WEEK 2 RECAP + WEEK 3 OU PREDICTS!!
For week 2, I went 10/18 on predicts (not counting the two games that ended up having subs) which puts me at 20/38 now for the season. Still not a great percentage, but maybe I'll just get stronger with each week. If my Mushi League predict track record is anything to go by though, I should just be happy to be greater than 50%.
Weekly disclaimer that pontificating on games from the sidelines is much easier than actually playing games and that also I am very liable to possibly just being straight up wrong! Anyways, let's go over 'em!
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Week 2 Recap

Spiked-up Glalies

vs

Psystrike Padawans
violet river < Vileman
I predicted: violet river
River followed up week 1 by bringing yet another spikeless offense. This one featured a CB Tar that did half the work of killing it by itself with Double-Edge recoil. Vileman brought a classical SkarmMag 6. Pretty early on watching this one, I was thinking it could be a Blissey 6-0 (even though it's CM Bliss here. Why??) and when Vileman's last was revealed as Aero, it was truly curtains. Key turn here is probably turn 16. With Tar dead for River and Bliss healthy for Vileman, I think River was starting to feel the momentum slip away and tried to wrestle it back with an aggressive DD. She's probably hoping Vileman would just layer up or maybe even try a cheeky protect heal; even a Roar would mean nothing really is lost. Instead, Vileman just lands a Toxic. River actually probably still has a roll on turn 17 to just sweep the game, but DDs again (something of a mind game turn). From there, River pretty much gets choked out. Seeing what the rest of Vileman's unrevealed team ended up being, I suppose the real mistake was trying to use the Mence as a breaker instead of a finisher in the first place. If she's a little more patient with the Mence, it should end up sweeping easily. Honestly, I think the Bliss revealing CM early on probably messed with River a lot and she likely expected something completely different in the last two slots from Vileman's team than what it actually ended up being, which dissuaded her from trying to use EndPert before Mence.
Pajama Sam < Genexys
I predicted: Pajama Sam
For the second straight week, Pajama Sam brought pretty much exactly what he is expected to bring and for the second straight week got a pretty even if not solidly favorable matchup. I don't know what this says about the players or this tournament or what it says about prep as a concept in the first place. Anyways, Genexys brought
eden's team from week 1. The game starts off with lead Skarm doing what it does best (dying) and then things momentarily get quite strange as Genexys pretty much straight up sacs his Blissey on turn 7, but PJ Sam inadvertently lets him off the hook because that was so weird. Things go back to reasonable for the next while and then on turn 36 a surprise phys-invested Focus Punch from Pert (apparently this Pert's set is Ice Beam, EQ, FPunch, HP Bug by the way) removes PJ Sam's Bliss. This does allow him to maneuver a Wish to his Tar, but the surprise Toxic from Forre earlier is gonna make it tough even with perfect predicts. Power of surprise coming through in this game for Genexys. Sacing Moltres instead of Pert probably made this endgame a little needlessly difficult though. Anyways, turn 1 kind of ruined this. Imagine if PJ Sam got to leverage a Skarm in this game, and if it ever managed to receive a wish, gg.
Amaranth < Void
I predicted: Void
Not too much of a game here. Void brought a ZapDug take that I most
associate with Fakes, while Amaranth brought U6 but with Zapdos in the Celebi slot. Technically, the Celebi slot on that 6 can be kind of whatever you want (we've commonly seen Tar, but also sometimes have even seen stuff like Snorlax, Regirock, and Heracross as the 6th) as the other 5 are pretty much self-sustaining. I don't really like the choice of Zapdos because as a wall it only really helps cover vs Suicune/Swampert (already well covered by Celebi) and vs mixed attackers (already well covered by DefMie + Bliss). Zap is also lacking as a progress maker compared to all the other possible 6ths I've named. Obviously, the crit forcing immediate Rest didn't help at all here. In theory, Skarm + SpDefZap + Bliss + DDMence is kind of exactly what you would want against Void's team. Maybe because of this exact scenario you can argue for leading with Zap, but then you don't really have a good line vs lead Tar. Even after everything, DD EQ Mence actually would have just swept at the end.
Mikon > eden
I predicted: eden
I said in my predict for this game that you always have to be a little afraid eden will overcook and that's kinda the basic story here, as he brought what I guess you'd call spikeless balance. He also played aggressively and Mikon just kinda didn't cooperate with it. Turn 5 eden switches Tar to Gar, a sensible play because it accounts for both Lax staying in and a flying type switching in. In hindsight, maybe it was unnecessary though because even if something switches into EQ, you have all of Starmie, Blissey, and Gengar's health to deal with it instead of having to trade Gengar for Lax. Then turn 9 is just ambitious. Maybe eden figures if the Celebi is the response to CB Slide that means it's definitely gonna Recover, but if it's offensive, Giga Drain should just kill too. The other thought is Dug in the back shouldn't be expected at this point. I feel like with Lax down and knowing what the rest of eden's team is, he definitely can just let Tar go and Dug follow-up from there. Instead Dug gets killed and then Celebi just soloes.
BO3:
Conflict < Prinz
I predicted: Conflict
Game 1 Prinz brought the new age JoltSpikes with Forretress. I swear to God this team's winrate in tours is like 99%. Conflict brought what I guess we can again call spikeless balance, a pretty weird one. Prinz pretty much just had all the answers with Counter Forre and the power of Modest Gar blasting through Claydol. Not a close game. Game 2 they both brought Dug offenses. This matchup was pretty funny because Conflict's Regice on paper should do immense work to Prinz's 6. However, Prinz's Zap ends up being Sub BP with Toxic, the perfect set for this matchup. Prinz's Zap just goes complete gamewrecker mode here and destroys for another not close game. Props to Prinz for such an impressive bounce back after a frustrating week 1.

