Intimidate: Intimidate seems to be received pretty well. Intimidate is a pretty generic ability that softens up physical hits for CAP 26. This is especially notable when facing Pokemon like Mega Mawile, Weavile, and certain Tyranitar sets. However, when looking further into it, I find that, despite the fact that it's a good catch-all ability, it really doesn't do that much when considering the overall metagame. I find this to become especially apparent when considering that Intimidate will not *really* save it from anything on our C&C list, it really only improves the matchup against Pokemon that CAP 26 already has a good enough matchup against.
The metagame is extremely specially focused right now, which means if CAP26 is going to be a successful pivot, it'll probably need some shoring up on the specially defensive front. Intimidate, for obvious reasons, doesn't accomplish this. It should help against Mega Tyranitar, weakening its Earthquake and Fire Punch; Mega Mawile, helping against every attack except for Brick Break and Fire Fang; Kartana (though the MU is still a little dire with Sacred Sword); and Garchomp (which can use Swords Dance relatively easily though and likely 2HKOs at -1 anyway). However, this leaves us still completely vulnerable to Tapu Lele, Mega Alakazam, Focus Blast Tornadus-T and Magearna, Aurumoth, Mega Diancie, etc. Basically, CAP26 needs to focus on alleviating some of these specially offensive threats, and I don't think Intimidate really helps in this regard.
Magic Guard: While having an immunity to Spikes damage is great, especially for a Steel-type pivot, the concern that it may enable CAP 26 to function more like a wallbreaker is valid, especially because it most likely wouldn't run Doom Desire, because it wants more direct damage output. However, considering the role of most Steel-types in the current metagame, I do believe that CAP 26 would much rather use Magic Guard for its defensive than offensive capabilities. My question for this ability would be: are we confident enough to "risk" the possibility of turning CAP 26 into a more offensively geared Pokemon to unlock Magic Guard's defensive potential? Additionally, I'd like to hear as many thoughts about Magic Guard vs Levitate.
Magic Guard would be a great catch-all ability for CAP26, and I'm pretty sure that we can avoid becoming a wallbreaker if we become slower. However, I think there's a better option for us if we want to avoid Spikes that also helps with our ability to pivot much more effectively. (Read below!)
Levitate: Similarly to Magic Guard, Levitate grants CAP 26 an immunity to Spikes. However, more notable than that, it also helps CAP 26 deal with Pokemon like Garchomp, Mega Latios, and certain Landorus-T sets, which are currently on our C&C list. Combined, this could go a long way for CAP 26 and its opportunities to switch into play to force checkmate situations. I've seen very little, if any, counter arguments to Levitate right now because it seems to be received extremely well, as such, I think it has a high chance to get slated.
Levitate didn't really have me sold for a good while, but it's starting to grow on me. With a 4x resistance to Stealth Rock, Spikes are the main way for teams to chip away at CAP26. However, Levitate alleviates this problem entirely, and it also improves CAP26's ability to switch into key metagame threats. Garchomp will be forced to rely on a Fire-type move to reliably damage CAP26, meaning its flagship Earthquake / Stone Edge / Swords Dance / Stealth Rock set cannot hit it, Earthquake Mega Tyranitar variants will be helpless (can switch to Fire Punch, but then struggles against Toxapex more), Mega Latios will have to use Ice Beam instead of Earthquake, Mega Diancie will have a rougher time without Earth Power, Choice Band Syclant will have to lock into Icicle Crash instead of Earthquake, Tangrowth will have to rely on Grass-type STAB rather than Earthquake to damage CAP26, and CM + Pain Split Magearna can't use Hidden Power Ground to get past CAP26. Assault Vest Tyranitar will have a slightly harder time having to rely on Crunch, but it should still win the 1v1 if CAP26.
