CAP 29 - Part 3 - Concept Assessment 2

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I understand what you're saying, but you're operating with the base assumption that making Color Change better than an NCA is possible. What if it's just not? We've never had a useable Color Change mon. Situations will absolutely exist where the mon is better off for having Color Change. But situations will absolutely also exist where it's worse off for it. At this point we just don't know if we can make the ability better than an NCA, and if we can't, we no longer have a mon that uses a defective ability, and we've utterly failed the concept. To my mind, it's just too risky for relatively little payoff.
If it really doesn’t work out, it isn’t like we can’t just remove the NCA. I’m positive we can do that if needed. Also, sure, there’s no viable Color Change mon, but the same could be said for any ability that is considered a “defective ability.” The whole point of the concept is to have a defective ability, this is a given.
 

quziel

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If it really doesn’t work out, it isn’t like we can’t just remove the NCA. I’m positive we can do that if needed. Also, sure, there’s no viable Color Change mon, but the same could be said for any ability that is considered a “defective ability.” The whole point of the concept is to have a defective ability, this is a given.
The post-play lookback really isn't supposed to be an excuse to deliberately overtune the mon and then nerf it afterwards; we shouldn't just give it a secondary NCA because it can be taken away. We do not have enough information currently to really say that Color Change is good enough to survive a NCA, so I do not support one being given.
 
If it really doesn’t work out, it isn’t like we can’t just remove the NCA. I’m positive we can do that if needed. Also, sure, there’s no viable Color Change mon, but the same could be said for any ability that is considered a “defective ability.” The whole point of the concept is to have a defective ability, this is a given.
What I'm saying is that this is completely uncharted territory, save for ADV NU Kecleon or whatever. I'm saying we don't really know if we can make it useable, and whether Color Change can be made better than an NCA.

Why can't we just evaluate the mon on its own merits and its standing in the metagame?
 
First, let me say that I am AGAINST giving CAP29 a secondary ability.

Frankly speaking, at this point we don't have much, if any information of how good Color Change is, as it is on one pokemon that has never been above NU ever, and got Protean in gen 6, which completely displaces Color Change (The only real info we have there is that Color Change is worse than Protean there).

With other abilities (Defeatist, Slow Start) I don't think we'd even be having this discussion as they're so clearly worse than a NCA, but with Color Change we simply do not have much information at all. At this point there simply is not enough information to know whether CC fits into the category of "worse than a NCA on everything" or "worse than a NCA on most things" and adding a NCA at this point is saying that it falls into the latter category before examining it. That is not to say that we cannot have a viable product out of it, but simply that making such a strong statement at this stage is foolish. We simply do not have the information to know whether a pokemon that is built for Color Change in every stage would prefer Color Change or Illuminate, and making that decision now will worsen the process.

Do not add a NCA to this pokemon.

At the same time, delaying the decision to the end of the pokemon is, well, still a fairly foolish idea. We should ideally be able to create a balanced pokemon with Color Change, and adding a NCA at the end is functionally just a buff (how minor or great will be decided by the process), which we could just buff it in a manner that works with Color Change rather than one antithetical to Color Change.
I fully agree with quziel's first point here, that we simply don't know whether Color Change is going to be good enough to make a flavor NCA useless (or bad enough to make an NCA better than Color Change). This is why I'd disagree with their last point; I don't see why the decision on a secondary ability needs to be made now.

In terms of secondary abilities, "good" abilities are obviously off the table. I think other detrimental ones including every other ability discussed for CAP29 including Slow Start, Emergency Exit, etc., should also be off the table, because it will just make discussion scattered and unfocused, and may make us pre-occupied with creating a mon that leverages 2 sub-par abilities. This is decidedly not what we've decided the concept is. If I'm misinterpreting the concept, or if you believe there is room within the concept to leverage 2 bad abilities, please do call me out.

That leaves NCAs. I personally am of the view that if we are successful with the concept, and create a mon that WANTS Color Change, it doesn't need an NCA. Giving such a mon an NCA may also mean that if it becomes less viable with Color Change in future meta shifts, it might fall back on the NCA to survive, and I believe that's anti-concept.

Conversely, if during the process we realize that Color Change truly is completely god-awful, then giving it an NCA is a cop-out and CAP29 will run the NCA every time. So there is no need for a secondary ability at all.

However, that is just my personal opinion. Others may have differing opinions. We will simply be better informed and have more substance to base a decision on later. That's why I fail to see why this decision can't be made later, when we have more information on what Color Change actually is.

In the meantime, we will be trying our best to create a mon that WANTS Color Change. That's the concept. I don't think delaying the secondary ability decision will change that at all, or make the discussion unfocused.
 
I don’t think you can make color change better than NCA. That seems super far fetched. Color Change is worse than Slow Start. It literally has no upsides over a typing with 9 resistances, and has massive downsides; loss of STAB, typing controlled by an opponent, etc.

The absolute best case scenario is that we end up walling choice item mons with Water/Fire/Grass/Electric/Poison/Steel/Psychic/Ice/Dark. Just pure mono-Steel typing would do better than that defensively, with 11 resistances/immunities. Likewise, any non choice mon will just juggle us between two coverage moves; at worst it will get resisted every other hit.

This isn’t an ability we make strong. This is an ability we cope with, and mitigate the downsides as much as possible. We will NEVER be able to compensate for the massive losses that are “no STAB” and “mono-type of the opponent’s choice”. That’s just not possible.

If we add NCA, we will see NCA run 100% of the time. If we add Defeatist, we will see Defeatist run 100% of the time. Even Slow Start has significant advantages over Color Change if we end up with a defensive tilt (likely, given the ability has no offensive value and minor mitigatory defensive value). That’s what we are dealing with. Heck, even Truant keeps its defenses!

You’d need something as bad as Normalize to start seeing those numbers drop, and frankly I’d even expect that to get regularly run, given it at least allows us to keep our starting resistances. That’s just how bad it is to have your typing controlled by the enemy.

EDIT: Just to illustrate how bad it is defensively, a random pair of typings only has a 20% chance to resist each way; that’s a 36% chance of a resistance one way, and a 4% chance of both ways. That’s really bad odds.

And that’s ignoring that typically coverage pairs cover for each other, so if a mon carries one of the 9 types that resist itself, it likely also covers a type able to neutrally hit that type.

Color change will never be something this ‘mon benefits from.

To me, no secondary seems like overwhelmingly the best option. This isn’t something like Emergency Exit or Perish Body where you can make it good. This is an ability that will hurt CAP 29 in every game, even if optimized around. We are just trying to stem the bleeding in as many ways as possible.
 
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Short post before we probably switch gears:
I still hold on my earlier position that we should have no ability for secondary ability.
My stance has definitely not changed on continuing the project while trying to build around any abilities in addition to Color Change. I can see the argument for considering an NCA as a sort of check against overbuffing CAP29 and as a way to see if the ability actually works, but I'm not really convinced that it's completely necessary. We will already by working with Color Change instead of around it, as Birkal says, and I think we are already capable of holding to this principle without needing NCA at the back of our minds all the time. I think it will also be fairly clear if our efforts to build a Pokemon that can really utilize Color Change fail, and having the check of an NCA is unnecessary.
In addition, I think that delaying this decision is not a good idea. Even just the possibility of an NCA is going to effect how the process progresses. The only way I think this could work out is if we ignore the secondary ability moving forward, in a similar manner to Entrainment/Slow Start, except it has a higher chance of coming back at a future point (perhaps at its traditional spot, after stats, but maybe even later). Even then, I still feel like that's too big of a distraction. We should make the decision on a secondary ability now, and I think the decision should be for no ability.
 
