At the outset I myself was wary of Knock Off because of it's interactions with Scarved checks. The damage concerns I think are minimal because many checks simply don't care about the damage (Mega-Meta, Mega-Venu, Mega-Crucibelle, Clefable to an extent). Some checks do, though. Kitsunoh is 2HKO'd, Scarf Jirachi and Volkraken (about half the time, every time with Spikes down) are KO'd by Knock Off followed by Close Combat, while SpD Jirachi can survive, but not with a lot of health (Iron Head doesn't KO after LO damage either). Jirachi and Kitsunoh face this issue with Knock Off whenever it is run with a neutral nature regardless of investment, however if CAP does not invest Attack then Volkraken shrugs off Knock Off followed by Close Combat and easily OHKOs with Analytic Fire Blast or Flash Cannon.
That said, if you aren't running the Mixed set Pokemon like Skarmory can soak up an uninvested Knock Off easily and Tornadus threatens a OHKO with Hurricane regardless. Long story short Knock Off does interfere with the threats list, but it only does so with both prediction and investment. Pokemon with lost items are not any more significantly crippled than losing those items generally does to them, and in the case of Jirachi and Kitsunoh they can still Trick away CAP's Life Orb and weaken it that way.
So Knock Off does have consequences. I don't think they are overwhelming but I don't think they are insignificant. What I can say is that Knock Off affects checks significantly only on an invested mixed set, which I think is an argument in favor of it being a balanced support option. Right now I'm holding it In Consideration, possibly going to a poll.
While you address the concerns about damage, Knock Off still lets CAP22 get around its Scarfed checks and counters too well, even if it runs 0 Attack EVs and a Timid Nature. In fact, there exists a precedent for a Pokemon like CAP22 with this move: Tornadus-T. CAP22 is already similar to Tornadus-T in many ways: they have access to powerful special STAB move(s), Fighting-type moves, and a pivoting move that does little or no damage. They will be even more similar if CAP22 has access to Knock Off. While not too many common scarfers actually threaten Tornadus-T, one in particular does: Choice Scarf Crucibelle. While it's not common, it will serve to support my point that Knock Off, with the right prediction, unnecessarily lets CAP22 beat some of its checks and counters.
Consider Choice Scarf Crucibelle's match-up with Assault Vest Tornadus-T, by far Tornadus-T's most common set in CAP due to its ability to check Cawmodore with Heat Wave.
Tornadus-Therian @ Assault Vest
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 96 HP / 160 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature / Hasty Nature
- Hurricane
- U-turn
- Knock Off
- Heat Wave / Superpower / Focus Blast
Choice Scarf Crucibelle, in theory, should be a very good switch in to AV Tornadus-T. It resists both of its attacking moves:
160 SpA Tornadus-T Hurricane vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Crucibelle: 84-100 (23.7 - 28.2%) -- 94.4% chance to 4HKO
160 SpA Tornadus-T Heat Wave vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Crucibelle: 49-58 (13.8 - 16.3%) -- possible 7HKO
In case you're wondering about the Fighting-type moves:
0 Atk Tornadus-T Superpower vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Crucibelle: 123-145 (34.7 - 40.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
160 SpA Tornadus-T Focus Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Crucibelle: 124-146 (35 - 41.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
While U-turn and Knock Off do damage some damage, they're used for their secondary effects. Scarf Crucibelle also outspeeds (if it still has its Scarf) and defeats Tornadus-T with both of its STAB moves:
252 Atk Life Orb Crucibelle Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Tornadus-T: 663-780 (205.2 - 241.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Life Orb Crucibelle Stone Edge vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Tornadus-T: 439-523 (135.9 - 161.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
However, Tornadus-T has two ways to prevent Crucibelle from checking it as effectively. The first is Knock Off. If Crucibelle switches into Tornadus-T and has its Choice Scarf knocked off, Crucibelle no longer outspeeds Tornadus-T, and on the next turn, Tornadus-T can outspeed and use U-turn on the next turn and switch to a physical tank or wall. This remains true for the rest of the match. If Crucibelle switches into Tornadus-T, it can easily tank one of its moves, but then Tornadus-T use U-turn on the next turn. In short, Crucibelle cannot check Tornadus-T at all (until the end of the battle ofc) because Tornadus-T had access to Knock Off.
The other way Tornadus-T can prevent Crucibelle from checking it as effectively is U-turn. If Tornadus-T uses U-turn as Crucibelle switches in, Tornadus-T can escape safely and switch to the physical tank or wall. While Tornadus-T escaped on the switch, Crucibelle can come back in to check it again later on in the match.
Notice the difference between Knock Off and U-turn. Knock Off is a permanent way for Tornadus-T to prevent Crucibelle from checking it; whereas U-turn is a temporary method.
This difference is why I believe CAP22 should NOT have access to Knock Off. Scarf Crucibelle is one of the few viable scarfers (i.e. not the only scarfer) that reasonably threatens Tornadus-T. CAP22 should be threatened by many more, including but not limited to Scarf Volkraken, Scarf Mollux, Scarf Kitsunoh, and Scarf Jirachi. The correct response to predicting one of these Pokemon should be Parting Shot, not Knock Off. Parting Shot lets CAP22 to escape these checks, but at the same time it does not permanently cripple them from their job to check CAP22. In fact, going back to the comparison between Tornadus-T, Parting Shot harms these scarfers much worse than U-turn does. U-turn does a little bit of chip damage, but Parting Shot debuffs the scarfer's offenses; most scarfers have no way to boost their offenses back and don't have a offense boosting item to begin with. In other words, CAP22 already has a way, through the use of prediction, to mitigate the effectiveness of these Choice Scarfed checks in the form of Parting Shot. If we give CAP22 access to Knock Off, we stop people from using Parting Shot in these opportunities, which is, in its own way, anti-concept.
tl;dr Knock Off's ability to permanently stop scarfers that should check CAP22 multiple times during a match should be reason enough not to allow it. Tornadus-T gives us reasonable precedent for this issue.
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