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Maybe it's a miss on terminology but I don't know if that was my conclusion.
So traditional Defensive Earthquake Mew is a check to Physical 25f (if given a free switch, it should win every time), and is not a check or a counter for Special 25f. We can move defensive Mew to a counter if we want, by simply ensuring we are always outsped by neutral univested Mew. It will never be a switch-in or wall, however; neutral damage is too stronk from this typing. We're talking sets today as they are played in-meta; of course theoretically the existence of 25f causes a new "Specially Defensive Mew" set with Surf/Scald/Liquidation and enough speed to exactly outspeed us to become meta just to deal with us, but the standard defensive set now is not that.
Double Dance Mew pressures both sets; it isn't a true check or counter due to too many variables, but if it still has its Z-crystal or if it's allowed to set up, there's nothing we can do to harm it before it explodes our brain with its powerful Psychic STAB. We thus would be cautious about coming in on a mutual switch if its Z-crystal is intact, lest we just die to Genesis.
Likewise, we can split Pyroak into two sets:
- Offensive Pyroak is a check to any and all builds of 25f; it cannot afford to manually switch into us, but it has the natural bulk to take a hit and OHKO with Earthquake if given a free switch.
- Physically Defensive Pyroak is a check to Physical 25f only; if it comes in on a move it will get out-actioned and out gunned, and it simply dies to Special 25f without causing much damage. With a free switch, however, it likely staves us off and wears us down with Giga Drain/Leech Seed/Synthesis, especially if we are using recoil moves.
- Neither Pyroak is a counter unless we are slower than it (not likely, given how slow Pyroak is), since it takes massive damage from switching in manually.
I think it's a fair thing to consider; we should make sure as we do final stat distribution that 25w can beat us as well. Most Water STABs do, but I think it's fair to say we want it to be a safe switch-in and true counter to us, meaning we'll need it to have the speed to outspeed us or the bulk to stomach (multiple) neutral fire hits. I am not TL, but I think it's definitely a thing we should focus on since 25f is going to have so much power and so few safe switch-ins.
It may not have been your conclusion, but it was my conclusion. It's hard to tell at this point what will and won't be a check or a counter because we don't know what the stats or ability of 25f will be. My "switch in" lists are all of the Pokemon that take at most neutral damage(M-Aggron being an exception) that are also somewhat bulky. I didn't have a specific stat threshold for bulkiness, just whatever I thought might work. So many of these won't end up actually being counters or even checks. I'm considering reordering them by their "bulkiness" relative to a physical or special attacker so that it will be easier to draw a line where we think 25f should be.
I've been trying to watch this carefully before posting anything, just so I could get a grasp on the general direction this was going, and there's a couple gaps I'm noticing people aren't thinking about.
I wouldn't call Pelipper a full-on counter just yet. Almost all Ground types share strong rock coverage (meaning Stone Edge could theoretically 2KO the seagull with a decent Attack stat and any potential power-boosting items). That being said, unless we are sold on not giving this thing any Rock coverage, I believe Pelipper is more accurately depicted as a hard check.
Similarly for Lando-T, Zygarde, and Gliscor, I would also put those as hard checks. Hidden Power Ice can at the very least put in some seriously massive dents on them on switch. Given that standard Lando-T is able to 2KO from a -SpA nature uninvested base 105 spA to check said threats, theoretically, we can 2KO them (assuming Life Orb or other boosting items) with Hidden Power Ice (assuming the lowest our spA stat will probably* be is 75/85) . The rest really comes down to our final speed stat as to whether they're checks or hard checks, but for the time being, because of that I would also reclassify them.
Otherwise, I'm gonna toss my agreement with Granny Pie's extensive list (exceptions being Mega Sableye as an answer bc it can't be burnt, Mega Aggron beating Physical 25f bc they normally don't run EQ, Plasmanta bc Water Pulse is pretty niche, although you can still argue for it, and Kyurem-B due to SR weakness and neutrality to its stabs, primarily a possible strong physical fire STAB supported by band/LO/sun)
I've been trying to watch this carefully before posting anything, just so I could get a grasp on the general direction this was going, and there's a couple gaps I'm noticing people aren't thinking about.
I wouldn't call Pelipper a full-on counter just yet. Almost all Ground types share strong rock coverage (meaning Stone Edge could theoretically 2KO the seagull with a decent Attack stat and any potential power-boosting items). That being said, unless we are sold on not giving this thing any Rock coverage, I believe Pelipper is more accurately depicted as a hard check.
Similarly for Lando-T, Zygarde, and Gliscor, I would also put those as hard checks. Hidden Power Ice can at the very least put in some seriously massive dents on them on switch. Given that standard Lando-T is able to 2KO from a -SpA nature uninvested base 105 spA to check said threats, theoretically, we can 2KO them (assuming Life Orb or other boosting items) with Hidden Power Ice (assuming the lowest our spA stat will probably* be is 75/85) . The rest really comes down to our final speed stat as to whether they're checks or hard checks, but for the time being, because of that I would also reclassify them.
Otherwise, I'm gonna toss my agreement with Granny Pie's extensive list (exceptions being Mega Sableye as an answer bc it can't be burnt, Mega Aggron beating Physical 25f bc they normally don't run EQ, Plasmanta bc Water Pulse is pretty niche, although you can still argue for it, and Kyurem-B due to SR weakness and neutrality to its stabs, primarily a possible strong physical fire STAB supported by band/LO/sun)
I totally agree with you with the Rock coverage that most Ground.types have access to. That being said, and taking a look at Pipotchi's chart, we can see that the type combinations that resist our STABs are always Flying-type, i.e., they have a Rock-weakness. Strong Rock Coverage kind of means that our checks and counters will need bulk to deal with CAP 25f, as they are either hit with a strong STAB or SuperEffective coverage.
I've been trying to watch this carefully before posting anything, just so I could get a grasp on the general direction this was going, and there's a couple gaps I'm noticing people aren't thinking about.