Goo Goo Claydols

vs

Mighty Psyducks
Rambode < DarthTyros
I predicted: DarthTyros
A quick one here. Rambode brought what I guess you call kind of like a new age Skarm Beatdown squad and Tyros brought uhhh CMPass I guess maybe? Honestly not sure if that's what it was or not. On turn 6, Rambode has no real switch in to Swampert on this team and is hoping Tyros will not want to risk all his Pert's health so early. However, since Tyros's Zap immediately died, he appears to have no real MixMence answer either, so he just stays and that pretty much decides the game. Rambode's Meta also gets immediately burned by Fire Blast, removing the possible out.
Forte < Siglut
I predicted: Siglut
As expected after a week 1 Smeargle flop, Siglut went in the complete other direction with some fat. Forte brought the Medicham sample. The first part of the game looks quite good for Forte. The game starts to get swung on turn 21. Forte decides to bring Medicham in. Pretty reasonable as it is a massive threat to Siglut's team. But then, Siglut makes the heads up move of just STossing as Medi tries to Focus Punch. It's a good move because not only does it just deny a FPunch (or a potential Shadow Ball denying Claydol pivot), but even if Forte just Brick Breaks there at least you've got damage on Medi to put it in range of a lot of stuff like Dol's EQ, Zap's TBolt, a roll with Suicune Surf, so Medi is less threatening later on. In the end, Medi takes a chunk out of Bliss and about 40% out of Rachi. Good progress, but far from the disaster it could have been. Turn 28 is another super key turn. Forte goes for DD, probably expecting a Protect, but Siglut just goes for Wish. This means Rachi is back online to potentially try to deal with Lax later, which is obviously massive. Forte tries to catch it on turn 32, but Siglut knows Rachi's health is too key at this point. Story of the game, Siglut kind of just won the key turns here.
Sinodin > Buzzed27
I predicted: Buzzed27
Buzzed brought some Slop (same 6 as River actually), while Sinodin brought a new take on Venusaur spikes. We start out with a turn 1 misplay as Buzzed goes for EQ in the Tar mirror, ensuring Sinodin gets a completely free spike. Definitely not the click you're supposed to make, and the game would have been completely different without it. Things gets recovered as Celebi does some good breaking, but then the other big mistake of the game happens on turn 13. There's just really no good reason to keep Registeel in here. It gets the ultimate punish by being crit, but this was wholly avoidable. Kind of funny that Buzzed actually maybe won this game with a second CM on turn 28. Certainly can't blame him for just going for it though, I thought Sinodin's last was gonna be Gengar or Aero.
WraxiusGaming < Figull400
I predicted: WraxiusGaming
Wraxius brought a neat looking Houdini offense featuring OffGon and Black Glasses (?) Suittar. I will say this 6 is probably way too weak to mixed attackers, but maybe Figull looked like the person to bring it vs. Unfortunately for Houdini, Figull led with Zapdos. It takes all the way until turn 29 for Metagross to get its opportunity again. This was definitely a key turn and both players thought on it for a while. It was kind of just one big mind game. If Wraxius booms on Zapdos or Swampert, she's in a pretty strong position, but if she booms into Tar, Figull probably should be able to just clean up. Figull makes the decision to go Pert, honestly pretty crazy because I would have expected boom to come most of the time, but even if Mash, every bit of Pert's health is so valuable for Flygon. Wrax then misses Mash on the next turn, which kind of seals things.
BO3:
zinc > Kristyl
I predicted: Kristyl
Game 1 saw nearly identical teams, both using Mag offenses with only 1 mon differentiating. Kristyl has SDPass Celebi + Aero, while zinc has CM Celebi + Gyara, kind of like a take off the old
Asta team. Mirrors or near mirrors are always kind of funky, and I'm not sure there's much to analyze here. They kind of just traded into each other until fittingly it comes down to a face-off of the two different Celebi sets. zinc gets a crit at the perfect time to seal it, but to be fair Kristyl did get an important crit earlier. Game 2 was quite something. Kristyl has a very interesting team, CloyMagDol with CB Gon, while zinc has
Triangles' week 5 SPL team. The entire sequence from turn 9-13 is pretty funny, ultimate volatility. Game may just be over if the Counter lands there though. It looks like Zap + Rachi are gonna kinda just kill all, but then it turns out CB Gon is the one who kills all. Wild game. Game 3 was a lot more normal and there isn't much to say about it. zinc has a pretty basic CMPass squad, and Kristyl has no real response to +1 Zard, so zinc gets a big leg up and then pretty much just trades to the end. I guess turn 6 is the key because Kristyl opts to get a spike up instead of Roaring. Generally, the Celebi user always attacks on that turn because you don't want to pass and get Roared for nothing, but I guess zinc hard called out the spike. I think I'm kind of surprised Kristyl spiked though, because I'm not sure what she does next turn if Celebi attacks and it looks like a 2hko on Skarm. I suppose she'd just go Zap and TWave but we didn't find out in this game who was faster between zinc's Celebi and Kristyl's Zap, so that definitely could have been risky if it just allowed Celebi to slowpass (even if it meant eating a Drill Peck) too.

