CAP 18 CAP18 - Part 3 - Threats Discussion

[Korski]

As per the results of our Typing Poll, CAP18 will be a Fire/Water typed Pokemon. Based on this result and on the goals of our concept, we will in this thread be assessing how and to what degree the CAP should interact with various other Pokemon in the metagame, both offensively and defensively. The goal is to come up with a list of Pokemon the CAP should threaten in common gameplay scenarios, as well as Pokemon that should threaten the CAP. Our Topic Leader DetroitLolcat will be leading the discussion and finalizing the Threats list at the conclusion of this thread. The final say belongs to the TL (there will be no poll at the end of this thread), so please focus your arguments on his posts and questions. Here are some preliminary questions to think about in this thread:

• Going specifically by typing, what Pokemon found in the OU (or relevant) metagame will be able to comfortably give this CAP project trouble?
• What Pokemon will be major threats to this project right off the bat?
• What Pokemon have the potential to become counters?
• What Pokemon may end up as threats, but must be contained or dealt with per the concept?
• Will the concept succeed with these set list of threats?
• Is this list of threats acceptable for the project?
• What Pokemon will be threatened by the CAP based off of typing?
• Are these Pokemon targets that we want CAP to hit?
• Will these targets be "unavoidable" to threaten based solely on the typing?
• What direction must the project go in now that a set list of basic threats has been identified?
• What must be done in order to make these threats "wanted counters" or these threats be eliminated from counter discussion?
• What Pokemon do we want this project to counter entirely?

Obviously, no individual post has to answer every question. Please keep the assumptions minimal (e.g. "CAP18 will have at least one STAB") to avoid poll-jumping. This thread will be opened once DetroitLolcat has posted his opening remarks.

--------------------

CAP18 so far:

Leadership Team:

DetroitLolcat - Topic Leader
jas61292 - Typing Leader
PttP - Ability Leader
srk1214 - Stats Leader
ginganinja - Movepool Leader

Concept:

Concept: Major Third

General Description: A Pokemon that forms an effective offensive or defensive core with two lesser-used OU Pokemon.

Justification: Cores have always been an integral part of the metagame, whether you're running Talonflame/Staraptor to brute force everything, Slowbro/Amoonguss/Heatran for Regenerator-Leftovers stalling, or a whole team of Dragons + Magnezone. We've previously explored what it takes to make a successful partnership in CAP11 (Voodoom), but the metagame (and the simulator!) has changed dramatically since Voodoom's creation. I would also like to up the ante a little bit: Instead of just one, can we now take TWO Pokemon and find their missing piece? Whether we opt to build on an established two-Pokemon partnership or choose two previously unrelated Pokemon and put them together, I think that we can certainly find a Voodoom for a more offensive time.

Questions to Be Answered:

• How do effective cores in the current metagame differ fundamentally from the cores of previous metagames, if at all?
• Is synergy as important (relative to power) in the current metagame as it previously has been? (That is, has power creep rendered synergy unnecessary?)
• What differences are there between tailoring a Pokemon to two others and tailoring it to one? What else must be considered besides weaknesses and resistances?
• How does the addition of a Pokemon to a core change what other Pokemon can be effectively run alongside the core?
• Does Team Preview make running cores more difficult?
• Is it possible to create a core uncounterable by a single Pokemon? (For example, Celebi/Heatran/Jellicent was a very effective BW core that got slaughtered by Tyranitar. Can a core force opponents to counter it with another core?)
• Tagging onto the above, what is required to "counter-core" a core? What combination of offensive and defensive characteristics among "counter-core" members achieves this?

Typing: Fire/Water

 

[DetroitLolcat]

This concept calls for a different approach to the Threats Discussion since we've already spent so much time discussing what we need to threaten to form an effective core with Latias and Lucario. In fact, the bulk of our Concept Assessment 2 thread was concerned with pinpointing what we need to threaten in order to make Lucario and Latias this CAP's favorite teammates. Aegislash, various Fairy-type Pokemon, and Talonflame were popular picks to defeat, The Typing Discussion was an extension of this: we discussed what typing will let our Pokemon handle Latias' and Lucario's weaknesses well. Remember that one of the focal points of the Typing Discussion was "Can pose immediate offensive pressure against Pokemon that Lucario and Latias do not provide offensive pressure against.", so we've already made significant strides in identifying the Pokemon that threaten our core sans CAP 18.