I wouldn't call Pelipper a full-on counter just yet. Almost all Ground types share strong rock coverage (meaning Stone Edge could theoretically 2KO the seagull with a decent Attack stat and any potential power-boosting items). That being said, unless we are sold on not giving this thing any Rock coverage, I believe Pelipper is more accurately depicted as a hard check.
Similarly for Lando-T, Zygarde, and Gliscor, I would also put those as hard checks. Hidden Power Ice can at the very least put in some seriously massive dents on them on switch. Given that standard Lando-T is able to 2KO from a -SpA nature uninvested base 105 spA to check said threats, theoretically, we can 2KO them (assuming Life Orb or other boosting items) with Hidden Power Ice (assuming the lowest our spA stat will probably* be is 75/85) . The rest really comes down to our final speed stat as to whether they're checks or hard checks, but for the time being, because of that I would also reclassify them.
Otherwise, I'm gonna toss my agreement with Granny Pie's extensive list (exceptions being Mega Sableye as an answer bc it can't be burnt, Mega Aggron beating Physical 25f bc they normally don't run EQ, Plasmanta bc Water Pulse is pretty niche, although you can still argue for it, and Kyurem-B due to SR weakness and neutrality to its stabs, primarily a possible strong physical fire STAB supported by band/LO/sun)
This is a more dangerous assumption. We don't want to poll jump. We can run loose dummy calcs since we know we're making an Offensive Fire/Ground mon with a BST of 515-535, so (for example), we're unlikely to be terribly bulky and we're unlikely to have less than a 100 in our primary attacking stat. It's fair as Frostbiyt pointed out that we're not guaranteed to be especially fast so we can't assume we outspeed even super slow 'mons like Pyroak. But we can assume our relative neutral damage based on past offensive fire starter examples like Typhlosion. When worrying about how hard we hit neutrally, I'd say we should ere on the side of caution and assuming we'll demolish things that don't have a resist due to our concept - we're not going to be giving this thing just Blaze + Pick-Up or Magician (i.e., flavor and niche abilities). It's going to have something that puts some real fuel into its offensive presence or lets it set-up or something else insane.
What we cannot assume is coverage. Yes, most ground types learn Rock moves in-game. But if we determine that having access to powerful Rock coverage threatens the entire metagame, we will not give this thing access to any significant rock move. Indeed, I think as we have been discussing, the fact that very little outside of flying types with a fire resist are good switch-ins to us makes it extremely unlikely we're going to give this thing access to powerful Rock moves. Likewise, if we determine that this thing is so dangerous that any HP is a threat to our ability to be reliably countered and checked, we will likely tank SpA and go physical.
I've been trying to watch this carefully before posting anything, just so I could get a grasp on the general direction this was going, and there's a couple gaps I'm noticing people aren't thinking about.
I wouldn't call Pelipper a full-on counter just yet. Almost all Ground types share strong rock coverage (meaning Stone Edge could theoretically 2KO the seagull with a decent Attack stat and any potential power-boosting items). That being said, unless we are sold on not giving this thing any Rock coverage, I believe Pelipper is more accurately depicted as a hard check.
While the coverage fact is true, we are not forced to give it certain moves, if there is a good motivation.
So, if we decide that Pelipper will be a counter, we will probably ban the Rock coverage
I've been trying to watch this carefully before posting anything, just so I could get a grasp on the general direction this was going, and there's a couple gaps I'm noticing people aren't thinking about.
I wouldn't call Pelipper a full-on counter just yet. Almost all Ground types share strong rock coverage (meaning Stone Edge could theoretically 2KO the seagull with a decent Attack stat and any potential power-boosting items). That being said, unless we are sold on not giving this thing any Rock coverage, I believe Pelipper is more accurately depicted as a hard check.
Similarly for Lando-T, Zygarde, and Gliscor, I would also put those as hard checks. Hidden Power Ice can at the very least put in some seriously massive dents on them on switch. Given that standard Lando-T is able to 2KO from a -SpA nature uninvested base 105 spA to check said threats, theoretically, we can 2KO them (assuming Life Orb or other boosting items) with Hidden Power Ice (assuming the lowest our spA stat will probably* be is 75/85) . The rest really comes down to our final speed stat as to whether they're checks or hard checks, but for the time being, because of that I would also reclassify them.
Otherwise, I'm gonna toss my agreement with Granny Pie's extensive list (exceptions being Mega Sableye as an answer bc it can't be burnt, Mega Aggron beating Physical 25f bc they normally don't run EQ, Plasmanta bc Water Pulse is pretty niche, although you can still argue for it, and Kyurem-B due to SR weakness and neutrality to its stabs, primarily a possible strong physical fire STAB supported by band/LO/sun)
Don't make assumptions like that, as that would be considered polljumping. That being said, I actually agree with the thought process of Pelipper being a full counter (the StAB is so potent we need to establish them.)
Something I want to point out for the good of everyone is that we do not have to follow the threatlist by the letter. That assumption has put us in a bind before, especially during Jumbao’s process. I also sense we are going to have a similar collision when we try to determine how to beat something like Phys Def Clef while maintaining something like Gliscor as a counter. It’s okay if a counter becomes a check at the end of the day. We shouldn’t be able to beat what our counters should be consistently, but if we don’t auto lose to what we want to, that’s okay.
As things stand now, here is what we have for CAP 25f:
Switch in: The list of Pokemon on which we should be able to have a easy time switching in and then forcing them out, more than once in a game. This doesn't mean that we should be able to come into any of their moves, just their most commonly used ones.
Tapu Koko: all sets
Clefable: all sets
Zapdos: all sets
Magnezone: all sets
Magearna: all sets lacking SubZero Slammer, All-Out Pummeling
Mega Scizor: all sets
Jirachi: all except Body Slam and Z Celebrate
Plasmanta: all sets
Skarmory: all sets
Amoonguss: all except Spore and Foul Play
Ferrothorn: all sets
Celesteela: defensive
Mollux: all sets
Mega Sableye: all except Foul Play
Pressure: The list of Pokemon that might threaten us, but should not be able to switch in easily. They should not be able to check us easily.
