find out in this game who was faster between zinc's Celebi and Kristyl's Zap, so that definitely could have been risky if it just allowed Celebi to slowpass (even if it meant eating a Drill Peck) too.

:Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou: vs :Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun:

Zpanther < robjr
I predicted: Zpanther ❌

Not a whole lot to say, this one kinda played itself for both sides. Robjr has a MixZap lead to open things up for Rachi and Jolt in the back, pretty old school idea. Rob makes the solid play that pretty much secures the game of doubling in Rachi on turn 16. He also gets rewarded with a crit that mattered. If Zpanther gets a boom off there with Forre and then Mence follows up, maybe he still has a chance if Bliss can avoid 2hko from Jolt. Zpanther can then try to find Mence entires on Pert. It would have been interesting at least. Although, funnily due to Aero shenanigans, Zpanther actually ends up a flinch or Toxic miss away from winning this game anyways.

DepressionCherry < Sato07
I predicted: Sato07 ✅

Sato brought one of the CyberOdin standards, the old eden ZapDug sample, although he changed the Tar to CB. DepressionCherry's team looks like a big no fat fish and I guess you can say it landed. On turn 13, DC greedily doesn't heal Bliss, which probably affects how the next several turns play out as it's now susceptible to being Dug'd. It's kind of just very tough from here for DC because he can't really force damage onto Zap. I think he had to try something different from what he did though. For example, on turn 25-26 he really just completely accepts Bliss dying instead of at least trying to pivot Mence in.

ima mint yerb > xtinaxendrix
I predicted: n/a (xtina > ima)

Xtina brought U6 and mint yerb brought DefMie double blob SDPass with SubTect lefties Aero. Yeahhh. Apparently this build is courtesy of Spreek, who is on xtina's team. It's an interesting one, though I'm unsure it really has a plan for Gengar. So, there's probably a ton you can say about this game and we all had fun watching it unfold in the ML chat, but I don't think I have the energy and patience to go over specific turns here with game state analysis. I think Yerb sort of mismanaged things probably to start the game and then was a little too cute with the SDPass and later completely did not recognize how crucial PP was going to be which all contributed to this game being a bit harder than it needed to be. For her part, Xtina played pretty good most of the game, trying her heart out to make this doable. Ultimately, SDPass vs U6 should be kind of impossible for U6, this game just ended up very weird for a lot of reasons. Anyways, all you need to know is Yerb just barely managed to win a PP war basically.

SamuelBest < Janis105
I predicted: Janis105 ✅

Janis brought Spreek's game 2 team from week 1 and SamuelBest brought Skarph 2k. Lead Gengar is always a strange one to face; it usually indicates a special-based offense that really wants to force the issue vs Tyranitar. It used to kind of exclusively indicate Hypnosis, but we've seen some messing around with some other ideas in recent times, and that is the case here. It clicks Destiny Bond turn 1 vs Tar, which on the surface seems kind of odd for a couple reasons. First, what if the Tar had clicked Dragon Dance? Well, you probably have to be specifically Jolly Lum to justify a turn 1 DD and that's a set that hardly seems to exist period right now, but especially does not exist at lead. So, you really probably don't have to worry about giving up free setup. The second much bigger reason turn 1 DBond looks strange is because doesn't that only work if it's a Tar with Crunch and otherwise you're just giving away that you have DBond and gain nothing? Well, I was tipped off that apparently this Gengar has 0 Defense IVs, so it actually will die to any Rock Slide too. It's an interesting idea that I think actually works well because Lead Gengar is a mon that heavily dissuades switching due to the threat of Hypnosis. SamuelBest opts to switch to a Blissey, which is a fair play to scout for Hypnosis (though it can go very bad if the Gar was CB Brick Break or even just opts to straight up boom vs Tar leads to Dug follow-up, which is not impossible). The problem now on turn 2 is SamuelBest kind of still doesn't really have a good move. Janis could easily just aggressively boom here, so you probably don't really want to keep Bliss in, but going back to Tar might just be playing right into what Janis wants too. They opt to just play mind games for a few turns and then SamuelBest decides to trade a burn on Skarmory for his spike, which I agree with. The Gar-Bliss showdown repeats on turn 12 and this is one of the key turns of the game. If staying with Bliss was risky before, it really doesn't seem like the prudent play now, because you've already given up the burn on Skarmory and the best scenario with staying now is I guess you kill Gengar as it Wisps or FPunches in a failed overprediction which really doesn't seem that realistic. The other reason to stay is you might think Janis will double to something to catch Skarm because going Skarm is obvious, but in that case you still probably don't really want Bliss in. Anyways, Janis indeed just booms now and it OHKOs Bliss. All is not totally lost because SamuelBest has an Aero spikes team vs a very Aero weak team. They trade down some and then turn 25 is the other likely key turn of the game. Janis is representing very likely DDMence and SamuelBest's DDMence answers are not amazing as he has Tar that cant take a hit, a burned Skarm, Aero, and a Pert with some chip on it already. He decides to just keep Tar in with the logic that if he DDs it will be a bit easier for Pert to beat it with it already hit by a Tar Rock Slide, and if he just kills Tar then Aero is fine to clean up (this part turns out to not exactly be true). It's probably better to just Sac skarm (even if Mence DDs and then flinches Skarm, you're probably still ok) and then go Pert, or maybe even just hard Pert and sac Skarm later. Tar still has a lot of value in this endgame. Anyways, Janis just kills the Tar so now Aero can come in and just Slide. Then turn 27 is also a bit muddy because if you stay with Aero and don't flinch as they Tbolt and live after sand, you lose. However, if you switch as they Sub or HP Grass a Pert switch, you also likely lose. Even if you switch as they Tbolt, you have to play double switch mind games later. I saw some questioning of the ultimate decision here too, but I think I'm completely fine with the decision to stay and Slide. Janis avoids flinch (and avoids high roll maybe?) and wins.

