NOC JOAT 10 Game Thread [Completed, GG Mafia]

Heading to bed now. Just noting that I 2/3-expect to wake up with the game already over because of that vote.

The other 1/3 of me thinks 4 other people, 2 mafia and 2 voting = by raw math, 50% voter is village and 2/3 of getting the vote right, 50% mafia who'd only vote village = 1/3 chance this is a very good vote to be on, if substantiated later.
 
Aura Guardian said:
Heading to bed now. Just noting that I 2/3-expect to wake up with the game already over because of that vote.

The other 1/3 of me thinks 4 other people, 2 mafia and 2 voting = by raw math, 50% voter is village and 2/3 of getting the vote right, 50% mafia who'd only vote village = 1/3 chance this is a very good vote to be on, if substantiated later.
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I am a bit confused by this analysis.

From your point of view, if you're town, I am 50% town with a 2/3 chance of getting right. The other 50% is I'm a mafia who can only vote village (and now would be glued to LS), and 1/3 times that's "very good vote to be on."

In both instances, you would vote between me and LS as not voting between me and LS would be throwing since we know there is a 51-90% chance either of us are mafia, so you would want to vote between us two today. And if you're going to vote between us two today, it should be with the person who has 1 vote on them but is still hanging around.

I'm town because mafia doesn't get any benefit from voting themselves. If I'm mafia and LS isn't then I basically forced a 50/50 with a townie, one that I would likely lose. Because LS is one of the most well liked people, and I am not. Why would I force a 50/50 in a town where I know Neon hates me, I know Pulsar dislikes me and AG has been scumreading me since Day 2.
You can chalk it all up to me "baiting," but that's just being lazy.

JALMONT said:
ok when you flip town i'll look very hard at AG and LS i promise
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Which takes me to the reason why Jailmont was killed. He was the only one worth looking at LS. Even my vote against LS yesterday, the actual post was talking mostly about Neon.

Despite JALMONT being scumread and even a likely candidate for vote today, he was killed at night. I think the mafia killed JALMONT to stop any further progression in the thread. The mafia were basically in a good position and killed JALMONT to keep that good position. With 3 town and 2 mafia, undeniably one of the mafia have gone deep. It's time to look at the people who have been around the longest, contributed the least, but have been town read the most. And the two people who got the most free passes/town reads were 1. Pulsar and 2. Lady Salamence.
 
ZippyDoo200 said:
I am a bit confused by this analysis.

From your point of view, if you're town, I am 50% town with a 2/3 chance of getting right. The other 50% is I'm a mafia who can only vote village (and now would be glued to LS), and 1/3 times that's "very good vote to be on."

In both instances, you would vote between me and LS as not voting between me and LS would be throwing since we know there is a 51-90% chance either of us are mafia, so you would want to vote between us two today. And if you're going to vote between us two today, it should be with the person who has 1 vote on them but is still hanging around.

I'm town because mafia doesn't get any benefit from voting themselves. If I'm mafia and LS isn't then I basically forced a 50/50 with a townie, one that I would likely lose. Because LS is one of the most well liked people, and I am not. Why would I force a 50/50 in a town where I know Neon hates me, I know Pulsar dislikes me and AG has been scumreading me since Day 2.
You can chalk it all up to me "baiting," but that's just being lazy.



Which takes me to the reason why Jailmont was killed. He was the only one worth looking at LS. Even my vote against LS yesterday, the actual post was talking mostly about Neon.

Despite JALMONT being scumread and even a likely candidate for vote today, he was killed at night. I think the mafia killed JALMONT to stop any further progression in the thread. The mafia were basically in a good position and killed JALMONT to keep that good position. With 3 town and 2 mafia, undeniably one of the mafia have gone deep. It's time to look at the people who have been around the longest, contributed the least, but have been town read the most. And the two people who got the most free passes/town reads were 1. Pulsar and 2. Lady Salamence.
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Well, given how off most of my reads have been, I was mostly ignoring them then. And logic does say to vote one way or the other, except Neon wasn't really online with anyone last night, so there's still the chance to be very wrong. That thing LS mentioned of mafia trying to frantically get him online and all that.