Mega Crucibelle: all sets
Volkraken: Choice Scarf
Tornadus-T: Z Hurricane
Syclant: all sets
Greninja: all sets
Kerfluffle: All-Out Pummeling
Stratagem: all sets
Jumbao: Scarf
Gliscor: all sets
Tomohawk: Offensive
Checks and Counters: The list of Pokemon should, in some way, threaten us. This might mean that they will probably be able to beat us 1v1, or at least severely cripple us. Certain Pokemon, in particular Revenge Killers might be included both in here and in Pressure, because once they switch in, they should be able to check us.
By necessity, some of these are conditional according to whether CAP 25f goes physical or special (mixed is very difficult to quantify)
Clefable: Defensive, Magic Guard; Can't do much to hurt 25f, but CAP 25f has a hard time killing it. Physical only.
Landorus-Therian: Scarf, Defensive Physical only.
Mega Latios and Mega Latias: all offensive sets
Gyarados: all sets
Pelipper: all sets
Tomohawk: Defensive Physical only.
Pyroak: Defensive, Special Defensive
Arghonaut: Defensive, Special Defensive
Pajantom: Special Defensive Special only, Offensive
Mega Aerodactyl: all sets
Mega Swampert: Rain sweeper
(and many other lesser used Rain sweepers)
Chansey: all sets
Gastrodon: Special Defensive Special only.
Slowking: Assault Velt Special only.
If any more come up, they can still be discussed at the end of this stage, when we wrap up. Let's open discussion on the questions in the OP for CAP 25w!
These pokemon are all counters to 25w, being able to switch in on a neutral or resisted hit from 25w and beat it 1v1, either by threatening supereffective damage or just being immune to anything 25w might pack and punishing it hard for that.
Tomohawk (if 25w gets hazards, this'll spin them away, further cementing it as a counter; but air slash/hurricane is enough)
Landorus-T (only if it's Z-Fly or running Stone Edge/Rock Slide, and the rock stipulation is dependent on 25w's physical bulk and ability to hit back)
Ferrothorn (doesn't hit 25w supereffectively but walls it and can use its switch-out to set up hazards)
Tapu Koko
Hawlucha (if its terrain is already up, this can switch into 25w and sub/swords dance on the switch-out)
Krilowatt
Necturna (Shell Smashes and threatens with Stone Edge)
Pajantom (its scariest with Brave Bird but even without it, the fact that it resists both of 25w's stabs and is immune to status makes it a great counter nonetheless)
Tornadus-T (Defog on the switch-out)
Cyclohm (Slack Off on the switch-out if its not specs)
Zapdos (Defog or Roost on the switch-out)
Cawmodore (Belly Drum on the switch-out)
Gyarados (Dragon Dance on the switch-out)
Naviathan (the Dragon Dance set can set up and click Facade, while CM can taunt 25w and Calm Mind- though the success of that is dependent on 25w's coverage)
Pelipper (resets rain effectively for free)
Mollux
Plasmanta
Salamence (Dragon Dance on the switch-out)
Skarmory (can either Defog or set up hazards on the switch-out)
Tapu Fini (Defog or CM on the switch-out)
Azumarill (Belly Drum on the switch-out)
Then there's these pokemon, which switch in and wall 25w purely by typing, but can't do much to punish it in return; meaning how effective they are as counters is dependent on 25w's own moves, stats and ability
Arghonaut (the support set can set up Spikes but that's about it)
Toxapex (sets up Toxic Spikes on 25w but not much beyond that)
Gastrodon (this can toxic and then spam recover, but how effective that is depends on 25w's movepool)
One that automatically stands out as something that CAPw can consistently switch into to me is Defensive / Scarf Landorus-Therian. These sets consistently do not carry coverage that effects CAPw to a great degree, since they commonly run Earthquake/Hidden Power Ice/U-turn/Stealth Rock or Defog. Earthquake is easily be best attack it has against it, and it doesn't get even close to dealing enough damage.
252 Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Golisopod: 72-86 (18.2 - 21.8%) -- 99.6% chance to 4HKO after Stealth Rock (using 95/95/95 as a baseline for the sake of a point)
Flyinium Z still mostly checks us if the Z-Crystal is fresh, but otherwise can't really touch us. Probably would end up as a pressure matchup, since Flyinium obviously kills us, and Swords Dance could seriously dent us if Landorus is given the chance to setup.
Spikes and Double Hazard Greninja can also majorly struggle since they commonly do not run Rock Slide, which would be the best way to combat CAPw. Otherwise, thier moves are mostly 3HKOs, which lets us stall them out for PP and Toxic.
Agree with above list, it displays counters quite well. I know that talking about type generalizations is generally frowned upon right now, but pretty much anything that resists our Water STAB is going to be able to pressure us massively, and if it resists our Bug STAB it pretty much counters us from a typing standpoint, aside from stuff like Toxic. Steels like Naviathan and Ferrothorn almost completely counter us from a typing standpoint including Toxic.
Adding onto the post above, Zygarde sets without Outrage do absolutely nothing to us. ESpeed might be an issue depending on the set, but at the very least Double Dance and Sub DD sets do little with a +1 ESpeed against max Defense 90/90 bulk. Don’t have the calc on me rn but someone can back me up
Another mon I believe 25w definitely should be able to pressure at least somewhat is Colossoil. Given the two major Colossoil sets in the meta at the moment (Guts and AV), 25w resists Colossoil's STAB Earthquake and at very most takes neutral damage from its Dark STAB and other Normal attacks, and in turn can threaten it offensively with both of its STABs. Obvious 25w isn't going to be a terribly offensively-oriented mon, but ideally 25w is going to be hitting Guts Colossoil pretty hard just based on typing alone. As for the AV set, that largely depends on the movepool of 25w, but that's something we can deal with later when we talk about that topic.