BO3: Endill < Spreek
I predicted: Spreek ✅

Game 1 Spreek brought kind of like a new age Forre offense thing. Not very convinced by this build to be honest; set choices feel a bit off. Game ends up very close with Endill pulling it out, assisted by a Fire Punch burn. Game 2 Spreek goes with a different offensive spiker and the game gets basically decided early on. Spreek decides to pretty immediately boom Cloyster which is a risky move vs what's representing as some fat SkarmDol stuff. It works out because he crucially Toxics an incoming Claydol rather than blanking with Tbolt, and then on turn 7 Endill is in a really awkward spot which Spreek takes advantage of. From there, Spreek just breaks through. Game 3 Spreek has the team NoName brought in game 2 of his set last week; this is a team I'm a lot more convinced by. Endill meanwhile has one of his old Smeargle builds. Endill gets pretty good value out of his beagle, but Spreek's Celebi set ends up causing big issues. I think maybe Endill needed to use his Gengar to force things before his team was so weakened, but I think he definitely was unfamiliar and thrown off a bit by Spreek's team.

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: vs :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:

isnialan < pkThunderbolt
I predicted: pkThunderbolt ✅

Leech brought a take on JoltSpikes, while isnialan brought River's 6 from week 1 of SPL. Not much to say here, just a quick offense game. Leech definitely had a pretty strong matchup. Jolt wreaks a lot of havoc here and Starmie was always threatening to sweep with only a bit of work as long as it wasn't in Dug or Aero range. I think isnialan probably expected (and hoped) Leech's last was Gengar and then DDTar had a good shot to win. I definitely thought it was going to be Gengar too, but maybe the Dol matchup is fine with TauntTox Skarm and MixTar.

eternallywandering < Sachumberto
I predicted: Sachumberto ✅

This one was a little bit silly. eternallywandering brought lead Dug + double Normal blob, while Umberto has CMPass with Mag. Mag crucially means Celebi can carry both Leech Seed and Baton Pass, which makes it kind of impossible to deal with. On turn 17, Claydol dies from full health to Starmie Hydro Pump. If the Dol is max HP with no other bulk, Timid max special attack Mie can OHKO Dol with a high roll. I don't know if eternallywandering didn't calc this and assumed the Mie must have been Modest and therefore outsped by Dug or if he simply didn't know his Dug's speed stat or what exactly, but he sent his Dug in to get killed for nothing. Celebi basically just swept from there, although it kept getting para'd and/or missing Leech Seed which made it take a little longer.

Scally_Wagon < Rubyblood MGDos16
I predicted: n/a (Rubyblood > Scally_Wagon)

MGDos brought Slop featuring Aero, while Scally_Wagon brought kind of an old school looking SkarmDol take. Probably unnecessary to risk letting Aero get Toxic'd right away on turn 3. Scally decided to use Zapdos as the Registeel check, which we see doesn't really work even with Rest. EndPert then does its thing and we can see where having Aero not Toxic'd would have made things quite a bit simpler in this game. I think probably both players misplay turn 35, but MGDos especially does. He can just EQ forever here and it will win 100% of the time. If Scally had switched to Meta on the Double-Edge, Blissey can possibly just outheal as Aero dies to poison. Indeed, Scally probably should have gone to Meta as this choke is their only shot of winning, but then again I suppose the other choke line that wins is Tar clicking and missing Rock Slide there in which case you don't want Meta in. So I guess it's actually just picking what you think is the more likely choke, and it was guessed wrong here.

Caloom < Pak
I predicted: Pak ✅

I'm trying not to just glaze Pak whenever I talk about him, but this was probably the most impressive game of the tournament so far. Caloom's team is definitely very weak to Taunt Gar, but this was still a masterclass in leveraging it, never giving an inch. Turn 42 onwards, Pak just gets every turn right. It was somewhat fortunate that Pak's Skarm didn't get para'd on its spike turns, things could have unraveled if it had. I think maybe Caloom should have been insistent on not allowing Rachi to be burned, at least at that point, as it still could have eventually killed all if Dug traps Tar. Like maybe on turn 45 you can go Skarm instead. It's tough to anticipate you'll truly never get opportunities to heal though.