What's changed since then is now we know what our Major Third will resist and be weak to. Note that we do not know exactly what it will beat and lose to because the Stats, Movepool, and Abilities have yet to be chosen, but we have a pretty good idea. Therefore, this discussion will be focused on what the core should threaten just as much as what the CAP should threaten. We'll handle this stage in two steps: the first about what we want CAP 18 to threaten and be threatened by and the second about what we want the core of CAP 18-Latias-Lucario core to threaten and be threatened by. Note that the second step of this process is rather complicated, and that we likely won't just be able to say "our core beats X" and "our core loses to Y", but rather specify Pokemon that our core should perform well against to various degrees and which Pokemon we will need to outsource our coverage against.

For right now, let's spend the next 24-48 hours talking about what CAP18 should threaten and be threatened by. Here are some questions to open up the discussion:


Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?

The third question in this post may be a bit out of left field, but it's important in understanding how much of the load CAP 18 needs to bear in this core. For example, if our CAP is threatened by Mega Charizard X, should we expect a CAP 18 user to immediately switch to Latias while the opponent switches to Charizard? Or should our Pokemon have significant overlap with the other members of its core?

In a day or two I'll shift the focus of this thread from CAP 18 by itself to the core. Until then, try to stay on topic! :)

 

[ginganinja]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?

If this CAP is not switching into Aegislash then we have a problem. Period. That said, having a fire and water typing means that it should be able to switch in fairly easily against the following pokemon; Scizor, Charizard Y, maybe Heatran, maybe Mawile, Venusaur, maybe Talonflame, Clefable and well, thats about it. this CAP is really good at switching into fire attacks, as well as Fairy attacks, but sadly since its weak to ground attacks, actually switching into those ground types is something this cap couldn't do with "little effort". Its not getting a huge amount of use with that Water typing unless it gets Levitate (in which case it can switch into Landorus and co easier like Rotom-W does), or unless it just uses its water STAB as an offensive coverage option, rather than a defensive type combination.

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

Generally speaking, Tyranitar really should be a decent switch in, that said, thanks to the Water STAB this cap has, it will prolly stay clear. Dragon types are obviously, solid switch ins into this CAP, but thanks to the wonky nature of this core, Lucario cannot really be expected to switch into most of them, thanks to Cube hitting too hard, Garchomp having access to a STAB Earthquake, and Charizard X having access to a strong Earthquake as well. Obviously, this core cannot really defend against these, so Lucario should be looking to set up on choiced Pursuits against Latias or otherwise getting support from something like a Wob or something. Failing that, it can try and set up on a -2 DM from a Lati@s or something, but type wise, there is nothing that this CAP really draws in (currently), that Lucario can really set up on / exploit that I can see.

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?

I have no idea what the fuck you are asking, nor do I think its really relevant since you cannot approach a solid prediction argument when its going to be a 50/50 largely dependant on battlefield conditions / situations so I highly doubt if there is a useful and/or helpful answer to be gained from this question.

 

[Albacore]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?

CAP 18's typing primarily allows it to switch into most Fairy-types, particularly Clefable. It can also switch into Mawile very easily, only fearing Sucker Punch which doesn't even hit on the switch-in and can easily be played with, and the rare Stone Edge. It does very well against Steel-types too, like Scizor and defensive Heatran which lack Earth Power (unfortunately, that move is quite common). Being a Fire-type, it can also switch into Mega Charizard Y which lack Earthquake (but, once again, this is quite a common move on Charizard-Y). Really, this typing's biggest problem is its Ground weakness, which makes it unable to efficiently switch into anything carrying Ground coverage unless it ends up with Levitate. There really isn't much else this Pokemon can switch into, since this was more supposed to be an offensive CAP than a defensive one.
This next part may be polljumping, (since it discusses what the CAP cannot switch into but probably should) but Aegislash was a big threat to the core, and, unfortunately, a Fire/Water typing doesn't really indicate an ability to switch into any of Aegislash's moves save for the relatively rare Iron Head and Flash Cannon. Even worse, the Crumbler set sometimes carries Head Smash, which a Fire/Water type cannot even dream of taking. The CAP will therefore need a lot of bulk or a special ability to deal with Aegislash and threaten it out.