I'm not saying we're dunking on it, but maybe once in a while we're batting the ball outta this mans hands
I think Water/Bug is gunna have the messiest list of counters for now, because we dont know yet what kind of ability direction it might go- maybe something defensive that helps it beat its checks better, or something offensive to maximise its impact on the opportunities it gets to switch in and threaten the other side. If we got something like Tinted Lens, 80% of those typing-based "counters" drop from the list for instance.
The most important list for this one is probably the stuff it actually checks, cus that is something we can decide early and is perhaps the main selling point of this defensively-inclined pokemon.
CAP 25w should stand a chance of beating:
Mons that utilize Ground type moves, as well as Ice/Ground which this typing holds a key resist to:
Any Landorus (problem moves: Fly/Z-Fly, Stone Edge/Z-Stone Edge, Explosion?)
Standard Syclant (problem moves: Tail Glow)
Any Zygarde (problem moves: Outrage/Z-Outrage, Toxic)
Any Colossoil (problem moves: Knock Off?)
Any Gliscor (problem moves: Acrobatics? Knock Off?....)
Standard Mega Swampert (problem moves: none)
Standard Gastrodon (problem moves: Toxic)
Any Fidgit (problem moves: none?)
Fighting types that dont utilise (or have weak) Rock coverage:
Standard Revenankh (problem moves: Toxic, Will-o-Wisp)
Any Keldeo (problem moves: none? scald burn?)
Standard Arghonaut (problem moves: Toxic, Knock Off)
Offensive Steel types:
Dragon Dance Naviathan (problem moves: Taunt, Wild Charge)
Lead Excadrill (problem moves: Rock Slide)
Setup Mega Scizor (problem moves: Toxic?)
Jirachi (problem moves: none)
Other unmentioned Water types:
Greninja/Ash Gren (problem moves: Rock Slide, boosted Dark Pulse)
Standard Mega Gyarados (problem moves: depends on our defenses, but Z-Fly from regular)
Plus, other mons who have super-effective or neutral hits not strong enough to break through.
Every Pyroak
Tangrowth
Ferrothorn
Could be lots of mons here tbh
Looking at the problem moves might be a good way to get a role for us- for instance there's a lot of Toxic and Knock Off users here that we would like to switch into but dont want to be crippled for the match. We also have a number of fantastic physical moves with Bug that doesnt necessarily mesh with our Water typing that may want to switch into Scald (albeit rare in CAP) or neutral Lava Plumes from the likes of Pyroak for instance. An ability that has a way to shake off the effects of status might be a good route to take for the defensive side- and a lot of defensive abilities of that nature also have the benefit of alleviating SR damage (directly or indirectly) and therefore increasing switching opportunities.
Alternatively, we could try and maximise our strength when we switch into these Pokemon to pressure the opponent. It would be good to switch into EQs from opposing Pokemon and like Mega Scizor, destroy them before they can use the correct coverage move with the fantastic priority that Water/Bug has to offer (First Impression, Aqua Jet, Water Shuriken), while offering you momentum or enormous hits if they switch with attacks like U-turn, Megahorn, Attack Order, Crabhammer, Hydro Pump etc. The benefit to priority here is that Water/Bug can increase its switchin opportunities massively if it doesnt need to worry about taking 2 hits (for instance it can feel comfortable coming in on HJK from Mega Medicham and then First Impressioning to ko without having to fear Zen Headbutt, Tpunch, whatever) and can be played more aggressively against a wider range of pokemon.
Tldr; Water/Bug is a good typing with a decent offensive coverage and a few key resists. However, where it falls short is its SR weakness, and therefore weakness to getting 2hkod with Rocks on the field or extra susceptibility to being worn down. Being able to move between getting 2hkod, or having something that gives it a better matchup vs rocks are imo two decent paths based on the list of Pokemon it wants to check. This is available through a range of offensive and defensive abilities.
Ran a Calc with Choice Spec Ash-Greninja using Dark Pulse against a 110/110/110 bulk dummy spread with fully invest HP and Sp.Def with a +Sp.Def nature and the results were:
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja-Ash Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Golisopod: 150-177 (35.3 - 41.7%) -- 74.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
It can also prove to be a effective wall to prevent this transformation
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Golisopod: 112-133 (26.4 - 31.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
So CAP25w can Pressure Ash-Greninja, and other sets aside from Choice Scarf as it carries Rock Slide
This is using the same bulk that was used earlier
176 Atk Protean Greninja Rock Slide vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Golisopod: 170-204 (40 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
So I am looking at out potential water starter, and I'm thinking about the typing of Water/Bug and what it brings to the table. The big things that come to mind are resistances to Ground, Steel, and water. The Ice and Fighting resists also matter, just less to me on first observation as compared to the other three. Right off the bat there are a few issues I have, a rocks weakness on a defensive mon makes me sure to factor in rocks damage to all calcs I go near. That said there are a few things I want this Water Bug to switch into for me to consider legitimately using it outside of using it just to force myself to utilize it. I guess this means they fall under Switch In.
Zygarde @ Choice Band
Ability: Aura Break
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Thousand Arrows
- Extreme Speed
- Iron Tail
- Toxic
SubSet up Zygarde can cheese a lot of its more defensive match ups, so I wont go crazy wanting us to beat all Zygarde sets 100% of the time. However, a banded set, especially one without Outrage is something that my ground resist has to be able to deal with. Some exception to the Grass/Fairy types out there, but they do enough extra to make up for it. But for our Bug/Water I'd really like it avoiding the 2hko with rocks up safely from Banded Arrows.
Greninja-Ash @ Choice Specs
Ability: Battle Bond
EVs: 4 Def / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Hydro Pump
- Dark Pulse
- Water Shuriken
- Spikes
It's time for our water resist to step it up. with rocks up I'd like if we can come in on Battle Bond Greninja. I specify Battle Bond since I'm ok with being able to prevent a transformation, and having a bit more trouble if they manage the evolution. I'd like us to be comfortable vs pre transformation Greninja though since I'd hate us to turn into a Gastrodon where something like Rocks + a spike Gren likes to get up on switches equals a solid chance to 2hko + Dark Pulse flinch fishing in binds to hax through when combined with 2 chances to crit if you go for it.