As for Baiting, I'm pretty sure LS and I had the same reason - because you don't hide your activity, we saw you hovering over the thread, presumably ready to unvote at a moment's notice. Given that you apparently vanished for hours, I see I was wrong and you were really voting that way instead of trying a play to bait the mafia into revealing themselves by trying to pile onto that vote. Yeah, that's what I meant by baiting, in this particular circumstance. Granted, not the others.

The JALMONT kill is an interesting case. A bit WIFOM-y, but interesting.
 
Aura Guardian said:
Well, given how off most of my reads have been, I was mostly ignoring them then. And logic does say to vote one way or the other, except Neon wasn't really online with anyone last night, so there's still the chance to be very wrong. That thing LS mentioned of mafia trying to frantically get him online and all that.
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Well given that Neon is around and has been around for a while, what do you have to say?
 
Lady Salamence said:
if zippy and i are both town (i think this is likely) it's pulsar+neon since they both haven't been online at the same time yet
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Why would you think I am town?

If I am town accusing you then the mafia is 100% pulsar and neon because everyone else has been around relatively near each other. Obviously it's possible that the team misplayed and didn't vote, but I think that's unlikely since AG brought it up over 12 hours ago, and we've both explained the concept multiple times.

Myself (zippy), AG, LS and pulsar were all around at the same time yesterday after I voted Lady Salamence. From 11:23pm-12:58am. That time frame is more than enough time to check the thread, check scum chat/discord.

If we follow your logic, then Pulsar + AG are most likely not teammates, as they would have voted you off and won.
So it's Pulsar/AG + Zippy/LS/Neon from that perspective. You are reading yourself and me as town, meaning you 100% think Neon is mafia here, confirmed by PoE, or you didn't think to this point.

This is why I do not think you are the same alignment as Neon.
 
ZippyDoo200 said:
Why would you think I am town?

If I am town accusing you then the mafia is 100% pulsar and neon because everyone else has been around relatively near each other. Obviously it's possible that the team misplayed and didn't vote, but I think that's unlikely since AG brought it up over 12 hours ago, and we've both explained the concept multiple times.

Myself (zippy), AG, LS and pulsar were all around at the same time yesterday after I voted Lady Salamence. From 11:23pm-12:58am. That time frame is more than enough time to check the thread, check scum chat/discord.

If we follow your logic, then Pulsar + AG are most likely not teammates, as they would have voted you off and won.
So it's Pulsar/AG + Zippy/LS/Neon from that perspective. You are reading yourself and me as town, meaning you 100% think Neon is mafia here, confirmed by PoE, or you didn't think to this point.

This is why I do not think you are the same alignment as Neon.
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yeah i think it is neon and pulsar
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
Yo can we have a remake of #677?
Wait, Celever's dead.
But still.
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Basically
3mafia 2town

Zippy votes Lady Salamence

If Zippy is Town and Lady Salamence is Town, then mafia comes in and vote LS, ending the game.

This is where we are at basically. LS is saying we are both town. If this was the case, then the two mafia would've voted her off already. You and Pulsar haven't been online together to our knowledge, while everyone else has been. So from LS' point of view, only you two can be mafia.


So to sum it up, if Neon + Pulsar can be online together at the same time, and LS isn't lynched, then me and LS are confirmed different alignments. And Lady Salamence is townreading me, and I'm scumreading her. So it becomes clear from that point who is lying and who is telling the truth.

Also, less important but we know that Pulsar + AG are not mafia together.
 
ZippyDoo200 said:
So to sum it up, if Neon + Pulsar can be online together at the same time, and LS isn't lynched, then me and LS are confirmed different alignments. And Lady Salamence is townreading me, and I'm scumreading her. So it becomes clear from that point who is lying and who is telling the truth.
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to be fair if pulsar and neon are ever online at the same time my read on you immediately becomes scum, i'm townreading you based on gameplay so far but if the likely scumteam dont just end the game then i can no longer townread you
 
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