Now, you might be thinking that I'm contradicting the points I made in the Intimidate section of my post, as I've just listed a few physical threats that CAP26 more reliably deals with. However, Levitate completely nulls any damage from these threats, while Intimidate at best lowers the damage by a third. That's a huge difference. There's also the fact that we ignore Spikes, Ground-type attacks from relevant special attackers (Mega Diancie, Mega Latios, and CM+ PS Magearna), and Hidden Power Ground from Jumbao and Tornadus-T (though these are falling off, admittedly).
Overall, even if it doesn't affect our Psychic-type MU that much, Levitate helps CAP26 in so many other ways that Levitate is a huge contender for me now. It takes the best of Intimidate and Magic Guard and adds more defensive utility to CAP26.
Bulletproof: Bulletproof has been received really well so far, similarly to Levitate, I believe that it has a high chance to get slated if discussion about it stays roughly the same. Bulletproof is a very notable ability for a Steel-type pivot, especially if our objective is to handle Psychic-types like Mega Alakazam, Tapu Lele, and maybe even Aurumoth. This is a plausible idea considering that CAP 26 is shaping up to be a Steel-type pivot. It also helps out against Focus Blast Magearna, which does not run Fightinium Z very often, if at all. No downsides of this ability besides All-Out Pummeling existing have been brought up, are there any other downsides that we should be wary of?
The downside of Bulletproof, aside from the existence of All-out Pummeling, is honestly opportunity cost, which can be said for most abilities here. By picking Bulletproof, we're not picking another more wide-sweeping immunity ability (or a certain other ability). However, Bulletproof is surprisingly useful. The most relevant moves it blocks for CAP26 are Focus Blast, Aura Sphere, and Shadow Ball. This list might seem pretty innocuous until you realize how common Focus Blast really is.
Mega Alakazam, Magearna, and bulky pinch-berry Aurumoth don't run All-Out Pummeling, so Focus Blast is completely blocked. Mega Alakazam's common Shadow Ball coverage is blocked also, meaning a resisted Psychic or a Knock Off is all it can use to damage CAP26. Although not all Magearna run Focus Blast, Shift Gear Magearna runs Fleur Cannon / Focus Blast / Calm Mind most often; Assault Vest Magearna rarely runs Ice Beam, opting for Fleur Cannon / Volt Switch / Focus Blast / Iron Head; and Pain Split + CM Magearna runs Fleur Cannon and one of Thunderbolt (which we are immune to) or Hidden Power Ground (which is relatively weak). Bottom-line is that Magearna cannot really touch a Steel / Ground type well if we block Focus Blast. Finally, although Aurumoth can run some other coverage than Focus Blast to move past CAP26, having Bulletproof improves Steelium Z CAP26's match up against Aurumoth heavily.
Now, there are other relevant Focus Blast users; Tapu Lele, Tornadus-T, and offensive Aurumoth. These are a little more tricky to deal with because they commonly run Fightinium Z. However, it's pretty easy to scout for Tapu Lele's All-Out Pummeling, depending on how much damage it does with another move, whether or not it actually uses Calm Mind, or if it reveals Hidden Power Fire. Once AOP has been burned, standard Tapu Lele doesn't like to deal with CAP26. Tornadus-T's All-out Pummeling is also relatively easy to deal with; it often wants to hit multiple Pokemon with All-out Pummeling, so if it burns AOP on another Pokemon, CAP26 walls Tornadus-T pretty handily, forcing it to use U-turn, giving it free Doom Desires. Offensive Aurumoth, if it runs Fightinium Z over Electricum Z, most commonly runs Psychic / Electric / Focus Blast coverage, which means once AOP is burned, CAP26 has a good match up with Aurumoth.
All in all, Bulletproof is a great ability; even if it only really deals with 5 Pokemon; Magearna, Mega Alakazam, Aurumoth, Tapu Lele, and Tornadus-T; these Pokemon are extremely relevant, and are generally walled by CAP26 once AOP is removed. I think it ranks a little lower than Levitate for me now, given that Spikes are very relevant, but the combination of Levitate and Bulletproof should be really interesting if we ever go down that route. Regardless, Bulletproof is an excellent choice for CAP26.