The RaikOUs

vs

Thunder Twins
Zpanther < robjr
I predicted: Zpanther
Not a whole lot to say, this one kinda played itself for both sides. Robjr has a MixZap lead to open things up for Rachi and Jolt in the back, pretty old school idea. Rob makes the solid play that pretty much secures the game of doubling in Rachi on turn 16. He also gets rewarded with a crit that mattered. If Zpanther gets a boom off there with Forre and then Mence follows up, maybe he still has a chance if Bliss can avoid 2hko from Jolt. Zpanther can then try to find Mence entires on Pert. It would have been interesting at least. Although, funnily due to Aero shenanigans, Zpanther actually ends up a flinch or Toxic miss away from winning this game anyways.
DepressionCherry < Sato07
I predicted: Sato07
Sato brought one of the CyberOdin standards, the old eden ZapDug sample, although he changed the Tar to CB. DepressionCherry's team looks like a big no fat fish and I guess you can say it landed. On turn 13, DC greedily doesn't heal Bliss, which probably affects how the next several turns play out as it's now susceptible to being Dug'd. It's kind of just very tough from here for DC because he can't really force damage onto Zap. I think he had to try something different from what he did though. For example, on turn 25-26 he really just completely accepts Bliss dying instead of at least trying to pivot Mence in.
ima mint yerb > xtinaxendrix
I predicted: n/a (xtina > ima)
Xtina brought U6 and mint yerb brought DefMie double blob SDPass with SubTect lefties Aero. Yeahhh. Apparently this build is courtesy of Spreek, who is on xtina's team. It's an interesting one, though I'm unsure it really has a plan for Gengar. So, there's probably a ton you can say about this game and we all had fun watching it unfold in the ML chat, but I don't think I have the energy and patience to go over specific turns here with game state analysis. I think Yerb sort of mismanaged things probably to start the game and then was a little too cute with the SDPass and later completely did not recognize how crucial PP was going to be which all contributed to this game being a bit harder than it needed to be. For her part, Xtina played pretty good most of the game, trying her heart out to make this doable. Ultimately, SDPass vs U6 should be kind of impossible for U6, this game just ended up very weird for a lot of reasons. Anyways, all you need to know is Yerb just barely managed to win a PP war basically.
SamuelBest < Janis105
I predicted: Janis105
Janis brought
Spreek's game 2 team from week 1 and SamuelBest brought Skarph 2k. Lead Gengar is always a strange one to face; it usually indicates a special-based offense that really wants to force the issue vs Tyranitar. It used to kind of exclusively indicate Hypnosis, but we've seen some messing around with some other ideas in recent times, and that is the case here. It clicks Destiny Bond turn 1 vs Tar, which on the surface seems kind of odd for a couple reasons. First, what if the Tar had clicked Dragon Dance? Well, you probably have to be specifically Jolly Lum to justify a turn 1 DD and that's a set that hardly seems to exist period right now, but especially does not exist at lead. So, you really probably don't have to worry about giving up free setup. The second much bigger reason turn 1 DBond looks strange is because doesn't that only work if it's a Tar with Crunch and otherwise you're just giving away that you have DBond and gain nothing? Well, I was tipped off that apparently this Gengar has 0 Defense IVs, so it actually will die to any Rock Slide too. It's an interesting idea that I think actually works well because Lead Gengar is a mon that heavily dissuades switching due to the threat of Hypnosis. SamuelBest opts to switch to