Tournament CAPPL XI - Semifinals

Anchor9

Anchor9

Silksong Tomorrow!
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Amazing art by Spammernoob.
Hosted by shnowshner, Anchor9, and Murphy Lawden.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Semis | Finals

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:equilibra: Golden Time Equilibras (0) vs (0) Wu-Tang Clants :syclant:
SV: dunoks vs JJ09LIE
SV: One Last Kiss vs Mada
SV: Spammernoob vs Sificon
SS: Leroipolux1 vs Fogbound Lake
SM: LBN vs hex
ORAS: JayHeaven vs Micaiah
BW: violet river vs neomon
DPP: velvet vs Plague

:skwovet: Shoenice Skwovets (0) vs (0) Keep Calm and Chuggalong :chuggalong:
SV: Quinn vs LOOR
SV: Baddy vs Kate
SV: RADU vs Taka
SS: entrocefalo vs dex
SM: pannu vs evakiyama!
ORAS: The Strap vs avarice
BW: seraphz vs Accel
DPP: crying vs Laurel

Deadline for Week 7 isAugust 3 2025 at 11:00 PM, GLHF!

Golden Time Equilibras vs Wu-Tang Clants
SV: dunoks vs JJ09LIE
SV: One Last Kiss vs Mada
SV: Spammernoob vs Sificon
SS: Leroipolux1 vs Fogbound Lake
SM: LBN vs hex
ORAS: JayHeaven vs Micaiah
BW: violet river vs neomon
DPP: velvet vs Plague

Shoenice Skwovets vs Keep Calm and Chuggalong
SV: Quinn vs LOOR
SV: Baddy vs Kate
SV: RADU vs Taka
SS: entrocefalo vs dex
SM: pannu vs evakiyama!
ORAS: The Strap vs avarice
BW: seraphz vs Accel
DPP: crying vs Laurel
 
Shoenice Skwovets (4.5) vs (3.5) Keep Calm and Chuggalong
SV: Quinn vs LOOR :slugma:
SV: Baddy vs Kate :slugma: Honestly is close with spoo + Fragments support, but I believe.
SV: RADU vs Taka Think Taka is better, he also won with my team in Playtest today so I'm biased. Just need him to not throw (difficulty: impossible).
SS: entrocefalo vs dex Hard to guess, entro has better record but lost to dex earlier. If pressed I'd guess entro wins though.
SM: pannu vs evakiyama! pannu is back in his natural habitat of SM after venturing out to end Mada's career. What a legend.
ORAS: The Strap vs avarice Avarice has farmed the ORAS pool this year, idt he will lose unless the King's Rock Cloy comes out and flinches everything to death.
BW: seraphz vs Accel Record diff
DPP: crying vs Laurel Same as above

Go slugs :slugma:
 
Golden Time Equilibras (4) vs (4) Wu-Tang Clants
SV: dunoks vs JJ09LIE - this is probably a hot take to start off with given that dunoks went 7-0 in reg season and jj hasnt been as insaneo as last year, but x-0 smashers in playoffs make things more interesting
SV: One Last Kiss vs Mada - I have been a vocal critic of mada prep this season while olk prep has held up to standards (and those standards are just olk being on copious amounts of cocaine)
SV: Spammernoob vs Sificon - spammer games are like russian roulette every 9/10 games he is one of the most solid players in the pool you just gotta avoid that 1/10 chance this his brain falls straight out his ass
SS: Leroipolux1 vs Fogbound Lake - lero is a future mons goat but I think fog is too much for him rn this is likely won in both prep and play
SM: LBN vs hex - much more acclaimed in sm cap and perchance just the better player all around
ORAS: JayHeaven vs Micaiah - neither has been having a highlight season but jay is just here for a good time will micaiah will still be tryharding
BW: violet river vs neomon - if I bold against neo just for him to win again I am gonna feel like an idiot but I think river is the more impressive player overall
DPP: velvet vs Plague - sad season from velv while plague has been on a tear for the most part, it's dpp tho so I don't feel strongly about this one

Looks like we got a tie so now I'm gonna predict tiebreak too for shits and giggles

Libras can either pick sv or sm here I think they have better options in both, I think clants have to pick ss I wouldn't trust dpp in a tb and if they pick oras then spammer could easily fill that

SV: dunoks vs JJ09LIE - after jj takes his x-0 dunoks gets his revenge here, in a tb olk can also put full attention on this slot and cook up something real nasty
SV: Spammernoob vs Mada OR SM: LBN vs Mada - I think mada prolly fills the opp's slot in either scenario but drops the game regardless, micaiah could also maybe take sm but would still favor LBN there
SS: One Last Kiss vs Fogbound Lake - idt ss lends itself to olk crack as well as sv does and fog just skill diffs here