BO3: NoName6293 < pixie909
I predicted: pixie909 ✅

Game 1 NoName has a wild team. CMPass with Forre and no "true" rock resist. It kind of follows the ideals of the old Hclat concept where the idea is Forre spikes and trades effectively early and then the rest of the team applies pressure such that spinning is never really worth it for the opponent. You also have mons that generally do well in spikeless matchups. It's definitely at least intriguing. For her part, Blaise has HP Fire Skarmory which is a fun idea for what would otherwise be a very Forre weak 6. This was a fun and interesting game. I'm not sure, but I think maybe the endgame could have been executed in a slightly different and better way for NoName to get a win? Game 2 Blaise has Mag + V5. Kind of hilarious because if Blaise has any 6th besides Mag, NoName likely has a very easy victory with SDPass. NoName obviously gets big luck to actually win here, but maybe Blaise should have been more insistent on keeping Suicune alive. Game 3 NoName has another one of those modern Forre offenses we've been talking about, but Blaise has big 5 which I think is really not what these teams are aiming to face. Blaise made some good plays here and locked up what I'd say pretty clearly was the most entertaining BO3 of the week.

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Week 3 Predicts

:Glalie: Spiked-up Glalies :Glalie: vs :Suicune: Flawless Juggernauts :Suicune:

violet river vs Sachumberto - Umberto is 2-0, but kind of feels like he hasn't had to work particularly hard for those wins. River had a slight stumble last week, but still favoring her here.

Pajama Sam vs Pak - Pak

Amaranth vs pixie909 - Not sure why Blaise is moving to BO1, maybe time commitment restraints this week? Tough draw for Amaranth to try to get his footing vs.

Mikon vs MGdos16 - Still really don't have a great feel for Mikon, but they haven't had any big clear missteps I don't think. MGDos felt a little shakier, and also has to worry about Jimvitational this week (hype).

BO3: Conflict vs pkThunderbolt - Leech has been fine so far, but a BO3 vs Conflict is a big test even if Conflict isn't off to a strong start.

:Claydol: Goo Goo Claydols :Claydol: vs :Raikou: The RaikOUs :Raikou:

FJ2K vs sky - My impression of FJ2K is that he's generally solid, but at times liable to some messy clicks, though I think he's been a bit better lately. I know sky has results in other gens and this is probably a pretty close matchup, but I've never seen them in ADV and my policy is generally to favor mainers over non-mainers.

WraxiusGaming vs omb - Bit of a similar story to above. I might have more immediate trust in omb than sky in ADV, but Wrax has been looking good and again we have mainer bias.

Rambode vs mint yerb - Two gamers who may be prone to imprecision. Yerb did good to bring something unexpected last week, but still just a slight bit more trust in Rambode for now.

Sinodin vs Ummbr - Really just don't know Ummbr.

BO3: zinc vs Endill - SPL hangover.

:Plusle: Thunder Twins :Minun: vs :Mewtwo: Psystrike Padawans :Mewtwo:

robjr vs Vileman - SPL hangover.

Sato07 vs Genexys - Genexys got a win last week, but probably needed some good fortune to do so. Sato is looking like one of the stronger players in the tour.

xtinaxendrix vs Void - Very tight mu here I reckon. I think I was right when I said preseason that xtina is improved, but Void is looking solid so far and just has a bit more of a track record as a player.

Zerkas vs eden - Potentially a very funny matchup here as both could easily bring some wack shit. I've always thought of Zerkas as the type of player who can beat anyone and can lose to anyone which makes predicting his games impossible. I'm gonna go with Zerkas here because eden will probably just do whatever he feels like rather than aiming for punishing Zerkas's habits.

BO3: Spreek vs Prinz - Spreek is bringing some neat new teams this tour, which makes me think he's invested in prep. Prinz is definitely someone who has a clear style he likes in this tier, and I trust Spreek's ability to exploit that.

:Delibird: Degenerate Delibirds :Delibird: (0) vs (0) :Psyduck: Mighty Psyducks :Psyduck:

Caloom vs Siglut - A lot of players who are 0-2 will kind of roll over and give up, but it also can potentially just free you up from pressure. We'll see what it means for Caloom, but Siglut is yet another tough draw for him.

ADV Andy vs Figull400 - ADV Andy is pretty smart and is someone who has looked improved lately in Mushi League, but Figull is simply more proven in tours at this level.

isnialan vs DarthTyros - isnialan is promising, but Tyros may have plot armor.

Scally_Wagon vs Buzzed27 - Battle of 0-2s who kind of desperately need to show something this week. I've just seen Buzzed in other ADV tours though, so I have to favor him.

BO3: NoName6293 vs Kristyl - This should be an entertaining one, as both will probably bring interesting teams. Pretty tight call, but Kristyl has an experience edge.

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Not gonna lie, I don't know if I'll keep up writing these the whole tour, it's kind of a ton of work LOL. For now, I'm having fun doing it and don't have much else taking up my mons time, but yeah just no promises going forward... At the very least I'll probably have to simplify it.
 
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