Biggest rain abuser in the tier, we resist all moves except for the rare Stone Edge. So barring Edge variants this is something we need to be able to stop. Kingdra and Ash Gren in the rain will probably be a bit to much, but Pert is something we should solidly beat.
Landorus-Therian @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 252 HP / 240 Def / 16 Spe
Impish Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Earthquake
- Hidden Power Ice
- U-turn
Scarf sets without Rock Slide/Stone Edge and standard defensive sets should be easily switched into. Pretty simple, check these sets, and fear scarf sets with rock moves, or offensive Z-Fly and Z-Edge sets. This comes back to my ground resist handling some of the better ground types in the tier.
Heatran @ Leftovers
Ability: Flash Fire
EVs: 252 HP / 4 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Magma Storm
- Earth Power
- Taunt
- Toxic
It would be great if we turn into a reliable switch in to Lefties Tran. Offensive Tran might be something of a lost cause, but max HP Tran should be well within our grasp. we resist Earth Power, threaten it with out Water type stab, and can potentially be bulky/offensive enough to take a Magma Storm in stride (even if we don't include rocks in this calc since we come in on the teams rocker here). We either need enough bulk to be okay if our hopeful recovery gets taunted, or enough offensive pressure to Force Tran out tho.
These are the main mons that came to mind. Another possible mon we should try to check is like the First Syclant set in the analysis (can't copy CAP smog analysis set imports, that's super annoying btw, so wont post the import) with a description. Obviously we should check more than just these mons, but being able to handle all of these would be an amazing result. This is a tall order for any mon to accomplish, but if our Water starter manages this It would definitely have a place in the metagame.
Once again, I'm going for 95/95/95 bulk for calcs. I understand that this is a massive underestimate, but I think that it is a good baseline for at least part of this stage, since these can be scaled up and still work. I don't want to go with a higher spread like 110/110/110 just in case the stats need to be redistribute and that amount of bulk is lowered. I want these personally to be stuff that can work under most spreads, but I consider 95/95/95 to be a minimum value.
Anyways, Colossoil has come up as a heated topic for a mon. Its a mon that we should absolutely switch into on paper, due to our resistance to Earthquake and super effective STABs. However, the biggest obstacle for blocking Colossoil is Facade. When Guts boosted, Facade is able to break through us quite consistently with Rocks on the field, even going to as high as 110/120 bulk and still break through us according to Discord. However, that is the only major obstacle for it. As such Assault Vest Colossoil and any Flame Orb variant that doesn't have Facade can be switch into fairly consistently. This is a calc with my 95 spread but there is certainly room to grow for it.
252+ Atk Colossoil Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Golisopod: 136-162 (34.5 - 41.1%) -- 56.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
I agree with Pipotchi's list of mons, but I do have two problems with it.
-Naviathan has began to run Facade a lot more commonly than before, and that is certainly a problem move since we currently don't know if we will be able to stop setup with it and Guts boosted Facade hurts like hell. I think that Naviathan is still a matchup in the air for right now due to Facade, as well as Wild Charge. I think for right now it should instead be a pressure matchup, since it can switch into stabs but not the other moves, and as of current is complete setup bait for it.
252 Atk Guts Naviathan Facade (140 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Golisopod: 166-196 (42.1 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
- While I still agree that CAPw should switch into it, and I don't really have any major problems with its placement there, Ferrothorn is a matchup that we still can really struggle against, just because its limited how much we will be able to do back since we can't Toxic it. Only major thing we can hope for is Scald burns or the possibility of Knock Off. If we are physical this is straight up not a good matchup because of Iron Barbs. In return, Ferrothorn can stall us out with Leech Seed and Power Whip, knock off our item with Knock Off, and pretty much set hazards up in our faces. We can technically switch into anything this Pokemon is able to throw at us, but calling it a matchup we have a good chance of beating is a very hard sell.
Otherwise I am fine with it, and I think it is a solid list.
Going onto mons that check/counter us...there are a lot of them. Here's a list.
Tomohawk: All variants. Kills us with Flying STAB and we likely won't have enough power to break through its priority Roost. Toxic is an option against it though. Landorus-T: Flyinium (and Rockium if viable). Z-Crystal needs to be fresh, otherwise CAPw can wall us out with switching out. Stone Edge though can be used to massively pressure on other sets. Other sets can set stealth rock, which can make it a pain to switch in. Mega Crucibelle: All variants. Head Smash will kill us, is immune to Toxic, and is resistant to Bug STAB. Could have to watch out for super effective Water attacks based on attacking stats and offensive bias. Magearna: All variants. Takes our attacks like a small breeze and pretty much uses us as free momentum on AV and kills us with Thunderbolt on Shift Gear. Tapu Koko: All variants but Screens. Resists our STABs and can murder us with Electric Terrain boosted STAB. Bulkier sets can also heal off chip damage with Roost. Hawlucha: Can kill us with Acrobatics once set up, but needs the setup to do so since HJK is resisted. Has to watch out for Scald burns as well. Krilowatt: Life Orb. Could struggle to get the kill with Discharge if we are bulky enough, but we can't do much back to it. Even Toxic doesn't work thanks to Magic Guard. Mega Pinsir. Automatically threatens us out with Aerialate moves, and could setup on us thanks to resistance to Bug STAB. Has to watch for water STAB if powerful enough. Syclant: Tail Glow. Once set up, can break through us with Tail Glow Bug Buzz. Before then is a bit of a risk due to Water STAB if strong enough. Tornadus-T: Flyinium Z. Hurricane will kill us and SSSS will kill us more. Can shrug off our attacks with Regenerator. Cyclohm: All variants. Super resistant to our STABs and can force us out with either Discharge, Draco Meteor, or both. Toxic will dent it though. Gastrodon: All viable variants. Immune to Water STAB and resistant to Bug STAB. Ends up as a war of attrition with Toxic. Magnezone: All variants. Resistant to STABs and can murder us with Thunderbolt. One of the most solid counters as of current thanks to Toxic immunity.
others I don't feel like naming right now cause its late
Once again, I'm going for 95/95/95 bulk for calcs. I understand that this is a massive underestimate, but I think that it is a good baseline for at least part of this stage, since these can be scaled up and still work. I don't want to go with a higher spread like 110/110/110 just in case the stats need to be redistribute and that amount of bulk is lowered. I want these personally to be stuff that can work under most spreads, but I consider 95/95/95 to be a minimum value.
