Gen 8 Smogon University Usage Statistics Discussion Thread

Marty

Always more to find
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Any response to this Marty? I know stats don’t lie but Steelix having 6.8% usage in UU is just highly suspect to me when the past two months it had 1.868% and 2%.
This is in fact how weighting works, which is explained in the OP including links to Antar's original FAQ about weighting. It's clearly not just two good players using Steelix if you look at the moveset stats. Multiple people around 1630 Glicko and higher were using some combination of Steelix/Scyther/Roserade/Incineroar/Keldeo/Sylveon/Dhelmise/Gardevoir/Drapion on the ladder during the dozen days after DLC. Steelix was probably not a terrible choice given that these players were winning.

You would see similar anomalies for a given Pokemon no matter what Glicko threshold you wanted to use for weighting. When Mesprit moved up from PU to NU last gen, it had 6.28% usage in the 1630 stats and almost 17% usage in the 1760 stats. This gen's higher usage cutoff wouldn't even have "saved" it that month or any month after that until the end of Gen 7 because it stayed well over 5% in 1630 and well over 10% in 1760.

If Steelix becomes unviable in UU with all the new drops from OU then it will fall back down to RU, likely next month since it's sitting around 1.8% again as of a few days ago.
 

pokemonisfun

UU Community Member, Neighborhood Perfume
is a Community Contributoris a Tiering Contributor
Heya! Prefacing this with the fact that I'm far from an expert on statistics, but I have an inquiry about the recent UU stats. I also don't want to come off as disrespectful, so sorry in advance if I do!

So, today we saw Steelix and Snorlax rise to UU from RU - this was a huge surprise to UUers and RUers alike, because while these Pokemon aren't bad in UU, per se, they're far from stellar and are not consistently used in tour play or on the ladder. Their usage at 1630 was as follows:
Code:
| 28   | Steelix            |  6.86598% | 1750   |  2.102% | 1537   |  2.287% |
| 40   | Snorlax            |  4.64354% | 2587   |  3.107% | 2095   |  3.117% |
This seemed highly abnormal to begin with - after all, just last month Steelix was at 1.86%, and Snorlax was at a mere 1.37%. Originally I had put this down to something like a potential metagame shift I hadn't noticed, or a laddering anomaly - but these numbers are just way too high. On further inspection, though, I noticed even more outliers. The biggest one was Qwilfish.

Qwilfish is a Pokemon that's not even ranked on our viability rankings - this isn't normally the biggest of deals, the ladder loves to use Pokemon considered unviable (see something like Arcanine in the last generation of UU, which was considered totally unviable but remained UU by usage for a long, long time). The reason it's weird in this case, though, is that Qwilfish is a) far from a fan favourite, b) not UU by usage (so it wouldn't show up in the teambuilder and therefore newer players are less inclined to automatically put it on their team), and c) had very few raw usages:
Code:
 | 44   | Qwilfish           |  4.05179% | 761    |  0.914% | 693    |  1.031% |
This is very high on its own, but what's even stranger is that when you change to 1760 stats (there are only 2 players who consistently maintain a rating above 1760 on the ladder, and only one of those is above 1760 on the ladder right now), Qwilfish's usage goes even higher:
Code:
| 33   | Qwilfish           |  6.03820% | 761    |  0.914% | 693    |  1.031% |
This is very abnormal. This trend can be observed in other Pokemon, too, primarily those that show up in stall (the two top players, pif and hjkhj, often ladder with stall) - Vileplume at 1630 has ~2.4% usage, but sits at ~5.1% at 1760. Quagsire is at ~1.7% at 1630, but ~4.5% at 1760.

I'm not sure if this is just down to how weighting works, and I would love to have this explained to me if so. But the point of this post is that I'm unconvinced that 1630 stats are currently an inaccurate way to determine usage for lower tiers. On the UU ladder, only 9 players are >1629 right now, while on the RU ladder, it's only 1. This has meant that stats are extremely skewed and has resulted in what I would consider "unfair" tier shifts - in this case, UU has taken two very important Pokemon from RU, two Pokemon that are not truly relevant in our metagame and do not really depict it. Perhaps the weighting could be re-looked at? I'm sure there were no errors in the actual pulling of the usage statistics, but this doesn't seem entirely accurate at all. Thank you in advance. :>

quick edit: i really don't want this to seem like an attack on hjkhj or pif! they're both excellent players who just happen to be high on the ladder, this weighting situation thing isn't their fault at all, sorry if it came off accusative!
Adaam too

lol you guys are aware stats are based off of glicko right? not elo? and true UU ladder heroes know about theflawless win who spams spikes teams, including qwilfish
 
Hi, in the moveset section when you go to the check a counters section you see something like this:

| Checks and Counters |
| Excadrill 63.032 (73.61±2.65) |
| (4.8% KOed / 68.9% switched out) |

What's the meaning of the first number (63.032) and the second one (73.61±2.65)?
 
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Hi, in the moveset section when you go to the check a counters section you see something like this:

| Checks and Counters |
| Excadrill 63.032 (73.61±2.65) |
| (4.8% KOed / 68.9% switched out) |

What's the meaning of the first number (63.032) and the second one (73.61±2.65)?
It's easier to explain it as 3 numbers.

