Maybe at least OO mention of Physical versions of Charizard Y ? It hits like a truck under sun, which calculations prove on pages 12-13 of Charizard thread mentioned by me. With Paralysis/Sticky Web support SD version is good, while DD version still hits hard enough with Flare Blitz under sun.
After using Mega Charizard-Y for an extended period of time, I feel like Dragon Pulse is mandatory. Without it, Goodra destroys you and you don't do enough damage to Dragonite. (Roost should be slashed after Dragon Pulse or put in AC, but it's hard to actually use). I also think that Modest is a better nature than Timid, since the base 100 Speed tier is fairly barren and Mega Charizard-Y needs the extra power for its coverage moves.
McGrrr's set is great and should be added. It's able to check a ton of Pokemon and at the same time it's really hard to switch into. However, i am not sure if we need enough Speed to outrun Lucario before it MEvolves, as it seems as a really situational scenario. Lucario always MEvolves the first turn that it gets in, so a 1 v 1 against those two is not only unlikely, but Lucario is always going to switch out anyway in this case, as it can't OHKO Charizard and is OHKOed back. Here is a better EV spread:
104 HP / 200 Atk / 8 SpD / 196 Spe with Adamant
Enough Speed to outrun Jolly Mamoswine and Adamant Excadrill, same defensive EVs, and a bit less investment to Atk but with the Adamant nature you actually have 29 more points in Atk. Whether those 29 more points should go to Atk or HP is something that i haven't thought about a lot, but both options seem fine to me.
Lucario will switch out 1 v 1, as Charizard is usually faster and even if Lucario knows for sure that he is faster he woudln't want to stay in only to get OHKOed when it can't OHKO back.That extra attack does guarantee a OHKO on normal Gengar with Dragon Claw, but it's a small issue.
308 speed is to beat base 90 tier and neutral 100. Lucario doesn't always get a chance to Mega Evolve until late, and it would suck to be slower and take the Close Combat. "Lucario will switch out" is really not a good argument, because if you know that Charizard is slower, then you also have to switch out. Kanga sits at base 90 as well.
308 also beats Rotom, Heracross, Pinsir etc. 312 speed is viable to beat Jolly Mega Garchomp, with those EVs coming from attack. The only impact is that normal Garchomp has a small chance of surviving Dragon Claw. 308 is 205 with Sticky Web in play, which still beats base 80 (without speed investment).
If you want to go the Adamant route, then beating Jolly Gyarados should be the benchmark, so:
104 HP / 188 Atk / 8 SpD / 208 Spe
Lucario will switch out 1 v 1, as Charizard is usually faster and even if Lucario knows for sure that he is faster he woudln't want to stay in only to get OHKOed when it can't OHKO back.
Charizard @ Charizardite X
Ability: Blaze
EVs: 104 HP / 220 Atk / 8 SDef / 176 Spd
Jolly Nature
- Flare Blitz
- Dragon Claw
- Will-O-Wisp
- Roost
1. Enough speed to beat Jolly Lucario before it can Mega Evolve.
2. Enough bulk to guarantee Sludge Bomb survival from Mega Gengar after 25% Stealth Rock damage.
3. Enough offensive potency to run riot in the pre-bank metagame.
This moveset smashes through popular defensive cores. Will-O-Wisp is recommended to break Sturdy before attacking. Similarly, it can soften other things to reduce Flare Blitz recoil. Speaking of recoil, Dragon Claw is consequently your main attacking option (even against e.g. Trevenant). Use Flare Blitz sparingly (but it's always a threat), as your main weakness is recoil leaving Charizard within revenge-kill range.
Will-O-Wisp cripples common switch ins and allows Mega Charizard X to beat Choice Band Azumarill 1v1 if it needs to. Once mega evolved, this can switch in to Rotom appliances at will (Roost can stall out Hydro Pump), yet nothing is keen to switch in to Charizard. Trevenant and Gorgeist are also left crying in the corner.
I'm curious as to why you chose dragon claw over outrage for a dragon move. Also it seems that this set lacks coverage against rock and electric types that would be common switches against a Charizard. What about Earthquake over Will-O-Wisp?
Outrage and Flare Blitz are both liabilities, but for different reasons. Locking yourself in to Outrage is out of the question with only 308 speed. Will-O-Wisp is a game changer that enables Mega Charizard X to beat Choice Band Azumarill 1v1... just consider that for a moment, as Azumarill is supposedly one of its premier counters. Burning opposing physical Pokemon really complements its 111 base defense and Roost.
What does Earthquake actually offer in the Heatran-less metagame?
Nevermind, completely forgot that Mega Char X is neutral to Close Combat (the Flying / Fire typing was stuck in my head).The only information you have at the decision making point is that you know that Lucario is likely to be faster:
Jolly:0/252/0/0/4/252 35.994%
Jolly:4/252/0/0/0/252 9.949%
Adamant:4/252/0/0/0/252 8.548%
Timid:0/0/0/252/4/252 8.244%
Adamant:0/252/0/0/4/252 5.591%
Hasty:0/252/0/4/0/252 4.122%
Other 27.552%
58.3% of Lucario are + Speed, with an unknown % forming the "other" category.
Compared to:
Timid:4/0/0/252/0/252 29.415%
Adamant:4/252/0/0/0/252 20.400%
Jolly:4/252/0/0/0/252 12.874%
Modest:4/0/0/252/0/252 6.094%
Hasty:0/4/0/252/0/252 2.837%
Lonely:0/252/0/4/0/252 1.518%
Other 26.861%
45.1% of Charizards are +Speed, with an unknown % forming the "other" category.
If we have already Mega Evolved, only 38.7% of Mega Charizard X are Jolly (only counting known Jolly and Adamant).
It is certainly not inconceivable that Lucario will Mega Evolve and attack, hoping that we're slower, especially because giving us a free Dragon Dance could cost the battle.
This is your decision pay-off matrix:
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252 Atk Adaptability Lucario Close Combat vs. 104 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard X: 260-306 (80.49 - 94.73%)
1. When Lucario attacks, we lose out whatever decision we make.
2. When Lucario switches, we obviously gain by attacking.
We've already established that Lucario doesn't always switch. Since we know that Charizard is likely slower, we know that we're going to faint (due to Flare Blitz recoil even if we survive Close Combat) if Lucario attacks. Therefore, unless we can afford to lose Charizard, game theory dictates that we must switch.
Now consider the pay-off matrix for a Jolly Charizard:
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Attacking is a dominating strategy. We don't care what Lucario does, because we gain regardless.
move 3: Focus Blast / Brick Breaker