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Birkal

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Hey, thank y'all for your patience. NitioWO asked why we're discussing the existence of a secondary ability now, and the answer is quite simple: having a secondary ability would change basically everything about CAP29. If we weren't forced to run Color Change, then the entire balance of CAP29 would look different, and we need to know that upfront before we start discussing what CAP29 is going to actually look like.

The overwhelming majority of posts so far have been to have no secondary ability, and I will conclude here that CAP29 will not have a secondary ability... for now. Similar to our previous discussion on Entrainment and Skill Swap, I'm going to give Tadasuke the rights to open up a secondary ability discussion later down the road if he finds it necessary. But we should build CAP29 with the presumption that we only have one ability, and if you were in the camp that CAP29 should get a secondary, I wouldn't hold your breath. The process might lead us down that road in the future, but from where we stand now, it doesn't make sense to allow CAP29 to run another ability and distract from Color Change. Presume that Color Change will be our one and only ability from here on out.

That being said, Jordy brings up a great point about how NCA could be used as a "control variable" for us to see whether or not we made CAP29 in a way that it works with Color Change. I think this is a fascinating discussion point, but I agree with Pipotchi that there is essentially zero reward for us to grant CAP29 a NCA; we can always just theorize what CAP29 would look like with an NCA during playtesting and final assessment stages. DougJustDoug summarized my thoughts on why a secondary is anti-concept, and I agree that sometimes the most straightforward route is the best one. Color Change is a defective ability, so let's leave it at that. Still, moving forward, I'd like for us to consider Jordy's question, and we should all be reflecting on this question: "Are we working with Color Change enough that it would hypothetically be chosen over NCA?"

---

Alright, with that out of the way, I'd like to get into the nuts and bolts of CAP29. The questions I'm going to ask today will run for around 72 hours, and the final set of questions I have (about CAP29's role in the metagame) will be posted after that, before we move into Typing Discussion. Here we go:

Using the CAP Viability Rankings thread, recent CAP metagame statistics, and your own personal anecdotes, please make an informed response to any or all of the following three questions:

9) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame have a natural advantage against Color Change due to the sets they are known to commonly run? Examples here could include mons that run STAB that is super effective against itself (e.g. Spectrier, Garchomp), mons that run coverage and flexible movesets to setup for super effective damage (e.g. HBD Cinderace, offensive Tomohawk with Aura Sphere), or mons that are bulky enough that they'd benefit from us losing our STAB.​
10) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame are indifferent to Color Change due to the role they perform on a team? Examples here could include defensive mons that are primarily providing support (e.g. Toxapex spreading status, Knock mons), or offensive mons that are sweeping regardless of our typing.​
11) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame have a natural disadvantage against Color Change due to the sets they are known to commonly run? Examples here could include mons that run a singular attacking move, mons that run a choiced item, or mons that run multiple offensive moves that wouldn't synergize well into SE damage on a Color Change mon.​

Remember, this is not a place to polljump, meaning you can't presume what our typing is when we switch in. You need to consider solely the advantages and disadvantages of Color Change in a vacuum. You'll also note I was careful to use the term "sets they are known to commonly run" for each of these questions, encouraging us to look at the current CAP metagame, and not what the future might potentially hold. We don't know the end result of what an Astrolotl nerf might look like, and we don't know 100% what OU is going to suspect next. I'd also recommend curbing your opinions on Spectrier, as it's going to Blind Voting today and could be banned (hopefully). Still, I think our metagame is relatively stable enough at the moment that we can still make some good predictions on how CAP29 and Color Change will interact with top threats in our metagame. Finally, I'd encourage you to look at B- tier and above for this conversation, unless you have a really compelling argument to make for a C-rank or Unranked mon. We're looking at the top threats in the CAP metagame, so it doesn't benefit us to look at how Color Change interacts with niche mons.
 
I'm not the most experienced player, but I figured I could take a crack at going down the viability rankings (at least the S and A tiers) and grouping the Pokemon into the three categories presented here.

9) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame have a natural advantage against Color Change due to the sets they are known to commonly run?
:equilibra: Doom Desire/Flash Cannon -> Earth Power
:magearna: Aura Sphere/Focus Blast -> Stored Power/Fleur Cannon. Ignoring Steel here because I don't see Flash Cannon very often.
:slowking-galar: Sludge Bomb -> Future Sight. Alternatively, Flamethrower/Fire Blast -> Scald/Hydro Pump.
:tomohawk: Aura Sphere -> Hurricane
:tornadus-therian: Focus Blast -> Hurricane
:dragapult: Both of its STABs (Ghost and Dragon) are super effective against themselves. The caveat is that Color Change will likely gain an advantage from switching into a coverage move on choiced sets (Fire Blast/Thunderbolt).
:garchomp: Switching into Scale Shot lines you up for another super effective hit, as does Stone Edge/Fire coverage -> Earthquake.
:heatran: Magma Storm -> Earth Power
:krilowatt: Surf -> Volt Switch/Thunderbolt
:landorus-therian: Stone Edge -> Earthquake on SD (or even suicide lead) sets
:zapdos: Hurricane -> Thunderbolt
:kerfluffle: Often choiced, but Focus Blast -> Moonblast is a possibility on Boots sets.
:latios: I'm putting this here because sets locked into Draco Meteor are capable of claiming a kill, but this is iffy because Psychic/Mystical Fire are self-resisted and Aura Sphere is neutral.
:excadrill: Iron Head -> Earthquake
:moltres: Not really an offensive mon, but Fire STAB -> Scorching Sands does sting.
:aegislash: Shadow Ball chains into itself
:cawmodore: Bullet Punch -> Drain Punch. Alternatively, Drain Punch -> Acrobatics. This is kind of iffy because you're probably not hard switching into Cawmodore when it's boosted.
:hawlucha: Close Combat -> Acrobatics
:pajantom: Spirit Shackle and Outrage chain into themselves.
:swampert: Earthquake -> Flip Turn. Doesn't particularly care otherwise.
:gastrodon: Similar to Swampert, Ground STAB -> Scald. Doesn't really care otherwise, though.
:stratagem: Meteor Beam/Paleo Wave -> Earth Power
:venusaur: Follow the circle of Weather Ball (in sun) -> Earth Power -> Giga Drain -> Weather Ball. Alternatively, Grass STAB -> Sludge Bomb.

10) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame are indifferent to Color Change due to the role they perform on a team?
:cinderace: Technically, High Jump Kick -> Zen Headbutt is an interaction, but the common Cinderace moves (Pyro Ball/High Jump Kick/U-turn/Gunk Shot) don't have super-effective interactions that can actually be capitalized. More likely, Cinderace will U-turn out or potentially outright KO with neutral hits, but this isn't particularly an advantage.
:astrolotl: This is subject to change, given the nerf discussions, but based purely on its current role, the only thing it is discouraged from doing is Fire Lash spam. Its tools as an offensive utility Pokemon mean it isn't exactly impeded by Color Change.
:clefable: Moonblast doesn't resist itself, and its other utility isn't blocked.
:slowking: Scald spam can still burn, even if it resists itself. We can potentially resist a second Future Sight after taking the first one, but I doubt either mon is staying in long enough for this to be reliable. Otherwise unhindered.
:hydreigon: Subject to change due to Spectrier voting. It can't spam Dark Pulse, but it does have another move in Earth Power to switch to, and it can generally Defog and Roost unimpeded. I've occasionally seen U-turn, which sets up Dark Pulse -> U-turn, but it doesn't seem to be common right now.
:melmetal: Double-Iron Bash -> Earthquake exists, but this is technically a win because a super-effective Earthquake does less than a neutral Double-Iron Bash. Band sets are disadvantaged enough (especially with Double-Iron Bash being self-resisted) to put it in neutral.
:tapu fini: Potentially dislikes having Hydro Pump resisted, but is perfectly fine spamming its utility (including Scald) and Fairy coverage.
:toxapex: Taking Poison Jab is nice for the resistance and poison status immunity, but otherwise completely indifferent.
:Tyranitar: Crunch is self-resisted, Rock Blast means getting to ignore Sand damage for a turn, and Superpower doesn't combo into itself super well, but Superpower comboing into either STAB (i.e. Rock Blast -> Superpower) is not a good time.
:blissey: May potentially regret using Seismic Toss, then getting hit by a Fighting move, and the fact that it usually runs many non-damaging moves means we can preserve our typing for longer, but is otherwise generally unhindered in its role.
:Ferrothorn: Taking Power Whip means you can dodge Leech Seed, and taking Gyro Ball means resisting both a second Gyro Ball and Power Whip, but otherwise Ferrothorn can do its job.
:nidoking: Sheer Force ignores Color Change entirely, which means Nidoking is indifferent because it can't proc it.
:slowbro: Same as its Johtonian sibling.
:colossoil: I would argue that resisting Knock doesn't matter a whole lot when the first hit is what matters, and Earthquake exists anyways. There's the potential for Knock Off -> U-turn, but offensive sets are not very common right now. Doesn't care much otherwise.
:Mandibuzz: It's capable of Defogging fine, and Dark move -> U-turn is feasible for a chunk, but if it lacks U-turn it's in a bad spot.
:Pelipper: Straight up does not care, although getting to tank consecutive Hydro Pumps is nice.
:Corviknight: I've never seen Body Press and Brave Bird on the same set, and Corviknight does not care otherwise (unless it's running Iron Head for some reason).
:Jumbao: This is a weird setup against Scarf. Tanking Leaf Storm is very nice, but Focus Blast and Moonblast both don't care and Healing Wish is obviously a wash.
:kyurem: Draco Meteor chain is potentially dangerous, as well as Earth Power -> Freeze-Dry, but Ice self-resists otherwise on choice sets, so this is potentially a wash.
:amoonguss: Giga Drain -> Sludge Bomb, though its role means it generally doesn't care, and not being able to Spore after a Giga Drain is annoying.
:arghonaut: Knock Off -> Circle Throw potentially, although its role means it doesn't really care.
:dracozolt: Here for the same reason Melmetal is here. Draco can chain into itself, and there's Bolt Beak -> Earthquake, but a super-effective Earthquake is outdamaged by a neutral Bolt Beak.
:hippowdon: Doesn't care at all, both due to role and due to Earthquake's neutrality against itself.
:tapu koko: Putting it here because the most common set will probably just U-turn out, but Choice sets are stuck being self-resisted on their Electric attacks.
:torkoal: Resisting repeated Lava Plumes and avoiding future burns is nice, but because of its role Torkoal generally doesn't care unless it's the last mon standing.
:zeraora: Similar to Cinderace. Close Combat -> Play Rough technically exists, but more than likely it will just Volt Switch out (and we do get a resist if it used Plasma Fists first).

11) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame have a natural disadvantage against Color Change due to the sets they are known to commonly run?
:Rillaboom: Best blocks Band sets, as Color Change allows it to resist Knock Off/Grass moves. The potential for Grass move -> U-turn/Acrobatics does exist, though it seems to be less common.
:barraskewda: It's being put here because of Liquidation, and resisting Psychic Fangs is also nice, but Close Combat is a wash and Flip Turn means it gets out anyways.
:cyclohm: Actually kind of funky. Draco Meteor being chained is potentially a problem, but both of its other moves (Thunderbolt and Fire coverage) self resist, and taking a Draco means that a second Draco is necessary (as both coverage moves are resisted now), and Cyclohm is probably not doing much otherwise.
:kartana: Put here because self-resisting STABs on choice sets is good for us. However, Knock Off/Smart Strike -> Sacred Sword does exist on Life Orb.
:suicune: I had trouble placing this mon, though I ultimately put it here because resisting multiple Scalds is really nice.
:tapu lele: Technically Focus Blast -> STAB exists, but it's choiced most of the time, and resisting a second Psychic move is nice.
:regieleki: Electric is self-resisting.
:syclant: Most sets are choiced, none of the attacks combo into each other super well, and Ice is self-resisting. The rare Boots set may be able to combo Ground coverage -> Ice STAB, though.
:urshifu-rapid strike: Coming in on Surging Strikes is really nice for blocking further damage, although the rare Protective Pads set could potentially get some damage in still. Neutral otherwise.
:victini: Choiced sets are stuck because all of their common moves are self-resisting, or U-turn. Boots sets get to strike neutrally, though.

This first look is not particularly inspiring, although these are also the best Pokemon in the metagame. I also didn't do much to distinguish Choiced sets from other, more flexible sets, which is where Color Change can potentially gain a big advantage. To be fair, some of these choiced Pokemon are usually spamming non-self-resisting moves (Specs Kerfluffle and Scarf Landorus-T, and to a lesser extent Specs Dragapult and Specs Magearna), but I may have missed some details, and hopefully this is a decent starting point. I may come back to do the B tiers in a separate post.

Changelog:
Edit 1:
Moved Tyranitar from natural disadvantage to neutral. Tyranitar actually runs Superpower way more commonly than I thought in order to not lose to Equilibra, which is a problem when comboed into any combination of STABs.
Moved Melmetal from natural advantage to neutral. It was pointed out that forcing Melmetal to EQ is still a win, since a super-effective EQ does less than a neutral Double-Iron Bash. Band sets are disadvantaged enough (especially with Double-Iron Bash being self-resisted) to put it in neutral.
Moved Nidoking to neutral. As Marty pointed out, Sheer Force ignores Color Change entirely.
Edit 2:
Added B tiers. More of these mons use choice items frequently, often to their detriment. Tried to be as consistent as possible, although there may be some things that don't line up. Mostly agree with quziel's conclusion that we have a decent set of neutral matchups and deal well with the elementals.
 