The second number: % KOed + % switched out. (%)

The third number: the standard deviation of the second number. (σ)

The first number: a weighted score, to remove bias towards low probability matchups. Calculated as (% - 4σ)
 

Marty

Always more to find
is a Site Content Manageris a Battle Simulator Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Top Researcher
Research Leader
Right now, Gyarados's ability usage statistics in OU look like this.
Code:
+----------------------------------------+
| Abilities                              |
| Mold Breaker 100.000%                  |
+----------------------------------------+
I can already tell from Gyrados's Bulbapedia article that it always has mold breaker after it mega evolves, so this information is probably not very useful. On the other hand, I would like to know what percentage of Gyaradoses had intimidate before they mega evolved. Can moveset stats files show these statistics from now on?
The statistics still look like this. Is there any chance that the programmers can change this later, or are they all sure this is how mega evolutions' abilities are supposed to be reported?
 
unless i'm mistaken, the usage stats also dont show whether a pokemon is more likely to be gigantimax or dynamax for the formats where it is relevant
 

DoW

formally Death on Wings
is a Pre-Contributor
The sim server uses UTC-5; the timestamps in /stats/ use UTC+0.
Assuming the time source for these is the same as for chat logs, it would include DST whenever relevant, right?
e.g. I see the following in the monotype room logs for Sunday:
Code:
01:59:57 |J| <user>
01:00:02 |c| <user>|<message>
 

Marty

Always more to find
is a Site Content Manageris a Battle Simulator Administratoris a Programmeris a Super Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Top Researcher
Research Leader
Stats for November 1st to 14th are now up!

Assuming the time source for these is the same as for chat logs, it would include DST whenever relevant, right?
e.g. I see the following in the monotype room logs for Sunday:
Code:
01:59:57 |J| <user>
01:00:02 |c| <user>|<message>
Yeah, DST affects the reported time for battle logs.
Thanks for the reply. So the data includes until midnight utc-5, end of month? (Or Nov 14 in case of next tier shift)
Correct!
 
I have a quick question about how usage percentages are calculated. Below is the usage of Hyper Beam on Porygon-Z from the most recent usage stats:

1605476686109.png


How is that value calculated to a usage of 97% for the rating of 1760?

Also, how is the usage percentage calculated as well?
 
I have a quick question about how usage percentages are calculated. Below is the usage of Hyper Beam on Porygon-Z from the most recent usage stats:

View attachment 291694

How is that value calculated to a usage of 97% for the rating of 1760?

Also, how is the usage percentage calculated as well?
First of all, I'm not in charge of these stats at all, just searched a lot about it myself, so linking sources.
The way most of these stats work, is that it simply counts how often something is used. Based on the rating category, it gets weighted a certain way. What you see there is just those weighted counts. To turn that into percentages, you take the sum of all those counts, then divide the values by that total count.

It looks like you used the vgc21 stats, so I'll use those for the example. The total count can more easily be calculated by just looking at the abilities, since it are only 3 numbers but the count is still the same. You get 0.1814087656 + 0.0610646325 + 12.2229365078 = 12.4654099059
12.1258050853 / 12.4654099059 ≈ 0.97, or 97%.

For your other question, it's not exactly the usage at a 1760 rating. I believe the idea is that how much you count in the stats, is based on the probability your rating is above 1760. This uses your Glicko rating.

Sources:
- Very old post explaining the weighted stats, https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/weighted-stats-faq.3478570/
- Post explaining how you can turn it into percentages https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...s-discussion-thread-mk-3.3591776/post-7192755
 
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First of all, I'm not in charge of these stats at all, just searched a lot about it myself, so linking sources.
The way most of these stats work, is that it simply counts how often something is used. Based on the rating category, it gets weighted a certain way. What you see there is just those weighted counts. To turn that into percentages, you take the sum of all those counts, then divide the values by that total count.

It looks like you used the vgc21 stats, so I'll use those for the example. The total count can more easily be calculated by just looking at the abilities, since it are only 3 numbers but the count is still the same. You get 0.1814087656 + 0.0610646325 + 12.2229365078 = 12.4654099059
12.1258050853 / 12.4654099059 ≈ 0.97, or 97%.

For your other question, it's not exactly the usage at a 1760 rating. I believe the idea is that how much you count in the stats, is based on the probability your rating is above 1760. This uses your Glicko rating.

Sources:
- Very old post explaining the weighted stats, https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/weighted-stats-faq.3478570/
- Post explaining how you can turn it into percentages https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...s-discussion-thread-mk-3.3591776/post-7192755
Oh, that makes much more sense. As for the Glicko, I pretty much determined it was ratings 1760+. Hence the first range going from 0-1499. So, in theory the usage of the Pokémon in general versus the overall meta should be able to be calculated the same, if that is correct?

Would you be able to explain the calculation behind the teammates? I'm having a hard time figuring it out since some of the values are in negatives while others are in positives. So, doing the same calculation like I did for the Abilities/Moves/Items doesn't seem to work.
 
Marty, I have a question. I understand that there's no LC shifts, recently. I went back to the data of July-November to collect the LC usage data and calculated based on my understanding on the rules on regular shifts (taking the average of the months within the quarter). And according to those rules, there should only be 30 Pokemon in LC UU "banlist". What am I missing here?

While I understand that it doesn't hurt LC because there seems to be no LC UU, it only would be a concern for the incoming 2021 regular shifts.

Edit: Nevermind, I forgot to add the new Pokemon which weren't quick-dropped.
 
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