Anyways, Colossoil has come up as a heated topic for a mon. Its a mon that we should absolutely switch into on paper, due to our resistance to Earthquake and super effective STABs. However, the biggest obstacle for blocking Colossoil is Facade. When Guts boosted, Facade is able to break through us quite consistently with Rocks on the field, even going to as high as 110/120 bulk and still break through us according to Discord. However, that is the only major obstacle for it. As such Assault Vest Colossoil and any Flame Orb variant that doesn't have Facade can be switch into fairly consistently. This is a calc with my 95 spread but there is certainly room to grow for it.
252+ Atk Colossoil Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Golisopod: 136-162 (34.5 - 41.1%) -- 56.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
I agree with Pipotchi's list of mons, but I do have two problems with it.
-Naviathan has began to run Facade a lot more commonly than before, and that is certainly a problem move since we currently don't know if we will be able to stop setup with it and Guts boosted Facade hurts like hell. I think that Naviathan is still a matchup in the air for right now due to Facade, as well as Wild Charge. I think for right now it should instead be a pressure matchup, since it can switch into stabs but not the other moves, and as of current is complete setup bait for it.
252 Atk Guts Naviathan Facade (140 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Golisopod: 166-196 (42.1 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
- While I still agree that CAPw should switch into it, and I don't really have any major problems with its placement there, Ferrothorn is a matchup that we still can really struggle against, just because its limited how much we will be able to do back since we can't Toxic it. Only major thing we can hope for is Scald burns or the possibility of Knock Off. If we are physical this is straight up not a good matchup because of Iron Barbs. In return, Ferrothorn can stall us out with Leech Seed and Power Whip, knock off our item with Knock Off, and pretty much set hazards up in our faces. We can technically switch into anything this Pokemon is able to throw at us, but calling it a matchup we have a good chance of beating is a very hard sell.
Otherwise I am fine with it, and I think it is a solid list.
Going onto mons that check/counter us...there are a lot of them. Here's a list.
Tomohawk: All variants. Kills us with Flying STAB and we likely won't have enough power to break through its priority Roost. Toxic is an option against it though. Landorus-T: Flyinium (and Rockium if viable). Z-Crystal needs to be fresh, otherwise CAPw can wall us out with switching out. Stone Edge though can be used to massively pressure on other sets. Other sets can set stealth rock, which can make it a pain to switch in. Mega Crucibelle: All variants. Head Smash will kill us, is immune to Toxic, and is resistant to Bug STAB. Could have to watch out for super effective Water attacks based on attacking stats and offensive bias. Magearna: All variants. Takes our attacks like a small breeze and pretty much uses us as free momentum on AV and kills us with Thunderbolt on Shift Gear. Tapu Koko: All variants but Screens. Resists our STABs and can murder us with Electric Terrain boosted STAB. Bulkier sets can also heal off chip damage with Roost. Hawlucha: Can kill us with Acrobatics once set up, but needs the setup to do so since HJK is resisted. Has to watch out for Scald burns as well. Krilowatt: Life Orb. Could struggle to get the kill with Discharge if we are bulky enough, but we can't do much back to it. Even Toxic doesn't work thanks to Magic Guard. Mega Pinsir. Automatically threatens us out with Aerialate moves, and could setup on us thanks to resistance to Bug STAB. Has to watch for water STAB if powerful enough. Syclant: Tail Glow. Once set up, can break through us with Tail Glow Bug Buzz. Before then is a bit of a risk due to Water STAB if strong enough. Tornadus-T: Flyinium Z. Hurricane will kill us and SSSS will kill us more. Can shrug off our attacks with Regenerator. Cyclohm: All variants. Super resistant to our STABs and can force us out with either Discharge, Draco Meteor, or both. Toxic will dent it though. Gastrodon: All viable variants. Immune to Water STAB and resistant to Bug STAB. Ends up as a war of attrition with Toxic. Magnezone: All variants. Resistant to STABs and can murder us with Thunderbolt. One of the most solid counters as of current thanks to Toxic immunity.
others I don't feel like naming right now cause its late
Tapu Koko, Cylcohm, Gastrodon, and Magnezone are all hit neutrally by one of our STABs. While I agree that they threaten us based on their kits, if CAPw has at least one decent offensive stat it's not a total wash. Especially against Gastrodon since we resist both its stabs. Electric attacks definitely hurt though.
Necturna is a Pokemon that can give us some trouble unless we opt for powerful priority since we don't resist either of her STABs and she hits us neutrally with both.
+2 252+ Atk Tsareena Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mew: 292-345 (72.2 - 85.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
With rocks up she can just Power Whip and steamroll us.
Tapu Koko, Cylcohm, Gastrodon, and Magnezone are all hit neutrally by one of our STABs. While I agree that they threaten us based on their kits, if CAPw has at least one decent offensive stat it's not a total wash. Especially against Gastrodon since we resist both its stabs. Electric attacks definitely hurt though.
I saw this list of mons, and they interested me (Interested me since I have nothing to do), and made me think about how should our CAP 25W match up vs some of these threats. Since I agree with not taking anything for granted, so figured we can break this down, and see where it goes as far as should these mons be considered reliable switch ins to our starter if CAP 25W has some solid offensive stats. Also I am just extremely bored, so I am finding something to do with my time.
(Little disclaimer for offensive calcs coming from our supposed starter; I used non-invested base 80 attack and special attack. I used Scald as it's super stereotypical for fat waters, and leech life since I was calcing from a Golisopod and it was already on the set. Also the calcs are based off of what defensive stat for the mon in question is lowest, like hitting spdef Gastro on the physical side for example.)
