Finally, a starmie that doesn't cringe at blissey and laughs at pursuit.

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The current influx of mixed-sweepers using over-heat style moves got me looking for good mixed sweepers, and during that, the concept of CB-starmie came to mind... Starmie is almost always a bolt-beamer, moderately sturdy, countered by any strong pokemon that's not weak to Boltbeam and carries pursuit... Metagross/Heracross/TYRANITAR. So, I sat down and came up with some calculations for a Naive 252 atk/252 spd/6 def starmie. (Only real threat is pursuit because it's un-switchable, so you have to take the hit, hence why the -sdef instead of -def.)

Keep bolt-beam in the form of blizz/thunder for similar damage and special-sweeping ability. 409 attack after CB isn't something to scoff at, especially seeing as how blissey may be jumping in to handle a bolt-beamer. Waterfall/return for coverage, blizz (lesser special attack, more damage to compensate...) Thunder (same reason...) The real key to this is that starmie is a premier bolt-beamer, and getting hit with a CB'd Return or CB-stabbed waterfall might just hurt a special-tank. Mind you, it makes starmie much, much less sturdy, but the damage is nice enough to elminate some threats. It's primary purpose will to be mix things up and confuse your opponent, possibly getting you a free KO or two against players not expecting a mixed starmie.

It also handles most of the usual starmie counters I can think of. (Read as: bulky things with pursuit.) Also, avoid going 1v1 against an enemy starmie... You'll lose 90% of the time. (No calculations on that. Just pure logic. You can hurt them on the switch, but then get your butt out of there. Too many variations to do calculations for anyway.)I'll start with the four most obnoxious starmie-counters I can think of, CBweavile, CBtyranitar, metagross, and CBHeracross. (CS-heracross won't likely run pursuit, and will thusly be switch-out-able.) And heck, I'll include blissey too, since she's the bane of most special-attackers and is the single most used pokemon in the D/P metagame (as far as I can tell.)​
  • ~CBweavile
Standard CBweavile with neutral def and 10 extra hp will take an average of 79% of weavile's hp with waterfall on the switch-in, enough to OHKO with residual damage or stealth-rock, or two-layers of spikes with sandstorm, etc. Otherwise, Starmie is OHKO'd (or 2HKO'd AND outsped) 100% of the time against CBweavile. (Read as: Weavile is an OHKO with SR and prediction. Starmie is 100% dead if the prior two requirements were not fulfilled and weavile is running pursuit) If you MUST MUST MUST take on a weavile 1v1, and you don't know if it's pursuit or night-slash, I would assume it's pursuit, hurt it significantly with waterfall (surviving CBweavile's first attack with like, 4 hp), and then die from the second pursuit (Only if you had no residual damage would this work.)
  • ~CBTyranitar
A CB'd waterfall would do an average of 217 or therabouts points of damage to a max def/hp tyranitar, (the def is a bit iffy, but tyranitar would be a common switch in to a TB, using pursuit to eat starmie.) It'd be a 2HKO most of the time... (and max def/hp means that starmie won't be hit quite as hard...) Sadly, CBtar is still only a 2HKO unless it's taken residual damage from spikes or something.

Calculations: CBTTar, One pursuit (without the switch) would OHKO starmie with sandstorm damage. 255 MINIMUM damage, sandstorm destroying the last 6 hp starmie has left. So if you can scout and see if it's not got pursuit and is instead running crunch, you're good to switch into your 4x dark-resist that Great-sage so commonly mentions. Otherwise, 1v1, CBtar wins. Non-CBtar loses MOST of the time. CSTar wins 100% of the time. (Though I doubt CSTar is being run with pursuit, so you could switch out.)

The ideal situation is you send starmie to "revenge-kill" something weak to bolt-beam... and hit TTar on the switch: They send in TTAr and get hit by waterfall, doing 70%ish of it's HP if it's standard CBTar. Second hit kills it before starmie gets hit. In this scenario, if they're standard neutral def/hp CB/CStar, it's a guaranteed 2HKO. CBtar dies outright, unable to do anything but sandstorm... CS hurts, but dies.
  • ~CBCross:
If you desperately fear CBcross, run HP-flying instead of blizzard or thunder. Starmie's still-viable special-attack will guaranteed 2HKO even a
sleep-talk heracross. Prediction is key here. If you outspeed it AND get it on the switch, all is good. If you don't outspeed it, it's probably not
running pursuit and you get to switch out after doing 225 (average) points of damage. (HP flying is also handy for breloom.)
  • ~Blissey:
(This is assumed it's a max HP/Max Def/Bold blissey. I'd rather not do other calculations, as this is the bliss I am most aquainted with.) Average
Waterfall does around 293 or so damage, or 40% of blissey's HP. That's a rather convenient 3HKO (no softboils on that number) on blissey with
leftovers recovery. Now, if you can get blissey on the switch, that's a nice chunk of damage you just did.