Water Absorb / Storm Drain / Dry Skin: While none of Water Absorb, Storm Drain, or Dry Skin have been received particularly well, I do see potential in them. While I realize that these abilities will allow CAP 26 to come in on more defensive Pokemon like Toxapex rather than offensive Pokemon like what was assessed in CA to be optimal, I don't think that this is bad; after all, concepts do evolve after CA. The assessment that Storm Drain is anti-concept is very fair, so it'll probably come down to Water Absorb or Dry Skin if one of these abilities were to get slated. I'd like everyone to think about whether it's okay for CAP 26 to counter Toxapex, Rotom-W, and even check Ash-Greninja. When thinking about this, you should consider the size of CAP 26's C&C list, how this'd affect how CAP 26 is played, and whether this makes CAP 26 overbearing.
I think Water Absorb or Dry Skin are the best choices for this ability, but it most notably helps with our Toxapex matchup - which is important because Scald can do a good bit of damage to us, even if we have good Special Tankiness. Blocking Rotom-W is annoying for it given that it's supposed to counter us, but inflicting a burn and generally not taking much damage from CAP26 should make it a decent stop. Arghonaut and Krilowatt generally don't run Water-type moves, so those shouldn't be factors for this discussion. Putting pressure on Ash-Greninja and Volkraken is nice because they Choice lock, but I'm not sure how great of a stop they are given their secondary STAB moves. It's a cool immunity, but I think we'll get a little more mileage from others like Levitate and Bulletproof.
Flash Fire: With being a bit more controversial, Flash Fire has been discussed a decent amount. While some people consider Flash Fire to be useless considering that Fire-types like Heatran and, albeit niche, Mega Charizard X will still overwhelm CAP 26 regardless of Flash Fire or not, others have expressed their interest in CAP 26 being able to handle other Fire-types like Volcarona and the niche Victini. Additionally, it also helps out with some Jumbao and can be very useful when trying to pivot around Choice-locked Volkraken. Flash Fire really comes down to whether people think the range that this ability covers for CAP 26 is relevant enough.
Flash Fire just...doesn't sound useful if you think about it. While Volkraken choice-locks, most other Fire-type users don't. Mega Charizard X can still use Earthquake for free, Volcarona can still use Hidden Power Ground, Victini (as Jordy says, is niche) can use U-turn, Heatran still has Earth Power, and Jumbao has started to run Focus Blast + Flame Burst. I think the fact that relevant Fire-types a) generally run more than one move that can damage CAP26 and b) don't choice lock as often, means that CAP26 will not get much mileage from Flash Fire.
Grassy Surge: While I have an admittedly hard time warming up to the idea of having Grassy Surge on not-Tapu Bulu, it does have some notable positives. The free Leftovers can be very useful, additionally, the fact that it neutralizes Earthquake can be very handy. However, some people have expressed concerns with the overlap between Grassy Surge and Levitate; is the free Leftovers truly enough to consider it over Levitate, which has an immunity to Ground-type attacks altogether? I'd like some more discussion on this.
Optics aside, Grassy Surge is interesting, but I don't think it's the best fit on CAP26. It's a lot like Intimidate. It really only helps our physical matchups while not improving our Special matchups at all. Garchomp, Excadrill, and Landorus-T can still boost past the terrain, Smokomodo still has Flare Blitz, and Syclant still has Choice Band Icicle Crash. Furthermore, it makes us even weaker to Grass-type attacks, meaning we have weaker matchups against Kartana, Caribolt, and Ferrothorn, which makes us even weaker to the general metagame. Although it admittedly encourages pivoting because auto-setting Grassy Terrain is a useful form of utility, it doesn't improve our stance in the metagame enough and imo puts CAP26 at a net negative in the metagame by weakening our shaky MU against Grass-types.