Libras win tiebreak 2-1 and go to finals you heard it here first
 
1am predicts from someone whos been doing schoolwork for like 12 hours

(4) Golden Time Equilibras vs Wu-Tang Clants (4)
SV: dunoks vs JJ09LIE- At this point, it feels impossible to bet against Dunoks. Perfect regular season speaks for itself. I think JJ's definitely a solid enough player to take this one, and I'm hella excited to see this MU, but Dunoks definitely comes in as the favorite and the ace for the Libras.
SV: One Last Kiss vs Mada- Another really fun one to watch, I think both of these players can come in with something pretty creative. OLK's definitely looked a lot sharper, but playoff buff for Mada is nothing to overlook.
SV: Spammernoob vs Sificon- lowkey kinda crazy I'm predicting a full SV sweep for the Libras, but I think that shows how unbelievable they've been in the slot all season. Definitely winnable for Sifi, especially as Spammer's had some... shaky games this tour, but Spammer's definitely a favorite.
SS: Leroipolux1 vs Fogbound Lake- Lero's been extremely impressive in a smaller sample size, but that's Fogbound Lake in a CAPPL playoffs.
SM: LBN vs hex- The LBN-isms have worked out overall this season and I think he's been playing better than Hex. I will be really upset if this guy pulls up with like, a Roserade or some shit and throws.
ORAS: JayHeaven vs Micaiah- Hard to bet against Mic in general, and Jay's had a rough year.
BW: violet river vs neomon- Neo's had a really solid BW season and I think this is one of the Libra's pain points after losing their starter.
DPP: velvet vs Plague- Plague's just had a significantly better season, hard to pick against that in DPP.

I think Libras SV core has them pretty firmly favored in tiebreak if it goes to that.

(4) Shoenice Skwovets vs Keep Calm and Chuggalong (4)
SV: Quinn vs LOOR- I love Loor, and I think he's played really well in a small sample size. Quinn has also played really well, though, in a larger sample size, and I'm gonna lean that way a bit. Really fun matchup, could get really wacky.
SV: Baddy vs Kate- Don't think I can bet against the 7-0. Kate's insanely talented here too, I think this is one of those games that might end up very decided in the builder?
SV: RADU vs Taka- The RADU in for playoffs is kind of insane, but he's no slouch. I think Taka's had a really good season though, and will do a lot not to lose to RADU (or himself)
SS: entrocefalo vs dex- really hype matchup. Both players have clear talent and affinity in the tier, neither's had a really standout season; I think I trust Dex's builds over the Skwovet support here? Really close.
SM: pannu vs evakiyama!- Playoff P, except actually good. I think this is a week where Pannu can get a win in builder.
ORAS: The Strap vs avarice- insanely hard to bet against Avarice in this spot, dude's been a beast all season.
BW: seraphz vs Accel- feels a little bit more like a coinflip than it arguably should on paper; I think Seraphz been stronger overall.
DPP: crying vs Laurel- Currently, I think I trust Laurel more in this slot, but this game could absolutely get wacky.

Oops! All Ties! I think like the other series, the Skwovets SV success gives them a pretty solid edge. I think the Chugs have a good amount of flexibility though- not sure what they'd pick for their slot. If it goes to TB, light edge to Skwovets.


Not gonna do a long big old shoutout post like I usually do as work, school and life have wiped me out lately, but I wanna once again give my love and admiration to this year's Rajas. I really mean it when I say that these guys worked not just harder than most teams I've been a part of/managed, but also smarter, and it was just one of those years that wasn't gonna happen. Everyone on that team was crazy talented and awesome to interact with, I super recommend any of them for future teams and tours. I was iffy on managing this year, but I can tell you this won't be my last rodeo. Raja never give up.
 
Predicting (and hoping!) both series to go to tiebreak. Libras are 17-4 overall in SV this season and 14-2 between these three starting players, which is just an absurd statistic. Has any team in CAPPL history ever had a current-gen record this strong? I don't think they are always bringing the "best" teams to their games, but they don't need to be, either. They have three fucking killer pilots, and they clearly have an eye for what wins—even if those structures are not always safe or consistent (in my opinion). The Syclants' SV core is probably about as strong as the Libras' on-paper, but they've been underperforming for one reason or another. Playoffs mode Mada is not to be underestimated though. I legit got mind controlled by this guy when Hemos lost 1-6 in finals last year and just a couple weeks ago when Hemos got eliminated from playoff contention after going 0-3 in SV versus them. He and Micaiah generally have very good prep intution. I think they're a similar case to the Libras where they aren't always loading super consistent watertight structures (quite hard in current SV) and instead opting to trust their gut and take calculated risks in their brings. These risks have been panning out better for the Libras as far as the sheet goes, but we will see if that continues to hold true. On the other hand, pastgens are probably a Syclants sweep. I think they're favored in all but one slot (SM), and LBN's biggest opponent is often himself anyways. I'm predicting Libras to go 2-1 in SV and 2-3 in pastgens, leading to a tiebreak. I imagine the tiebreak goes SV/SM (Libras)/SS (Clants), but Libras picking SV is also possible. Really exciting series all-around, but gun to my head, I actually favor the Clants coming out on top by a tiny margin.

I won't say as much about the Chuggalongs v Skwovets given that I'm helping the Chuggas in prep and I don't want to go on record saying any of them will lose lol. But this is also an incredibly close series overall. In contrast to the Libras/Clants series in which current-gen and pastgens each look a bit lopsided, I think almost every game in this series is like 55/45. The outliers here are Taka vs RADU and seraphz v Accel, in which I think Taka and seraphz are more favored, but SV is quite variance-heavy and BW seems to be as well (from an outsider's perspective). I have a hard time not seeing this series go to tiebreak.

Ultimately, though, I'm not confident that any of these teams will win the tour. This is one hell of a playoffs lineup—every squad here has proved their strength, and it feels like they're all genuine contenders to win. Nonetheless, it's difficult to imagine any of them beating the Hemogoblins in finals. To take the Hemogoblins down, they will need to do more than just making it out of semis with good sheet records and confidence in their wins. This is the bare minimum. No, it takes more than that to beat a once-in-a-generation opponent. They are going to need to play Pokemon with their life on the line.
 
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