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

Azumarill, unfortunately. Water types in general, but Azumarill was a huge threat to the core, and the CAP cannot threaten it out with its dual STAB alone despite the fact that it was supposed to beat fairies. However, this can be easily remedied if the CAP is given Thunderbolt, Energy Ball or Sludge Wave, all of which 2HKO standard Azumarill even from a base 100 SpA stat. These first two moves can also deal with Manaphy and Suicune, and Energy Ball hurts Rotom-W specifically, so they seem to be pretty appropriate coverage.
Since this definitely looks like a special attacker, Conkeldurr will probably be able to switch in, and, although Latias can deal with Conkeldurr, it still requires prediction to get in safely. Conkeldurr will also be able to switch into the Will-O-Wisp that this CAP will probably carry. Tyranitar can equally cause a problem, but Hydro Pump can 2HKO it without much difficulty, and Tyranitar itself is easily checked by Lucario if it isn't Scarfed.
Finally, many Dragon types like Dragonite, Salamence, Goodra, Latios or even Latias itself can easily switch in, especially if Energy Ball or Thunderbolt is chosen as coverage. Kingdra is notable for having a 4x resistance to the CAP's dual STAB, and will probably do decently against its coverage moves too. This is a big problem, since many Dragon-types are prone to carrying Earthquake, which threatens the CAP, and can deal with the entire core without too much difficulty, especially if they have access to Dragon Dance. Kyurem-B in particular is a massive threat to the core, since it can reliably use Earth Power to be sure to hit the entire core at least neutrally, although Latias can take an Earth Power very well (but pointing that out may be polljumping too).

How significant should prediction be when using this core?

I'd say very. Not so much predicting what your opponent will do, but what you opponent carries. If he has ground coverage, then the CAP is doomed. It's often easy for the Pokemon this CAP usually counters to choose a coverage move that can threaten it, due to the prevalence of Ground and Rock type moves. Prediction is also important when facing a Pokemon which can potentially threaten the entirety of the core if it uses the right move such as Conkeldurr or Kyurem-B. A lot of Pokemon can threaten the core as it is, which worries me a lot. We probably need to give the CAP something very specific in order to make it work in the context of this core.

 

[FezzikTheMighty]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?With its typing shared with only the unreleased Volcanion the CAP is great for stopping quite a few of the new threats this gen mainly Azumarril and M-Mawile the latter two have there fairy STABs resisted and for Mawile's steel attacks x4. Following that Steel type moves in general are going to be hard pressed harm the CAP. As Stated above if Heatran for some reason lacks Eaarth power CAP will run almost completley wall it. Scizor can't use either STAB and doesn't want to play anywhere near that fire typing, But has super power if it has to choice. other then that most other steel types have a secondary STAB or good coverage hit the CAP at least rather hard (ie. Bisharps Knock off, Excadrills earthquakes are especially scary).
What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?
Dragons can come in with little fear of its STABs and pokemon like Garchomp and Zyguard while neutral to water pack ther own STAB ground to scare the CAP off. Bulky water types especially Stormdrain Gastrodon laugh off any damage CAP could do and has Earth power to throw back at it.
How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?
As with any core prediction is always important. But this question feels to rather pointless to ask. Just keep your teams synergy in mind and youe should be good to go. Using Latias' Levitate to cover it's allies who both fear ground, CAPs ability to eat Fairy moves seems to be whole point of it's typing, and Lucario's x4 rock resistance to cover CAPs weakness you can keeo your team pretty healthy while taking the least damage. But Azumarril still seems to be a Large threat to this core as Lucario and Latias lack anyway to deal with it, while It and CAP break rather evenly walling each other.

 

[vyomov]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?
CAP 18 should look to switch into most Fairies(barring Azumarill), such as Mawile, Sylveon and Togekiss amongst others which can barely do anything to CAP 18 with their STABs while CAP 18 forces them out with an SE STAB.
Heatran without Earth Power and Char-Y without E-Quake are also good switch-ins for CAP 18, although EQ Char-Y and EP Heatran are increasingly common.

What we do need is the ability to switch into Aegislash because it is crucial for the success of the core. We should also ideally be able to switch into Talonflame at least once, although it might not be feasible to accomplish all these goals together, in which case Aegislash should take priority.