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Marty

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9) Which Pokemon in the SS CAP Metagame have a natural advantage against Color Change due to the sets they are known to commonly run?
:nidoking: Sludge Wave -> Earth Power. More niche is Ice Beam -> Superpower/Fire Blast, or Fire Coverage -> Earth Power.
Anything with Sheer Force has a natural advantage against CAP29 by default, because Sheer Force boosted moves don't activate Color Change. Nidoking can just click whichever supereffective move it has twice.
 

quziel

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Going through these and ranking according to the following:
++ = Major Damage Decrease (aka switching into either STAB means they gotta rely on neutral coverage)
+ = Minor Damage Decrease (you either benefit hard off of one STAB or they can hit you with a weaker SE coverage move)
/ = Color Change does not affect the matchup
- = Minor Damage Increase (You are either set up by their STAB combo, or they can hit you with SE coverage for more than their STAB)
-- = Major Damage Increase (either chaining together STABs for SE damage, or Self-Weak STAB)

My main assumption is that we are primarily switching into STAB moves, so I'm ignoring some coverage moves for simplicity

S Rank:

:astrolotl: Astrolotl | ++ | This completely prevents Fire Lash spam
:cinderace: Cinderace | - | You cannot be punished for Pyro Ball, but Gunk Shot into ZHB sucks hard

A Rank:

A+ Rank


:clefable: Clefable | / | Moonblast is Neutral
:equilibra: Equilibra | - | Epower spam is most common, but DD into EP sucks hard
:magearna: Magearna | - | Fleur into Fleur is neutral, Aura into SP or Fleur sucks
:slowking: Slowking | + | Scald resists Scald, but FS still exists
:spectrier: Spectrier | banned lol | banned lol
:slowking-galar: Slowking-Galar | - |Switching into Sludge Bomb means you're generally fine, switching into FS means you are put into a horrid situation.
:tomohawk: Tomohawk | -- | Hurricane isn't exploitable, and is the more common move, but Aura into Hurricane sucks
:tornadus-therian: Tornadus-Therian | /- | Hurricane isn't exploitable, but Focus into Hurricane sucks


A Rank
:dragapult:
Dragapult | -- | Shadow Ball or Dragon Darts set you up for SE damage
:garchomp: Garchomp | - | EQ is neutral, Scale Shot into Scale Shot sucks
:heatran: Heatran | -- | Magma into EP is death, only rating it so lowly because of trapping
:hydreigon: Hydreigon | ++ or - | depends on set, defog dies to you, NP Draco is a minor advantage
:krilowatt: Krilowatt | - | Surf into Volt sucks hard, but isn't hyper common, and Kril cannot punish you for being electric
:landorus-therian: Landorus-Therian | / | EQ is neutral vs Ground
:melmetal: Melmetal | + | SE Eq is about 5% weaker than neutral DIB
:rillaboom: Rillaboom | ++ or - | CB Grassy Glide spam is your wheelhouse, SD Acrobatics punishes
:tapu fini: Tapu Fini | + | Surf Spam is resisted, Dkiss Spam isn't, very minor advantage
:toxapex: Toxapex | / | Scald spam is resisted, but damage isn't Pex's role
:tyranitar: Tyranitar | - | Rock Blast into Superpower is bad, but not horrid
:zapdos: Zapdos | - | Hurricane into Volt sucks

A- Rank

:blissey: Blissey | / | This pokemon does not rely on typing for damage
:ferrothorn: Ferrothorn | + | Power Whip makes you leech immune, very minor though
:kerfluffle: Kerfluffle | / or -| Specs doesn't care, HDB can set up Focus into Moonblast
:latios: Latios | /+ | This is controversial, but resisting Psyshock spam is great, and Draco doesn't benefit that hard from Color Change (33% increase), Aura into Psyshock on CM sets is death
:nidoking: Nidoking | / | Sheer Force does not proc Color Change
:slowbro: Slowbro | + | Scald spam resist is nice

B Rank:

B+ Rank

:barraskewda: Barraskewda | + | This would be ++ if the mon didn't spend its time clicking Flip Turn
:colossoil: Colossoil | /+ | Knock Spam is slightly worse ig? not really a huge benefit
:excadrill: Excadrill | - | EQ into EQ is neutral, IH into EQ sucks
:mandibuzz: Mandibuzz | + | Hey, this is a legit great matchup as you just ignore Foul Play damage, that said U-turn go brr
:moltres: Moltres | - | very minor damage increase (10%) offered by Fthrower into Scorching
:pelipper: Pelipper | ++ | Scald into Scald is 0 damage, that said this isn't staying in


B Rank
:aegislash: Aegislash | -- | Sball go brr
:cawmodore: Cawmodore | / | frankly this is neutral because its probably OHKOing
:corviknight: Corviknight | - | Bpress into BB sucks, but not hugely, BB into BB is neutral
:cyclohm: Cyclohm | - | Discharge isn't exploitable, Draco is
:hawlucha: Hawlucha | - | CC into Acro sucks, Acro into Acro probably kills anyways
:jumbao: Jumbao | + | Prevents Leaf storm spam ig? Moonblast is unaffected
:kartana: Kartana | + | Leaf Blade spam is stopped, Kart can't exploit outside of Knock into Sacred
:kyurem: Kyurem | ++ or / | Ice Spam from sub sets is nullified, Draco exploits ig, but again mediocre damage increase over 2 turns
:pajantom: Pajantom | -- | We lose to this
:suicune: Suicune | ++ | Scald spam is sorta nullified
:swampert: Swampert | - | EQ into Flip Turn sucks
:tapu lele: Tapu Lele | ++ | Psychic Spam is resisted


B- Rank
:amoonguss: Amoonguss | / | Giga into Spore is great, Giga into Sludge isn't, still knowing that they aren't sporing is great
:arghonaut: Arghonaut | - | Knock into Bpress sucks, but like, not that much
:dracozolt: Dracozolt | / | Bolt Beak spam rip, but its sorta exploitable, and Draco again
:gastrodon: Gastrodon | - | EQ into Scald sucks
:hippowdon: Hippowdon | / | EQ into EQ is neutral
:regieleki: Regieleki | ++ | this mon hates you
:stratagem: Stratagem | / | Meteor Beam into Epower sucks, but its not hugely stronger than Meteor into Paleo Wave
:syclant: Syclant | + | Triple Axel Spam rip, but you still hate U-turn
:tapu koko: Tapu Koko | ++ | Electric Spam hates you
:torkoal: Torkoal | ++ | Lava Plume makes you better vs this, and its teammates, that's great
:urshifu: Urshifu-R | + | Surging Strikes spam is stopped, CC spam isn't
:venusaur: Venusaur | -- | This mon has 3 stabs and can hit you SE no matter what
:victini: Victini | ++ | V-create spam is ded
:zeraora: Zeraora | + | Plasma Fists into volt is 0 damage, Knock into CC is many damage

This is about all I wanna cover today. Highlights are that there's a fair few neutral matchups (yay?), and that we have a surprisingly good matchup vs most elemental mons and many steels.
 