At this point, you can either stay in if it's a CM bliss with no fear of being thunderwaved, or stay in and prepare for a long battle of waterfall/softboiled/attacks. If she doesn't softboil on turn 3 or 4, she's dead. If she uses thunderwave, it doesn't affect you because you have natural cure on your side. Kill her, then switch to the appropriate counter and starmie's just fine.

However, do NOT stay in against blissey if she is only using softboiled, as she'll recover 10% of her hitpoints every turn against you, assuming you're not paralyzed fully. Only stay in if you expect they'll have the gumption to attack instead of Softboiling within the first three softboileds after thunderwave. (And you are willing to risk a full paralysis/fully-healing opponent's blissey.) Personally, if you fear Blissey that much, you can run a "special-sweeper heavy team" and include the starmie and a poke with pursuit to handle bliss. 1 waterfall and a strong pursuit will kill this blissey. Just beware of paralysis. The key to taking blissey out in this case is to force a bad switch onto your starmie. In most situations, this will kill blissey, leaving room for your special-sweepers to come in and kick serious butt.
  • ~Metagross:
Ugh. I'm writing this as I do the calculations, and I will tell you, I'm seriously dreading doing the calcs for metagross. IIIICKY. For the sake of
minimizing the number of calculations I'm going to do, I will assume this is an adamant, 252 hp, 6 def metagross. (Seems common enough to
me.) Actually, now that the math is done, I've calculated somewhere around a 0% chance of sucess. It'd be a 3hko without leftovers, and starmie is unlikely to survive long enough to do that. IF you are at full health, hit metagross on the switch in and can survive one of its attacks, you will kill it.

However, that being said, I find that unlikely. (You have to outspeed it AND survive one attack for this to work.) I'd highly reccomend switching out, despite the threat of pursuit. If you know they have pursuit and want to risk things, you can probably survive a SINGLE CB'd pursuit, allowing you to get the 3hko.
  • ~Anything else:
For the most part, starmie will surprise your general special-defender/person expecting a bolt-beam into a bad switch, getting a CB'd waterfall to the face. This will convince them that you are either insane, or that this is a pure-physical starmie. At this point, you've got the upper hand. If you switch in starmie, and they switch in a physical defender, you've still got blizzard/thunder/hp-flying on your side to smack them down. As we know, starmie's only two good physical sweeping moves are waterfall and return, so it's possible they'll send in a rather intimidating salamence... getting a blizzard on the swtich if you predicted right. And the reason why I never included anything in the killed-counter list that resisted water is primarily because no sane person would switch a grass or dragon type into a starmie unless they thought you were a genius and expected you to expect them to send in something not weak to ice, so instead used thunderbolt blah blah blah.
  • ~Final word
Also, yes yes, I do keep repeating "if you predicted right." Yes, it is harder said than done, but that's why this is Smogon and not Serebii. This is an extremely hard to use set, requiring heavy strategy and a willingness to take some risks. (IE: predicting a switch, and then switching to starmie, hoping they'll think you made a mistake on what they were going to bring in.)

In terms of team-building, I'd highly reccomend running this starmie with a good special sweepers and a CBTar. CBtar is fully capable of finishing
what starmie started using pursuit, especially in the case of blissey, while being fully able to handle itself otherwise. As long as blissey dies, and you can bring CBtar in on cresselia, your special sweepers have little to fear. If they're not running bliss or cresselia, I suspect you'll have the upper-hand. Just make sure your special sweepers resist each other's weaknesses and you have the edge over the no-bliss opponent. Special/mixed lucario and slowbro, anyone?

And that's it. The post is over. The first-post analysis of physical starmie is over. Bring me more material, or do calculations on your own, and
let's see how far we can take this baby.
 