Without poll-jumping, this CAP can also use an Air Balloon to turn many mons into switch-ins opportunities such as Excadrill, Landorus-T, etc(if CAP 18's stats allow it to do so, that is to say)
What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

Two main mons that can stop CAP 18's STABs stone-cold without coverage being taken into consideration are Rotom-W and Azumarill. Both resist STABs, but both can be dealt with by Grass-type coverage. However, bulky dragons such as Goodra will also pose an issue to CAP 18, while Char-X can pose a major threat to the core as a whole as at +1 it can sweep the entire core - whether we want to allow Char-X to do so or whether we would rather build in some features to put a stop to it is what will be explored in the project.
How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?
I’m not entirely sure what this means but from what I can interpret from the question, I believe it should be because each member of this core tackles different mons in the tier and as such, predicting the switch and accordingly making the right move is crucial for this core to succeed. For instance, if you think the opponent is switching from say Sylveon to Rotom-W, using grass coverage is imperative.
The need for prediction is also furthered by CAP 18's weakness to SR, which means that when to Defog in a match is a crucial decision that requires prediction - because you might get only one opportunity to Defog.

 

[EternalSnowman]

I don't have much time, but I will just say right now, that defensively Rock and Ground types are the biggest threats as well as the occasional Volt Switch user. Offensively bulky waters give it trouble, such as Vaporeon, Tentacruel and Jellicent. Offensively on the other hand, it can handle many threats such as Talonflame and Heatran not carrying Earth Power. It is also threatened by Pokemon like Rotom-W in particular which resists its dual STAB and gets super effective hits off with its electric STAB.

 

[M-WHALE]

Oh, damn. Rotom-W. I completely forgot about the most common pokemon in competitive existance when discussing our core, and It gives us a hell of a lot of trouble. Lucario is scared of it, as it cannot setup for fear of the omnipresent will-o-wisp, and our new CAP cannot absorb those even with his immunity to burns, thanks to rotom-w absolutely destroying him. Not good. Not good at all.

 

[Yilx]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?
i think we can switch into aegislash iron head and flash cannon. i think we can also switch into many type that we resist like fairy, bug, steel, ice, fire. that being said, we can switch into varieties of ou threatens with that set of resistances, we stop scizor cold, unless we switch into knock off or u turn, but that falls under the 3rd point of prediction. we also stop pokemon like heatran, victini and infernape, who use fire move, which we resist quadrapably.

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?
dragon type can come in on any of our stabbing attack and hit us with super effect coverage like earthquake or thunder, and also strong water type, like suicune, azumarill, milotic and rotom-wash.

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?
very signifcant. lucerio and latias are very fargile, like a spring breeze in summer air, like a glass in stethoscope. if we predict wrong they can set up and 6-0 us easily. if we know they are trying to beat latias first, we try to kill their latias counter, so cap and lucario will have easjier time. if we know cap threatens their team, we can focus on predicting around their actions and lure them into trap to kill their cap killer.

 

[Expulso]

Okay, here's a run-down of the typing's benefits and drawbacks.
Quad-Resists: Fire, Ice, Steel
Resists: Bug
Weak to: Electric, Ground, Rock
Quad-Weak to: N/A


Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon (above), what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?

It should be able to comfortably switch into Heatran lacking Earth Power, as it quad-resists its STABs; unfortunately, Earth Power will likely become more common to get past CAP 18. The only other OU Pokemon who's dual STABs are resisted by CAP 18 is Volcarona, who troubles the Lucario / Latias core. It also easily switches into Steel-type attacks such as Aegislash's Iron Head and Scizor's Bullet Punch, as well as Fire attacks from the likes of Mega Charizard Y (though Latias deals with that fairly well also). Finally, CAP 18 is virtually unharmed by Ice-type attacks from the likes of Kyurem-Black and Mamoswine; unfortunately, Mamoswine can nail it with an Earthquake, and Kyurem-Black with a Fusion Bolt.

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

CAP 18's dual STABs are resisted by most water types, the most common of which are Rotom-W, Keldeo and Azumarill (which is, however, walled by CAP 18). Most water-type switch-ins will, ideally, be dealt with by Latias. Many dragon types also resist CAP 18's STAB attacks, such as Kyurem-Black, Hydreigon, and the Lati@s, which should be dealt with by Lucario. Finally, Kingdra, while uncommon, poses a tremendous problem to the core, quad-resisting CAP 18's STAB attacks, and hitting Latias SE as well as nailing Lucario under rain.