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Ignus

Copying deli meat to hard drive
I wrote a tool for this, if anyone wants to take a look: Here

Basically, it uses the usage statistics from last month (weighted at 1500 elo) to calculate the percentage chance the opponent will have a super effective move after a color change, assuming you switched into move X. It's still missing some gen 8 moves, but I'll be fixing that up and posting some of the more interesting ones in a few hours. Until then, it's a decent rough approximation if you need one :)
 

SHSP

is a Forum Moderatoris a CAP Contributor
Moderator
I wrote a tool for this, if anyone wants to take a look: Here

Basically, it uses the usage statistics from last month (weighted at 1500 elo) to calculate the percentage chance the opponent will have a super effective move after a color change, assuming you switched into move X. It's still missing some gen 8 moves, but I'll be fixing that up and posting some of the more interesting ones in a few hours. Until then, it's a decent rough approximation if you need one :)
Sounds like a great idea on paper, but the issue is where you're taking the actual stats from. CAP Ladder stats are egregiously bad- here's the link for reference: https://www.smogon.com/stats/2021-01/gen8cap-1500.txt

The highest non-CAP mon here is Cinderace, at 23rd most used. (Edit: accidentally missed Ace with the past list, had Mag at 27th- apologies for the inconvenience, though the point doesn't change at all.) Voodoom is higher usage than Spectrier, Rilla and Torn-T. They're just not a good representation of the metagame by any metric. I really highly advise against using ladder stats in any context- we do have stats from Snake Draft (which I believe I updated to finals but if not those'll be fixed in a bit tonight) and I think we are also keeping stats for the ongoing Winter Seasonal (paging 2spoopy4u as I believe he's handling that?). Those would be a more accurate representation of the metagame.

While I have a moment to discuss the questions asked, I'm also a big fan of Quz's earlier post using the + or -'s to give a quick glance at the metagame without going too overly deep at the moment. I want to echo the quick point he made about the "elemental" advantage and also comment on the theme I can start to see among this list: high highs and low lows. There are a lot of "--"'s on this list- stuff like ghosts, flyings- but also a surprising amount of positives like a surprising amount of defensively oriented mons. I am a bit curious about the Future Sight/Doom Desire situations mentioned, though: I feel like those moves in particular are a bit odd for us as our base typing defines a lot of how we play into them, as I don't think there's many situations that they hit something that's stayed in, rather than something that directly comes in to eat the FS or DD.
 
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Ignus

Copying deli meat to hard drive
Sounds like a great idea on paper, but the issue is where you're taking the actual stats from. CAP Ladder stats are egregiously bad- here's the link for reference: https://www.smogon.com/stats/2021-01/gen8cap-1500.txt
That's true, but that's looking at the play of individual pokemon rather than the moveset data, which is the focus of the analysis. I'd argue that the main bias of the ladder is to play with the new shiny toys, rather than to make absolutely garbage movesets. Here's some sample moveset stats from the CAP 1500 ladder, which all seem relatively reasonable to me:

Code:
 +----------------------------------------+
 | Tomohawk                               |
 +----------------------------------------+
 | Moves                                  |
 | Roost 85.078%                          |
 | Hurricane 75.932%                      |
 | Stealth Rock 49.118%                   |
 | Aura Sphere 42.212%                    |
 | Haze 38.982%                           |
 | Rapid Spin 27.045%                     |
 | Focus Blast 16.522%                    |
 | Air Slash 15.465%                      |
 | Heat Wave 12.124%                      |
 | Taunt  4.309%                          |
 | Toxic  3.088%                          |
 | Grass Knot  2.662%                     |
 | Nature Power  2.473%                   |
 | Substitute  2.306%                     |
 | Yawn  2.092%                           |
 | Close Combat  1.605%                   |
 | Other 18.987%                          |
 +----------------------------------------+

 +----------------------------------------+ 
 | Astrolotl                              | 
 +----------------------------------------+ 
 | Moves                                  | 
 | Fire Lash 71.961%                      | 
 | Knock Off 60.780%                      | 
 | Spikes 38.688%                         | 
 | Encore 25.196%                         | 
 | Dragon Claw 24.351%                    | 
 | Wish 23.383%                           | 
 | Stomping Tantrum 12.845%               | 
 | Defog 10.929%                          | 
 | Draco Meteor 10.318%                   | 
 | Flare Blitz  9.872%                    | 
 | Dazzling Gleam  8.871%                 | 
 | Heal Bell  8.855%                      | 
 | Fire Blast  8.253%                     | 
 | Outrage  8.249%                        | 
 | Will-O-Wisp  7.342%                    | 
 | Acrobatics  7.061%                     | 
 | Thunder Wave  6.969%                   | 
 | Dragon Pulse  6.913%                   | 
 | Taunt  6.173%                          | 
 | Flamethrower  6.052%                   | 
 | Scorching Sands  4.183%                | 
 | Dragon Tail  3.618%                    | 
 | Meteor Beam  3.611%                    | 
 | Overheat  2.788%                       | 
 | Agility  2.348%                        | 
 | Yawn  1.750%                           | 
 | Other 18.641%                          | 
 +----------------------------------------+ 

 +----------------------------------------+ 
 | Cinderace                              | 
 +----------------------------------------+ 
 | Moves                                  | 
 | Pyro Ball 95.524%                      | 
 | High Jump Kick 75.354%                 | 
 | Gunk Shot 64.734%                      | 
 | U-turn 49.978%                         | 
 | Sucker Punch 49.736%                   | 
 | Zen Headbutt 31.797%                   | 
 | Bulk Up  5.643%                        | 
 | Court Change  5.261%                   | 
 | Electro Ball  4.054%                   | 
 | Other 17.920%                          | 
 +----------------------------------------+
Full moveset dump is here if anyone wants it: https://www.smogon.com/stats/2021-01/moveset/gen8cap-1500.txt

I agree though, I think it's a good thing to keep stat accuracy in mind when observing the information. I'll make sure to look at the differences between the OU and CAP ladders as well for pokemon that're in both, to make sure that anything I bring up using this will be valid.
 

Birkal

We have the technology.
is a Top Artistis a Top CAP Contributoris a Top Smogon Media Contributoris a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Admin Alumnusis a Super Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnus
Loving these lists! If you're feeling inclined to make a similar list from CAP VR, please feel free to do so. But if you're not too keen on making a post that's an entire list of how every relevant mon interacts with Color Change, consider posting your thoughts about a single aspect of Questions 9-11. And to sharpen the focus on those questions, here's another one that wraps them together:

12) Do you see any commonalities between the mons Color Change has an inherent advantage over? Or any commonalities between the mons that Color Change is inherently bad against? What connections can we start making about what sorts of teams CAP29 will have an advantage over, or be disadvantaged against? In short, what kind of competitive niche might we be able to fulfill thanks to our ability?​

There's been some chat on Discord about how Color Change matches up against specific teambuilds (rain, sun, HO, etc), and it might be interesting for us to dig into those further. If we can find a specific group of mons or teams that give us a natural advantage, we can use that information to better define what role CAP29 should have later in this thread.
 
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Or any commonalities between the mons that Color Change is inherently bad against

So I noticed a few big things here. One is that offensive non-choiced mons that have a pile of STABs or coverage like Venusaur and Cinderace look like a lost cause. Unless we target them specifically via typing/movepool/stats (which is possible, but maybe not feasible), we might have to accept that they are going to be bullying us 9 times out of 10.