0 SpA Golisopod Scald vs. 12 HP / 0 SpD Magnezone: 78-93 (27.4 - 32.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
Magnezone is a bulkier steel, even if you're running a scarf set. I think Magnezone should definitely be marked as a switchin since it can more than likely come in 2-3 times a game (considering you click Scald everytime for max damage) and also is immune to Toxic. Not saying our mon has to have Toxic, it's just been thrown around as a possibility a lot in this thread so worth mentioning as an asset. Also zone would of course take our bug on even better if the bug was physical since Zone is rocking a Def stat of 115 as compared to 90 SpDef.
0 Atk Golisopod Leech Life vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Gastrodon: 97-115 (22.8 - 27%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
We don't really do much to Gastrodon, and it has Recover. This one turns into relying on utility moves to deal with/take advantage of it. I consider Gastrodon a switch in right now since at the very least it pivots in and can be used to double discouraging a water move helping get in something like a M-Crucibelle who will scare us out but fears our water stab coming in. We also can confirm Gastrodon has Toxic which helps too.
0 SpA Golisopod Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tapu Koko: 91-108 (32.3 - 38.4%) -- 97.1% chance to 3HKO
We do a decent amount, but with Koko commonly running Roost unless screens, which was specified, Koko should reliably come in and threaten with Tbolt. Specs doesn't come in a ton, so might be worth noting even tho that set is practically dead, and physical sets do risk an annoying Scald. I suppose if you wanted to get specific, which is kinda the point, Calling Special Kokos with Roost a Switch in is appropriate. The other two sets are definitely checks though.
0 Atk Golisopod Leech Life vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Cyclohm: 63-75 (17.6 - 21%) -- possible 5HKO
Does very little with Leech Life, and is threatend by Tbolt/Volt Switch/Discharge. Also if it's physdef Cyclohm, Scald actually does more. This should be a no brainer check/counter since it has Slack Off to keep it from getting low. Also we come back to potentially Toxicing Cyclohm for chip, but Cyclohm is continuously forcing our starter out making them potentially get chipped down heavily by rocks throughout the game evening that out (also lol at hitting Toxic).
This was a fun little task I unnecessarily gave myself. Hope it's pretty clear that Cyclohm and Gastro should be very solid switchins, most Kokos will also be coming in just fine, and Magnezone should be coming in 2-3 times but can't suffice as a teams only answer to this thing in theory.
I saw this list of mons, and they interested me, and made me think about how should our CAP 25W match up vs some of these threats. Since I agree with not taking anything for granted, so figured we can break this down, and see where it goes as far as should these mons be considered reliable switch ins to our starter.
(Little disclaimer for offensive calcs coming from our supposed starter; I used non-invested base 80 attack and special attack. I used Scald as it's super stereotypical for fat waters, and leech life since I was calcing from a Golisopod and it was already on the set. Also the calcs are based off of what defensive stat for the mon in question is lowest, like hitting spdef Gastro on the physical side for example.)
0 SpA Golisopod Scald vs. 12 HP / 0 SpD Magnezone: 78-93 (27.4 - 32.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
Magnezone is a bulkier steel, even if you're running a scarf set. I think Magnezone should definitely be marked as a switchin since it can more than likely come in 2-3 times a game (considering you click Scald everytime for max damage) and also is immune to Toxic. Not saying our mon has to have Toxic, it's just been thrown around as a possibility a lot in this thread so worth mentioning as an asset. Also zone would of course take our bug on even better if the bug was physical since Zone is rocking a Def stat of 115 as compared to 90 SpDef.
0 Atk Golisopod Leech Life vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Gastrodon: 97-115 (22.8 - 27%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
We don't really do much to Gastrodon, and it has Recover. This one turns into relying on utility moves to deal with/take advantage of it. I consider Gastrodon a switch in right now since at the very least it pivots in and can be used to double discouraging a water move helping get in something like a M-Crucibelle who will scare us out but fears our water stab coming in. We also can confirm Gastrodon has Toxic which helps too.
0 SpA Golisopod Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Tapu Koko: 91-108 (32.3 - 38.4%) -- 97.1% chance to 3HKO
We do a decent amount, but with Koko commonly running Roost unless screens, which was specified, Koko should reliably come in and threaten with Tbolt. Specs doesn't come in a ton, so might be worth noting even tho that set is practically dead, and physical sets do risk an annoying Scald. I suppose if you wanted to get specific, which is kinda the point, Calling Special Kokos with Roost a Switch in is appropriate. The other two sets are definitely checks though.
0 Atk Golisopod Leech Life vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Cyclohm: 63-75 (17.6 - 21%) -- possible 5HKO
Does very little with Leech Life, and is threatend by Tbolt/Volt Switch/Discharge. Also if it's physdef Cyclohm, Scald actually does more. This should be a no brainer check/counter since it has Slack Off to keep it from getting low. Also we come back to potentially Toxicing Cyclohm for chip, but Cyclohm is continuously forcing our starter out making them potentially get chipped down heavily by rocks throughout the game evening that out (also lol at hitting Toxic).
This was a fun little task I unnecessarily gave myself. Hope it's pretty clear that Cyclohm and Gastro should be very solid switchins, most Kokos will also be coming in just fine, and Magnezone should be coming in 2-3 times but can't suffice as a teams only answer to this thing in theory.
Sorry I missed bug buzz, whoops. It does 25.9 - 30.7 which has a 2.4% chance to 4kho after lefties, so Cyclohm still switches in very easily. Also was cut supposed to be Cyclohm? Sorry idk that slang. If so the reason I put 0 def in was just to show in the calcs best case scenario for leech life, as I did these all at once and did this one last, so probs just stuck with the moves I had in the calc already - laziness on my part as it’s not hard to see Cyclohm was probably the best stop to our water bug out of the 4 without running a single calc just based on typing, bulk, and access to recovery. I apologize for the mistake none the less.