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?

Prediction is a very important aspect to the core, as unpredictable threats like Rotom-Wash can easily come in on CAP 18, and have a variety of options. For example, you don't know if Rotom-Wash is going to Volt Switch, Trick, or Will-O-Wisp expecting a switch. This can cripple Latias, which is expected to deal with Rotom-Wash well, making it require prediction and risk.

 

[Psyco_Josho]

For reference, here are the type match-ups for Fire/Water Defensively (w/o any Ability that could affect the matchup):
4x - none
2x - Electric, Ground, Rock
1x - Normal, Water, Grass, Fighting, Poison, Flying, Psychic, Ghost, Dragon, Dark
.5x - Bug, Fairy
.25x - Fire, Ice, Steel
0x - none

Here are the type match-ups for Fire Offensively:
2x - Grass, Ice, Bug, Steel
.5x - Fire, Water, Rock, Dragon
The ability Flash Fire multiplies damage taken by Fire-type moves by 0x
The ability Dry Skin multiplies damage taken by Fire-type moves by 1.25x
The abilities Thick Fat and Heatproof multiply damage taken by Fire-type moves by .5x

Here are the type match-ups for Water Offensively:
2x - Fire, Ground, Rock
.5x - Water, Grass, Dragon
The abilities Dry Skin, Storm Drain and Water Absorb multiply damage taken by Water-type moves by 0x

 

[Project_Mars]

what this checks and counters: Most Steel-Types cant switch in too easily, nor can they generally get a good hit in before being purged by fire, or water in Heatran's case. Volcarona also is scared out due to lacking any way to deal significant damage. Fairy-types are walled like we wanted, but Azumarill will actually give CAP18 some problems in that we cant do too much to it back.

On what checks and counters this: Garchomp takes neutral damage from CAP's Water STAB and threatens back with Earthquake. Water-Types and Dragon-Types both resist CAP's STABs and will most likely strike back with a strong coverage move. Rotom-W is most notable for being able to hit back against CAP's electric weakness.

Other considerations:
Rock-Types and Ground-types will have some difficulty switching in, but once they do they will wreck CAP. Bulky Rock-Types and Ground-Types will definitely counter CAP, due to being able to switch in and take the hit. Talonflame still has Brave Bird, but if CAP is bulky enough then we can take it out with Water. Aegislash will be something we need to beat, but the only current safe switch-in moves are its steel-type moves.

 

[ReddyGo]

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?
This is actually a huge issue with this CAP. Unfortunately, unless we give CAP Special bulk better than Garchomp (108/85) or Bulletproof, it's going to get guaranteed 2HKO'd by 252+ Aegislash Shadow Ball, and even if it gets better bulk it can still get 2hko'd:

252+ SpA Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 183-216 (51.1 - 60.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mega Scizor: 160-189 (46.5 - 54.9%) -- 62.1% chance to 2HKO (70/100)
252+ SpA Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Manaphy: 160-189 (46.9 - 55.4%) -- 69.5% chance to 2HKO (100/100)
252+ SpA Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 56 HP / 0 SpD Kyurem-B: 175-207 (43.2 - 51.1%) -- 4.7% chance to 2HKO (125/90)

People in the typing discussion thread were saying how it wouldn't be an issue to not resist Aegislash's moves because we would just give it the necessary bulk, but the Typing Discussion also said we wanted to threaten the Pokemon offensively. Now we have to give CAP bulk better than some of the best bulky attackers in the game. Even Kyurem-B can get 2HKO'd by Shadow Ball. The basic point I'm trying to make is that facing Aegislash requires a resist. Since our core has no resist to its primary STAB, it's going to be incredibly difficult to make a Pokemon that creates Offensive Pressure, has bulk enough to withstand the above onslaught, and also is not completely overpowered (especially outside this core). You might be saying, "oh but who cares if Aegislash 2hko's cuz our CAP will OHKO." Ya, but now all Aegislash has to do is switch out, and get ready for the next time Latias comes in and GG core. The only other option is if our CAP is so ridiculously powerful, that however it sets up on that Aegislash switch is so ridiculously good that it wins the game.

So to answer the question above, if we don't give CAP incredible bulk, it's going to need to predict the switch into Aegislash while Latias/Lucario is out (since Latias & Luke without Crunch can do almost nothing to Aegislash), at least once per matchup.