In particular, what stuff did I skip? Just other pokemon with pursuit? Threats to starmie? I'm curious, and have plenty of calculations that I'm willing to do still. (Bleh.)
 
An actual format of the set might work here, you know, something like:

Starmie *Choice Band
Trait: Natural Cure
EVs: 252Atk, 252Spd, 6SpAtk/Hp
Naive Nature (+Spd, -SpDef)
- Move 1
- Move 2
- Move 3
- Move 4

Tyranitars don't switch when Starmie's out, and that's the same thing Starmie should be doing when Tyranitar's out.

Props for trying a new moveset, but I don't see too much of a new standard set here. Lets see what other guys think.
 
I wouldn't be Dragontamer if I didn't supplement this with a defense tier discussion.

Starmie is guaranteed to OHKOs Defense Tier 108.84 and below with Waterfall. This Tier includes the extremely defensive likes of Alakazam and Beedrill :-/ Starmie two-hits defense tier 116.11 and below, making no-guard Machamp unsafe on the switch in (yes, that was a bad pun. No def I mean).

116.11 is also the magic OHKO mark for water-weak foes for Starmie. Starmie here OHKOs no-def Arcanine (115.9) and below. 123.38 is the Two-Hit KO mark for 2x weak foes. Max-Def Max-HP Gliscor just misses this guarantee mark, but hits the chance for OHKO.

With Stealth Rock support, Starmie gets 1.4 tiers added to that, allowing it to OHKO tier 110.24 and below. Again, this is including defensive beats like Raticate... oh who am I kidding?

I don't know about you, but Starmie's physical side is ignored for a reason :-/
 
In particular, what stuff did I skip? Just other pokemon with pursuit? Threats to starmie? I'm curious, and have plenty of calculations that I'm willing to do still. (Bleh.)
Oh no, you didn't skip anything at all. I just skimmed some stuff. I read the first big paragraph because I figured it would discuss the whole post.

I just read the entire post so now I'm filled with all of the info. ^_^
 
Interesting concept, but I dunno how effective it'd actually end up being. You lose a lot of durability, and you're still at a disadvantage against most opponents.

Also, an actual solid moveset would be nice >_>
 
Your post was difficult to read, so I'm sorry to say that I did not read all of it. From what I did read, though, I don't think this will be very effective at all.

You are proposing:

Starmie
Naive, 252 Atk, 252 Spd (this yields 249 Atk, 236 SpAtk)
-Waterfall
-Return
-Thunder
-Blizzard
@Choice Band

I don't know about you, but I don't switch Tyranitar or Weavile into Starmie normally, so I don't think your calculations are very valuable. A 3HKO on Blissey is really not that impressive, even if it catches me by surprise. Floatzel does the speedy physical water Pokemon thing much better, and even then it does not see any use.
 
Is there supposed to be a moveset with this post? Cuz I didnt see one.

And why would you run HP flying for heracross when Starmie already learns psychic?

psychic against heracross = 270 bp
HP flying against heracross = 280
 
You are using the wrong stat for those calculations. As Murkrow pointed out, with Naive Starmie's Attack is 249, which becomes 373 with Choice Band. To achieve 409 Attack you need to make it Naughty, so your Starmie is even less powerful than the calculations reveal.
 
Starmie is not sturdy enough to grant a miss with Blizzard/Thunder. Not in this generation when pursuiters mean instant death for it. Thats the first flaw. Now, coming to Weavile switching into Starmie, Weavile is faster. So you will be in a "Night Slash or Pursuit" battle. So if you think you are getting a KO on Weavile that easily, sad to say you are not.

On to Tyranitar, might be the only reason to run CB since Choice Specs version doesn't 2HKO without any outside support.

On Heracross, you can't tell whether its running a Choice Band or a Choice Scarf unless you have found out earlier.

On Metagross, yours is not a 2HKO but its pursuit is a 2HKO if you do stay assuming CB. So you die in any case and switching out is worse.

On Blissey, Blissey does soak up all your attacks but cannot do anything to a recover Starmie. CB Waterfall isn't even a 2HKO. It would just heal back with Softboiled instantly and won't switch out. So there is no point.

I would use Choice Specs over Choice Band anytime of the day. Just my 2 cents.
 
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