Also if cut was supposed to be gastro, still not sure, they all run spdef but I’m pretty sure you’re talking Cyclohm. Which once again was just going us switching in with no bulk for an all sets perspective since offensive does have a set in the calc.
Sorry I missed bug buzz, whoops. It does 25.9 - 30.7 which has a 2.4% chance to 4kho after lefties, so Cyclohm still switches in very easily. Also was cut supposed to be Cyclohm? Sorry idk that slang. If so the reason I put 0 def in was just to show in the calcs best case scenario for leech life, as I did these all at once and did this one last, so probs just stuck with the moves I had in the calc already - laziness on my part as it’s not hard to see Cyclohm was probably the best stop to our water bug out of the 4 without running a single calc just based on typing, bulk, and access to recovery. I apologize for the mistake none the less.
Also if cut was supposed to be gastro, still not sure, they all run spdef but I’m pretty sure you’re talking Cyclohm. Which once again was just going us switching in with no bulk for an all sets perspective since offensive does have a set in the calc.
This is probably the subject for a further thread but I think CAP 25w should have a way to deal with Toxic since we want it to deal with Zygarde, which runs Toxic even more than in OU due to the ubiquity of Tomohawk mainly. The SubToxic variants are especially good in this metagame and CAP 25w has the added advantage of STAB Bug Buzz (granted it will be specially oriented on the offensive) which bypass Substitute, giving it a pretty significant advantage over other Zygarde's checks.
Anyway, my point is that I don't think considering Pokemon like Gastrodon or any Defensive oriented Pokemon like Arghonaut which doesn't care about CAP 25w's STABs as answers, at least not if they are crippled by Toxic themselves, which CAP 25w could likely be running too since it would probably end up being a wall, and if they have to rely on this move to significantly hinder CAP 25w. In my opinion a staller that have to win a Toxic war cannot be used as a counter to another staller.
I don't want to make any poll jump and I apologise if it looks like it, but I think that some assumptions about further competitive stages are sometimes kind of necessary.
Had scribbled some notes over the weekend, but a lot of the 'mons I did half-conscious calcs on are already covered itt (such as AV Colossoil, most Zygarde sets). All calcs below are on a "dummy spread" with 95/95/95 bulk (and max investment), 75/75 offense (with no investment), a neutral nature, Lefovers as our item of choice, and no relevant or competitive ability. A few more 'mons we can switch in on are...
We switch in on Defensive Mew and always win. It's easier if we're biased towards special. 0 Atk burned Golisopod Leech Life vs. 240 HP / 156 Def Mew: 58-70 (14.4 - 17.4%) -- possible 8HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Golisopod Bug Buzz vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Mew: 152-182 (37.9 - 45.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Mew Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Golisopod: 26-31 (6.5 - 7.8%) -- possibly the worst move ever
We check and pressure Double Dance Mew. If it hasn't spent its Z-crystal it's rough, as Genesis Supernova is 52-61%, and a Psychic Terrain-enhanced Psychic is another 38-46%, making it tough for us to switch in to it without its Z-crystal spent. If its crystal is spent, we can hope to switch in on Rock Polish or an attack; we beat it as long as it hasn't used Nasty Plot, but it gets a lot shakier with a +2 unless we, again, have some sort of rapid powerful recovery.
We've actually got a shot against Mega-Latios: 252 SpA Latios-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Golisopod: 204-240 (51.7 - 60.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
-2 252 SpA Latios-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Golisopod: 102-120 (25.8 - 30.4%) -- 9.7% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 Atk Golisopod Leech Life vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Latios-Mega: 134-162 (44.5 - 53.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
0 SpA Golisopod Bug Buzz vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Latios-Mega: 146-174 (48.5 - 57.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
The first Meteor is a max of 61%, and the second only 30%. As a result, we can come in on this set and have some small chance of living two meteors. Obviously it gets better if we come in on a predicted not-meteor, as we resist Earthquake and only take 40% from Psychic. We also do better if we have some way to recover more faster (outspeeding this or other speed boosts) or if rocks aren't an issue. But if we wanted too, we could make Mega-Latios something we are a reliable switch in to. If gets harder versus Latias. as we likely don't threaten it fast enough and it can start setting up on us with Calm Mind. At the very least, our BUG stab Checks both of them .
One recurring theme is that I believe we need to be able to punish, prevent, ignore, reset, or race set-up. Lots of stuff we could switch in on we instead just check because of set-up: Hoopa-U, Double Dance Mew, Dance Zygade, M-Latias, M-Lopunny. And other ‘mons use us as set-up fodder such as M-Scizor and Naviathan; we would have a shot at messing with M-Scizor if it wasn’t for his ability to just Swords Dance at will.
Here is our compilation for CAP 25w! If you see other important Pokemon that got missed, there will be time to bring them up during the wrap-up at the end of the stage.
Landorus-T: sets without Supersonic Skystrike
Zygarde: sets without Outrage
Mega Scizor: Swords Dance, Curse, Defog
Revenankh: Bulk Up
Colossoil: Assault Velt, Flame Orb without Facade
Syclant: all sets without Bug Buzz/Leech Life
Mega Swampert: all sets
Fidgit: all sets
Keldeo: all sets
Arghonaut: all sets
Jirachi: Support
Mega Gyarados: all sets
Hawlucha: Seed Swords Dance
Necturna: offensive sets
Mega Crucibelle: Coil, All Out Attacker
Stratagem: all sets
Tapu Bulu: all sets
Tomohawk: all sets
Ferrothorn: all sets
Tapu Koko: all sets
Krilowatt: all special sets
Jumbao: all sets
Necturna: non-offensive sets
Pajantom: all sets
Tornadus-T: all sets
Cyclohm: all sets
Zapdos: all sets
Gyarados: all sets with Supersonic Skystrike
Naviathan: all sets
Pelipper: all sets
Mollux: all sets
Plasmanta: all sets
Tapu Fini: all sets
Azumarill: all sets
Arghonaut: all sets
Toxapex: all sets
Gastrodon: SpD
Let's open discussion on CAP 25g, based on the discussion questions in the OP!