 

[Impy]

I hate to be a Negative Nancy, but this is utterly terrible typing for this core. Aegislash, Rotom-W, practically any Dragon, Excadrill, Conkeldurr...are there any threats to Luke and Latias that Fire/Water does help against? If this is specially-based, it can't even do anything to Fairies.

My comments have all pretty much been deleted so I've backed out of the creative process, but that's the one of the first things I thought about once votes started leaning towards fire/water. Unless CAP has tremendous bulk, its typing doesn't guarantee it will beat Aegislash at all, and after all the emphasis placed on beating Aegislash, Rotom-W wasn't mentioned even once and it gives this core similar problems, with Latias walled and shadow balled, and a non-crunch Lucario unable to put a dent in it... And it won't ever switch in to take a bite, with will o wisp a looming threat. Not to mention its electric attacks likely 2hko-ing CAP. One problem has only been somewhat dealt with, and another has arisen in its place. CAP was never going to be perfect, but Rotom-W is right up there with Aegislash.

 

[Pata Hikari]

OK let's take a look some of the top used Pokemon in OU to see how, just from typing they interact with CAP.

Rotom-W
Not particularly well. It resits CAP's STABs and threatens with Super Effective Electric STAB

Aegislash
Aegislash doesn't want to switch in to CAP, as Fire STAB roasts it. CAP resists Steel, so if you can predict its use it can switch in safely, otherwise we'll need some bulk to handle it.

Talonflame
Pretty much the same. Talonflame can't risk switching in to get smashed by Water STAB, and CAP resists it's Fire STAB, but it needs bulk to be able to take a Brave Bird.

Genesect
4x SE STAB means that, Genesect can't switch in. CAP can handle most of what it has, Thunderbolt is the only coverage move we need to worry about.

Greninja
Resists CAP's STABs, but nothing it carries hits us super effectively.

Charizard
CAP Quad resists Fire STAB, and provided it hasn't mega evolved yet can't switch in safely due to super effective Water STAB. Earthquake on physical sets can be risky though.

Heatan
CAP resists its STABS and as such can switch in on anything but Earth Power. Meanwhile it's threatened by SE Water STAB.

Scizor
It can literally do nothing to CAP, while CAP burns it with 4x SE Fire.

Conkeldurr
Can threaten CAP with Thunderpunch or Earthquake, while the usual fire type answer to such things(Burn) risks just making it stronger

Garchomp
Can threaten with Earthquake, while CAP can't hit it better then neutrally.

Azumarill
CAP resists one of its STABs but can't do anything offensively to it.

Bisharp
While nothing likes switching into a Knock Off, Bisharp can't switch into CAP with the risk of Fire STAB.

And just for fun, how do the other parts of the core interact with CAP on the opposing side?

Lucario, amusingly enough, can't switch in. Fire STAB and all. However, Latias basically walls Fire/Water with impunity.

 

[shinyskarmory]

Taking into account the expected attributes of a Fire/Water Pokemon, what Pokemon should CAP 18 be able to switch in against with little effort?

Well, obviously with a Fire/Water type switchins to Fire and Ice type moves are all but guaranteed, as it 4x resists both. Fairy is a good bet as well, as unless we're planning to come in repeatedly on, say, Mawile-M Play Rough almost any stat spread we'll realistically choose will allow us to come in on Fairy attacks.

In terms of other attacks, I'd LIKE us to be able to come in on at least one of Aegislash's attacks given proper prediction. We need CAP18 to be able to come in and hit Aegislash in order for this core to be successful, and so we need to take a small enough amount of damage from one of Aegislash's common attacks to be able to come in without fear. I'd honestly suggest Sacred Sword for this, as Lucario will already draw Aegislash onto the field and Aegislash will be trying to Sacred Sword to secure the KO after it tanks Earthquake.

Based on our STABs alone, CAP18 should also be a good candidate for shutting down Grass members of a FWG core. If we're already investing in taking a hit or two from Aegislash, that same bulk will also help us come in on stuff like Venusaur-M (not the best example because it's effectively neutral to us but you get my point).

What Pokemon should be able to switch into CAP 18 with little effort, and which Pokemon should Latias and Lucario be expected to provide support against?