a Blissey, which is a fair play to scout for Hypnosis (though it can go very bad if the Gar was CB Brick Break or even just opts to straight up boom vs Tar leads to Dug follow-up, which is not impossible). The problem now on turn 2 is SamuelBest kind of still doesn't really have a good move. Janis could easily just aggressively boom here, so you probably don't really want to keep Bliss in, but going back to Tar might just be playing right into what Janis wants too. They opt to just play mind games for a few turns and then SamuelBest decides to trade a burn on Skarmory for his spike, which I agree with. The Gar-Bliss showdown repeats on turn 12 and this is one of the key turns of the game. If staying with Bliss was risky before, it really doesn't seem like the prudent play now, because you've already given up the burn on Skarmory and the best scenario with staying now is I guess you kill Gengar as it Wisps or FPunches in a failed overprediction which really doesn't seem that realistic. The other reason to stay is you might think Janis will double to something to catch Skarm because going Skarm is obvious, but in that case you still probably don't really want Bliss in. Anyways, Janis indeed just booms now and it OHKOs Bliss. All is not totally lost because SamuelBest has an Aero spikes team vs a very Aero weak team. They trade down some and then turn 25 is the other likely key turn of the game. Janis is representing very likely DDMence and SamuelBest's DDMence answers are not amazing as he has Tar that cant take a hit, a burned Skarm, Aero, and a Pert with some chip on it already. He decides to just keep Tar in with the logic that if he DDs it will be a bit easier for Pert to beat it with it already hit by a Tar Rock Slide, and if he just kills Tar then Aero is fine to clean up (this part turns out to not exactly be true). It's probably better to just Sac skarm (even if Mence DDs and then flinches Skarm, you're probably still ok) and then go Pert, or maybe even just hard Pert and sac Skarm later. Tar still has a lot of value in this endgame. Anyways, Janis just kills the Tar so now Aero can come in and just Slide. Then turn 27 is also a bit muddy because if you stay with Aero and don't flinch as they Tbolt and live after sand, you lose. However, if you switch as they Sub or HP Grass a Pert switch, you also likely lose. Even if you switch as they Tbolt, you have to play double switch mind games later. I saw some questioning of the ultimate decision here too, but I think I'm completely fine with the decision to stay and Slide. Janis avoids flinch (and avoids high roll maybe?) and wins.
BO3:
Endill < Spreek
I predicted: Spreek
Game 1 Spreek brought kind of like a new age Forre offense thing. Not very convinced by this build to be honest; set choices feel a bit off. Game ends up very close with Endill pulling it out, assisted by a Fire Punch burn. Game 2 Spreek goes with a different offensive spiker and the game gets basically decided early on. Spreek decides to pretty immediately boom Cloyster which is a risky move vs what's representing as some fat SkarmDol stuff. It works out because he crucially Toxics an incoming Claydol rather than blanking with Tbolt, and then on turn 7 Endill is in a really awkward spot which Spreek takes advantage of. From there, Spreek just breaks through. Game 3 Spreek has
the team NoName brought in game 2 of his set last week; this is a team I'm a lot more convinced by. Endill meanwhile has one of his old Smeargle builds. Endill gets pretty good value out of his beagle, but Spreek's Celebi set ends up causing big issues. I think maybe Endill needed to use his Gengar to force things before his team was so weakened, but I think he definitely was unfamiliar and thrown off a bit by Spreek's team.

