~ ik this is all very preliminary but thinking that venomoth should be S. its 'default' sludge bomb/ mega drain/ qd / roost (modest) is extremely hard to deal with at +1, the only pokemon that it doesnt outspeed are electrode which can only twave (not exactly a reliable way to deal with it since it can keep boosting) or explode (and explosion doesnt ko after rocks) and outspeeding +1 venomoth is literally its niche in the tier, pika-s does 37-49% with zippy zap depending on nature, and timid jolteon which speed ties and does less than 40% with tbolt. as for other offensive pokemon, for example zard x are almost ohko'ed at +1 after rocks, and m-blastoise cannot accomplish anything outside of dragon tail (and if m-blastoise also lacks aqua jet healthy venomoth can even set up in front of it); and the primary pokemon that resist its attack(s) like tentacruel, haunter to whatever extent that is relevant, cant damage it sufficiently so they just become set up bait instead, magneton can twave but that only rly helps due to the full paralysis chance. in general, outside of marowak-a either an opposing pokemon needs to be rly healthy or venomoth needs to be very weakened to check it at +1, and ofc some pokemon such as dugtrio just lose to it at +1 regardless.
venomoth's main issue is setting up, but it will almost always have an opportunity to set up at some point even without sleep powder.
and sleep powder can screw up an opposing healthy pokemon that expects to check the above set (obv that is luck dependent) in addition to making set up easier. sleep powder usually should replace roost, or it can be run mono attacking bug buzz but that loses important neutral coverage esp on mega zard and moltres.
(idt psychic should ever rly be run, poison types are rare itd mainly be for tentacruel and opposing venomoth, but tentacruel cant beat venomoth anyway and sleep powder is enough for the mirror matchup while still having use outside of that. idt there is any reason to run bug buzz except on mono attacking sets, +1 venomoth's matchup against opposing psychics is pretty good anyway, eg kadabra is ohko'ed by sludge bomb after rocks, and a healthy venomoth can boost a second time against m-slowbro and +2 mega drain will usually ko after rocks and recover almost as much health as it took from psychic at +2 (m-slowbro without psychic j loses), or alternatively +1 mega drain does 60-71%. modest should be the primary nature, all timid rly does is outspeed jolteon at +1 instead of speed tie, and outspeed a few pokemon unboosted but none of those are rly pokemon it can set up on anyway.)
i see venomoth's 'power level' as comparable to the prominent megas, but ofc it does not take the mega slot. i think it may often be hard to justify not using it on a team, bc usually the worst case scenario is that u set up and heavily damage something before being ko'ed, and it is so threatening if not considered in teambuilding to the point of eg singlehandedly making electrode viable.
~ base form pinsir is far too low (eg relative to other base forms). pinsir can be very hard to deal with because the pokemon that can revenge kill mega-pinsir often struggle with its base form. for example, jolteon does 53-69% depending on nature with tbolt and is ohkoed back by eq, and dugtrio does 41-50% with rock slide and is usually ohko'ed back by x-scissor. while eg most fire types that beat base form pinsir, are outsped by the mega form and are always ohko'ed, except zard x which is usually ohko'ed by eq after rocks. pinsir should almost always be used with a second mega bc in many cases it may not want to mega evolve at all. with no mew the increased speed tier isnt as important and even in base form it outspeeds quite a bit and with fire type attacks not having very good coverage in this tier, resisted by all the waters and having relatively little super effective coverage, its base defensive typing is solid outside of the rocks weakness.
i feel like pinsir as a whole is maybe not valued enough, bc outside of a few rarer checks, unless a team has both zard/moltres and a fast electric or dugtrio, whichever form it lacks an obvious check to can become a big threat.
i agree bulk up and sd are both viable, bulk up can help protect esp base form pinsir from eg dugtrio, pika-s's floaty fall, and maybe dodrio.
~ a few smol things:
- moltres should have agility here. wisp is of very limited usefulness with kabutops being the only physical water and u turn is rly hard for it to use as always. agility means it beats dugtrio instead of losing to it, allows it to usually beat zard x lacking outrage or dragon tail, and helps somewhat with electrics etc. moltres's offensive typing isnt great in this meta and it is complete bait for omastar (has to switch out directly to prevent multiple boosts and game over), but if u are going to use it it should have agility. and i dont think zard y is viable in this meta at all, the 100 base speed doesnt even matter that much here and other than having, like, dragon pulse for at least some decent damage on omastar to prevent it from boosting twice, it has no benefit over moltres and loses agility on top of taking the mega slot. (if the mechanic of choosing mega evolution in battle were implemented, this could change as it could run air slash and dpulse and choose which mega evolution to use based on matchup.)
- bulk up hitmonlee seems a bit low, its speed is a bit lacking in this tier but its bulk is decent on both sides at +1 and absurd power matched only by m-pinsir. other than m-slowbro it doesnt have any true counters, but there are the fast air slash/drill peck users here that can revenge kill it, along with the prob less common fast psychic types
- idk if electabuzz can go somewhere? neutral natured ice punch almost ohko's dugtrio after rocks which may give it a niche over other electrics. low kick can be used for magneton and both golem forms, reflect could help so u dont have to overpredict dugtrio switching in, twave. could even run thunder punch for an all physical set with adamant nature which can sometimes ohko dugtrio as well as better damage against eg tentacruel but much worse vs omastar and m-slowbro, or thunder for para chance since grounds other than marowak may hesitate to switch in. maybe hard to justify over pika-s but ice punch does more to dugtrio than splishy splash and electabuzz does better against opposing electrics since its special bulk is decent. def feels more viable than eg magmar which im not sure what that is doing ranked with an sr weakness and bad offensive typing for this tier.