Using Quizel's list, there are also 8 different matchups that we lost because of an enemy's Dragon Stab, and 7 that we don't like because of Fighting changing our typing into one the enemy can take advantage of, such as Tomohawk and Magearna. These are the two most common typings that are directly working against us. There are multiple ways to approach bettering these matchups, such as immunities, dual-typings that include them, bulk, or turning that new Fighting/Dragon typing into a STAB via movepool, among others.

There was one other thing I noticed that is fairly common among these bad matchups. 5 of the 7 dangerous Fighting switch ins are special. Interestingly, so is Venusaur. Going down the list of Pokemon that are dangerous to us with Color Change, Special threats that bully Color Change users vastly outnumber the physical ones, from Equilibra and Heatran all the way down to Swampert and Cyclohm.
 
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Do you see any commonalities between the mons Color Change has an inherent advantage over?

Looking into quziel's list, the mons that color change has an more clear advantage on include terrain spammers in Koko, rilla and lele and mons that benefit from their terrains such as Latios, regielecki and kartana. It also is in theory good at defending against climate setters in rain and sun respectfully. More specifically, color change is strong against self-resistant type spammers that either are choice locked or only have one main stab attacks, and it's main advantageous matchups trend to be against physical attackers (except electrics). As such, we might start thinking of concentrating on physical bulk as key targets in astro, rilla and even psyshock Latios trend to target that defense.
 
Loving these lists! If you're feeling inclined to make a similar list from CAP VR, please feel free to do so. But if you're not too keen on making a post that's an entire list of how every relevant mon interacts with Color Change, consider posting your thoughts about a single aspect of Questions 9-11. And to sharpen the focus on those questions, here's another one that wraps them together:

12) Do you see any commonalities between the mons Color Change has an inherent advantage over? Or any commonalities between the mons that Color Change is inherently bad against? What connections can we start making about what sorts of teams CAP29 will have an advantage over, or be disadvantaged against? In short, what kind of competitive niche might we be able to fulfill thanks to our ability?​

There's been some chat on Discord about how Color Change matches up against specific teambuilds (rain, sun, HO, etc), and it might be interesting for us to dig into those further. If we can find a specific group of mons or teams that give us a natural advantage, we can use that information to better define what role CAP29 should have later in this thread.
While its somewhat obvious, walls and other pokemon who lack offensive power have less advantages over Color Change as a whole. In conjunction with what Jewvia has stated, Special Attackers take advantage of color change more than physical attackers, and specifically when it comes to types, Color Change tends to struggle against pokemon with Fighting or Ground type coverage, with both of these types being super effective on a range of types as well as having many weaknesses to common offensive types as well. Color Change, interestingly, seems to have an advantage over specifically grass, water, electric, and psychic types, notably faster ones that rely on their spammable STAB to deal damage.

While I don't think I can fully idealize a niche for CChange yet, I wanted to ask along with Birkal's questions: What are the weaknesses of CAP 29 and Color Change that its teammates can help patch up through their roles? what teammates does Color Change appreciate the most when it comes to helping it avoid disadvantageous matchups and optimize advantageous matchups?
 
Color change biggest advantage is probably that it eases prediction. Since it’s in your opponent’s best interest to chain super effective attacks. If cinderace hits you with a sludge bomb, you know it’s in your opponents best interest to either follow up with ZHB or try and punish whatever they think the ZHB switch in would be. there is something to capitalize in there, I assume you’d want to pair 29 with mons multiple resistances/immunities that enjoy free/safe switches.
 
Wanted to make a more digestible visual of Pokemon based on their match-up vs. Color Change, split into five categories:

Very Positive : Attacker lacks a way to take advantage of our ability through coverage: also applies to Choice users that lack strong neutral > neutral moves or anything that typically runs one offensive move.
Net Positive : Attacker is able to play around Color Change or ignore it, but is still overall hindered by its effects either by having to constantly shuffle moves or is set back due to forgoing coverage (4MSS basically) that would otherwise let them.
Neutral : Color Change has little, if any impact on how the Attacker plays, or faces equal upsides and downsides when facing it; usually this is a Defensive Mon, or something whose match-up vs. Color Change is very subjective towards what moveset it has. Something in Neutral can still take advantage of Color Change, it's just that they aren't always going to or the benefit isn't terribly big.
Net Negative : Attacker is able to take advantage of Color Change either by linking common STABS/Coverage or setting up for a teammate.
Very Negative : Attacker readily abuses Color Change's mechanics. Many Ghost/Dragon Pokemon easily fit into this category, even when Choiced.

I used a lot of more subjective reasoning for some of these based on different factors. Astrolotl typically does not run Dragon STAB; as a result Color Change punishes repeated use of Fire Lash while forcing potential ill-effective Knock-Offs (assuming we already lost our item), and is thus greatly hurt by Color Change. If it does run Dragon STAB, however, that's pretty bad for us, and it can still alternate between two of its offensive moves as long as it is not mono-Fire Lash. Similarly, while Tomohawk can chain Aura Sphere -> Hurricane and looks super threatening as a result, it may not always run Aura Sphere, and it also has to hit Hurricane in the first place. I tried to reflect some of the more volatile situations by having Pokemon in different placement depending on certain factors that one could expect.
Very Positive
Net Positive​
Neutral​
Net Negative​
Very Negative​
:melmetal:
(Choiced)​
:astrolotl:

(no Dragon STAB)​
:clefable:
:astrolotl:
(Dragon STAB)​
:dragapult:

:rillaboom:
(Choiced)​
:cinderace:
(Pyro/HJK/U-Turn/Gunk)​
:cinderace:
:equilibra:
:heatran:
:kartana:
(Choiced)​
:slowking:
:tornadus-therian:
(No Focus Blast)​
:magearna:
:latios:
:suicune:
:hydreigon:
(Defensive, kinda
bad now though)​
:landorus-therian:
:slowking-galar:
:aegislash:
:tapu lele:
(Choiced)​
:melmetal:
Solely because
DIB > SE EQ​
:tyranitar:
:tomohawk:
:hawlucha:
:regieleki:
:rillaboom:
:nidoking:
:tornadus-therian:
(Focus Blast)​
:pajantom:
:tapu koko:
:tapu fini:
:colossoil:
:garchomp:
:torkoal:
(Standard)​
:toxapex:
:moltres:
:hydreigon:
:victini:
(Choiced)​
:ferrothorn:
:cawmodore:
:krilowatt:
~~~~~~~~~~~~
anything below here is for
"rarer" choice users whose
viability is in question​
:slowbro:
:corviknight:
:zapdos:
(:heatran:)
:barraskewda:
:jumbao:
:kerfluffle:
(:volkraken:)
:mandibuzz:
:kartana:
:excadrill:
(:weavile:)
:pelipper:
:kyurem:
:cyclohm:
:tapu lele:
:amoonguss:
:swampert:
:syclant:
:arghonaut:
:dracozolt:
:torkoal:
(if people start running
Ground or smthn)​
:hippowdon:
:gastrodon:
:urshifu-rapid-strike:
:stratagem:
:venusaur:
:victini:
:zeraora:

To answer (12), there are definitely emergent patterns among our best and worst matchups.

For the most part, if it's a Dragon or Ghost, that's really bad. Kyurem has the worst match-up since only its Dragon moves combo into itself, and its still Neutral at worst. Secondly, Pokemon which inhibit our ability to switch or can easily switch out themselves are problematic. Heatran doesn't seem like the worst thing in the world, until you realize that Magma Storm both traps you and puts you at the mercy of an incoming Earth Power. Similarly, anything that can use pivot moves generally bypasses the effects of Color Change. Even our good matchups like Rillaboom are subject to being out-positioned by a U-Turn, to say nothing of a Magearna Volt Switch into Scarf Lando situation.

What isn't new is that we are adept at taking on a lot of Choice users, namely those whose attacks resist themselves. The most glaring losers are those that can't do any VoltTurn shenanigans, like Kartana, Melmetal, and Tapu Lele. Scarf/Band Kartana especially can't really touch us with anything beyond a first-turn Leaf Blade or Sacred Swords, as everything else is immediately resisted next turn. This may seem obvious, but the less options the opponent has to hit us, the more likely we are to turn Color Change into a positive trait instead of a negative one. Another advantage gained from self-resisting types is how it affects more defensive Pokemon. Although many of them aren't prioritizing immediate damage, chip is still important, and even something at weak as Toxapex is going to rack up damage even if Scald doesn't burn once. I think bulkier builds might be disadvantaged against Color Change, as these resistances give us valuable turns to do all sorts of things. Slower, "stallier" teams and Pokemon rely on maintaining strong safe matchups that let them chip away at the opposing team: Color Change actively alters said matchup, meaning that a Pokemon that originally faired well against it may suddenly be at a disadvantage.

It's a shame that Color Change doesn't activate on the first hit of multi-hit moves anymore (at least I think), because the interaction with Surging Strikes and Triple Axel would be quite cool. It at least somewhat protects us from Scale Shot.

I do think there is potential for a Stallbreaker-type Pokemon here as a result of the "spammable neutral damage changing to resisted damage" shtick, albeit a very unorthodox one that I'm not exactly sure how it could work since the finer details like movepool, base type and stats are undecided.

In addition, I feel there's a lot of teambuilding depth to Color Change that can lead us in a different direction. While at the current stage I'm not sure how well this would work in practice, the fact that Color Change causes certain attacks that were neutral to be resisted the next turn opens the door for applying tons of pressure. The opponent is encouraged to switch off the now resisted move to hit CAP29 with a more effective move (as taziathegreat pointed out while I was still typing). Our opponent isn't always going to go for the SE hit, but this is the kind of crossroads-decision making that we can take potential advantage from. If you took an Electric attack and your opponent has a Ground move, they have to decide if they should use the now SE Ground move, or use the Electric move again should you switch into a Flying Type. I feel like this has elements of an offensively-leaning Pivot, coming in to take attacks and forcing the opponent's hand with making a difficult choice, one that can result in a safe switch for CAP29's teammate or free damage coming from 29 itself. It does seem rather risky since it relies a lot on the psychological aspect of Pokemon (conditioning the opponent and whatnot), but also sounds like a lot of fun to try and make work.

Do note a majority of this was made after getting up way too early, working a 9-5 and accidently staying up ~1 hour after I wanted to go sleep, so if some of what I said is insane chalk at least half of it up to being tired and the other half to me actually being insane.
 
It’s also worth mentioning that difficult choice generates with proper prediction free turns that can be used for a set up sweeping set or even a defensive supportive set. Moves like protect, taunt, encore, substitute (which has an interesting interaction of preventing the type change) even torment all play into easing prediction and further conditioning your opponent.
 
Maybe this is obvious, but it's also worth reminding everyone that even some of the negative matchups can be exploited for a free turn (or at least a neutral one) if you come in on the right move or find another way to get in safely. Yes, :Zapdos: Hurricane-->Discharge can destroy you, but if you come in on the more spammable Discharge, you have one free turn to do whatever you want while you easily absorb a Hurricane. Either that or they will choose to continue spamming Hurricane, giving you a neutral matchup.

Other examples of - matchups you could switch in on for a free or neutral turn:
Hurricane from :Tomohawk::Tornadus: (one / turn if they continue to spam, one + turn if they set Fighting-->Hurricane)
Moonblast from :Kerfluffle: (one / turn if they continue to spam, one + turn if they set Aura Sphere-->Moonblast)
Sludge Bomb from :Venusaur: (won't continue to spam, one + turn when setting Grass-->Sludge Bomb)
Flash Cannon from :Magearna: (won't continue to spam, one + turn when setting Fairy-->Flash Cannon)
Dark Pulse from :Hydreigon: (won't continue to spam, one / turn when setting Dragon-->Dragon)

These are all special attackers. Given the importance of good prediction for coming in safely against these threats and the fact you have limited time against them, it is probably easier to design a playstyle that can reliably come in and sit in front of the positive physical matchups that other people have pointed out. However, CAP29 may have a better chance of success if we also provide it with the tools to employ a more hit-and-run playstyle against a selection of special threats, where it can make efficient use of one turn under short-term resistances from Color Change.
 
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dex18

As far as I know, I'm immortal
is a Pre-Contributor
Wanted to make a more digestible visual of Pokemon based on their match-up vs. Color Change, split into five categories:

Very Positive : Attacker lacks a way to take advantage of our ability through coverage: also applies to Choice users that lack strong neutral > neutral moves or anything that typically runs one offensive move.
Net Positive : Attacker is able to play around Color Change or ignore it, but is still overall hindered by its effects either by having to constantly shuffle moves or is set back due to forgoing coverage (4MSS basically) that would otherwise let them.
Neutral : Color Change has little, if any impact on how the Attacker plays, or faces equal upsides and downsides when facing it; usually this is a Defensive Mon, or something whose match-up vs. Color Change is very subjective towards what moveset it has. Something in Neutral can still take advantage of Color Change, it's just that they aren't always going to or the benefit isn't terribly big.
Net Negative : Attacker is able to take advantage of Color Change either by linking common STABS/Coverage or setting up for a teammate.
Very Negative : Attacker readily abuses Color Change's mechanics. Many Ghost/Dragon Pokemon easily fit into this category, even when Choiced.

I used a lot of more subjective reasoning for some of these based on different factors. Astrolotl typically does not run Dragon STAB; as a result Color Change punishes repeated use of Fire Lash while forcing potential ill-effective Knock-Offs (assuming we already lost our item), and is thus greatly hurt by Color Change. If it does run Dragon STAB, however, that's pretty bad for us, and it can still alternate between two of its offensive moves as long as it is not mono-Fire Lash. Similarly, while Tomohawk can chain Aura Sphere -> Hurricane and looks super threatening as a result, it may not always run Aura Sphere, and it also has to hit Hurricane in the first place. I tried to reflect some of the more volatile situations by having Pokemon in different placement depending on certain factors that one could expect.
Very Positive
Net Positive​
Neutral​
Net Negative​
Very Negative​
:melmetal:
(Choiced)​
:astrolotl:

(no Dragon STAB)​
:clefable:
:astrolotl:
(Dragon STAB)​
:dragapult:

:rillaboom:
(Choiced)​
:cinderace:
(Pyro/HJK/U-Turn/Gunk)​
:cinderace:
:equilibra:
:heatran:
:kartana:
(Choiced)​
:slowking:
:tornadus-therian:
(No Focus Blast)​
:magearna:
:latios:
:suicune:
:hydreigon:
(Defensive, kinda
bad now though)​
:landorus-therian:
:slowking-galar:
:aegislash:
:tapu lele:
(Choiced)​
:melmetal:
Solely because
DIB > SE EQ​
:tyranitar:
:tomohawk:
:hawlucha:
:regieleki:
:rillaboom:
:nidoking:
:tornadus-therian:
(Focus Blast)​
:pajantom:
:tapu koko:
:tapu fini:
:colossoil:
:garchomp:
:torkoal:
(Standard)​
:toxapex:
:moltres:
:hydreigon:
:victini:
(Choiced)​
:ferrothorn:
:cawmodore:
:krilowatt:
~~~~~~~~~~~~
anything below here is for
"rarer" choice users whose
viability is in question​
:slowbro:
:corviknight:
:zapdos:
(:heatran:)
:barraskewda:
:jumbao:
:kerfluffle:
(:volkraken:)
:mandibuzz:
:kartana:
:excadrill:
(:weavile:)
:pelipper:
:kyurem:
:cyclohm:
:tapu lele:
:amoonguss:
:swampert:
:syclant:
:arghonaut:
:dracozolt:
:torkoal:
(if people start running
Ground or smthn)​
:hippowdon:
:gastrodon:
:urshifu-rapid-strike:
:stratagem:
:venusaur:
:victini:
:zeraora:

To answer (12), there are definitely emergent patterns among our best and worst matchups.

For the most part, if it's a Dragon or Ghost, that's really bad. Kyurem has the worst match-up since only its Dragon moves combo into itself, and its still Neutral at worst. Secondly, Pokemon which inhibit our ability to switch or can easily switch out themselves are problematic. Heatran doesn't seem like the worst thing in the world, until you realize that Magma Storm both traps you and puts you at the mercy of an incoming Earth Power. Similarly, anything that can use pivot moves generally bypasses the effects of Color Change. Even our good matchups like Rillaboom are subject to being out-positioned by a U-Turn, to say nothing of a Magearna Volt Switch into Scarf Lando situation.

What isn't new is that we are adept at taking on a lot of Choice users, namely those whose attacks resist themselves. The most glaring losers are those that can't do any VoltTurn shenanigans, like Kartana, Melmetal, and Tapu Lele. Scarf/Band Kartana especially can't really touch us with anything beyond a first-turn Leaf Blade or Sacred Swords, as everything else is immediately resisted next turn. This may seem obvious, but the less options the opponent has to hit us, the more likely we are to turn Color Change into a positive trait instead of a negative one. Another advantage gained from self-resisting types is how it affects more defensive Pokemon. Although many of them aren't prioritizing immediate damage, chip is still important, and even something at weak as Toxapex is going to rack up damage even if Scald doesn't burn once. I think bulkier builds might be disadvantaged against Color Change, as these resistances give us valuable turns to do all sorts of things. Slower, "stallier" teams and Pokemon rely on maintaining strong safe matchups that let them chip away at the opposing team: Color Change actively alters said matchup, meaning that a Pokemon that originally faired well against it may suddenly be at a disadvantage.

It's a shame that Color Change doesn't activate on the first hit of multi-hit moves anymore (at least I think), because the interaction with Surging Strikes and Triple Axel would be quite cool. It at least somewhat protects us from Scale Shot.

I do think there is potential for a Stallbreaker-type Pokemon here as a result of the "spammable neutral damage changing to resisted damage" shtick, albeit a very unorthodox one that I'm not exactly sure how it could work since the finer details like movepool, base type and stats are undecided.

In addition, I feel there's a lot of teambuilding depth to Color Change that can lead us in a different direction. While at the current stage I'm not sure how well this would work in practice, the fact that Color Change causes certain attacks that were neutral to be resisted the next turn opens the door for applying tons of pressure. The opponent is encouraged to switch off the now resisted move to hit CAP29 with a more effective move (as taziathegreat pointed out while I was still typing). Our opponent isn't always going to go for the SE hit, but this is the kind of crossroads-decision making that we can take potential advantage from. If you took an Electric attack and your opponent has a Ground move, they have to decide if they should use the now SE Ground move, or use the Electric move again should you switch into a Flying Type. I feel like this has elements of an offensively-leaning Pivot, coming in to take attacks and forcing the opponent's hand with making a difficult choice, one that can result in a safe switch for CAP29's teammate or free damage coming from 29 itself. It does seem rather risky since it relies a lot on the psychological aspect of Pokemon (conditioning the opponent and whatnot), but also sounds like a lot of fun to try and make work.

Do note a majority of this was made after getting up way too early, working a 9-5 and accidently staying up ~1 hour after I wanted to go sleep, so if some of what I said is insane chalk at least half of it up to being tired and the other half to me actually being insane.
Just a few notes about this, Astro doesn't run dragon STAB ever and I'd move Venusaur over to very negative, as the common set atm is giga drain/weather ball/ep
 
I feel like checks and counters is gonna be super easy to figure out; as you can see from the posts here, they kind of just sort themselves out! However, I kind of wonder how we’ll do against more passive mons that aren’t actively trying to “combo” us to death. You’ll probably lose STAB, which really sucks, but getting a break from being afraid of everything is very nice.
Anyway, speed is gonna be crucial for 28. If you move first, you can actually use STAB moves without literally having to predict what typing you will be when you take your turn. I think giving it some kind of priority move could make it way easier to use, as this mon is probably gonna require a ton of thought to play well anyway, so not having to worry about outspeeding the other guy will make your life just a little less stressful.
 

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So, er, this isn't related to one of the questions and is more of a general point, but I think its worth noting that there are several situations where Color Change is leveraged by engaging in risky play. That is, Color Change's largest possible benefit is when you go from taking 80%-1 from a Super Effective attack, and then your opponent can only hit you with a resisted attack for 20%. It is quite likely that we will want to take certain Super Effective hits in order to completely deny an opponent the ability to otherwise KO us. Think taking a Super Effective Scald from Pelipper so that they can no longer even damage us with Barraskewda. I think we should heavily consider allowing or even incentivizing some self-resistant weaknesses on this mon.
 
So I was looking up Color Change on Bulbapedia to see if it interacted differently with any specific moves, and I noticed something interesting about its interactions with Future Sight and Doom Desire:

Generation V onward
Future Sight and Doom Desire now activate Color Change when they hit (they do not activate Color Change when used).

Basically, what this means is that if we are against a mon that uses Future Sight or Doom Desire, we get to keep whatever typing we currently have for a turn. This could lead to some interesting matchups with Future Sight/Doom Desire users, especially Equilibra, since it can't combo Doom Desire directly into Earth Power for SE damage like was thought previously.
 
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