Degenerate Delibirds

vs

Flawless Juggernauts
isnialan < pkThunderbolt
I predicted: pkThunderbolt
Leech brought a take on JoltSpikes, while isnialan brought
River's 6 from week 1 of SPL. Not much to say here, just a quick offense game. Leech definitely had a pretty strong matchup. Jolt wreaks a lot of havoc here and Starmie was always threatening to sweep with only a bit of work as long as it wasn't in Dug or Aero range. I think isnialan probably expected (and hoped) Leech's last was Gengar and then DDTar had a good shot to win. I definitely thought it was going to be Gengar too, but maybe the Dol matchup is fine with TauntTox Skarm and MixTar.
eternallywandering < Sachumberto
I predicted: Sachumberto
This one was a little bit silly. eternallywandering brought lead Dug + double Normal blob, while Umberto has CMPass with Mag. Mag crucially means Celebi can carry both Leech Seed and Baton Pass, which makes it kind of impossible to deal with. On turn 17, Claydol dies from full health to Starmie Hydro Pump. If the Dol is max HP with no other bulk, Timid max special attack Mie
can OHKO Dol with a high roll. I don't know if eternallywandering didn't calc this and assumed the Mie must have been Modest and therefore outsped by Dug or if he simply didn't know his Dug's speed stat or what exactly, but he sent his Dug in to get killed for nothing. Celebi basically just swept from there, although it kept getting para'd and/or missing Leech Seed which made it take a little longer.
Scally_Wagon < Rubyblood MGDos16
I predicted: n/a (Rubyblood > Scally_Wagon)
MGDos brought Slop featuring Aero, while Scally_Wagon brought kind of an old school looking SkarmDol take. Probably unnecessary to risk letting Aero get Toxic'd right away on turn 3. Scally decided to use Zapdos as the Registeel check, which we see doesn't really work even with Rest. EndPert then does its thing and we can see where having Aero not Toxic'd would have made things quite a bit simpler in this game. I think probably both players misplay turn 35, but MGDos especially does. He can just EQ forever here and it will win 100% of the time. If Scally had switched to Meta on the Double-Edge, Blissey can possibly just outheal as Aero dies to poison. Indeed, Scally probably should have gone to Meta as this choke is their only shot of winning, but then again I suppose the other choke line that wins is Tar clicking and missing Rock Slide there in which case you don't want Meta in. So I guess it's actually just picking what you think is the more likely choke, and it was guessed wrong here.
Caloom < Pak
I predicted: Pak
I'm trying not to just glaze Pak whenever I talk about him, but this was probably the most impressive game of the tournament so far. Caloom's team is definitely very weak to Taunt Gar, but this was still a masterclass in leveraging it, never giving an inch. Turn 42 onwards, Pak just gets every turn right. It was somewhat fortunate that Pak's Skarm didn't get para'd on its spike turns, things could have unraveled if it had. I think maybe Caloom should have been insistent on not allowing Rachi to be burned, at least at that point, as it still could have eventually killed all if Dug traps Tar. Like maybe on turn 45 you can go Skarm instead. It's tough to anticipate you'll truly never get opportunities to heal though.
BO3:
NoName6293 < pixie909
I predicted: pixie909
Game 1 NoName has a wild team. CMPass with Forre and no "true" rock resist. It kind of follows the ideals of the old
Hclat concept where the idea is Forre spikes and trades effectively early and then the rest of the team applies pressure such that spinning is never really worth it for the opponent. You also have mons that generally do well in spikeless matchups. It's definitely at least intriguing. For her part, Blaise has HP Fire Skarmory which is a fun idea for what would otherwise be a very Forre weak 6. This was a fun and interesting game. I'm not sure, but I think maybe the endgame could have been executed in a slightly different and better way for NoName to get a win? Game 2 Blaise has Mag + V5. Kind of hilarious because if Blaise has any 6th besides Mag, NoName likely has a very easy victory with SDPass. NoName obviously gets big luck to actually win here, but maybe Blaise should have been more insistent on keeping Suicune alive. Game 3 NoName has another one of those modern Forre offenses we've been talking about, but Blaise has big 5 which I think is really not what these teams are aiming to face. Blaise made some good plays here and locked up what I'd say pretty clearly was the most entertaining BO3 of the week.
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Week 3 Predicts