CAP18's weird type combination makes it difficult to predict which pokemon will be able to switch in safely. It seems likely, though, that the strongest enemy switchins will be Water types like Azumarill, Rotom-W, and Gyarados, who can all come in on our STABs with impunity. Dragon types that don't have weaknesses to our STAB or the coverage moves we choose will also be good switchins (Basically any Dragon/Flying, Goodra, and Lati@s all seem good for switching in on CAP18).

I don't want to think about "what SHOULD be able to switch in" at the moment because we need to first identify mons that can switch in safely based on our STABs alone, and then decide which of those mons we should counter with coverage and which we should leave alone.

How significant should prediction be when using this core? If CAP 18 and Latias/Lucario cover a large portion of the meta, how important should predicting a switch be when using this core?

Prediction is certainly a factor we should consider, but I don't like being too reliant on it. When it comes down to it prediction is just guessing what the opponent does next; it can be an educated guess for sure, but there's always that fear deep down that the other guy is thinking *one* level deeper then us and we're going to lose out. I think we should consider prediction as a factor, but it should be a bonus e.g. "We predicted Aegislash coming in, now we can OHKO him instead of taking a Sacred Sword and then OHKOing!" not "We are 2HKOed by Aegislash so we have to predict the switch to do anything at all".

 

[Rotosect]

I don't have much time right so I'm just going to make a quick comment about Aegislash.
In order to survive a Shadow Ball on the switch, followed by Shadow Sneak, assuming Stealth Rock is in play (which this cap is weak to), this pokemon needs a significant amount of bulk.

Let's take Heatran:

252+ SpA Life Orb Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Heatran: 144-172 (37.3 - 44.5%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
4 Atk Life Orb Aegislash-Blade Shadow Sneak vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 75-91 (19.4 - 23.5%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery

If Heatran was weak to SR it would have taken a minimum of 85.3% and a maximum of 93% damage by merely switching on the crumbler set, and this is factoring maximum special bulk.
This is far from ideal for a pokemon that is supposed to keep Aegislash in check. Since it's the #1 threat to this core, I think this point needs to be stressed.

 

[Ununhexium]

I was just thinking that Mamoswine could deal some serious damage to this core if not played around correctly. It can switch into the CAPs fire STAB decently well provided the right prediction (meaning it doesnt use its Water STAB) and I did these calcs.

252 Atk Life Orb Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mamoswine: 546-642 (128.7 - 151.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Mamoswine Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Lucario: 482-570 (171.5 - 202.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Life Orb Latias Surf vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mamoswine: 341-403 (80.4 - 95%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (latias runs LO right and theres a 50% chance to OHKO after SR)
252+ Atk Mamoswine Icicle Crash vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Latias: 336-396 (111.2 - 131.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

As you can see (as the CAP has not been officially created yet) the only thing in this core that can reliably check Mamoswine is Lucario. And even Lucario can be played around with a bulky fairy type (Togekiss and maybe even Azumarill).

With a scarf, Mamoswine can thrash all of them fairlly reliably. Though as good as it may be, you dont want to switch it into a +2 Bullet Punch (though it will probably run Extremespeed anyways).

+2 252 Atk Lucario Bullet Punch vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mamoswine: 278-330 (65.5 - 77.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

So yeah, Mamoswine

 

[FierceDeity1]

Really, a lot of Ground types threaten the core. I am specifically afraid of Gastrodon, as mentioned earlier. Lucario cannot OHKO even at +2, and gets KO'd back with Earth Power after the sp. def drop from CC. Gastrodon can heal off any damage Latias gives and cou ld probably toxic stall. And witg Storm Drain and Earth Power, our CAP would probably have to outspeed it with Grass coverage to stop it.

Edit: Oops, I forgot Life Orb for Lucario's damage calc. It actually has a good chance to OHKO at +2. Sorry!

 

[Jukain]

I don't really post in CAP but umm...Gastro/Togekiss/max HP Mamo/Hydreigon/Tenta/Vaporeon/Jelli/Volc are not relevant in an OU discussion. Just saying...these things are a waste of time to think about.

 

[Torty73]

The really annoying thing about this pokemon is the ground type weakness, which of which Gastrodon is a threat. with storm drain, it can absorb water type attacks, and resists fire types. If this pokemon does not have a grass type move, e.g. energy ball, It will have problems. The question I think needs to be asked is how will this deal with water types , unless you give it storm drain which, isn't relevant now.

