Razza said:
i would be interested if you were to post logs from wcop which were decided "by matchup", as it seems to me, most games allegedly decided by matchup could have been avoided, or the matchup angle is overstated.
ok.
kokoloko vs. Oristeros
Oristeros uses a near carbon copy of Ojama's team that matches up very well against teams without spinners such as koko's. While koko admittedly could have played this a bit better, all Oristeros had to do was switch to the correct wall and wear him down with SR; really, the only way Oris could've lost this is if he
didn't make the obvious moves.
Lamppost vs. panamaxis
I don't see how this game was won on anything but an advantageous team matchup. Lamp lost the weather war on the second turn, didn't make any spectacular plays, but was able to win thanks to a huge team advantage, as sun very rarely loses to rain.
IFM vs. Bloo
Rain offense almost always loses to sand stall. Bloo didn't have to make any big moves because he was at such a large advantage right from team preview, whereas IFM made several fantastic moves but just couldn't dig himself out of something he had no control over.
These are just a few examples, seeing as I don't have much time right now...I mean no disrespect at all to any of the players whose battles I used as examples with the comments I made about them, they're simply to help people understand how much of a factor team matchup plays.
To address your other points:
Razza said:
If matchup was such a guessing game and the most important factor as you put it, why are certain players so much more dominant than others in the BW tournament scene, or perhaps they are just really lucky with their matchups?
Because the best players aren't lucky with their matchups, they choose them based on what they know their opponent likes to use. There are several dominant BW tournament players that rarely make big plays [which, in my mind and many others' as well, is what really makes a player good], because they've prepared their team for their opponent so well that they don't have to. Team matchup shouldn't be so extreme that one style almost automatically loses to another [example -- the most powerful rain offense often cannot break a half-decent sand stall team, while sand stall teams usually stand no chance against Deoxys-D heavy offense]. That's why I'm backing yee's nomination of banning Tales / Toed / Deo-D, as I believe this significantly lowers the matchup factor and puts more emphasis on actual battling skill.
yee said:
1. If it's a 50/50 guess, it's not skill. There are predictions that factor in more but not when referring to a coin flip.
2. Shed Shell Heatran w/ SR + Dragons sand teams beat sun 99% of the time.
Razza said:
This statement alone shows that you lack some really crucial knowledge of the game. A 50/50 is
not skill because it is a guessing game that doesn't have a right answer. Other forms of prediction factor in risk/reward, opposing player tendencies, and a few more things you seem sadly un-informed of.
As for the Shed Shell Heatran completely destroying sun thing...how does it not destroy sun? The only thing Heatran has to fear on sun teams is Dugtrio, and with Shed Shell, it can escape from that, letting it switch in for free whenever the hell it wants to throw around sun-boosted fire moves and phaze for SR damage. Maybe SS Tran doesn't beat sun teams literally 99% of the time because I doubt only 1% of players use Earthquake Venusaur, but you asking for proof on this is simply being petty; furthermore, EQ Saur is still rare, and a good Heatran user will scout out Venusaur's moveset through good switching, because if it runs EQ then it loses on coverage against something else and you should be able to counter it that way, and if it lacks EQ, it'll switch and you know Tran is safe to wall it for the rest of the game without fearing Dugtrio. As for Dragons giving sun teams trouble...this has been known for a very long time, and you asking for evidence on this just proves you're being pedantic.
On a side note, how about providing your own argument backed by your own evidence for once instead of always making generalisations and asking to see other people's proof?