Spiked-up Glalies

vs

Flawless Juggernauts
violet river vs Sachumberto - Umberto is 2-0, but kind of feels like he hasn't had to work particularly hard for those wins. River had a slight stumble last week, but still favoring her here.
Pajama Sam vs
Pak - Pak
Amaranth vs
pixie909 - Not sure why Blaise is moving to BO1, maybe time commitment restraints this week? Tough draw for Amaranth to try to get his footing vs.
Mikon vs MGdos16 - Still really don't have a great feel for Mikon, but they haven't had any big clear missteps I don't think. MGDos felt a little shakier, and also has to worry about Jimvitational this week (hype).
BO3:
Conflict vs pkThunderbolt - Leech has been fine so far, but a BO3 vs Conflict is a big test even if Conflict isn't off to a strong start.

Goo Goo Claydols

vs

The RaikOUs
FJ2K vs sky - My impression of FJ2K is that he's generally solid, but at times liable to some messy clicks, though I think he's been a bit better lately. I know sky has results in other gens and this is probably a pretty close matchup, but I've never seen them in ADV and my policy is generally to favor mainers over non-mainers.
WraxiusGaming vs omb - Bit of a similar story to above. I might have more immediate trust in omb than sky in ADV, but Wrax has been looking good and again we have mainer bias.
Rambode vs mint yerb - Two gamers who may be prone to imprecision. Yerb did good to bring something unexpected last week, but still just a slight bit more trust in Rambode for now.
Sinodin vs Ummbr - Really just don't know Ummbr.
BO3:
zinc vs Endill - SPL hangover.

Thunder Twins

vs

Psystrike Padawans
robjr vs Vileman - SPL hangover.
Sato07 vs Genexys - Genexys got a win last week, but probably needed some good fortune to do so. Sato is looking like one of the stronger players in the tour.
xtinaxendrix vs
Void - Very tight mu here I reckon. I think I was right when I said preseason that xtina is improved, but Void is looking solid so far and just has a bit more of a track record as a player.
Zerkas vs eden - Potentially a very funny matchup here as both could easily bring some wack shit. I've always thought of Zerkas as the type of player who can beat anyone and can lose to anyone which makes predicting his games impossible. I'm gonna go with Zerkas here because eden will probably just do whatever he feels like rather than aiming for punishing Zerkas's habits.
BO3:
Spreek vs Prinz - Spreek is bringing some neat new teams this tour, which makes me think he's invested in prep. Prinz is definitely someone who has a clear style he likes in this tier, and I trust Spreek's ability to exploit that.

Degenerate Delibirds

(0) vs (0)

Mighty Psyducks
Caloom vs
Siglut - A lot of players who are 0-2 will kind of roll over and give up, but it also can potentially just free you up from pressure. We'll see what it means for Caloom, but Siglut is yet another tough draw for him.
ADV Andy vs
Figull400 - ADV Andy is pretty smart and is someone who has looked improved lately in Mushi League, but Figull is simply more proven in tours at this level.
isnialan vs
DarthTyros - isnialan is promising, but Tyros may have plot armor.
Scally_Wagon vs
Buzzed27 - Battle of 0-2s who kind of desperately need to show something this week. I've just seen Buzzed in other ADV tours though, so I have to favor him.
BO3: NoName6293 vs
Kristyl - This should be an entertaining one, as both will probably bring interesting teams. Pretty tight call, but Kristyl has an experience edge.
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Not gonna lie, I don't know if I'll keep up writing these the whole tour, it's kind of a ton of work LOL. For now, I'm having fun doing it and don't have much else taking up my mons time, but yeah just no promises going forward... At the very least I'll probably have to simplify it.