 

[Ununhexium]

I don't really post in CAP but umm...Gastro/Togekiss/max HP Mamo/Hydreigon/Tenta/Vaporeon/Jelli/Volc are not relevant in an OU discussion. Just saying...these things are a waste of time to think about.

Volcarona - #49 in OU | Usage: 3.43476% | Raw count: 306,169
Togekiss - #40 in OU | Usage: 4.50210% | Raw count: 371,664
Mamoswine - #36 in OU | Usage: 5.34965% | Raw count: 267,711

these three all make OU usage requirements so they are relevant thank you very much.

the rest are not OU but attain over 1% in usage so they are uncommon, but still a bit relevant. Also, this thread concerns what may come up in the playtest and to see what needs to be covered. It isnt about normal metagame OU usage, but threats to the core.

 

[Jukain]

Gastrodon sucks in XY OU.

Anyways, +2 252 Atk Life Orb Lucario Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Gastrodon: 415-489 (97.4 - 114.7%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO. So Gastro isn't really good against this core anyways.

I don't have much time right so I'm just going to make a quick comment about Aegislash.
In order to survive a Shadow Ball on the switch, followed by Shadow Sneak, assuming Stealth Rock is in play (which this cap is weak to), this pokemon needs a significant amount of bulk.

Let's take Heatran:

252+ SpA Life Orb Aegislash-Blade Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Heatran: 144-172 (37.3 - 44.5%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
4 Atk Life Orb Aegislash-Blade Shadow Sneak vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 75-91 (19.4 - 23.5%) -- possible 6HKO after Leftovers recovery

If Heatran was weak to SR it would have taken a minimum of 85.3% and a maximum of 93% damage by merely switching on the crumbler set, and this is factoring maximum special bulk.
This is far from ideal for a pokemon that is supposed to keep Aegislash in check. Since it's the #1 threat to this core, I think this point needs to be stressed.

Modest LO Aegis does not exist. 95% of them are Lefties -- the only good LO set runs a +Spe nature. This CAP would only need to be concerned with Lefties variants to do well.

Oh and what, SBall Rotom-W, lol no. Latias handles Rotom-W like a beast, and LO Dracos do a shitton. It also handles Keld well. I don't think Waters besides Azu are that big of a deal, and even at that, Latias /can/ TBolt it for more than enough damage.

Volcarona - #49 in OU | Usage: 3.43476% | Raw count: 306,169
Togekiss - #40 in OU | Usage: 4.50210% | Raw count: 371,664
Mamoswine - #36 in OU | Usage: 5.34965% | Raw count: 267,711

these three all make OU usage requirements so they are relevant thank you very much.

the rest are not OU but attain over 1% in usage so they are uncommon, but still a bit relevant. Also, this thread concerns what may come up in the playtest and to see what needs to be covered. It isnt about normal metagame OU usage, but threats to the core.

I am under the impression that we are considering Pokemon useful in a decent level of play; the point is, these Pokemon suck/are very niche in OU. OU status means something, but not everything.

 

[shinyskarmory]

Yes, but CAP18's creation isn't magically going to make a bad pokemon good.

I agree partially with Jukain. I think that Gastrodon and Togekiss are both pretty outclassed and not worth mentioning. I tend to lean the other way on Volcarona and Mamoswine, though; they both still pose enough of a threat in OU to be considered. Volcarona can potentially cause us problems if it manages to get a Quiver Dance up, and Mamoswine is a legitimate OU threat that we're going to run into even though he isn't particularly effective against us.

 

[Bughouse]

This is getting off track. At the end of the day, the only Waters of particular concern are Azumarill, Gyarados, and Manaphy. Rotom-W can be annoying by Volt Switching out of Latias as it comes in, but ultimately it's not too horrible of a threat. CAP 18 having dual STAB resisted by Water is not of supreme concern since Latias deals with most quite well.

As to things like Gastrodon, you just have to remember that being forced out by something like Gastrodon isn't even a bad thing. What is Gastrodon going to do to 90% of the things you'd switch into it? There's a reason it doesn't get used by good players. It does almost nothing for an OU team aside from counter Rain Offense teams.

Ultimately it seems to me the biggest threat to the core (or at least what CAP 18 contributes to the core) is Mega Gyarados, who can set up on CAP 18 and then destroy both Lucario and Latias. Mega Charizard X is a comparable threat as well.